The Cincinnati Reds just played the Milwaukee Brewers for the final time in the regular season. Milwaukee took two of the three games in the series. That leaves the Reds 8.5 games back of the Brewers with just 33 games left for Cincinnati. While not impossible, the math makes it virtually impossible for the Reds to catch them. Despite losing the series, though, the Reds are 2.0 games up in the wild card standings on the San Diego Padres and 4.5 games up on the Cardinals.

The math to win the division seems as improbable as the author of this article becoming a movie star. But the math to win a wild card spot is very much in favor of the Reds. Fangraphs currently has their playoff odds at 71.7%, with just a 1.3% chance of winning the division, but a 70.5% chance of taking a wild card spot. Only the Philadelphia Phillies has an easier remaining schedule than the Cincinnati Reds and it’s by the slimmest of margins. Cincinnati also has a 6.0 game lead over the Phillies for that final wild card spot. The Padres – the closest team to the Reds – have the toughest remaining schedule in baseball.

They play the games on the field rather than on paper for a reason. You never know what’s going to happen and sometimes you catch the right team at the wrong time. Look at Arizona, for example. They are 41 games UNDER .500 this season. But if you played them in April, July, or August, you saw a team that was playing .500. The D’Backs also went 8-48 in May and June. Still, Cincinnati’s schedule suggests that their road moving forward to a playoff birth should be easier than most.

Where’s Dauri Moreta?

For just about the entire season the Cincinnati Reds bullpen has been questionable at best. The team has gone through 32 pitchers this season, and 26 of them have been relievers. None of them, however, have been Dauri Moreta.

Early in the year it would have been understandable to not bring him up to the big leagues. He wasn’t on the 40-man roster and he was just beginning to get his feet wet in Double-A Chattanooga. With the minor league season beginning in May, the results on the field were delayed a bit when compared to where the big league club was at in their regular season, too.

But it’s now August 27th and Moreta, a 25-year-old reliever who throws in the mid-90’s and has routinely touched 97 and 98 in the second half of the season, has a 0.81 ERA this year. He last allowed an earned run on July 4th. He’s given up 24 hits and walked just eight batters in 44.1 innings. Oh, and he’s struck out 54 of the 163 hitters he has faced this season. Double oh – he’s had more infield fly balls than line drives allowed this season. Moreta’s been in Triple-A Louisville for nearly two months at this point. And he’s yet to give up an earned run there. His WHIP for the Bats is 0.57 through 17.2 innings.

The question needs to be asked: What is the organization waiting for?

43 Responses

  1. CFD3000

    Moreta seems like a no brainer now that Antone won’t be on the big club. If there was a spot for Tejay (albeit in a 9 man bullpen at the time) then surely there’s a spot for Moreta. And wouldn’t the Reds at least want the option to include him on a post-season roster? Yes, the schedule is favorable from here on out but again – best team on the field? What a concept. Make it so. Go Reds!

    • Alan Horn

      I am glad to see Schrock back up because he deserves it. Moreta should be up also. The Reds have done pretty good to have a record as good as they have with one hand tied behind their back because of roster management this season.

    • Alex Reds

      I think Moreta or Lodolo/Greene will be up with the Reds before the end of August to be eligible for the playoffs. The bullpen was rested and fresh, so they probably brought up a bat in Schrock temporarily to be more useful in the short term until an extra reliever was needed.

      • David

        Moreta is a reliever and is used to routine out of the bullpen. He should be the choice.

        I would really not like seeing Lodolo (who had some shoulder fatigue issues lately) or Hunter Greene (who throws hard but has never worked as a reliever) be brought up and thrown into a pennant chase. They’re both starters by training. The Reds could be asking for trouble.

      • Mark Moore

        Greene won’t get called up. He’s near his innings limit and I for one don’t want to see them screw it up. Lodolo might, but it will be September about the time L’ville is finished. So he may get some spot work, but that will just to have him taste the bigs.

  2. Indy Red Man

    Any update on Art Warren? I like his stuff alot! Unscored on in 14 of his last 15 appearances.

  3. John C.

    The Reds have claimed veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera off waivers from the Diamondbacks

    • old-school

      Someone break the news to Indy this isn’t good news for max Schrock.

      or Jose Berrero for that matter.

      • Jim Walker

        Or Aquino or Shogo? Depends if they think some combination of Stephenson or Barrero or Farmer could be credible day in, day out in LF

      • Jim Walker

        Just re-read what I typed and decided that it would be so Reds to have three catchers on the roster then end up hog tied for a catcher late in a game because all three had been on the field simultaneously and now there was no sub on the bench that fit to move one of the 2 remaining guys to C.

    • David

      Why Asdrubal? He was ok once, and had some power, but those days are gone.

      Are they going to send down Barrero to acquire an old player who is well past his prime?

      This makes no sense to me.

      • burtgummer01

        He’s instantly the best hitting infielder not named Votto or India
        Good move

      • old-school

        Not good news for Suarez either.
        Cabrera hits lefties well.
        This move gives better offense against lefty starters. Reds play against lefty starter Sunday and Happ/Lester against STL next week.

  4. burtgummer01

    If I’m not mistaken someone needs to come off the 26???
    I’ll vote for AA

    • west larry

      I hope it’s not Barrero or Schrock, but they have options, so they have to put up with the abuse of going back and from Cincy to Louisville.

  5. Votto4life

    I have been frustrated with Nick Krall and Davis Bell more than anyone. But they do have the team 11 games over .500 and in a position for the post season.

    I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for the rest of the season.

    • Roger Garrett

      Reds are 1 under against the Brewers and 15 over against the rest of the division and no reason not to continue.The Cubs,Bucs and Cards aren’t very good so it won’ matter much who we pitch or who we play cause we will beat them more times then we lose.Doubt seriously if there is a worse division but you play who you play.Krall or Bell have little to do with the other teams.I would even say if Krall had fixed the pen early and Bell would had played his best players more then he did then we may have been 20 games over but we won’t know.

      • Votto4life

        But is all speculation, what we do know for a fact. is the Reds are 11 games over .500 When was the last time that happened?

        I have followed the Reds for 50 years and in 47 of those years the season has ended in disappointment. The reason I still follow them is the other three.

        Sure, I would whether have the Reds 25 games up and ensured home field advantage throughout the play-offs. But, If the Reds end up in the playoffs or in the play in game or game 163 whatever you want to call it, I am going to appreciate that and give credit where credit is due.

  6. JA

    Line up for the opener in Miami (

    Naquin (cf)
    Schrock (lf)

    • Alan Horn

      I like the Schrock in LF move. Give it a shot for a while to see if it works.

    • Maloney63

      FINALLY Schrock in the lineup!! I am so tired of seeing Aquino and Shogo flailing away helplessly at the plate night after night!

  7. Charles Boisseau

    While the Reds stand a great chance to make the second wild card slot, I’m afraid our post season run will end quickly. The best teams are constructed not just to make it the playoffs but to beat others when they get there. Alas, the Reds are flawed, though I do love them, well, mostly. (The bullpen, not so much.) The Reds need a superstar reliever and overall improvements to the pitching staff, to get faster by adding stolen base capability and improve the anemic batting at third base. They don’t stack up well in a one-game playoff game against the likes of the Dodgers, a team with few glaring weaknesses.

    • Indy Red Man

      You never know though? That one year in the AL wildcard game KC was down 7-3 in the 8th vs the A’s/Jon Lester and came back and went on to the WS. If we play LA then 110% of the pressure would be on them.

    • Maloney63

      The Dodgers biggest weakness is their all season inability to get the free runner home from 2nd base in extra innings. I believe they are the worst in baseball. Other than that, no real weakness …unfortunately!

    • Votto4life

      I’m still not convinced it’s going to be the Dodgers in the WC game. I think it just as likely to be the Giants.

  8. Capt. Phreddie Pizzazz

    Hey Doug, last week Amazon Films announced that they will be shooting some movie scenes up in Wilmington. Are you the mystery star?

    On a serious note, what do you think the chances are that the Reds pick up a veteran reliever via waivers before the end of the month?

  9. RedsGettingBetter

    Asdrúbal is venezuelan as Suarez. During the offseason I remember I liked the idea of getting Asdrúbal as FA but of course the Reds FO thought in other things. He is a solid and useful player with large experience and is capable of hitting. Actually he has a line of .244/.324/.392 and 92 OPS+ , I think he should help in a platoon…

  10. Eddie

    If our reds team make to playoffs I will not be upset or anything if has ended quickly because this whole year dealing with crappy pen and all these injuries from short season last year. I be very content being a wc team even tho we are 8.5 back season ain’t over yet. So anything can happen at this point of time of the year mostly in baseball season. I like the carberra sorry if I didn’t spell it correctly. He should help us in playoffs which could see him starting at third in playoffs be platoon with moose and Suarez farmer at shortstop. It has been a fantastic year as a red fan . I guess most will think I’m fool for my opinion yet I’m a reds fan since Sean Casey was playing for us and seeing votto as a rookie. I am huge fan of votto but miss ken Griffey Jr and Adam Dunn playing together.

    • Doc

      Once the playoff teams are settled, everybody is 0-0. Maybe it’s better for the Reds to only have one game at the Dodgers to get by. They have had good games against stud pitchers this year. One good game against a Dodger stud moves them along.

      Reds had the best record in July. They have shown ability to play well over a month long stretch. It’s not impossible they could do that again for a few weeks, and with a better bullpen than they had in July. But…they have to get to the playoffs first and 33 more games will decide whether they do.

    • Votto4life

      I feel the same Eddie. If we lose in game 163 we would have played one more
      Than most teams. Also, I don’t this year was a fluke. Hopefully next year or the year after we will be in the position the Brewers are in now. Look how long it took for the BRM to finally win a championship.

  11. Jim Walker

    Moose back to the 10 day IL is also a possibility for the 26 man move.

    • west larry

      Wow! I didn’t see that coming. Maybe it’s Cabrer and Suarez at third?

    • greenmtred

      Maybe not after going 2 for 4 with a homer. Sam LeCure (whom I really like as a broadcaster) was saying that Moose is just now reaching the point where he’d be getting his timing and feel back.

  12. Randy in Chatt

    So you are saying you have a 1.3% chance of being a movie star?

  13. SOQ

    We have a good shot at the 2nd wild card and should get a chance to play a “Play IN” game to get into the playoffs. I don’t consider getting to the “Play IN” game as making the playoffs. If we win that game, THEN we’re in the Play offs. Still, no matter how this shakes out at the end of the season, You gotta be pumped about the Reds’ future. I haven’t been this excited about a crop of rookies since the Bruce/Votto years

    • Doc

      Call it whatever you wish, but it is not part of the regular season and you had to qualify through the regular season to get there.

      • SOQ

        I’ve been a Reds fan since 1962. It seems that in the last 10 years or so, Cincinnati fans have treated “making it to the playoffs” as our version of the World Series or Super Bowl. The Reds should still strive to take out the Brewers. Making it to the Play In game and losing feels meh to me. Jmo