Things were looking really good for the Cincinnati Reds. They looked primed to secure their sixth consecutive win, as they had a 98.7% win probability with a 6-1 lead in the 8th inning.
The Reds bullpen entered play on Tuesday with a 17.0 inning scoreless streak. Tonight, they only needed to cover two innings with a 6-run lead. They could not get it done. Here is how the night went down:
The Reds got the scoring started in the third inning on a Jonathan India 400-foot, RBI double.
A few batters later, Joey Votto tripled to make it 3-0.
Kyle Farmer kept the offense humming along with a 2-run home run in the 4th inning to increase the lead of 5-0. Farmer would finish the evening a triple shy of the cycle.
Luis Castillo continued his return to dominance on Tuesday night. He allowed just 1 run, 3 hits, 1 walk and struck out 4 over seven innings. He left with a 6-1 lead.
It was all downhill from there. Cionel Perez gave up a two run home run in the 8th. Brad Brach got out his jam in the 8th, but he did not have it in the 9th. He left with runners on second and third base after a painful error by Eugenio Suarez, with a 6-4 lead and 0 outs. Heath Hembree came in. He exited with the game tied and the winning run on third. Amir Garrett came on. He struck out Andrew Benintendi, but Salvador Perez hit a ball off the wall to end the misery.
The Reds will go for a series win tomorrow. The Reds are 21-13 in their last 34 games.
|Kansas City Royals (36-49)||7||7||0|
|Cincinnati Reds (44-41)||6||11||3|
|W: Lovelady (2-0) L: Hembree (2-4)|
|FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread|
Biggest Play of the Game
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Heath Hembree allowing a 2-RBI hit to Nicky Lopez, who advanced to third base on an error by Aristides Aquino. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 53.0% (from 69.7% to 16.8%).
Tyler Stephenson had a 3-hit night. His OPS on the season is now up to .814.
Kyle Farmer homered and finished a triple away from the cycle. For all of his shortcomings against RHP, Farmer has a career .758 OPS vs LHP (.749 entering tonight this season).
Eugenio Suarez had a big insurance RBI. Ironically, it had a 76.1 EV. He had two hard hit balls on the night that went for outs.
Luis Castillo now has a 2.00 ERA in 7 starts since June 1st. The funny thing is, this is probably one of Castillo’s worst starts of the year. He allowed 12 hard hit balls, but he only walked 1 batter. He absolutely deserved a start like this after the awful luck he had early in the year when nothing could go right.
The Reds had a wild night defenisvely. They had some really nice plays, but also some ugly ones (more below). Aristides Aquino had a pair of nice catches, Tyler Naquin had a great sliding catch, Shogo Akiyama had a nice running grab and Kyle Farmer played his usual solid defense, starting the turn of a slick double play.
Cionel Perez ended the Reds bullpen streak of 17 consecutive scoreless innings. He struck out Whit Merrifield (career .845 OPS vs LHP) on a beautiful 98 MPH fastball up and away. He then proceeded to allow a bomb to LHB, Andrew Benintendi (career .679 OPS vs LHP). Perez certainly has some talent, but he just has no place being an MLB roster at the moment, especially for a team hoping to compete.
Eugenio Suarez had a brutal error on a ball hit right to him. It could have potentially been a double play (Reds would have been up 6-3, 1 out away from a win with only 1 runner on base), but at least should have been one out. Aristides Aquino had a chance to throw out the tying run two batters later. He threw a missile, right on line, but air-mailed it (Bell praised the throw in the post-game in a do-or-die situation). The Reds would have been an out away from a win still.
Jonathan India had to leave the game early. He missed yesterday due to soreness after being hit by a pitch on Sunday.
David Bell said Jonathan India was "quite a bit less than 100%" with the way he ran, which is why he left the game in the 6th inning. Bell said India may start tomorrow. #Reds
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) July 7, 2021
Not so random thoughts….
Tonight was a really tough loss. The Reds obviously need bullpen help, but the defense was probably just as much to blame. These kind of things do happen though. Remember, the Reds just won five consecutive games where they were trailing in every game (meaning their opponent blew a lead each night). This was a missed opportunity, but I certainly would have gladly taken a road series win before this series started. Hopefully the Reds can get it done tomorrow with Sonny Gray on the mound.
I thought that David Bell made the correct call having Amir Garrett pitch to Salvador Perez with a base open instead of Carlos Santana with the bases loaded (2 outs in the 9th, tie game). Garrett has a really bad 5.88 BB/9 rate, so you don’t want him pitching with the bases loaded and walking in the winning run. Perez only walks in 2.3% of his plate appearances, while Santana walks in 15.5%. It would have been really tough for Garrett to get Santana out with his lack of strike throwing.
The Brewers were rained out tonight at the Mets, meaning the Reds are now back 6.5 games. The Brewers will be playing a pair of 7-inning doubleheaders tomorrow before the Reds play a four game series against them in Milwaukee. The Brewers have elected to pitch tomorrow’s scheduled SP, Corbin Burnes in the first game against Jacob DeGrom. That is a high risk, high reward call for the Brewers. It gives them a better chance of sweeping the DH tomorrow, but higher chance of them getting swept also. Brewers were +245 tonight and -147 tomorrow. I am assuming they are now slight underdogs in both games. I’m not sure that’s the move that I would have made with a 6.0 game lead. Let’s hope it backfires on them.
I loved India/Stephenson/Castellanos hitting 1-3 vs a LH SP. I think the Reds should do this all season. All of those guys have hit LHP really well all year.
Help is on the way! Michael Lorenzen pitched a scoreless inning in his first rehab appearance.
Michael Lorenzen looked great on his rehab assignment in a perfect eighth inning.
His fastball hit 97, but his slider was his best pitch.
— Charlie Goldsmith (@CharlieG__) July 7, 2021
Reds at Royals
Wednesday, 2:10 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Sonny Gray (3.27 ERA) vs Brady Singer (4.74 ERA)