The Cincinnati Reds offense got a solo home run from Tyler Naquin in the second inning as they lost to the Chicago Cubs for the second consecutive day while scoring just one run.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs (54-69) |
7 | 12 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (65-57) |
1 | 6 | 1 |
| W: Rodriguez (1-2) L: Mahle (10-4) |
|||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Offense
Facing a 5-0 deficit before taking the plate in the 2nd inning, Tyler Naquin got the Reds on the board with his 15th homer of the season – a solo shot to the bullpen in center. In the 3rd inning Joey Votto hit a ground-rule double with one out. Nick Castellanos just missed a double of his own on a foul ball before he hit a soft line drive at second base where David Bote was easily able to step on the bag to double off Votto and end the inning.
In the 4th inning the Reds got a pair of 2-out baserunners after a Tyler Naquin single and Jose Barrero was hit by a pitch. They couldn’t cash in on either of those and the Cubs held onto a 5-1 lead. A pitching change in the 5th brought Manuel Rodriguez to the mound and he made quick work of the Reds, throwing just nine pitches while picking up two strikeouts. It was more of the same after that as the offense just couldn’t get going.
After the Cubs padded their lead with a run, the Reds entered the 9th inning needing a touchdown to tie the game up and the extra point to win it. After two strikeouts to begin the inning Jose Barrero doubled – his first big league extra-base hit – to cap off a day where he had two hits and was also hit by a pitch. But Joe Burrow didn’t come down the road and throw the touchdown pass that the Reds needed to keep the game going as Tucker Barnhart struck out to end the game.
The Pitching
Ian Happ continues to kill the Cincinnati Reds and in the 1st inning he crushed a 427-foot home run to give the Cubs a 1-0 lead. In the next inning it was Michael Hermosillo who got in on the home run derby as he crushed a 2-run homer to make it 3-0. That wasn’t all the Cubs would get that inning as Mahle also gave up an RBI single to Rafael Ortega and an RBI double to Frank Schwindel and it was 5-0 before the Reds came to the plate in the 2nd.
Tyler Mahle locked in from there for the most part and fired off three scoreless innings in a row. Jeff Hoffman took over in the 6th and promptly gave up a solo home run that put Chicago up 6-1. It was the only run he would allow in 2.0 innings. Sean Doolittle threw a perfect inning with two strikeouts in the 8th. Justin Wilson took over in the 9th inning. It didn’t start out great as he walked the first two batters of the inning, but got help on a fantastic double play started by a glove flip from Jose Barrero to Jonathan India. Matt Duffy followed with an RBI bunt single to make it a 7-1 game as the old saying that walks will haunt once again proved to be right.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds
Thursday August 19, 7:10pm
TBA vs Luis Castillo (6-12, 4.51 ERA)
I can’t blame the manager for this. The Reds offense should be embarrassed beyond words and hopefully respond by sweeping the Marlins
Mahle should be embarrassed as well. Just when you think he’s clicking and got it going, he gets bombed. Seemingly every pitch the first couple of innings was thigh-high and center of the plate.
THis was an embarrassing loss in my books.
Why bat Aquino so high in the order when he’s hitting terribly. A HR once every so many games and that’s about it. He’s had his chance in my book. About time to let him go or try to trade him for whatever we can get. ‘
The ONLY positive to this game was seeing Barrero play and get a couple of hits on get on base.
Mahle’s home vs road performance dictates he should not pitch at GABP. However he has been very good on the road.
I’d much rather see Shrock than Aquino on the roster. Also, goes without saying that we need a healthy Winker in the lineup.
We seemed listless the last two games.
India and Barrero at the top of the lineup and Moustskas out of the lineup. Any other moves?
In the offseason I’d like to see room made to have Senzel as the regular third baseman. That will be quite an infield in 22 with Senzel, Barrero, India, and Tyler Stephenson occasionally resting Votto at first base. The FO should try to trade for a fast, good hitting centerfielder. Suarez, The Moose, and Shogo should be traded, if possible.
Tyler catching is still part of the infield, as well.
While I agree with those moves for next season, I was looking for changes they can make to the lineup now.
I’ll keep pounding this drum:
I STILL think Winker is the 1B of the future. He has the body of a 1B, he’s left-handed, he’s honestly too slow to play the OF, and his bat will play at 1B.
The infield of
1B Winker
2B India
SS Barrero
3B Senzel
C Stephenson
Would be truly one of the best in baseball.
Of course, the Reds would have to fill out the outfield as well, they have a few OF in the minors, but they can supplement that with FA signings/trades as needed. It seems easier to land a decent OF than it is to land a decent IF. Aquino may or may not be part of the OF solution.
@CBJ
That would be a nice infield
Everyone wants Senzel to be the super hero and save the team.. Sorry to wake many of your up but he has not done really anything at the major league level consistently. He is still an unproven player. I think Suarez has been pretty terrible this year and Moose looks terrible in general and at the plate too. I watched him a lot with the Brewers also and he has never looked so overweight.
I don’t have a solution unfortunately to the 3b issues but people need to stop with the Senzel saving us stuff until he actually proves he can stay healthy longer than a few months and show us the numbers to at the major league level.
Thank you jay the the red for identifying your self as a senzel
Hater
This site is full of ex winker haters and ex india haters
You are just wrong but thats ok
Jay the Red
Right him down with all other idiot young player hater idiots
Agree with JayTheRed. You better have a backup plan at 3rd. It’s to bad the kid has been injured so much. Hopefully he can come up be really good and stay healthy. But he hasn’t been able to do that up to this point. There have been a lot of comments making it sound like when he gets back up here things are magically going to change. This is not a triple crown, gold glove winner your waiting for.
I think we can all agree Senzel can at least hit .175, if he were inserted at 3B. The power would go down, but the ABs would be of better quality, and he would provide much needed speed
I’d consider more IL for Moustakas. It might take a full offseason of full body PT just to recover fundamental strength, balance and movement skills integrity lost due to the recovery process for plantar fasciitis. Kind of like he’s in a different body now and was already in that age range where steep performance decline kicks in, especially for a heavier athlete. It’s not like they can’t replace what he’s giving them right now with what’s already on the 26
I agree.
Took Ryan Zimmerman a whole year to get back from his planar fasciitis.
JayTheRed, you should be ashamed of having a logical opinion. Thank you Old-school for pointing this out. If you check the comments further down Os put out another comment. It must be a Senzel relative.
I agree with you. The Reds really need to move Suarez, Moose, Shogo and Gray over the winter. Mahle should be at the back end of the rotation.
I like Tucker Barnhart but I would not pick up his option. The money saved can be used elsewhere.
The Reds should sign/extend Castellanos, Lorenzen, Givens and Miley.
The Reds don’t have to pursue free agents this winter, just keep the best of what they already have.
With Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, Barrero, Senzel, Winker, India and Stephenson the Reds have the nucleus of a very young and exciting team.
The future is finally bright for this franchise. I do question though whether David Bell is the right manager moving forward.
Business day special that only saw one team show up and handle their business.
Oh well. You aren’t going to win them all. Fix things tomorrow.
Well-crafted parallel sentence, Sir!
Can Shogo be optioned ?
No. It’s in his contract according to other’s that have commented before.
I like the idea of seeing if NPL will take him back? doubtful though
The legacy of Dick Williams
Puig, Wood, Kemp (and Farmer yay!)
Moustakas
Akiyama
and so much more. Those are some highlights
No.
Only watched sporadically. This was one to miss. Another hard loss and I hope it strengthens the resolve of the guys to sweep the Fishies. That would take the bad taste out of our mouths.
Wipe this day off the books and move ahead.
Two games , two home runs , just two runs, two embarrassing losses… could we explain how the Reds after scored 14 runs with 14 hits in first game no hit at all in the next two against the same staff? it was completely unexpected and crazy …Before this series began I was very optimistic about winning it at least, but I crashed… I don’t know what will the team performance against Miami but now i stay reserved about that…
They play 162 baseball games for a reason: Even really bad baseball teams win 60 games. Even really good ones lose 60 games. Great teams lose to terrible teams often enough. You need to play a ton of games to truly be able to separate the teams.
Exactly and there are 40 more which will tell the story for this year and I’m good with that.
Yeah, every time someone has brought up how easy the last part of the schedule is, I practically cringe. That means absolutely nothing, as the results of the past couple days show. There are no guarantees. All the teams in MLB are professional baseball clubs. Some are better than others, sure, and some are much better. But even the worst teams are capable of beating the best teams from time to time, and hot/cold streaks for both good and bad are part of the game. That’s why they play the games on a field and not on paper or with a computer. So, I don’t care what their schedule is like over the next 6 weeks– Just Win!
Great comment. I can’t stand when the posters say those things either. You play the game against 1 team that day. You never should say the Reds are going 6-1 the next 7 games.
Fans gonna fan no matter what though.
As I said The Winker injury is the beginning of the end
TBA likely to throw a shut out tomorrow night.
Their best lineup that won’t ever be played this year.
India 2B
Winker LF
Castellanos RF
Votto 1B
Stephenson C
Senzel CF
Farmer 3B
Barrero SS
Sad. Nice post though, and I would have to agree. That lineup should be out there every day, injuries aside. And we won’t see it once.
From Reds standpoint, contracts dictate playing time, sigh.
+1,000
I can argue Alejo in CF or 3B, but this is fine, too. Having a bat to ball switch hitter like Lopez as a every day player could dramatically change this lineup.
I have know Idea who to play in left until Winker returns. Senzel must really not be ready because Shogo and Aquino are not getting it done. It doesn’t help that Castlennos is struggling and Votto has cooled off let alone Moose and Suarez struggling. This team is going the wrong way. They need a huge game from Castillo tomorrow, but good gosh he has 12 losses. Oh well, only 40 games to go. The fact is since the all star break this team has by and large been average at best, not playoff ready.
Senzel is ready but team is reluctant to part ways with Shogo because of $$$ and Aquino because he has no options (although he has little value either).
Don’t know what to say about back to back home losses where we scored 1 run in each game and against the Cubs losers of 12 straight.Guess we move on cause we have no other choice but boy oh boy.Barrero looked good in the field I’m told and had 2 hits so I guess he goes back to getting coffee and doughnuts for a week or so.Moose obviously came back to soon or is playing hurt or both.Farmer gets a much needed day off and this team could be just running out of gas.Bell will need to do his best job of managing from here on in so lets see what he’s got.Krall needs to get rid of one those relievers that make an appearance once a series and get Senzel up here pronto.Bell needs to man up to Bob and Krall and tell them the best players play from here on in less we have no chance for the post season.Play the young guys at every position possible and play them every day and use the money guys to give them a break.
Positives: Barrero looks as advertised. Athletic, strong, great defender, and doesn’t seem over-powered at the plate like he was last year. He should have been the SS 6 weeks ago.
Negatives: we cannot play competitive baseball with absolutely no offense from third base. Management simply has to do something to address this problem. But …. they won’t.
We have players that can be productive at 3B. But the team refuses to field the best team in a pennant race. It doesn’t get more pitiful from any FO than that.
Absolutely. It is past time to address the Black Hole that 3B has become. And salaries/player options aside, there are other alternatives. Try them. Another issue that needs to be looked at is outfield — with Nick still not on top of his game and Winker out, no one out there is scaring anybody offensively or defensively.
Half joking: Maybe next year, we should go after Ian Happ as our CF. He seems to like it here….
It would be helpful to have consistent offense from 3rd base, but we have certainly played competitive baseball all season without it.
Top 5 hitters in the lineup go 1 for 19 with 7 Ks. I guess they’d rather have been at home watching reruns of Knight Rider like I did!
1.) Jesse Winker is a crucial part of this offense. Btw- righties pitch 70+ % of the time.
2.) 3b is a gaping infected wound with draining pus
3.) Jose Barrero and Jon india are the SS 2b double play combo for a decade. Why is that so hard to just do now bellkrall?
4.) mahle at home isnt good and its reached statistical significance
5.) Aquino and Akiyama are exposing themselves. Nick Senzel – stay strong buddy- you will be a Red longer than bellkrall will.
I generally agree with what you said but for one point – I don’t believe India is our second baseman for the next decade. Don’t get me wrong – he’s a terrific young player. But how about this idea: Mr McClain might well be our second baseman for the next decade. Mr India may be a better fit long-term at 3B. He did pretty well there as a Gator.
If McClain is as advertised, we would have two slick-fielding, solid hitting middle infielders AND a terrific third baseman. How fun would that be??
RE:
1) he is sorely missed
2) at this point my diagnosis is actually unilateral neglect (a post-stroke symptom) of 3B by the front office. Or if you want to say a wound, it’s necrotic
3) +999
4) this is so interesting. Has to be mental, right? Wonder what the breakdown is
5) I would like to see Senzel stay–the sports soap operas are trying to say that there will be a “divorce”
Still trying to figure out the Senzel fascination. Naquin has had a better yr. than Senzel has ever had. It looks like he’s hurt AGAIN.
As I watch the games from here in Missouri I look at the crowds and am surprised how small the crowds are. However, when you think about why should people pay a lot of money to watch a team that frankly doesn’t do all it can do to win. The best players are not playing or even on the team. Senzel has to be better than Shogo and Aquino, he could hardly be worse and why is Moose or Suarez playing third. Farmer at third Barrero at short. As somebody else all ready sadly mentioned this team could simply be running out of gas. We will see.
“Senzel has to be better than Shogo and Aquino”
Except he hasn’t been better then AA. Senzel has 1 hr in 146 at-bats this year. AA is better then RLN wants to give him credit for.
Aquino has a better career OPS and a better OPS than Senzel this year.
I hope Senzel and the Reds get whatever is going on between them straightened out; and, he becomes a long term producer at the levels suggested by his ranking in the draft.
However, there is no reason to believe that right now, in the middle of this playoff race is the time Senzel will suddenly flip the page and be that guy in 2021.
His manager at AAA said the day that he was activated and optioned that he did not appear to be 100%, had a “slight favoring” of his injured knee, and needed to work on some things to be truly ready.
https://theathletic.com/2772174/2021/08/16/c-notes-nick-senzel-is-ready-to-play-but-he-isnt-coming-to-the-majors-to-help/
The timing of all this and why Senzel was activated and optioned instead of remaining on the IL is goofy and confusing but it is what it is.
Jim,
I guess you activate and option rather than extend his DL in case you absolutely need him, probably based on injuries.
Embarrising loss. Trade Mahle in the Offseason. Will fetch a good return but cannot pitch half of his games in his home ballpark. Borrero impressed. SHould find a spot for him tomorrow as well. Reds need to write thank you cards to the Rockies who have kept this from being much worse then it could be
Yes we have gotten really lucky how badly the Padres have been playing lately. I really believe that our only shot is at the wild card. We are not going to win every game and even bad teams are going to beat us but if we could just win each series that would go a long way into letting us have a shot at the playoffs.
I checked the remaining schedule. If Bell stays with the current rotation, 4 of the next 5 starts for Tyler Mahle will be on the road. The 1 home start of the 5 will be on September 4th against the Detroit Tigers. So hopefully Mahle’s performance on the road stays in line with what it has been so far this year. Also, with exactly 40 games remaining, the 5 starters would each get 8 starts, although it wouldn’t surprise me if somebody other than 5 current starters gets a start or two.
That’s really interesting and might even have been part of the calculation involved with the rotation manipulations coming out of the all star break?
Really confused on folks’ opinions on Senzel being so important. Not really sure what he has done to prove anything. Forget staying healthy, he hasn’t produced when he has been.
2020 was 60 games
He had covid infection well over half the time. Throw out 2020
2019 was the hitting coach from the land of misfit toys who destroyed everyone’s swing.
2018 and before senzel was the best young hitter in baseball
Reds did well with Winker and India and trusting the hit tool
Senzel has the hit tool
He will be healthy
Stay strong Nick!
We are starting the LilSenzi fanclub!
I’m in lol
The Force is strong in this young Jedi. Have patience.
Rockies on top of Padres 7-4 after 6. Reds again blew a chance to move into 2nd WC spot.
Reds needed to play at .607 clip to reach 90 wins at 106 game mark. Now at .563.
Oh, and another thing: Barrero needs to start at SS. Every day.
Let’s stop messing around, Reds! Put the best players you have on the freakin’ field.
If there is a glimmer of a bright spot lately, it is that Naquin’s bat has seemed to wake up somewhat. The hole at 3B is killing the offense. I will keep saying it until they do something about it. Mahle just had an awful day. Hopefully, by Sept 1 , we will have Winker back, Barreo at SS and Farmer, Lopez or Schrock at 3B.
Not sure Senzel is healthy. Hasn’t been in the lineup this week. Can’t see why Hernandez is getting PT in Louisville. Cedrola should be promoted and Hernandez sent down to the Lookouts.
Senzel did not have to report to play, by rule, until today. Can’t play him if he’s not there.
That said, he’s not in the lineup tonight, either….
That is curious and i suppose spawns the “divorce” talk
Is that a Reds thing or a Senzel thing
Nick Senzel was #2 overall pick
Very important player
Reds could fix this if senzel is healthy and put him in CF because hes actually the best CF in the franchise
Senzel probably making up a phantom injury. Can’t say I blame him. Reds are playing a couple inferior players every game.
Did not play to time allowed to report, then today all of the sudden maybe his knee hurts. I’d be tempted to do the same thing.
If I had to bet I’d say Senzel is not healthy in his knee and won’t be the rest of the year.
I’m ok with taking it easy for Senzel this season so he can really get healthy.
I just would hate for them to sell him short in the future.
Conspiracy hat on: The Reds were paying Senzel MLB salary while on 60-day IL. Senzel was also earning service time (don’t think that’s a huge factor). The Reds activate him earlier than they needed to. I wonder if they made this move so they could IL him in the minors, avoid paying him ML money and from accruing service time. With as cheap as the Reds have shown to be, I honestly can’t say I’d put it past them. It’d be a horrible look for the Reds though, so I hope it’s not the case.
its logical… fits the facts. Not saying no
The service time thing makes sense actually. Right now he’d be Super Two. His fractional year is 150 days, with 172 (by rule) being a full year. If they whittle his fractional year down, he gets bumped from Super Two. There’s no way the Reds can really get an extra year, but they can bump him from Super Two.
Why else would the Reds activate him early? Makes no sense really.
If this is true it adds more to the list of “ways the Reds have jerked around with Nick Senzel”
“more than the bridle on a stubborn mule”
That one was for Richard Fitch
@Hype, I think they already have the “extra” year. That’s what the 150 days represent. It just wasn’t quite as obvious as with Kris Bryant in part because of the COVID situation. Senzel’s full year represents what everybody got in the 2020 COVID deal. The 150 days fractional (against 172 required) is his 2019 partial year.
I put him at 135-140 days for this year if he gets no more time. That would make him 2.115-120 which is a gray area. Plus, with Barrero up now, I find it hard to figure who they will use for the 1 expanded September slot which cannot be a pitcher, especially if Winker stays on the IL past 1 Sept.
I agree – Senzel is our best CF.
How sad is it that an All American 3B is our best option in CF??
If Senzel were to be suddenly gone (and I absolutely hope that does NOT happen) what are the organization’s options for CF going forward?? That’s a pretty important position. You can’t just stick anyone out there and expect to play winning baseball. You need an athlete who can run, catch the ball, and throw. Remember playing Winker there in the past?? Good grief.
How sad is it that lance Mccalister and Doug gray are the only 2 “journalists “ reporting nick senzel isnt playing
What does that say about mark sheldon and bobby and c trent ???
They clearly drink the Castellini kool aid and suck from the the Reds information nipple
Kudos to Doug and Lance
Doug needs to join 1360 chad brendel bearcats top guy as the Reds top info guy because he is
1530… oops
Doug chad mo tony pike
Make it happen
WHY is everyone jumping off the Eugenio Suarez bandwagon? Do you REALLY think Senzel will have a better career? NOT I! He has already shown his inability to stay off of the IL! GO REDS!!
Dude, get real! There IS NO bandwagon, the wheels have fallen off of El Tornillo de Corcho’s wagon.
.172/.258/.372.
ONE HUNDRED FORTY-FOUR strikeouts (31% of PA’s).
He is toast.
The question of who will have a better career isn’t actually relevant. Suarez has a season with 49 jacks, and I wouldn’t expect that of Senzel, or anyone else. No matter what else he does, or doesn’t do, no one can take that away from Suarez. There aren’t a whole lot of people who can say “I hit 49 bombs in one year of Major League Baseball.”
The real question is which player is a better option right now. And the answer to that is “Nick . All day. Every day. Twice on Sunday’s.”
Agreed. If Senzel, injury free, does not do it at third base for the Reds, he’ll do it for another team. The guy has the talent.
Senzel should be playing 3B.
Inciarte, CF. He is hitting .407/.429/.519 at L’ville in 7 games. At 30 years old he can still catch flies with the best of them.
Alejo Lopez should be on the active squad. .337/.421/.475.
Reiver Sanmartin.
Brandon Finnegan.
Dauri Moreta.
Of course, Tejay Antone.
“Put the best players you have on the freakin’ field.”
Make it happen Nick Krall.
“I can neither confirm nor deny that I may or may not be telling the truth about our roster.”
–Nick Krall
+500
Sad Diego just kept pace with the locals, falling 5-7 to the Rockies
Now limping back home to face the Phillies then Dodgers for 3 each. Readjusting from the thin air FX from Colorado altitude can cause an observable ‘hangover’ effect on both pitchers and hitters. Arrieta and his long reliever allowed 5 through 5 innings and their featured bullpen strength continues to absorb high innings: https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/bullpen-usage.php?team=SD
Yes! The Padres seem to be in free fall-starting pitching consistently bad lately. I have mixed feelings about the dirtybird/brewers game later tonight. I really want to keep from falling further behind the brewers, as the wild card play in game is really difficult, as the reds found out last year. let the birds win a couple from the brewers. As much as I hate routing for St. Louis, I want to stay as close to the brewers as possible. The reds really need to take 3 of 4 from the Marlins.
The remainder of the Padres’ schedule is just simply torturous for them. The Reds could benefit from doggedly locking sight now on first place and not looking back https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/teams/SD/san-diego-padres/schedule/regular/
Uninspiring and disappointing series. Hopefully playing the Marlins will net a better result. At least we’re not losing ground to the Padres. I see overtaking the 2nd wild card as our only realistic opportunity at the playoffs.
I think this series illustrates why they play the games and future strength of schedules isn’t a guarantee. Curious on the whole Senzel issue, but overall one positive of this series is that Hembree has been replaced by Santillan BEFORE it cost them another game. After seeing how it’s taking Casty a bit of time to get back in the groove, I’m giving Moose a bit longer of a leash. I hope the team (collectively) starts committing to hitting the other way when down in the count, that seems to lead to crooked innings rather than the swing for the fences temptation that has crept back in the last couple of games.
Watched a portion of the Rockies game… rockies did not have best pitchers out there. Flashes of brilliance from the padres on occasion but overall looked unorginized. Remember 2011 and teh Boston red sox collapse….. could be in for something similar.
Regarding Reds activating Senzel early, optioning him, and possible service clock manipulation…..
Seems Reds “might be” trying to bump Senzel from Super Two status, in which he’d be Arb1 eligible this winter and be eligible for 4 trips thru Arb instead of 3.
Extrapolating further, Super Two is typically around 2 years, 130 days MLB service time (actual days determined by calculation of eligibles each year). Reds would have to get Senzel under that if their intentions are to remove him from Super Two status.
If Senzel remained on MLB roster, he’d have 2/150 at the end of the season. There are approx 187 days in a MLB season, but only 172 are required for a service year. Therefore, Senzel would need to be in minors more than 35 days (20 to get to 130, plus 15 to make up diff in service year versus MLB days in year). So maybe they activated him early, so they could get that service clock stopped? And if it does indeed play out, he will not be Arb1 eligible this offseason.
Please Krall, tell me this is not the case.
if it is, welcome to the “its a business,” portion of the exercise
Why shouldn’t the front office do this? Seems both smart and prudent, from a business perspective. Plus they have a legitimate baseball reason……it’s not like Senzel has established himself yet past the options on the big league team? His potential, yes. His performance, nope. It’s further challenged by the fact that they would have likely lost AA to make room for Senzel (pre-Winker injury.)
I still have high hopes for him, but stand behind the organizational posturing – if true – that he needs to earn it and not be given it due to his draft status. Seems like there is more to the story, whether it be injury related or friction between ownership/player-agent.
Because Senzel is better than other OFs on the ML roster so they’re doing it while weakening the MLB team in a pennant chase. That and it’s just plain dirty.
Senzel is a young player with injury issues and a great deal of largely unrealized potential. I hope he becomes a star for the Reds, and soon. I hope that he contributes in a meaningful way this year. But he is not clearly–right now–a better option in center or even third. Neither are Schrock or Alejo, who have good minor league numbers and little major league experience. I’d like to see all of them get a chance, but it’s no certainty that they would get us into the playoffs.
Better by what measurable metric? (Before Winker was put on IL.) Especially for the timeframe and corresponding cost (losing AA).
Is it dirty for Casty to opt out this year? Of course not, because at the end of the day its a business decision. Just like the front office has to make. I don’t understand why fans don’t want them to make wise fiscal decisions, especially when they end up being limited by them later. After all, we are fans of the team even after our favorite players move on.
I am not saying you are wrong but I think Senzel is on the very cusp as things stand now whether he gets any more MLB time this year.
Every day counts and my recollection is super2 has almost always fallen in the 125-135 range as opposed to 130+.
A couple of years back the Reds had somebody who missed by a single day with the cut being 127 or 128. The running 5 year average appears to 2.127
In 2019, it actually dropped to 2.115 per MLBTR.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/brewers-josh-hader-super-two-cutoff-arbitration.html
Also, see my comment above. I believe the 150 fractional days Senzel has in addition to his full year of service indicate the Reds already have the “extra year” in hand.
You are thinking of the number backwards. Under 130 (whatever the number ends up being) is to Reds benefit as Senzel will NOT be Super Two. That’s what Reds are trying to do by optioning him and reducing his fractional year. Over that is to Senzel’s benefit.
The “Extra year”, in terms of FA, is not in play here. It will not change regardless. The only thing in play is Super Two.
I think we are looking at this Super2 from different angles. If the cutoff goes lower, it benefits the player who wants to be super2. If it goes higher, it benefits the team trying to avoid super2 players. If a player is at 2.120 for example and the cutoff is 121 he does not get Super2. If the cutoff is at 119, he gets Super2.
As far as the “extra year” count it out year by year. At the end of 2020 Senzel was at 1.150 and he had been with the Reds in parts of 2 seasons but had less than 2 seasons of ST by 22 days. When he reaches free agency he is going to be at the end of his 7th season (at least) in which he earned service time (because he can’t earn more than 172 days in any given year).
Check Kris Bryant in Fangraphs or BBRef. His year end serial goes 0.171, 1.171, 2.171….5.171 and will be 6.171 at the end of 2022. Thats a full extra year less 1 day. Senzel’s fractional will change because of not getting a full year in 2021 but by the time he reaches 6 seasons of ST, the Reds will have had control and use of him for well more than 6 MLB seasons
I am not focused on the precise cutoff point as you are. I completely understand the rules. I am merely drawing attention to the Reds attempt to manipulate Senzel’s service time (by optioning him and particularly optioning him before it was required) so he misses the cutoff.
The Reds need him to spend somewhere between 35-47 days in minors to miss the cutoff, depending on where it falls.
Now, related topic. Surely this will foster bad will with Senzel, and appears to have already done so. Are they doing this to make him also a more attractive trade candidate? Cutting out an arb from his future would save millions for some team. Possible, imo.
I’m sure the Reds have done the math to determine where the cutoff will fall, and how much time they need him to spend in minors. We’ll know for sure if this is the Reds intention if Senzel is NOT called up by 8/31 for playoff roster eligibility, and also NOT called up when rosters expand on 9/1. He would not yet have enough time in minors at that point to miss Super Two.
@hype I believe Senzel is so close to making Super2 it is a fool’s game if the Reds are playing it. What if they lose another OF while Winker is down? Or what if India goes down (or Farmer). They are almost certainly going to have to call Senzel up in those cases or face a loud public relations blow up.
I said somewhere prior, perhaps on another thread, I think it is in the best interests of the player and the team to find some way to keep everything under cover until they reach a “final” disposition.
If teams know the Reds are overly anxious to move Senzel, it will lower his trade value. If he is seen as difficult or a trouble maker it not only lowers his value but perhaps scares off teams that might otherwise be good fits for him moving forward.
Agree to disagree if they must then play nice till the off season when he can be traded.
Today was that cruel reminder that if you expect things to happen in baseball, you are destined to be disappointed.
So true. Expect the unexpected.
Cards lead 2-0 already they will be tied with Reds in loss column, Reds in trouble?
cards play pirates 7 more x in august.
This winter could be extremely interesting for Reds fans…or not at all, depending on the outcome of the new CBA and how long it drags out.
1) Does Bell return?
2) Does Derek Johnson return?
3) Do the Reds hire a proven GM?
4) How much do they offer Castellanos and does he accept?
5) If Castellanos does not return, who do they acquire for RF?
6) Barnhart’s team option picked up?
7) Wade Miley team option picked up?
8) What to do with trio of underperforming and overpaid Moustakas, Suarez, and Akiyama? Can the Reds get any teams to take them by eating part of their salaries?
9) Find a CF.
10) Continue to fix the bullpen.
Any thoughts? Am I missing anything?
Lorenzen & Givens are both FAs with a salary of $4/mil this year. We need both, but atleast one of them.
1. The Reds will keep David Bell, but they should replace him.
2. Derek Johnson will return
3. No, they will keep Nick Krall because he is cheap.
4. They should offer Nick Castellanos whatever it takes to sign hm. This team without Castellanos will struggle offensively.
5. If Castellanos doesn’t resign it is going to leave a huge hole in the line up. My guess they would sign someone cheap and past their prime or give RF to AA. Either way it will be a terrible move.
6. I like Tucker but having two starting catchers is a luxury the Reds can’t afford. Let Tucker walk and use the money saved to keep Castellanos.
7. Again I know what the answer should be but whether the Reds do it is another matter. I would definitely pick up Miley’s option
8. The Reds will keep Suarez, Moose and Shogo. They should release Suarez and Shogo. I’m willing to give Moose another season
9. Ideally, it would be Nick Senzel. But there does seem to be a stranded relationship between Senzel and the Reds. My guess Senzel will be traded in the off-season. Who knows who will play CF. My guess is it will be someone outside the organization.
10. Hopefully, the Reds will sign Lorenzen and Givens. A bullpen featuring Lorenzen, Givens, Cessa, Wilson and Antone on paper would be pretty strong. It’s so hard to gauge where a bullpen is going to be effective.
I think the Reds have a very solid team. But you can not assume that a player who has been effective in 2021 will put up similar numbers in 2022. What if India and Stephenson struggle next year? What if Joey reverts back to his 2020 numbers? What if the starting pitching struggles next year? So many things can go wrong. Of course the opposite is also true. Maybe next year we don’t have nearly as many injuries.
dont forget sims and they need a lefty in the pen.
6&7
>>Reds decline Barnhart’s option but try to retain him at a market rate for a backup catcher. Guessing that tops out around $2M AAV. I doubt any contender is going to want Barnhart as their #1 catcher but there may be a very good market for him as a #1B or #2. If a lesser team (but one looking to build a young pitching staff) offers him #1 money, then he is going to have to choose between more money and playing on a contender.
>>Reds almost certainly hang onto Miley
If they pick up Miley’s option (which I think they will), what do they do with the rest of the rotation? I suggested trading Mahle in one of the game threads, as I think he would bring back good value or could be used to entice someone to take on the Moustakas contract. As for the rest:
1) Yes
2) Yes
3) No
4) Not sure how much they’ll offer, but I think he’ll be on the team next year.
5) N/A
6) No
7) Yes
8) Think Suarez will stick around. Could see them cutting Shogo loose. Hoping they can find someone to take the Moustakas contract with Mahle as the incentive.
9) This is one of the two big positions for improvement next year. I’m really hoping it isn’t Inciarte, but the Reds have seemingly been after him for awhile.
10) Bullpen might be closer than you think. The new guys have panned out well and I hope they bring Givens back. Still have Santillan, and potentially guys like Moreta and Sanmartin could be something for them next year.
Nick Senzel……..lol. He has 1 hr in 146 at-bats this year. Who is he better then exactly? Shogo, but Shogo can bang off a wall without needing a full body cast after the game. AA? No…..Punisher. Naquin? 1st round pick himself and No!
Chevy has built crash test dummies that last longer in action. Meanwhile Naquin puts up a .950 in August and zzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Let him put up Barrero numbers at Lville and then we’ll see? Where is he? Is he pouting? He’s supposedly healthy. Is he still banged up? It doesn’t seem like he plays everyday in AAA? They obviously don’t like something. I predict he’s going to play with his buddy JVMeter in Arizona!
Nick senzel is absolutely the solution
Dont have the long answer tonight
But… you can send suarez Shogo Akiyama excuses all u want
Well if production matters for Geno, Moose, and Shogo then shouldn’t it matter for Senzel? 1 hr in 146 at-bats? .227 combined average w/the Reds 2020-21 with very little power.
Root how you want to root, but I’m not going to pick favorites to the point where I’m going to ignore stats and downplay other Reds accomplishments just to be proven right.
is he hurt again?
Since Nick Senzel is a current subject of conversation, here is my take. With Senzel recovered from his injuries, the Reds will trade him in the offseason for a couple young guys to possibly take over first and third base in a few years. In the meantime, Bell/Krall will go with Suarez/Moustakas at third base. Ender Inciarte will take over center field.
Josh van meter -Wrong – jesse Winker 1000x better
Zach cozart -wrong for 40 million and Jose Garcia/ Berraro just 10000x better
Adam Duvall- Wrong again
Indy – u been 100 million wrong over and over and over
Thats just the facts with your cozart s and duvalls and Van meters
Who said JVM was better then Winker? It wasn’t me. Cozart? Duvall? I was a big Duvall fan, but just played himself out of Cincinnati.
I’m not going to fight with you, but why should Senzel’s early 2019 or 2018 minor league or Tennessee success matter while Suarez’s .930 ops in 2019 is totally irrelevent?
Senzel = HURT AND/OR INEFFECTIVE….PERIOD
BS….I never said Van Meter was better then Wink?
I think senility crept up on OldSchool. I said Wink struggles vs lhp which he generally has. I believe in him! I never said a thing about Cozart? I was never really a fan. Everyone on RLN dumped on Duvall and said he couldn’t play. I said he wasn’t being used properly. Now he near the league lead in rbis so I was proven right!
Are u kiddimg me ??? Indy was JVM
jVM JVM
Just stop pretending you werent JVM was a core guy ??? Please.
Stop lying
He did the same thing Senzel did….he had 2 good months. I readily admitted 100x that I thought he could be good. But the others? You’re just making stuff up?
I also snagged Warren when absolutely nobody else did.
Actually JVM .850 ops for July/August now thats he’s playing vs rhp. He could be a good platoon player moving forward.
My betting apps will tell you how much I know baseball. I post 65% here. What else do you want?
Guess who I had today at +140 Over 0.5 rbis?
Tyler Naquin
I’d post the screen shot if I could
JVM hit like 11 hrs in April at Louisville and then came up and had a .860 ops after 2 months of playing alot then he went 110% swing Geno mode after launching a few balls and he was never the same.
JVM had a .855 on August 17/2019. After what he did in Lville, I wasn’t the only one on his bandwagon 2 years ago
This is why I left for 6 months to steve mancuso content
Matt is cool
Smh
I don’t want to fight with you. I criticize guys in a hard way and try to be snarky/funny if I can. Its not a personal insult to you if I hammer Senzel.
I’m not rooting against him, but whatever hype I felt died with his 7th injury and that was 5 injuries ago. If I’m wrong then you get full credit!
If Senzel makes it anywhere then you get full credit!
I agree with your take. Make him earn his way back. Maybe he can become Whit Merrifield type of late bloomer.
Maybe Daughtery (sp) asked him a question and he needed a day or two to overcome it?
Haha kudos on the tennis reporting reference
I was at both games. Got an email from the park asking me not to return. On all seriousness, bad at bats. Reaching for bad pitches. Very few walks. Poor place discipline. Looks like the batting success has guys reaching for numbers instead of good at bats.
I’m very sorry you saw that live not one but two days in a row.
Needed that change of pace. Watching the Cards-Bucs on ESPN+, pretty tight game to forget what happened earlier in the day. The pitcher for the Cards is using a “powder blue” glove which is really sharp against the red and obviously shows up much better in a close play. Wonder if there are rules on glove colors that can be used? The commentator noted that the “powder blue” color is part of their color scheme in another uniform. Anything for distraction in the midst of typical 3+ hour games.
Game going to extras at 3-3. At least 3 people got thrown out on balls, strikes and check swing plays. They all had a good point. Seems like this is a bad year for umps. In another play the ump was in the line of fire for a bad throw and got hit by the ball. Not good. Perhaps the virus forced a lot of turnover so the average expertise has taken a hit.
Nice stadium and rivalry here. Brewers go up by 3 in the 10th on a Molina passed ball and then got a Yelich base hit bunt driving home a run. He then later came around to score from first on a short single and a bobble for the Cards 4th error of the game. Probably the best result if it holds, all things considered.
Tough series vs a team who was Due.
Reason worry about Marlins coming in as well.
Pitching needs to set the Tone.
Go Reds.
The Marlins are a dangerous young team. I don’t take for granted a Reds sweep or even 3 of 4. Pitching and hitting will have to come through with the August wear down in order to take the series.
Cards just choked against the brewers.
I’m afraid Milw is going to win the whole thing. They just seem to get whatever they need this year. I’m really annoyed with them too after hitting 4 Reds in 10 innings and putting Castellanos out. Then Counsell cheated the 3 batter minimum to steal that middle game after the break when they swept us. Reminds me of Belechik skirting the rules to beat the Colts. Lets deflate the ball so our RBs don’t fumble it and suddenly lead the NFL in runaway fashion with fewest fumbles.
We can’t win the division, but we could have Garrett hit somebody (s) in the wrist with 97 and see how they like it!
I think Garrett is saving his 97 for Javi.
All 4 teams in the WC2 picture lost, which leaves the nearest St Louis 2.5 back of the Reds and 4 back of the Padres
They need to try something new on offense to get something going without Winker. Pitcher hitting 8th with Naquin hitting 9th is something I really wish they’d try. If a runner is on with 2 outs he can swing a way. With no one on and less than 2 outs, he can try and bunt for a hit, which if he can do it efficiently, sets up the top of the order with a runner on base. If successful could also open up a spot on the field for him to hit normally if they have to try and protect from it. I think it’s a win win.
Naquin right now seems like a better option than Senzel.
Agree. You could mix Senzel in at CF and at other positions providing he can stay healthy.
By the time Senzel was injured, Naquin had forced him into the short side of an LH/RH platoon which is part of the reason they were looking at Senzel as a possible replacement for a then slumping India.
Well, the “geniuses” at fangraphs have dissected the Suarez problem.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eugenio-suarez-needs-more-power/.
Its a very interesting but very convoluted analysis that relies upon piles of made up (or proprietary) statistical measures with an analysis that concludes that Suarez needs more power when he pulls the ball and by extension, any other approach is basically hopeless. I guess going where the ball is pitched, hitting line drives, adjust for typical age-related factors and such are not valid anymore. Makes that easier on the player and management because the solution is …do nothing. Seems like that garbage advice is what has been followed this year and the results have been remarkedly consistent over a large sample size.
That advice IS garbage and a recipe for failure. I agree.
I think they were saying if Suarez continues his approach, the only way it would work is if he regains the power he had in 2019. It’s interesting that it coincides with his shoulder injury. So either his power is actually zapped, and he needs a whole new approach, or his shoulder regains it’s strength (2022) and he can return to form. I’m going with the new approach is the best solution. Maybe if the Reds trade Suarez he’ll find it easier to make the adjustments needed.
Yes, that is a good summation if you filter out all the other data overload. I just don’t think he is going to regain this power after the injury, advancing age, etc. so he needs to change his approach but hasn’t. I also would not be surprised if the Reds get rid of him and eat 80% of his contract only to see another team with a more balanced and disciplined approach bring him back to a respectable level of play.
While bashing fangraphs, I’ll give a much simpler example. The Reds strength of schedule remaining (SOS) is the MLB lowest by contenders at .459. The Padres have the highest at .535. That means a .500 club would win (1-SOS) games left with this schedule without an other adjustments. If this is further modified by each team’s winning percentage and the records thus far, the nonbiased expected number of season wins can be calculated. The Reds are at 87.1, the Padres 85.7 and yet the reds are nearly 7% lower in percentage of chance to win the Wild card. How is this possible? Read about fangraphs 10,000 simulations of layer upon layer of unexplained (oops, proprietary) factors and you tell me. What garbage. Its a fun site but as they say, for entertainment purposes only.
When I saw they got their total playoff probability % for each team by adding the divisional and wild card percentages, I knew something wasn’t right.
If I was going to take a shot in the dark guess, I’d guess they don’t adjust winning percentages from game to game within each simulation run.
I’m not pretending to have answers. But I definitely have questions. I was looking at a compilation of WAR by position per team. The Reds rank FIRST for starting pitchers among all 30 MLB teams. But for 3B, SS, CF they rank 29 / 27 / 30. That means they have been better than a grand total of 4 other teams at those three positions combined. So no matter how much you (and more importantly, Krall and Bell) like Suarez, Moustakas, Farmer, Naquin and Akiyama they have been objectively bad at Major League Baseball this year. The quickest way to get better at anything is to identify the parts you are worst at, and upgrade those areas. What can the Reds do to upgrade those THREE positions? Senzel, Schrock, Lopez, McLain, Barrero (definitely) and free agent / trade acquisitions? This may not even be a 2021 question but it is definitely a big Reds question. Get well soon Jesse Winker. Extend Nick Castellanos. And improve 3B and CF and don’t screw up SS. Go Reds!
I agree with what you are saying but also think a keen observer would come to much the same conclusion even if they don’t know what WAR means (meaning the 99% who don’t know the formula used or statistical relevance therein). Sure, some very clever measurements have been developed that are very useful but most measures are nothing better than “observations” (i.e. like voting patterns). Everything has a cost and associated human adaptation.
If you absolutely need 9 bullpen pitchers because of the “1 inning rule” that you are creating a one size fits all mentality that requires keeping 3 relievers that are generally unfit to pitch in 90% of the situations. Meanwhile, players like Senzel, Schrock and Lopez are denied roster positions. Also seems like the Driveline system has somewhat lost its luster this year as people adjust to it and/or pitchers lose other skills by the intense focus on spin rate and such. MLB seems to be also exposing the “methods” pitchers used to achieve those spin rates.
It would be easier do if you didn’t have to pay the culprits what they are owed in the the upcoming seasons.
All of us have our opinions about who should play but Bell will never go with a set lineup for any length of time and maybe he shouldnt.I can tell you who shouldn’t be playing and it based on performance. Moose nor Suarez are not and have not got it done at third.Maybe can go with Moose a little longer but not much longer cause he ain’t helping.Senzel can play 3rd as can Farmer.As long as Wink is out it has been some combo of Shogo,AA and Naquin in left and in center.Pick 2 and move on and for my money its the last 2 guys.All have flaws but we play in GABP and most of the balls hit over an out fielders head got out so I go with the guys that actually can hit and hit with power.Senzel can also play the outfield.Now I know I have cut out the money guys in Moose Suarez and Shogo but the other guys are just better.Get Senzel up here and put Barrero at short and lets play.Got to stop this nonsense of the money plays and we must play everybody and lets put the best out there and go.Didn’t even talk about the catcher but you know me lets play the young guy.
But money always plays. That just life. Best case scenario is Moose or Geno can be average and we can trade bad money for bad money in our favor next year for the other one like the Homer for Kemp deal. If the Reds could move either one for 40-50% of the $35 mil owed then thats a victory!
Well best case scenario is that one of them plays to their 2019 numbers, but I’m not getting carried away.
First MLB exchange with MLBPA today involved proposal for luxury tax tiers and thresholds but also a $100 million salary floor.
12-13 teams are below that threshold.
Could see a scenario where bad teams need some expensive but expiring contracts to get to that minimum salary floor and Reds could unload a salary with a prospect.
I think I have more confidence in Moose hitting. 230-.250 next year than Geno. Plus with DH coming into play(hopefully) they can stash him there some games. I dont know. Hard to get rid of one and fat chance ( no pun intended moose) of getting rid of two. Never seen a guy pull his head for so long as Geno. He could probably be a better hitter if he just stood there and took the balls that are down and away and dont swing until you have 2 strikes on you.
MLB has updated their top prospect lists.