The Cincinnati Reds will welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to Great American Ball Park this evening to begin a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 6:40pm.
St. Louis Cardinals
|Tommy Edman – 2B||Jonathan India – 2B|
|Paul Goldschmidt – 1B||Tyler Stephenson – C|
|Dylan Carlson – RF||Nick Castellanos – RF|
|Nolan Arenado – 3B||Joey Votto – 1B|
|Tyler O’Neill – LF||Kyle Farmer – SS|
|Yadier Molina – C||Eugenio Suárez – 3B|
|Edmundo Sosa – SS||Tyler Naquin – CF|
|Harrison Bader – CF||Aristides Aquino – LF|
|Jon Lester – SP||Luis Castillo – SP|
Outside of that one disastrous start in Cleveland on August 9th, Luis Castillo’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last three months. Even accounting for that 8-run, 3.1 inning outing his ERA since the start of June is 2.74. Castillo has faced the Cardinals four times this season. Opening Day was a disaster. He faced them again in late April and allowed four runs in 5.0 innings. But he’s faced them twice since and has allowed just two earned runs over 13.0 combined innings.
The splits for Luis Castillo are similar, but different. Righties have hit .260/.313/.416 against him this season. Lefties have hit .251/.356/.380 against him this season. The difference in OPS is just 7 points, but righties get there with more power and far fewer walks. Lefties show less power but draw walks more than twice as often. He’s pitched significantly better at home. His OPS against is 76 points lower in Cincinnati and his ERA is 3.50 (5.07 on the road).
Pitch usage from 2021
It’s been a tough two seasons for Jon Lester. In 2020 his ERA was 5.12 in 12 starts. This season it’s 5.27 in 21 starts between Washington and St. Louis. His strikeout rate has fallen off the map in the last two years – he’s currently got the 2nd lowest strikeouts per 9-innings pitched in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 100 innings this year. While he’s not walking a ton of guys, he’s not been stingy with walks, either.
He hasn’t faced the Reds this season, and he only saw them once last year when he was with the Cubs. Lefties don’t get many chances to face him, but in 101 plate appearances this year they have hit .244/.283/.356 against him with five walks and 14 strikeouts. Righties have crushed him this season, posting a .327/.395/.535 line with 35 walks and 49 strikeouts in 358 plate appearances. Given that he’s been traded, it’s probably not worth a ton to look at his home and road splits, but if you wanted to – he’s pitched much worse on the road.
Pitch usage from 2021
When and Where
- Game time: 6:40pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 76°, cloudy, 20% chance of rain
News and Notes
Mike Moustakas Update
He was doing much better on Sunday. There was no update prior to the game today when David Bell spoke to the media as it was at the time when players were still arriving at the ballpark. Bell said he expects him to be available tonight off of the bench and hopefully in the lineup tomorrow.
NL Central Standings
Playoff odds via Fangraphs