|New York Mets (49-43)||3||9||0|
|Cincinnati Reds (49-46)||4||10||1|
|W: Miley (8-4) L: Nogosek (0-1) S: Garrett (7)|
|FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread|
The Reds desperately needed a win on Tuesday night, and they found a way to get it done for a hard fought victory. The Reds fell behind 1-0 in the first, but Jonathan India got the Reds on the board with a leadoff home run.
The Reds took the lead in the third inning when Joey Votto and Aristides Aquino hit back-to-back home runs.
Wade Miley danced around hard hit contact all night to find a way through 6.1 innings with the lead. The Reds bullpen pitched well tonight. Amir Garrett finished off the Mets in the 9th.
The Reds picked up a game in both the NL Central (now 6.5 back) and the NL 2nd wild card spot (now 5.0 back) with Brewers and Padres losses tonight. The Reds 10 wins in the month of July are currently tied for the most in MLB.
67 games to play.
Aristides Aquino finally got a start in Nick Castellanos absence. Aquino reached base three times, including hitting a home run. He now has a 1.008 OPS. Aquino should always be the guy starting if any of Winker, Naquin or Castellanos are out of the lineup until he proves otherwise. If fact, should Naquin struggle down the stretch, he should challenge him for playing time. Aquino also made a really great catch.
Joey Votto homered to break the tie in the 3rd inning. Votto had a massive single in the 7th inning leading to an insurance run after the Mets brought in their top LH reliever, Aaron Loup. It was the second straight night that Votto had a big hit off a LH RP. That has to feel really good for Votto, who has really struggled vs LHP the last few seasons.
Jonathan India hit a leadoff homer and also walked. He now has a 129 wRC+. That is the best of any Reds rookie since Josh Hamilton in 2007 (hat tip to Matt Wilkes). He also has an .831 OPS. For some context, Brandon Phillips best OPS season was .816 (and that came in 2007).
Wade Miley lowered his ERA down to 2.72. He danced around hard contact all night (10 hard hit balls allowed) and got some help on the defensive side of the ball.
Eugenio Suarez had a two hit night. He got thrown out in the 9th trying to stretch a leadoff double into a triple. At first glance, it looked like a really bad decision by Suarez, but the Mets CF just made an unbelievable throw. I know the old adage of “never make the first out at third base,” but when the next guy strikes out in 30% of his PA, I’m not sure it is a bad risk.
Brad Brach made two really great pitches to get out of Miley’s jam in the 7th. The first pitch to Pete Alonso should have been an out, but Votto made an error. The next pitch to Jeff McNeil resulted in an inning-ending GIDP, to get the Reds out of the 7th with the lead.
Heath Hembree allowed a run, but he had some tough luck/bad defense from Winker. He got the Reds through the heart of the Mets order in the 8th with the lead.
Amir Garrett closed the game out in the 9th. It looked rough after he threw 5 straight balls to start the inning, but he locked in and struck out 2 for the save. Garrett continues to pitch really well. Over his last 16 appearances: 11.1 IP, 3 ER, 19 K, 5 BB, 2.43 ERA. Two of those earned runs were on Saturday when he had some really brutal luck. He gave up a .080 xBA single and a run scored on a ball hit 2 feet in front of the plate. It’s great to see him pitching so well.
The Reds played some good defense for most of the night, but Winker and Votto had some rough plays in the late innings. Aquino also made a silly out on the basepaths.
Not so random thoughts……………
The Reds had a chance to blow the game open in the bottom of the 6th. The Reds had runners on 2nd & 3rd with 2 outs and Wade Miley up. Miley was only at 84 pitches, but he had already allowed 10 hard hit balls. 2019 and 2020 David Bell would have brought in a PH (Tyler Stephenson would have been the guy tonight) to not waste that opportunity, especially with Miley giving up so much hard contact. This is one of the additional things a non-trusty worthy bullpen impacts. The Reds still won the game, but Miley only got 1 out in the top of the 7th and left 2 runners on base.
Mets at Reds
Wednesday, 12:35 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio; MLB Network (out-of-market only)
Jeff Hoffman (4.66 FIP) vs Marcus Stroman (3.61 FIP)
Good to see both AA and the BP do well. Watching our BP is like driving down the road with your gas running out. You never know how far you will get.
Your gas tank is low because the Red’s bullpen syphoned the gas so they could set the dumpster on fire.
I am an eye physician and noticed something tonight when Amir was being interviewed . It appears to me that he has clinically significant right upper eyelid ptosis and a less significant ptosis on the left side . This leads to a visual field deficit . Ultimately might affect his performance. He should see an eye surgeon in the off season
The Ayes have it!
Doc – he should go to another team in the off-season.
I can’t stand to see base running errors. How does a runner on first with no chance to advance on a sac fly get thrown out? Our loss against ATL in the postseason was due to poor base running. I’m not that big of a fan of AA, and his base running cements my feelings.
Nice to see for AA.
Early injury was a tough Break.
Not used enough since been back though.
Glad got the W. Get that Feeling again.
ASB made it feel like forever since had one lol.
Nice to see Cards Pen Look like Ours.
Watched them blow 5 run lead all in the 9th Inning.
Still on though.
SD, phillies, brewers, SL, lost their games tonight.
Mets bullpen ravaged. If Reds can force Stroman out early, we could take this series.
That is the key to the week We need to win each series.. That is what I am hoping for.
Aquino? I’m sure he’s more then they think is, but I don’t have a clue what he is or isn’t capable of? A ceiling of an Adam Duvall or better? His floor is certainly lower, but they have some things in common. Just the way he can easily reach the seats in any direction at Gabp has to be worth something.
Naquin isn’t chopped liver either though. Tough decisions, but AA needs more playing time. They have about 7 guys in the discussion for DH next year and thats not going to work. They’re going to have to cut bait somewhere.
Castellanos used to play 3B back in the day in case anyone forgot
Aquino has too much defensive talent to be a DH. He has a rocket for an arm and is decently fast. The only thing we don’t know about him is how he can handle MLB pitching. And as long as his playing time is limited, we’ll never know. We all know he has power, and he seems to have seriously improved his batting eye, but the sample size is just too small to make a final determination.
Agree. We also need to find out about Lopez. Running Suarez out there every day is not going to allow much discovery with Lopez.
Interesting to get on this blog and see all the doomsday comments after the recent losing streak. I think this is a good team – not great! But they are capable of beating any NL team. It would be ideal if they were all healthy and that is often the mark of championship teams (they avoid the injury bug) but this team has been fun to watch. India, Miley, Castellanos and Winker have had great years so far. There has been a lot of talk about Aquino on here and how he should be “sent down”. The Average MLB Batting average THIS year is .241 and he is right there! Now we don’t necessarily want Average players – but what do we have to legitimately replace him with?? Also – REDS fans everywhere – just need to have a more positive outlook! Been watching a lot of baseball games online lately and Pirates, Padres, Angels especially Astros fans are rabid crazy – yes I mentioned the Pirates!! (And yes I have been a Reds fan since the 70’s – I bleed Red so I understand how frustrating it is not be in the playoffs)
i am less concerned about the bullpen than I am about the base running. i feel the bullpen will improve as people get healthy but I don’t see the baserunning improving this year. we just are making too many mistakes on the bases, leaving too many runs ” on the table”. 2 big baserunning blunders in a row in the 7th and eight inning could have easily cost us the game.
I hope that is Bell’s #1 priority in the off season. the goal for next year should be no mistakes on the bases whatsoever.
Their baserunning has been bad ever since the Rolen era Reds. They don’t get good secondary leads and don’t read the ball off the bat very well. Thats not even factoring in the guys that get thrown out.
India is obviously fantastic, but I’ll use him as an example last night. He had a bad secondary lead on Votto’s hit and only went from 2nd to 3rd. The ball was a hit from the second it left the bat, but it was soft enough to take time for Nimmo to get to it and he made a horrible throw. I don’t know the scouting report on Nimmo, but they should. He obviously can’t throw that well. There was only 1 out so India held, but if Aquino Ks or Stephenson hits into a dp then we don’t score and both of those happen quite often.
Last night the Mets had a reliever that went into his 2nd inning and never even glanced at the runners. We had guys on, but nobody took the free base. I think India was the lead runner there too.
Good look at the baserunning beyond the obvious TOOTBLANs. Maybe we should invent a new term called SOTBLAN for Stuck On The Bases Like A Nincompoop. 😉
For me, a big key on the Suárez situation was whether he was running hard out of the box or just shifted into high gear when he saw the ball kick away from the Metz CF. I saw several replays but never could make up my mind. Maybe that means he doesn’t have that strong of overdrive gear?
Along the same lines, I thought he looked like he lost some top end about 1/2 way to third. Didn’t think he slowed intentionally, it looked like he was pumping as hard but just not covering ground as quickly.
What is the role of the 1B and 3B coaches in the base running?
Do they give the green light to go? Is a decision of the runners, or they are just ignore them?
I had the same question when i saw the reliever ignoring the man on base.
Baseball is a game of lnches. These “minor” details (or secondary baseball) males the difference from a good to great teams.
India is noticeably limping at times over the last month or so he’s been banged up for awhile
Yes…it looked to me that Suarez was watching the ball after he hit it…I think HR hitters actually do that a bit too much these days…also looked like he hesitated a bit at rounding 2nd, decided to go, lost his balance a bit…altho lighter this year, probably doesn’t have the legs for it, but still it took a pretty good throw to get him. Never saw AA out, but it kinda looks like the Reds were trying to run on Nimmo’s arm.
I agree with everything you said – the Rangers lost a World Series due to poor base running (Ian Kinsler). It is more important to the game than most realize. Votto has typically been a poor baserunner but has gotten better even though he is slower now…but your point is well made!
Jim, I always coached running hard out of the box because if you get a chance to take the extra base you are in a better position to be safe when you get there. 5 to 10 feet can make a difference. 3 feet can make a difference or 6 inches for that matter. I see so many major league players who don’t hustle out of the box. Pete Rose was one of the best I ever saw at running hard out of the box and taking the extra base.
My Red’s priority is a strong BP to go along with strong starting pitching backed up by a strong young core.
If they address the BP and 3B we are in the hunt. SS help is on the way or just keep using Farmer for this season.
I dont see Suarez thinking that he needs to make 3rd base because the next guy up strikes out 30% of the time. I see A guy trying to make up for a horrible season with an aggressive try at stretching a double into a triple. I have more faith in Barnhart making contact than Suarez.
Good job Nick. You know I agree about AA. I actually believe he’s a better all around player than his great month two years ago. Consistent playing time is the only way we’ll know.
Give AA a real chance, and I think the Reds will find a diamond in the rough. If not, I’m sure some other club will.
Agree. The sample size on AA is still small this year but the other side of the coin is that it is hard to be a consistent performer on when being used inconsistently and he has been used inconsistently and yet been a consistent performer.
Just to stir the pot a bit. AA’s appearances amount to about a tenth of a full season at this point in 2021. When has Nick Senzel, for one, ever put together a tenth of a season in serial that comes close to matching AA’s 2021, not to mention the 13 (or whatever it was) HR month a couple of years back when he played every month? And AA is no hack on defense either
How about India, AA, and Miley! Great performances last night. And I was worried India might have been a bust. Obvious Rookie of the year.
I agree with others, I’d like to see more AA – but who sits? I do think Winker needs a rest every once in awhile. I would much rather see AA get at bats in outfield than Senzel when he is healthy (which is when?). I think after the trade deadline Suarez will sit much more and Senzel and Moose will take his at bats. Got to get more from the third base position. I’m ok seeing Suarez get some games at shortstop but only to rest Farmer occasionally. Joey also needs to get a rest day more often – if for no other reason than to improve that position’s defense.
Good job by AA and Brach from the bullpen last night too. Go REDS!
He doesn’t really have a spot with all 3 OF healthy. Maybe if Naquin really comes crashing down he could play some CF, but I don’t think we are close to that (Naquin has really good career numbers vs RHP). That is why it was so maddening that they did not start him the three previous days with Castellanos out of the lineup. They need to give him chances whenever they have an opportunity.
Good win and glad to see HH and Garrett finish.
Good to see India arriving as a good 2b and leadoff hitter.
Good to see Votto with an fWAR of 1.1 despite missing May with a wRC+ 129. Winker,Stephenson,Barnhart and Naquin have given good efforts this season as well.
But, Reds need to win this series. Mets are a shell of a first place team at the moment. The Reds scored 11 runs Monday with the Mets committing 4 errors – yet they somehow still lost. They beat a AAAA pitcher last night. Who is available to pitch for this important game today against Marcus Stroman?
Well, Jeff Hoffman struggled to pitch 4 innings when he was healthy earlier this year. Santillan should be available so he better be ready to go by the 4th inning. HH and Garrett wont be available. So, its
It makes no sense to play Castellanos with the off-day tomorrow.
Looks like a Mike Freeman day at SS.
Other than that, things look promising.
Alaniz and Brach -spellchecker
Yeah…it’s going to take at least 10 runs to win today.
Good win to finally stop the bleeding. Miley has sort of become the stopper for this team in the rotation. I agree AA should be playing more regularly, and as a RH OF with two LH starting OF’ers there should be a clear path to get more time. Nice to see Votto hitting the ball well. The bullpen came through last night. We’ll need more of that if we want to keep up.
…. Wish Miley had been used in the Brewers series….
Is Jonathan India now in the conversation for ROY? And….does his performance suggest the prospect experts (like fangraphs) whiffed on understanding his potential with their low ratings and FV ratings?
You never know when someone will take off. I have seen it happen in a player’s late twenties or even later, but it is rare. Many players are not given a chance when they first come up(Aquino and Lopez). Sometimes it is because some team (or another team) has given them a chance and not thrown them into a role player early on.
not given a chance and another team does give them a chance
Let’s hope the prospect ‘experts’ are as wrong about Barrero as they were about India……and Tyler Stephenson. For the life of me I don’t get how a first rounder with good OBP plus power potential who plays a premium defensive position wouldn’t rank in the top 20. Yeah, these lists mean nothing to me.
Agree. I am not sure how good some of those guys are at their job as well as some MLB managers and coaches. 3 things about management. Draft the correct players. Develop those players and put those players in the right position including their roles on the team and being given a chance. A lot of managers, scouts etc fail on at least some of the 3.
Barrero has been highly rated and has been rated the top Reds prospect. He might be a little under the radar; but not like Stephenson and India were.
Maybe Doug can shed some light on this too??
Because Barreo was highly rated, he was rushed. No AA or AAA. Another strike against the skills of our management team.
According to Ron Darling abd Gary Cohen on Mets broadcast , India is the front runner right now.
Lineup out for today’s game. Castellanos is still out. Aquino gets another shot! (though I might have placed him a little higher in the order)….
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Jesse Winker (L) LF
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Tyler Naquin (L) CF
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
Aristides Aquino (R) RF
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Jeff Hoffman (R) P
There is a Reds rule that Suarez bats no lower then 6th …ever.
Suarez did hit 7th in three games, and went 3-10, but they fired a couple of clubhouse guys for not catching this breach of The Code.
He’s hit .080 in 6 starts in the 3-hole; .136 in 21 starts in the 4-hole; and .127 in 17 starts in the 5-hole. They may as well have hit Jim Maloney in those games. Maloney hit .201 in his career, but you’d have to discount that a bit, given that he just turned 81.
I was thinking the same about AA’s placement. HR/ 1B/ BB in 4 plate appearances and he gets dropped to 7th in the order.
Here is another Aquino tidbit. In 2021, he has 6 HR in 64 PAs, which ciphers out to an HR every 10.67 PAs which yields ~47HR for the minimum PAs per season (502) to qualify for batting average title and the like,
I do not rate Aquino’s baserunning out as a TOOTBLAN. Suarez was on deck, so Aquino correctly calculated that even a 1-in-20 baserunning chance was worth taking.
Suarez then led off the next inning with a high-octane TOOTBLAN. Not busting it out of the box is always inexcusable. Even when Suarez lucks into hitting the ball hard, he manages to find a way to louse it up.
No excuse for not hustling out of the batter’s box after hitting the ball fair! EVER! Says who? Pete Rose!