| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers (55-39) | 7 | 15 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Reds (48-44) | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| W: Gustave (1-0) L: Doolittle (3-1) | |||
| FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Reds got the scoring started thanks to some shaky defense from the Brewers in the second inning. Kyle Farmer made them pay even more with a 2-out, RBI double with a base open and the pitchers spot up next. Luis Castillo continued his 2021 resurgence. Castillo pitched six shutout innings with 8 strikeouts. Castillo’s now has a 1.76 ERA over his last 9 starts.
Things went downhill quickly in the 7th when Amir Garrett came in. He made a mistake pitch to pinch-hitter Tyrone Taylor, who hit a sharp single. Kolten Wong hit a single with an expected batting average of .080 to move the runners to first and third. Christian Yelich hit a ball 2 feet in front of the plate to cut the Reds lead to 2-1. Garrett left to some boos from the Cincinnati crowd. Brad Brach came in and allowed a single and sac fly, and the Reds were trailing 3-2 out of nowhere.
The rain came down and the game was delayed for 45 minutes during the bottom of the 7th inning. The Reds as they’ve done all year, never quit. Jonathan India hit a game tying home run in the 8th.
The game went into extra innings. Both teams scored a run in the 10th inning. The Brewers blew it open in the 11th inning when they scored three runs. The Reds brought the winning run to the plate, but it was Wade Miley with two outs because the Reds ran out of players with Nick Castellanos unavailable. Miley grounded out to end the game.
The Reds have dropped both of the first two games of the series. They are now 6.0 games back in the NL Central. Tomorrow is obviously a massive game for the Reds.
Biggest Play of the Game
Source: FanGraphs
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the biggest play of the game was Jonathan India’s solo home run to lead off the 8th inning, tying the game at 3. That play increased the Reds probability of winning by 29.7% (from 25.8% to 60.9%).
Positives
Luis Castillo just continues to pitch like……Luis Castillo. It was silly to doubt that he would not find a way to turn this around earlier in the year. Castillo’s final line: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K. He allowed a total of 5 hard hit balls on the night, and the Brewers expected batting average against him was just .218. His full season ERA is now all the way down to 4.39.
Kyle Farmer drove in a big second run with a double in the second inning. He later ripped a ball off Josh Hader that was inches away from being a walk-off winner with Aquino on first, but Luis Urias made the play of the night converting it into a double play.
Michael Lorenzen pitched a scoreless 8th inning in his 2021 debut. He allowed a hit and a walk, but he struck out 2. He even stayed in the game to play RF and then later CF. He struck out against Hader, but he did force him to throw five pitches. He did however leave hurt (more below).
Jonathan India hit a game tying home run in the 8th. It was a massive home run after the bullpen letdown. He also made a great diving catch in the 10th.
Negatives
It was a tough night for Amir Garrett. He made a really bad mistake pitch to a 2-2 count to Tyrone Taylor, but he had some brutal luck after that. Garrett has had a really difficult season, but it should be pointed out that he entered play today with a 2.38 ERA/2.11 FIP over his last 18 appearances. Hopefully this was just a tough outing and he can get back on track. The Reds really need him to be a good left-handed option in the bullpen.
Josh Osich and Sean Doolittle could not get the job done in extra innings. The Reds bullpen as a whole allowed 7 runs. They had a lot of things go against them tonight with some very weak contact and low-percentage hits, but it is still painful to watch for a fanbase that has zero patience for the pen.
The Reds offense only had five hits in 11 innings. They also only had a total of 7 hard hit balls on the night, and 4 of those came off the Brewers last resort pitcher, Jandel Gustave. The Reds did have 7 walks on the night. 4 of those walks were against Brandon Woodruff, which helped get him out of the game in the 6th inning.
Luis Urias made two game-changing defensive plays for the Brewers (robbing Farmer and Aquino). Urias entered play with -14 outs above average, tied with Eugenio Suarez for the worst of any player in baseball.
Michael Loreznen got hurt while scoring the game tying run in the 10th inning, tagging from third base. He had to leave the game with what looked like a possible hamstring injury. I know there was a lot of complaints tonight about why would they use Lorenzen outside of pitching with the thin bullpen just coming back. This was a fluke injury. I am pretty sure that Lorenzen has never been hurt in his career on the offensive side of the ball. He has spent months conditioning to get ready. I just think it’s one of those though things that happens. It has just been a brutal season for Lorenzen, who was supposed to finally get a chance in the rotation at the start of this season. You have to feel for him.
David Bell on Michael Lorenzen:
It’s definitely hamstring related. Going to see how he responds tomorrow. Hope is to avoid the IL. #Reds @FOX19
— Jeremy Rauch (@FOX19Jeremy) July 18, 2021
Not so random thoughts……………
I suppose that paying customers have the right to boo their teams players and/or managers if they want to. It did not sit well with me when the fans booed Garrett (maybe some directed at Bell) when he left the game. I get that not everyone will share in that feeling, but it did not sit well with me. I wish that we would try to be more encouraging to our players after a tough outing than that. I don’t see what good will come of it (no, it’s not going to change Bob’s mind about spending money or not).
Brewers reliever Brad Boxberger left the game with an apparent injury after he allowed a leadoff home run to Jonathan India. The injury replacement allowed Craig Counsell a loophole around the 3-batter minimum, and he got to bring in LHP, Brent Suter vs Jesse Winker (who has massive splits negatively against LHP). I’m not saying Boxberger wasn’t hurt, but this seems like a major flaw in the rule. Boxberger should at least be forced to go on the IL since this move clearly gave the Brewers an advantage tonight. Devin Williams also did go on the IL earlier today, so that strong Brewers bullpen might not be so strong for a while.
I didn’t like David Bell going to Alejo Lopez in the 8th inning with two runners on base and 1 out against Brent Suter instead of Aristides Aquino. The move was made to be able to set up a potential 9th inning and keep your fielders in order, but Bell had a chance to essentially win the game there. It’s a small sample, but Aristides Aquino entered the day day leading the Reds in OPS (.984) and xwOBA (.393). I would have liked to see him get a chance there.
The Reds need a win tomorrow. That would put them at 4-3 in the 7 games against the Brewers. It is certainly not how you would have expected to get to that point, but overall, I don’t think you could be too upset with that. It is really hard to win more games than that against a quality opponent. Win tomorrow, get to 5.0 back with a lot of season left and a favorable schedule in September. Go Reds.
Up Next:
Brewers at Reds
Sunday, 1:10 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Sonny Gray (3.19 ERA) vs Corbin Burnes (2.36 ERA)
Game 7 tomorrow. And yes the hometown booing does have an effect. When was suarez benched before the break? When he was booed in his home stadium. Ultimately for Bob its ticket sales that will force a change, yes. But your first sign that ticket sales are going down? Booing, hence fans that may not want a repeat performance. Players are played (if they are good enough to reach arbitration) millions of dollars to perform at a professional level. The reds bullpen is not.
A good write up though Nick.
I heard during the game on the radio that Doolittle wants to re-invent himself…..seriously…Reds are battling to try to win a division & he’s trying out things there on the mound….if you are calling on a relief pitcher to come in to a tight game & he’s in the process of re-inventing himself….he should not be on a MLB roster
Yeah, now I understand the pathetic curveball He gave up to Yelich for the go-ahead run double in 11th… Yikes
I hope (and think) that the booing was directed towards Bob C.
Besides boycotting the games, how else can fans voice their displeasure with ownership refusing to address the bullpen and support an otherwise very special team.
This is a special team and that’s not to say it’s all that is needed for a championship, but it’s on the right road. As far as booing goes, I’m not for it but I understand it. Back in the 50’s, the crowds at Crosley Field were almost as loud as the #1 Philly Boo Birds. If they want to have more near capacity crowds like last night, ownership is going to need to respond to the fans as regards the weak bullpen. Last off season, after shipping off Iglesias and Bradley for next to nothing, Krall picked up a number of relievers that had been released from other teams, and now at mid-season we have the result. I know the old baseball adage that you don’t spend dollars or players for relief pitching. But, if the Reds ownership really wants to be in the playoffs this year, they will spend for solid relief, not castoffs.
Three batters and out for Garrett in the 7th; three batters and out for Doolittle in the 11 account for 5 earned runs allowed. How many times have we seen similar meltdowns downs from this pair?
Bell’s DNA is programmed to default to lefty vs lefty when possible. The 3 batter rule magnifies the issue because Bell leads with a LH pitcher vs a RH batter if the following hitters are LH.
The GM either needs to get lefty bullpen guys all off the roster or get effective guys lefty relievers onto the roster
+2
Yep. Like I’ve said before, have to “Bell proof” the roster.
Agree on the last sentence. It gets tiring to see positive starts wasted over and over by relievers who shouldn’t be on the roster.
DooHomer and AG have together easily cost this team the division lead
With current bullpen Gray has to go for a complete game today, GO REDS!
Get the game tomorrow and Reds are plus one over the 7 game set. Degrom is hurt so this is the time to catch the Mets as well. Still time to make up ground but a win tomorrow would be huge.
Good job Nick. Sounds like more and more people signing up for the AA fan club…like I did a long time ago. 🙂
Me too buddy. I mean the kid has hit 26 homers now in 300 AB’s. He has also drawn a decent # of BB’s this year. I would love to see what he can do if he was actually given enough playing time to get into a groove.
I agree. Same for Lopez. They both could flop but we won’t know until they are given a fair chance.
So typical for a Cincinnati sports team to get your hopes up, but then bring them crashing back down before you get too excited. I love this team, but it’s hard to see them really contending for the playoffs with the bullpen as it’s currently constructed. I know there was some tough luck last night, but they are just so unreliable. Especially now that Lorenzen is hurt again, and we still don’t know when Antone and Sims are coming back. Even if they return the first week of August (which seems like the best case scenario at this point), the Reds could be 10-12 games out by then. They desperately need to win today and acquire bullpen help ASAP.
Yes, Lorenzen has run before. Yes, Lorenzen has played the field before. Yes, Lorenzen has swing the bat before. None of that mattered last night. It was his first game of the season and he MIGHT be the only truly capable arm in the bullpen. He represented so much more than being a super utility player that allows Bell to over-manage the team with by playing matchups. Bell messed up big time which should surprise absolutely no one at this point.
Reds are missing Antone and Sims something fierce, but Santillan and Lorenzen were added to the bullpen as reinforcements. Instead, Bell repeatedly went to AG and Brach in high-leverage moments.
Definition of insanity.
I agree Doc. The definition of insanity was all I could think about when AG was pitching. It’s frustrating for us fans because no Reds beat writer will ask Bell why. Why do you refuse to use your top 5 prospect moved to the bullpen specifically for help? Why did you refuse to use Lorenzen on Friday or last night with the lead? Why does your obsession with lefty/righty matchups force you to completely empty out your bench by the 11th inning and have Wade Miley batting as the last hope? The guy gets a free pass for being liked by players way too much.
Yep.
The Reds called up Santillan on July 8 when Sonny Gray went on the IL. Do you know how many innings he has pitched since joining the bullpen? One. In mop up duty on Friday night.
He would have been the perfect choice to play long man that night after Mahle was gassed after 5. Instead, he doesn’t enter the game until a meaningless 9th inning.
I just don’t get it.
I had the same feelings about Lopez AB and Boxberger. I would also add that had Castillo pitched to the lone RHP due up in the top of the 7th before bringing Garrett in, the inning probably gets off to a better start than it did. This bullpen, though.
And these Brewers… they spend the first game back beaning our best players and then trot their trainer out there to pull their RH reliever after he allows a leadoff HR only to bring in a LOOGIE for Winker, Votto, and Stephenson, and possibly Naquin. I’ll be very interested to see if Boxberger is available today. I used to be pretty indifferent about the Brewers and kinda liked Counsell. They’re starting to change my mind. We’ve had their number and now they’re toeing the line to bring out all the stops.
I think the Boxberger “injury” bears investigation by MLB but since they pulled it against the Reds and not the Cardinals nothing will be done.
Brewers knocked Castellanos out that was big for them.
Bell going back to Garrett inexcusable, but explainable. The interviews with players published at the break were all “he believes in us, he cares for us”
That’s great—if it’s your mom. Does Bell care about winning? I know he’s been given a stable full of nags, but he doesn’t have to run Garrett out again unless he wants to let him know “I believe in you, Amir!”
Manager of the year
Bob has his mirage of a contender to justify his plausible inaction
Owner of the year
The Reds still have a winning record, but these last 2 games have been brutal as far as the standings go, as they are now 6 games behind Milwaukee and 5 behind SD for the Wild Card.
However, the Brewers have a tougher schedule in the 2nd half, and they still need to make two more trips to the West Coast for 7 games against San Fran and LA. The furthest the Reds travel in the 2nd half is Miami at the end of August.
It’s only been a 2 game losing streak, although the results are amplified given the opponent. But the Reds are not out of this just yet. The Reds need to make the most of their remaining 7 games on the current homestand and go no worse than 5-2 against Milwaukee, Mets, and Cards.
But, not to state the obvious, if they don’t get help for their bullpen, and soon, things do not look good.
Some tough luck, but the bullpen strikes again. Any way you slice it up, giving up 7 runs is not good. Got to find some relievers that can get the job done consistently. Very unfortunate for Lorenzen. I don’t mind that Bell had him in the game, and agree it was a fluke injury. I don’t like that this isn’t the first time this season that the Reds have burned through their position players in a game that didn’t even go that deep into extra innings. Got to manage the roster and personnel better than that, especially in an era where there is 26 guys on the roster.
I hate watching Adames play for the Brewers. I just keep thinking what could have been if our owner allowed our GM to actually make some moves to improve the club over the offseason.
If the Reds had acquired a real SS and just kept Iglesias and Bradley, they would easily would be winning the division.
Winker is killing this team too.
On June 19th, he was batting .344. He is now at .293.
In 1 month, he has lost 51 POINTS off his average. That is REALLY hard to do this late in a season.
And he only has ONE game with more than 1 hit in that time frame.
And yet AA sits and sits and sits…… Not to mention Akikyama, if a person is possessed by handedness splits
Winker hit that line drive in the 10th with runners at first and 3rd 109.1 mph. Second hardest hit ball of the game. The xBA on that ball was .710
If its thru 2b its a game winning double as India scores from first and hes the hero.
I hated seeing the bullpen give up 7 runs, hated losing another game to the Brewers, but the worse blue was the injury to Lorenzen. He is a gamer with skill. So in 2 days we may have lost our best relief option and our best hitter at least for awhile. And Adames would have looked good in a Reds uniform.
Probably went a little overboard there on utilizing Lorenzen in his FIRST GAME BACK! Coulda just batted Aquino there and played him in RF. KISS.
Lorenzen went in the OF because he was already in the game having pitched, so they’d have run out of PH one before Miley’s turn when Freeman would have had to play OF after he took his shot with Lopez for Shogo. Freeman PH there would have been lefty vs lefty
Lorenzen is the one who talked up his extra ability to pinch hit, pinch run (as numerous other ML pitchers frequently do plus ML has been our ‘designated PR’ in the past) and play OF defense. Any notion he needed to somehow be ‘eased back in’ after months of a targeting rehab opportunity is so much mindless complaining drivel
Castellanos being unavailable also put Bell in a shorthanded bench situation
Beelicker – Bell could have had Lopez play in the OF. Lopez has seen recent time in the OF in the Mexican winter league. He could have used Aquino as the pinch hitter instead of having to make two moves and burn a position player. There were options, he just burned one he didn’t need to and it hurt the Reds later in the game.
I agree that Winker is hurting the team, he is making his All Star selection look like a fluke. But, the reality is that Bell has no choice but to hope he comes out of this funk.
The Reds’ LH RPs are just brutal!
Osich has no business being on this team. I know at my age I couldn’t hit him, but EVERY MLB player who walks to the plate KNOWS they can. This is not to say that “soft tossers” can pitch in MLB, but his ball just hangs out there and says “hit me!”
As noted above, Doolittle needs to “reinvent himself” in the bullpen, not on the mound in a tight game. I tend to agree about booing Garrett last night, but his previous work and his loudmouthed bluster make him ripe for this reaction.
Heck, bring up Lodolo. . .he couldn’t be any worse than what there have out there right now. Hate to say it, but Brandon Finnegan would be better than Osich! He needs to be DFA’d TODAY!
Sanmartin and Finnegan both L need brought to replace Doolittle and Osich
I’m all about sweeping bullpen change but I don’t want two lefties replacing the two lefties. Bell is too obsessed with lefty matchups and giving him 4 lhp bullpen arms just feeds his addiction.
Or replace AG. He is a great story but not getting it done this year. Tim Adelman is at 3.0. He is a battler and would think we could use a swingman. Maybe that is Hoffman. But I would be trying something else in our pen
Thank goodness the Brewers decided to run their “B” team out there today. The Reds need a win. Last night’s loss has the feeling of a morale killer for the team.
Hopefully Reds can figure Burnes out for getting the win as expecting a quality start from Gray and bullpen recovery today.
I am a fan of our GM and our pitching coach. I would challenge ownership to find a way to open the purse strings up more than they did this winter to help with the bullpen. An average bullpen would likely have CIN in first place this year. No offense to the arms that put in the work each and every day. However, at this level, if you are not getting it done, you should not receive any high leverage outings. There are always other roles until you prove yourselves.
I am not going to fault Bell for decisions in which he has limited options. Give him a solid bullpen and the results would speak for themselves.
We’ll need to salvage today’s game and then quickly make some deals if we want to compete. In my opinion, we have found a way to compete without any support financially from ownership.
Sending money toward payroll is much better than campaign contributions in my opinion.
I normally have not faulted Bell for his bullpen choices because his quality choices are limited to nonexistent. However, I felt like sending Garrett right back out in the same situation he had failed at on Friday was a poor choice for the team.
It was a situation where winning at least 1 game in this series was more important than rehabilitating Garrett’s ego for the long haul. They had the lead with 9 outs to go and should have been making maximum effort to close out a victory.
@Jim
See my comment above: by doing that Bell earns the “love of his players” by saying “I believe in you, my dear Amir”
But no win was earned as we saw
Castellanos said in his pre ASG interviews that he is all about being honest and keeping it real—if that’s the case then he’ll see through Bell—if he hasn’t already
Rojo> Along these lines Bell reminds me of Dusty B. I thought Dusty was a really great long haul manager but had absolutely no sense of important game urgency (See: Cubs and Angels aside from the Reds). If he would have ever been paired with a bench coach who had a sharp sense of game urgency and to whom he would have listened, who knows how many World Championships he might have won.
The Reds finally put Lopez out of his misery and sent him back to AAA. Hopefully he can get back on track now that Bell has completely derailed his groove.
I despise it when the Reds do that to a player
It seems to be a common occurrence lately. Just look at the bullpen where a Top-5 prospect sits unable to help.
100% agree. He is did it with AA also. When a hitter is smoking hot you don’t sit him and run someone out there who is struggling. As a result you usually have 2 hitters that aren’t hitting. You always go with the hot hand.
Can’t believe Lorenzen pulled up lame running home last night. We need to start seeing Santillan more. This was such an important series, and we’ve let it slip through our fingers.
A statement series, for sure.
And the Brewers have done all the talking
Lopez optioned back to Louisville….
… to make room for Sonny Gray back on the roster. Perhaps this means Lorenzen is NOT going on the IL? Maybe his injury is not as bad as hoped …?
Also — looked up the lineup. Castellanos still out. Naquin in right, Shogo in center.
The lineup makes me sick to my stomach. He definitely is getting his lefty fix today.
Odds are they are holding their hand on Lorenzen’s condition with this move but could well IL him in a day or 2 or 3 or…..
Meanwhile, the team plays apparently short 2 position players (Lopez and Castellanos) and possibly 3 (Farmer sitting in the 3rd game back after being the May-June Iron Man.
RHB Farmer also still has the lingering abdominal issues after effects playing the delayed game late inning marathon, so he’s an easy decision to sit
Same with RHB Stephenson having caught extras and late so he’s not going behind the plate in favor of Barnhart, so in order to get his RHB in he’d be replacing Votto vs RHP at 1st to get him in there
RHB Castellanos is still obviously unavailable …
Switch hitter Lopez maybe for the dinged up India would’ve still been batting LH if he was still on the roster … and so the only other RHB to even consider would be Aquino for Shogo (and the Shogo Nogo crowd would be mindlessly and vociferously complaining if that occurred) or Naquin … so one additional RHB is the only option possible for Bell to even consider in not ‘getting his fix’ ? This was just about the only lineup available to Bell i’d say
And if it came down to a leveraged PH vs LHP in the game or they try switching it up after Burnes wears down you’ve got Stephenson, Aquino and Farmer with the only OF flexibility in AA. I’d rather have AA as a PH option late vs LHP (likely Hader) on the bench rather than Shogo or Naquin and able to target pitching around AA fixed in the lineup
I predict Castellanos plays tomorrow as swelling goes down …
I was referring to the bench depth as the game progresses. With Lopez shipped out, they appear to have only 3 guys available. Aquino, Stephenson and Farmer. Yet they shipped Lopez out to activate Gray versus moving out a pitcher
Down the stretch roster:
C Barnhart/Stephenson
1B Votto
2B India
SS Barrerra/Farmer
3B Suarez
LF Winker
CF Naquin/Senzel
RF Castellanos
DH (when applicable) Moustakas/Aquino
SP1 Gray
SP2 Castillo
SP3 Mahle
SP4 Miley
SP5 Gutierrez/Santillan (hot hand)
CL Antone (if healthy)
RHSU Sims (if health) or trade candidate
LHSU Trade Candidate
Tied or Winning RP’s (in addition to above) Hunter Greene
Role RP’s Garrett/Hembree/Brach/Hendrix/Lorenzen/Hoffman/Doolittle
That points to 1-2 key trade acquisitions to stabilize the bullpen
Still Confident in this club moving Forward.
Need keep main players Healthy.
just like Our top Prospects.
Lodolo Barrera Greene.
Not ready to Compete for a WS.
Once those Players arrive.
That is when time to think about bigger things.
Yeah you’re right about not ready for the WS yet
The core is there. We’re getting a taste. Getting impatient
Yea think most are Impatient.
The taste is the reason why, I am Being Patient though.
Since IMO, the Whole core not in the show yet.
Frustrating to lose always.
But have Young Core to look forward too.
All things considered, the Reds are fortunate to be where they are. The offense is in a major funk lately and the bullpen is starting to have another meltdown. The numbers for our four core players over the last 7 games: Winker .161 (5-31) Castellanos .231 (6-26) Suarez .120 (3-25) Votto .160 (4-25). Not good. And then there’s the bullpen: Garrett (7.22 era) Doolittle (4.65 era) Hendrix (5.46 era).
The front office needs to wake up and start doing something or we will be trailing the Cubs and Cardinals in addition to the Brewers.
1 Add a top reliever. Richard Rodriguez (Pirates)
2 Add a hot bat. Mitch Haniger (22 homers with an OPS of .828). Haniger has logged 598 innings as a center fielder.
3 Add a shortstop. Jose Barrero (10 homers with an OPS of .873).
4 Add LHP Reiver Sanmartin from Louisville (2.70 era and 1.01 whip) to the bullpen.
2 Add another bat. Mitch Haniger
The offense is in a huge slump right now but I’d be okay if no trades were made to bring in another offensive player as long as Senzel comes back soon and they add Barrero.
A lineup of India, Winker, Castellanos, Votto, Stephenson/Barnhart, Senzel, Suarez, Barrero is good enough to win the central. Then you have Naquin, AA, Farmer, Shogo, and whichever catcher is on the bench as your top options as pinch hitters late. This puts the Reds in a lot better situation than they are now where guys like Freeman/Heineman/Payton are relied on heavily in key situations.
My focus would be on the bullpen. I would love at least two really good controllable bullpen arms at the deadline. That offense above could get scorching hot and the Reds still wouldn’t win the Central with the bullpen arms they have now…even if/when Antone and Sims return.
Red Bullpen=Horrific
the 2 weeks prior to the AS break was a mirage…