The Reds offense had a big night against an NL Cy Young contender for the second time in 12 days. The Reds scored 4 runs off Corbin Burnes. He entered the game having only allowed 1 run in his last 3 starts (21.0 IP). Unfortunately for the Reds, Michael Lorenzen did not have it for the first time in 2021. The Brewers scored 4 runs in the 7th inning to erase the Reds 4-1 lead.
The lead being lost was not even the worst thing to happen to the Reds. Tejay Antone pitched for the first time since June 24th. He only threw a couple pitches and had to leave the game win an injury. The Reds are now 8.5 games back in the NL Central, but still hold the second wild card spot.
| Final | R | H | E |
| Milwaukee Brewers (77-49) | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (69-58) | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| W: Strickland (3-1) L: Lorenzen (0-1) S: Hader (27) | |||
| FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Biggest Play of the Game
Source: FanGraphs
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Mychal Givens allowing an RBI double to Omar Navarez with 2 outs in the 8th inning to give the Brewers a 5-4 lead. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 14.3% (from 73.2% to 87.5%).
Positives
Tyler Mahle pitched like the big time pitcher that he is. He had a long 31-pitch first inning, but he was able to survive with just allowing 1 run. Mahle completely dominated the Brewers after that. He finished the night with the following line: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K.
Mike Moustakas had a massive, much needed hit in the 4th inning. The Reds had the bases loaded with 0 outs. Moustakas got behind 1-2 on a pair of really bad swings at pitches outside of the zone. Moustakas fought back and ripped a RBI single. The Moose would double in his next at-bat against Burnes. Moustakas really needed this night.
Kyle Farmer drove in a big run off Corbin Burnes to push the lead to 2-0.
Negatives
Michael Lorenzen has been just incredible since coming back. He did not have it tonight. Mychal Givens retired 3 of the 4 batters that he faced, but the Brewers tied and took the lead in the process. It was a tough spot for Givens tonight.
You just have to feel completely awful for Tejay Antone. He was on the verge of turning into a star reliever and just has not been able to find a way to stay healthy.
Not so random thoughts………..
The Reds lack of a reliable left-handed reliever really showed tonight. The Brewers first three hitters in the lineup when the Reds bullpen came in were all left-handed. You don’t blame Bell for going Michael/Mychal, but it would have been a perfect spot for a good lefty reliever. You have to wonder if tonight will make the Reds think long and hard about using Lodolo in the bullpen sometime very soon.
Up Next:
Reds at Brewers
Wednesday, 8:10 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Luis Castillo (3.84 xERA) vs Brandon Woodruff (3.12 xERA)
Please put Barrero in the lineup. Somewhere, anywhere, it doesn’t matter. I’d prefer to see him at short, but it can be at third, left or center, it really doesn’t matter. Shogo is not hitting. Put Naquin in center and Barrero in left. Barrero’s too good of an athlete not to play somewhere now.
When the Reds go up against legit playoff teams, their bullpen shows how glaringly inferior it is to the pens of teams who are going to do damage in the postseason.
Maybe some roles will be carved out by October but it seems like whenever we start getting excited about one of the relievers, they fulfill that proverbial saying.
Both Givens, Lorenzen and Cessa have been roughed up this past week and we have to remember that in the postseason, good pitching always trumps good hitting.
I don’t see this Reds team being able to hit against the teams that will make up the final four in the NL: SF, LA, Milwaukee and I’ll give the nod to Atlanta for now. The first 3 teams mentioned have excellent starting pitching and solid pens.
Welcome to mlb. The rich get the A- guys. The Reds get B level guys at best. Toronto is not even in it and they have Brad Hand as their setup man.
The Reds had Raisel Iglesias. You keep him and the bullpen is much better than this. They let him go for nothing.
They let him go because they were listening to us. There was a great deal of sentiment here that Iglesias was a spoiled brat who wasn’t even that good and should be traded.
Joe P. Raisel wasn’t working here anymore. They tried to move him off the 3 outs in the ninth (with a lead) paradigm and it wrecked him and hurt the team. There really wasn’t any coming back from it.
Lorenzen had a 0.00 ERA since he has been back for around 20 innings. No one can sustain that.
Mid-Sept the Reds will be 8 out to Milw and 6-7 ahead of SD/Philly. Get fully tuned up for that playoff game. Use Garrett as a opener in a game or 2. Give him alot of work so he can get out Cody Bellinger or whoever. Or Wilson? Work in Barrero somewhere while Wink is out. Shogo was embarrassing at the plate tonite. Aquino can’t layoff bad sliders. Try somebody new.
Antone = Jordan Hicks with the Cards. Fun while it lasted, but most arms aren’t meant to throw 104 or throw hard sliders 70% of the time.
Agreed. Nothing wrong with some laboratory experimentation now
Neither of Aquino’s PAs were really poor but he can’t get over the hump. That PA to Strickland was 10 pitches from an 0-2 start and he had the best PA vs Hader but popped out at the end after 7 or 9 pitches. Guess I am saying if they have no alternative to Aquino except Akiyama just keep sending AA out there like they’ve done with Moose because at least AA looks like he might break through.
If you noticed he has also closed his stance more, and is having much better at bats. He’s not whiffing on 3 pitches like Shogo or Suarez. The difference between Suarez at bat in the ninth and Aquinos was night and day. Suarez never had a chance.
@jimbo44 > yeah I noticed the stance change. He is lot harder to strike out but I don’t think he has hit a fair ball that wasn’t a popup.
Is Cespedes a upgrade over Aquino? Hmm.
NO
Gotta assume we’ll be welcoming in Moreta tomorrow.
Why not? Idk why Bell needs 14 relievers, but maybe he finds lighting in a jar with somebody.
Overdue! Moreta deserves the call up
Agree that Shogo and Aquino aren’t providing much offense. Come back Winker! Feed Barero. Maximize all offense because we’re gonna need it with this BP.
Mahle getting kudos for a strong start but it is also true the seeds of the Reds demise were sown when he could not close out the 6th inning from 2 outs with nobody on and a 3 run lead. That led to Lorenzen being in early then tasked to come out and pitch a second inning which he had not done recently which led to Givens ending up coming in to a bases loaded situation with no out which was foreign to him.
Back to the 6th, if you are ahead by 3 runs with 2 outs and a man on 1st, you have to throw a strike and not walk the guy to bring the tying run to the plate. If you throw a strike and it gets nailed, that’s when you tip your cap to the other guys.
Also, note the Wong single in the 9th was rated as only a .380 xBA on Statcast. Moose couldn’t get to it (looked to be 1 or at most 2 steps but his lateral movement is still not good). If Moose plays that ball it is a force at 2B for sure and quite likely a double play. Reds are out of the inning with 0 or 1 run allowed in all probability.
So credit the Brewers for what they did but also recognize where the Reds fell short.
Lorenzen fell short … or you might say he fell off the high wire. Mahle did his job well enough, turning a lead over to the bullpen needing only to retire the #8, which Lorenzen did with 7 pitches and which left him with a high leverage PH-1-2 assignment in the 7th. Upon which he completely lost his balance and went the big splat. He’s the one high leverage guy you expect to transverse 2 innings and with Bell managing this one like a playoff game he had to have. Also the ninth time the bullpen has blown a lead from Mahle. Except for Sims, the bullpen was fully rested behind Lorenzen
I hear what you are saying but Mahle posted 2 outs, the #3 and #4 hitter on 4 pitches in the 6th. He has to finish that inning off that start to it.
I had the sequence reversed above. The walk came ahead of the single in the 6th. He was pitching to Narvaez with nobody on base and a 3 run lead and walked him on 5 pitches. Slider(B1)/ Fastball(S1) / Splitters(B2 & B3)/Fastball(B4).
Mahle and/ or Barnhart were thinking too much or being too cute on that sequence. From 1-1, or at the least 2-1, they have to pound with located fastballs, force him to put the ball in play or strike out trying and let the chips fall where they may.
This is just an eye memory test but game in and game out, I think a shortcoming of Barnhart is that he moves off of successful pitches too quickly and sticks with a pitch that misses too long. My theory is he worked with so many mediocre and worse pitchers so long he has trouble just trusting good stuff to get the job done even if the batter may be expecting that type of pitch. Sometimes change the location, not the pitch.
Lorenzen fell short … or you might say he fell off the high wire. Mahle did his job well enough, turning a lead over to the bullpen needing only to retire the #8, which Lorenzen did with 7 pitches and which left him with a high leverage PH-1-2 assignment in the 7th. Upon which he completely lost his balance and went the big splat. He’s the one high leverage guy you expect to transverse 2 innings and with Bell managing this one like a playoff game he had to have. Also the ninth time the bullpen has blown a lead from Mahle. Except for Sims, the bullpen was fully rested behind Lorenzen
tough loss, but at least the dodgers beat the padres.
Reds probably need the next two to still have any hope of the division, but at least the next five teams behind them in the wild card all lost. Still on track for that game. Hoping LA can overcome SF.
Padres, Cardinals, Phillies: “Here Reds, you can have this one.”
Reds: “Nah.”
Since Barrero was called up on Aug 16…
Farmer … 29 plate appearances (0.259 average)
Moustakas … 23 plate appearances (0.143 average)
Akiyama … 13 plate appearances (0.000 average)
Suarez … 10 plate appearances (0.000 average)
Barrero … 9 plate appearances (0.250 average)
If the Reds were actually serious about winning (which they claim to be, and sometimes seem to be), they wouldn’t be giving their best defender and best upside hitter of that group, the least amount of playing time.
Yes but…9 PA isn’t much of a sample. And both Farmer and Moustakas delivered offensively last night. Suarez didn’t play. I’d have to agree about Shogo though. He has been able to have good spurts offensively, but couldn’t come through last night.
It is better for a young, developing player to get repetitions in AAA than to languish on the bench in the show. Also, you go to war with the army you have. This is the army we have; play the best performers regardless of how much each individual is getting paid. Give Barrero some consistent reps at this level and see if he can contribute now. If not send him back to AAA and try him again later.
The one thing I’ll say about Barrero, is that it does him no good to come up hot and sit on the bench and completely cool off. He hasn’t mashed in his handful of PA since coming up, but it’s an adjustment to the major leagues. It’s an adjustment that’s best made by playing a lot. The guy playing in front of him at SS, Farmer, was awful at the plate for the first 3 months. But he was given time to make adjustments and improve. There are other guys (3B, Akiyama, Aquino) who have also been given chances but have not proven their worth. If the Reds wanted to see what Barrero can offer, they need to play him regularly and give him ample opportunity. One of the great things about Farmer is he has positional flexibility and could fill a different position that’s not producing. If the Reds wanted to just fill their bench they should have recalled Schrock or Lopez. Otherwise they are just wasting an opportunity by not allowing him to get going.
Cut Akiyama. Put Barrero in left field until Winker comes back. If you a good enough defender to play SS then you can play LF Aquino and Akiyama are batting .200 !
I hope if Jose Barrero is in the outfield it’s not a repeat of Nick Senzel.
I disagree. He’s had a full slate in minors this year, and I think the experiences – even through observation with a minor role – in a pennant race are more valuable than additional minor league ABs.
It’s also sending the message that the team comes first, which is critical – and somewhat foreign in recent Redspast – to talented rookies who are likely accustomed to the breaks slanted in their direction in their baseball careers. I have no proof, but do wonder if this has contributed to the recent weirdness of the handling of Senzel’s activation and subsequent injury revelation.
It’s also easy to think JB will hit like he did in 2021 minors and not like he did last year in his cup of coffee. But, if inserted into the regular role – over a more established veteran – and he fails again it could prove detrimental to his development.
I’ll be shocked if he isn’t given a chance to win the starting shortstop position in spring training, by this very Red’s ownership/management group.
If Moose continues to knock the rust off and Winker comes back soon, and we don’t have this conversation……unless he can pitch in relief.
This one got away. Now win two and take the series.
Reds have to win a game against the Brewers leading 4-1 in the 7th. Lorenzen was due for a bad outing, just not sure why you pitch a guy 3/4 days when the rest of the pen is rested. Mahle pitched well on road again in a big game.He beat Scherzer earlier this year and should have got the W against Burnes.
That said, Aristides Aquino is hitting .192 with a 34%K rate since the start of 2020. He’s 8-57 in August with 2 home runs. Shogo has a wRC+ of 51 for the year. He’s hitting .190 since the All star break. The Winker injury is giving Aquino and Shogo regular playing time and larger sample sizes and neither one is doing anything.
What happens when Castellanos leaves? The cupboard is bare for outfielders in AAA and AA.
Maybe why they have good athletes like Stephenson and Barrero who have never played OF professionally out early chasing flyballs before and during batting practice? It has worked out really well for Nick Senzel hasn’t it.
This just in, the Brewers are good. I agree with Jim, mahle has to close out the 6th inning. It’s the bottom of the lineup and he has to get it done if he wants to be a top starter for us. Loren zen is a good reliever, but he has his weaknesses. Need a lefty in bullpen to step up. Go Reds, keep grinding.
Everyone, the key to this game was pitching to Narvaez with the go ahead run on 2nd, first base open, 2 outs, and a right handed batter on deck that had shown nothing (and Urias struck out on 3 pitches after Narvaez double). I turned to my son when they did not walk Narvaez and told him they lost. Narvaez KILLS us and is such a clutch hitter against us (so is Pina – who hits .200, but .400 against us). If I can recognize this (and not get paid for it) why cannot Bell. It is the little situational aspects to the game that he misses. I am not a big Bell hater, but, come on this is a playoff stretch not the first, second month of the season. Done ranting, thanks for listening! 🙂
Totally agree. Noticed the same thing.
Good point. Maybe Bell was like me, so shell shocked by that point he missed it? Only I am just an guy sitting at home watching and he is…..
clueless sometimes! (to finish your statement) I don’t think Tony Larusa, Sparky, and all the other great ones were ever shell shocked, do your job!
Anyone notice that…
…Lorenzen didn’t have his 98 heater? (let alone any command)
…Givens kept throwing fastballs to Yelich until he timed one for a well-hit sac fly?
…Givens kept throwing changeups to Garcia until he timed one for a well-hit sac fly?
The pitch Lorenzen was throwing high in and just above the zone in the 6th was at 96 and dropped off to 92 in the 7th. Statcast and Gameday called it a 4 seamer in the 6th and a cutter in the 7th but location and action looked the same. Wonder if they just changed the pitch notation because of the velocity change?
You’re right: Lorenzen’s velocity looked better in the 6th than in the 7th.
I kept waiting for him to blow a 98 heater past a swinging batter in the 7th. It didn’t happen.
When a pitcher with a long history of arm injuries loses command and loses velocity, it sets off my warning signal.
You’re making yourself suspect. Barrero has 11 PA and a .222 avg.
Very disheartening to lose Antone. Feel for the guy after working so hard to get back. Losing Antone hurts more than losing the individual game. Was feeling pretty good up until that dreadful 7th. There will be nights relievers don’t have it, it’s just unfortunate it happened tonight. Try to rally tomorrow.
Have to wonder if it was such a smart idea to inject an experimental and non approved drug like PRP into a key players elbow. Clearly there is an issue with with his UCL which was repaired three year four years ago. Sadly this might end up with another TJ surgery.
I also fear he may head back under the knife.
I have no medical experience but it seems that the Reds have exercised poor judgement when it comes to dealing with injuries with Senzel and now Antone. I saw Day interviewing Antone and he asked him about facing the stress of a big game moment and his confidence in his arm it seemed prescient to say the least. Also Hunter Green wasted a lot of time rehabbing from a strained UCL and then had to have Tommy John anyway. Who knows maybe just bad luck. The good new is the Reds 3rd basement had multiple hits in a game, when is the last time that happened?
7th inning, first and second nobody out, full count. Barnhart calls for an offspeed pitch from a clearly struggling Lorenzen.
Enter Givens. Barnhart calls for only fastballs until Givens misses over the heart of the plate and nearly splits the outfielders for a bases clearing hit. Next batter Garcia gets only changeups until he times on enough to hit a fly ball to score another run.
This mindless pitch calling by Barnhart killed the team’s chances to hold the lead. If this part of his game is the justification for his disproportionate playing time then the calculus is deeply flawed…..and that’s ignoring his .748 OPS 1.0 WAR compared to our splendid rookie who sports an .826 OPS and 1.9 WAR.
Free Tyler Stephenson.
Thank you since I always get pounded for suggesting this sometimes happens.
+1000
I’m convinced that if Givens had thrown Yelich a changeup on the pitch he hit for a sac fly, Yelich would have swung from his heels and missed by a mile.
I’m convinced that if Givens had thrown Garcia high heat on the pitch he hit for a sac fly, Garcia never would have caught up to it.
Both batters timed Givens and won.
Absolute head scratcher when I was watching on gameday. I started thinking, does Givens only have a fastball?
Then I saw the change ups and the result and just couldn’t believe my eyes that neither Barnhart called it or Givens shook him off to throw the same 4-5 pitches to each batter.
Sometime you fool batters by throwing those consecutive fastballs when your ahead and they think they’re getting a change up. But 5 in a row?
I really think this game was lost on Lorenzen’s meltdown, followed closely by Givens pitching sequence.
Sometimes you just have to hand it to the opposing team. Brewers are a scrappy team with a never say die attitude. They remind me of the Reds in a lot of ways. They have the team that could win it all IF they stay healthy. The Reds need these next two. The Brewers head out on a road trip that has them in SF for 4. The losses to the Brewers I can deal with. I dont despise them like I do the Cubs or Cardinals. Just dont make it a habit.
It would be unwise to only see the Padres as a threat to the 2nd wild card. Baseball is funny. Remember when the Cards were 8 or 9 games back entering September the last time they won the World Series?
Also, Santillan has been pretty solid in a relief role, especially if he only pitches one inning. Why is he not being used a bit more frequently?
I agree. I am just as concerned about the Cardinals as I am the Padres at this point.
It’s going to be a great finish I think. I am really happy the Reds are going to be a part of it.
Our pen is much much better and all will bounce back.Bull pen guys give up runs and they will again.Sims up 5-0 the other night gives up a 3 run bomb and its a close game.Only issue I ever have with these things is because of the 3 batter rule its a good idea to have guys warming up.Now I know I hear well if they warm up its still like pitching so have to watch that also.All I am saying is with so few games left and every one so important you have to do things differently.I am not blaming Bell or Mikey or Givens I am just saying lessons learned and move on.As far a lefty is concerned we will need somebody as some point to come in and get a key lefty hitter out.So if we don’t trust a guy to do that we better find one.Reds are just so use to having the bubble being busted by the pen they will bounce back
Was anyone else disappointed with Sadak’s return? Jim Day as the play by play guy was so much better. Sadak just prattles on with mindless, endless statistics and cannot shut up. You don’t need to say something after every pitch. JD did a fine job and to me it was much more enjoyable to listen to. When Sadak starts rambling I just mute The TV now.
For only a couple bucks/mo. I now get mlb audio. Not thrilled w/Thrall anymore either. Lot of times I just listen to the other team feed.
For those who’ve cried for relievers to come back a second inning, I think this game illustrates the risks of doing so. Even for our best relievers. Thankfully, Bell has better options to avoid it. Even then, relievers aren’t perfect like we found out last night. Honestly, it feels good that it’s the first time in a while that the BP blew a game. Instead of the 3 games a week average of the past 2 months.
Is anyone else tired of the “slap at the ball” swing from Akiyama that either results in a strikeout or weak grounder or flyball!? Surely we have better bats on the bench. He does offer defensive skills, but his plate appearances are cringeworthy.
I have to agree with you on that. His at bats last night were painful to watch.