The last game of the first half. A huge game for both the Cincinnati Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati could climb to within 4.0 games with a win and take the series. Milwaukee takes the win and they head into the break with the same 6.0 game lead that they held when the series began. First pitch is set for 2:10pm ET
|Jonathan India – 2B||Luis Urias – 3B|
|Jesse Winker – LF||Christian Yelich – LF|
|Nick Castellanos – RF||Willy Adames – SS|
|Joey Votto – 1B||Omar Narvaez – C|
|Tyler Stephenson – C||Avisail Garcia – RF|
|Tyler Naquin – CF||Jace Peterson – 2B|
|Eugenio Suárez – 3B||Rowdy Tellez – 1B|
|Mike Freeman – SS||Jackie Bradley Jr. – CF|
|Luis Castillo – SP||Brandon Woodruff – SP|
Since June began we’ve seen a very different Luis Castillo on the mound. His ERA in seven starts since then is 2.00 across 45.0 innings with 27 hits, 16 walks, 2 home runs, and 42 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting just .172/.253/.242 against him in that stretch in 172 plate appearances.
There are some details in his splits worth paying attention to. Righties are hitting .253/.308/.403 against him. Lefties are hitting .265/.358/.386 against him. Left-handed hitters are drawing significantly more walks, but they also do less damage when they make contact. Righties rarely walk against him, but they do a bit more damage when they do put the bat on the ball. Castillo’s home and road splits are similar – the OPS difference is .001. But on the road he’s holding batters to 30 points of on-base percentage lower, but guys are hitting for more power than they do against him at home.
Pitch usage from 2021
The other side of the dynamic duo, Brandon Woodruff has dominated through 17 starts for the Brewers this season. The All-Star has posted a 2.10 ERA in 107.1 innings while allowing just 59 hits, walking 25, and striking out 125.
Somehow the Reds haven’t seen him yet this season. Two of his worst four starts of the year have come in the last four times out. In 14 of his 17 starts he’s allowed fewer than three runs. But on June 17th he allowed five to Colorado and then the last time out on July 5th he allowed four to the Mets. I’m not sure if that’s supposed to give you hope or crush your dreams.
As you can imagine with that overall line, his splits aren’t going to be favorable in any way. With that said, right-handed hitters are doing better as they have a .173/.226/.306 line against him compared to a .145/.211/.215 line from left-handed hitters. Righties show significantly more power, but still slug just .306….. At home hitters have an advantage against him with a .199/.249/.330 line compared to when he’s been on the road where they have hit just .122/.191/.193.
Pitch usage from 2021
When and Where
- Game time: 2:10pm ET
- Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: It’s a dome.
News and Notes
Another off day for Kyle Farmer
The Reds are trying to give Kyle Farmer as much rest as they can and hope he can come out of the break a bit healthier as he’s been playing with a nagging injury.
Jose Barrero and Nick Lodolo in the Futures Game today
Jose Barrero will be starting at shortstop and hitting 2nd for the National League in today’s Futures Game. Pitcher Nick Lodolo is scheduled to pitch at some point. The game is at 3pm ET because MLB can’t figure out how to showcase the event and instead run it during the final games of the first half every year….. You can watch it on MLB Network or MLB.com if you’d like.
The MLB Draft is tonight
Tonight at 7pm the 1st round will take place. The Reds have three picks on the night – 17th, 30th, and 35th. Day 2 will be rounds 20-10 and day 3 will be rounds 11-20. There will be a recap on Monday morning here at Redleg Nation, but for more in depth draft coverage I’ll have all 20 rounds with information on every player over at RedsMinorLeagues.com within a few minutes of each selection for the Reds.
NL Central Standings
Playoff odds via Fangraphs