A four-run seventh-inning rally sparked by Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez home runs led the Cincinnati Reds to a 6-2 victory over the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (44-40) | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Kansas City Royals (35-49) |
2 | 7 | 1 |
| W: Gutierrez (4-3) L: Minor (6-7) |
|||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Reds stared down two of their statistical nemeses this season — facing left-handed starters and road games — to rally late. What we saw tonight is a good team that was able to take advantage of a weaker team and do what was necessary to win. That is something we have not seen a whole lot of in recent years from these Cincinnati Reds — mainly because they’ve always been the weaker team that was victimized this way by better teams.
With their fifth consecutive win and Milwaukee’s 4-2 loss to the Mets, second-place Cincinnati pulled within six games of the first-place Brew Crew (five behind in the loss column).
The Offense
In the second inning, Tyler Stephenson led off with a double, and Joey Votto followed with a single that moved Stephenson to third. Suarez hit into a double play which scored Stephenson to give Cincinnati a 1-0 lead.
With his team down 2-1 in the top of the seventh, Castellanos led off the inning and did something about it …
Blast-ellanos gives us some fireworks! ? pic.twitter.com/hQhfunT3Df
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) July 6, 2021
Very interestingly, Statcast listed the xBA (expected batting average) for the home run at .930. Just wondering where in MLB that is not a hit if it was clearly out of the most spacious park in the game.
Royals starter Mike Minor followed by walking Stephenson and Votto back to back, ending the lefthander’s evening. Then, against reliever Kyle Zimmer, Suarez obliterated one …
431 feet of good vibes. pic.twitter.com/1TRdkQjc7g
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) July 6, 2021
… with 111 mph exit velocity for a three-run, go-ahead shot — paving the way for yet another come-from-behind victory. (And Statcast got this one right — 1.000 xBA.) 😉
Later in the game, Suarez smoked one at 102 mph off the bat that turned into a double play. The quality of his contact is showing flashes of becoming more consistently strong.
As in the series against the Cubs, Cincinnati hits were at a premium. The Reds scored six runs on only six hits. No Reds batter had more than one hit.
The Pitching
Starter Vladimir Gutierrez had a nice game, allowing only five hits, two walks and two runs over six innings.
That's nasty!
Vladimir Gutierrez with 6 K in 3.2 IP. pic.twitter.com/hM5Ex4Jxc6
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) July 6, 2021
He showed definite signs of tiring in the sixth inning, but got out of a runners-on-second-and-third-and-one-out situation with no additional damage.
Ryan Hendrix, Josh Osich and Sean Doolittle (now with a pitch other than just a fastball???) finished things up, allowing the primary late-inning relievers to rest for at least a day.
Notes Worth Noting
The win was Cincinnati’s fifth consecutive come-from-behind win for the first time since May 1995. We all know they never give up, and the numbers show that.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, July 6, 8:10 p.m. ET
Luis Castillo (3-10, 5.08 ERA) vs TBA
It’s a fun streak, but I would be willing to accept a take-the-lead-and-never-look-back victory tomorrow.
What’s your prediction? Reds within 2 by the break.
I’m gonna go with 3 back, then they’ll sweep them at GABP coming out of the break to move into a tie atop the division.
J and Tim, instead of predictions about the future, how about sticking with the Reds at six back now and being hopeful? I appreciate the enthusiasm, but no reason for being overly optimistic at the moment. They got six hits today. Again. Those hits just happened to be timely and decisive against a crummy opponent. Let’s do this one game at a time, gents. Have a good’un!
against a crafty veteran lefty starter is much more relevant. also working 6 bases on balls + Winker getting himself plunked
Fans are going to be fans. As long as the players take it one game at a time then we can guess til the cows come home and it doesn’t matter.
Another great win all around!
I saw some rumblings of Trevor Story on them social media things. What would take to realistically get a deal done or do people think they should even make a deal? I know his road numbers aren’t very good at all, but I still think he’s an upgrade over farmer. If Suarez is indeed turning a corner a lineup below might not be to bad
India
Story
Winker
Castellanos
Votto
Suarez
Naquin/Aquino/Shogo
Barnhart/Stephenson
.184/.279/.368 away from the friendly cloud cover
Those are troubling road #s … the thin air in Denver doesn’t support breaking balls breaking all that well is the theory, so if he’s a weaker breaking ball hitter he’s prolly not gonna touch those home numbers away from Coors Field
Count me among those who are not overly excited about surrendering assets of value for a two-month rental of a guy who is having a down year in his free agency year. If you can get him for nothing and the ownership is willing to take on the salary, heck yeah.
Cy Minor had walked only Aquino prior to him issuing back to back walks after Casty’s homer in the 7th which was our 3rd hit.Reds will have to hit to win and last night was a big big win but we don’t win unless we homer and Suarez’s came after back to back walks.Cy Minor was left in at least 2 batters to long.Reds have won last 4 games and were out hit in all 4 games and that usually doesn’t happen very often.Pitching has been and will continue to be good enough and I have no doubts and rallying late against the Cubs whose pen has went South and the Royals isn’t much to write home about.I do believe we will see and it maybe today that this offense,especially with Suarez hitting will start scoring often and early and when it does look out.We could go on a bunch of winning streaks but it really comes down to the offense
I doubt seriously Big Bob will pay a penny more for a SS when he knows the “SS of the future” is in AAA and can be called any time. I’m all for doing what it takes so that Suarez NEVER plays there again. That was the only good thing about the absence of India tonight. IF Suarez IS making progress in the head department then mostly likely SS will move him backwards mentally anyway. No one wins when he “tries” to play there.
If he’s not a significant upgrade at the plate it makes no sense. Farmer has been more than solid in the field and has some big hits.
I agree and, for what it’s worth, Larkin speaks highly of him. I know, Barry seems unwilling, as a broadcaster, to say negative things about Reds players. But he is a HOF shortstop, and he also seems to view Farmer as having value beyond his on-field performance.
Agree Tom on story. I don’t know if this will post in the right place. There is no replay button under your post.
Vlad will be useful no matter where they decide to put him. I like him.
Bell just said it on the postgame. He pitches backwards which is really strange for a rookie! Maybe that will play more in the NL? Flyball pitcher and gabp though? He’s been much worse at home. Same issue with Mahle. They have to iron that out!
He’s only had 2 bad outings, and both were against San Diego. It’d be early to say he is good or bad at home, considering the sample size (3 home games).
Vlad has a certain something, even in mini-jams, that bodes well regardless how he’s used.
Aquino has a 1.016 ops for the year! 8 hits and 7 are for extra bases! He’ll take a walk too (.349 obp). I think the guy has a chance to be a Adam Duvall style starter sometime/somewhere?
Bell always catches heat, but he gives these starters some room. I thought Vlad was going to give them 3 there, but Bell gave him a chance and he knuckled down!
KC is flat and just going thru the motions I think. Undecided tomorrow and young guy Brady Singer on Wed and he’s struggled. Need the sweep!!
Shooting for their third 6 game winning streak tomorrow. That ain’t bad!
LHP Bubic maybe + whatever other bullpen leftovers they got
Make that somewhere be Cincinnati NLT next year after he finishes this year as the RH batting platoon partner in CF.
I like me some Aquino, he just has too many good hitters ahead of him.
I say bite the bullet and acknowledge AA is the 4th outfielder/ platoon partner with Naquin. If that makes Akiyama or Senzel expendable, so be it.
Career MLB stats Aquino/ Senzel
OPS: Aquino .853 (321 PAs); Senzel .704 (616 PAs)
ISO: Aquino .301; Senzel .149
wRC+: Aquino 114; Senzel 83
And here is the really surprising one to me:
OBP: Aquino .315; Senzel .308
I’d really look to make Senzel a utility guy going further. However if either Senzel or Shogo could bring back a helpful piece, then pull the trigger. This team is different than any team we’ve had since the 90’s. The wins in 1 run games. The extra inning wins. The come from behind wins. The 1, 2 punch from Winker and Castellanos. The farm system producing usable talent. I think they are going to as unstoppable as a freight train with a good bullpen.
I agree Jim. AA appears more than capable of being spot starter or 4th OF’er. Seems obvious Shogo isn’t in the current plans so might as well move him. I like Senzel when he’s healthy but unfortunately, he can’t stay on the field.
Kind of hard to make a decision on Shogo when he never plays. Kind of hard to trade Shogo when he never plays. He does give you a good glove, speed and usually a good at bat. Everyone seems to think Naquin is the answer, but he is regressing pretty quick. Naquin is trade bait to me, with Shogo and Aquino playing CF. Senzel is too injury prone.
I concur, Jim. Aquino just plain does not get enough at bats.
You all know by now I’m a AA fan so I agree. Let him play more.
Aquinos plate discipline is much better this year than in the past. He is getting on base be it thru walks, hits or whatever. And that triple last night shows just how fast he is once he gets going, and it was a triple to right center! Needs to play more.
Memo to all Reds’ pitchers, throw the fastball more. Don’t bail out bad to mediocre hitters with hangers.
A well placed fastball is still the most effective pitch a pitcher has.
Gutierrez had alotta late life on his fastball, especially deep in the game. Him and other Reds pitchers need to show more confidence in their fastballs.
Memo to Lopez, calm down, you look like you’re going up their with the weight of the world on your shoulders, relax at the plate, lose the nervous energy and you’ll be fine.
Geno homerun was the best barreled home run I’ve seen all year, definition of a missile shot.
Gutierrez set up that meatball homerun it thiunk it was 3-2 to be 94+ mph high heat & if you can trust gamecast it was up out of the strike zone … dude crushed a good pitch maybe?
silly me, that was Santana’s *double* to CF lol
High heat up out of the zone?
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/reds-vs-royals/2021/07/05/633363#game_state=final,game_tab=play-by-play,game=633363
I believe that crushed monster shot was only the 2nd HR from 74 PA vs LHP for Saurez this season? Hopefully a hanging happy harbinger of a wholey hammered host more to soon come …
It was off a righty…..you’re not a night owl like me. Get some rest)))
i’m an upside down since i was born, i guess … from my Mom’s side of the family, she said … when the sun comes up i start getting sleepy lol … now that you mention it i do remember now congratuating KC in the game thread for switching out Minor to mistakely matchup the reliever to Saurez’s righty vs righty side as would be expected
Cubs lost 10th straight — got clocked by the Phillies, 13-3.
And used their version of Blandino on the mound for the 3rd time in a couple of weeks or less. Love it.
Cubs are going to sell and most likely will not be a factor down the stretch.
They’ll always have 2016
They’re good until 2120 in my book
am i the only one who thinks these wins deserve a Jim Kirk…” you did what you had to do. turn losing into a fighting chance to win”
2 thoughts, I think Wink needs a day or two off to just get his head cleared a little, and please, I am sure Mister Sadek is a fine gentleman, but I just cant take the over enthusiasm on average fielding plays and every other action. I actually have now moved to watching the other teams broadcast.
As compared to listening to Thom’s “get off my lawn, I’m entitled to this job because of my daddy” grouchiness? I’ll take Sadak any day. He truly appreciates and enjoys the privilege of getting to call baseball games. I also like him because he’s more like me, just a nerdy 40+ yo guy.
That’s what he has going for him and for that reason I won’t complain too much—
Anyone >>> THom
I’m adopting my brother in law’s label for him—
“The Sadak”
“The Sadak is driving me nuts. I can’t take The Sadak anymore”
Etc
It’s therapeutic
I love LeCure, Giesenschlag, Jim Day & The Cowboy. They are all great,..especially the Cowboy and Jim Day. And I can tolerate Larkin and Welsh. But Sadak drives me crazy!!! It would help if he just cut the number of his words in half,..if someone would just put a sock in his piehole. Then, it would also be nice if he was not a jinx!!! John Sadak : “This guy has never got a hit in his life, and there’s no chance he will drive in this winning run for them. We’ve got this. 100% chance we’ve won. They don’t have a prayer of winning this game with this guy at bat. (then after the next pitch) “Well,..he really got into that one. It sailed over into the river. Game over. Reds lose. But the Reds sure almost won that game!!!” He’s a jinx,..and a blabbermouth!!! I rest my case. Go Reds!!!
Yes, I agree, Wink needs a night off, but Sadak has enthusiasm and is new to the Major League and new to the Reds, so I am cutting him some slack. Cowboy is by far the best broadcaster of the bunch though.
…And the Cubs lose the 10th in a row… Brewers have 2 …
Let’s go retro……”Cubs going to Cub” may they ever continue to do so.
But now the really hard question. Come the trade deadline if the Cubs have Cubbed their way into a full fire sale; and, the Reds are still in the race(s), do the Reds bite on Javier Báez as a SS rental or is he a bridge too far?
Personally I don’t want a guy who leads the league in Ks.
Baez leads the league in Strikeouts and has an….ornery personality. The Cubs would need to add a pretty good prospect for me to be interested in taking him off their hands.
Firm no on “quick tag” Baez
Don’t like his clubhouse chemistry, and he strikes out too much
Story… how many contenders need an upgrade at SS? That will determine how much we have to pay for him. Sure his stats are down but how motivated would you be playing for that skeleton of a team? Sure he’s not great on the road so far this year but saying him moving to GABP will give him more of his road stats is far from correct. I think he’d hit well in GABP since it’s a hitters park, plus add on motivation in a pennant race, and motivation in a contract year…
Bottom line, if we can make a move with all the upcoming Brewers games and we don’t have to give up our top prospects I’d do the deal. Not really worth talking about tho since our owner is one of the worst in baseball and he’s forgotten his promise to the fans.
Our owner (and the rest of the ownership group) covered an $80m loss last year with their own money after spending a fortune in the previous off season to upgrade the team. Covering a $80m loss with no clarity as to if fans could attend games in 2021 made for a lean off season. Now, the fans are back. I think Bob C might surprise you. Or, you could help us out and buy the the team yourself.
I tend to agree with you. They stole Castellanos from the Cubs who was their best hitter. Its a bad contract, but they attempted to steal Moose from Milwaukee. They picked up Sonny Gray, Wade Miley, and Shogo. They took a shot with Bauer last year too.
Management has made alot more effort recently then the rest of the division. Sometimes it just doesn’t pan out. It was shocking how bad their offense was last year.
The biggest problem in my eyes for this year was their evaluation of the bullpen coming in. Those guys stunk! 1-5 vs Arizona could come back to haunt us.
Cite your source on the $80M number that can actually be backed up by something factual and not just the owner saying it.
Every single time in the history of baseball when actual documents have leaked from baseball teams we’ve seen that they actually made more money than they have claimed. Every time. I’ll trust their “losses” when they open the books to public scrutiny. Until then I am taking all of their claims with an enormous grain of salt. They use accounting tricks. They claim stuff like real estate development to claim losses on the baseball team (Cubs absolutely admitted to this one, for example).
I agree with Doug. The meager documentation which has made it into the public domain indicates MLB/ owners “loss” figures use projected pre-pandemic revenues and not actual revenues vs actual expenses in calculating their “losses”.
For example, let’s pretend I am a farmer who plans for my corn crop to return $500K of revenue at harvest time based on prior market conditions; and, I spend $350K planting, raising and harvesting the crop. However, when it gets to market, it sells for $250K. Are my losses $250K or $100K?
I think an independent accountant going by the book of accounting principles is going to say $100K is the loss but MLB owners would try to convince everyone the losses were $250K
Certified, audited, financial statements are the only way to verify the true profit/(loss) of ownership. Private entities are not obligated to provide them to the public.
Interesting. The Braves are the only public owned team and it looks like they turned a slight profit in 2020 during the season despite no fans.
p.s. This only ran thru September so there is the possibility that they ran at a small loss. I will eat Phil’s mustache is the reds truly lost 80 million dollars.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-the-braves-can-tell-us-about-mlb-financial-losses-in-2020/
@Doofus & M.A.S.> 2-3 decades ago I was the IT Director at a private non-profit org which got 90% of its revenues by billing services through agencies funded with tax $$$. The org I worked for got into a huge dispute with its primary customer public agency over what was allowable costs (depreciation mainly) to include in our billing rates for them. Our auditors dodged by attaching a statement to the org’s audit saying we had not violated GAAP but it was beyond their purview whether our calculated rates were in compliance with our contracts. Eventually the non-profit org lost those contracts and went out of existence over this dispute.
Here’s a guy for you. Eduardo Escobar with Arizona. He’s got 18 hrs/54 rbis and had 35/118 in 2019. Just a handful of at-bats in gabp, but he’s put up a .937 ops. He’s a switch-hitter and always dangerous. $7.5 mil and FA next year so wouldn’t cost that much. I’m not sure who’s the better SS between him & Geno, but you’d suffer there for sure. They’d always have Farmer on the bench atleast.
Unfortunately I could see Milwaukee adding Escobar and Danny Duffy or something equivalent.
Don’t think Escobar is playing much SS ? He is primarily a 2B and sometimes fills in @ 3B.
This Reds team is fun. I’m enjoying following them. They’ve exceeded my expectations so far. I rarely comment on Bell, largely because of my view on how much managers actually effect things game to game, but you can tell he’s pushed the right buttons to get these guys playing hard until the final out. Who knows, maybe they’ll out play expectations and make a run. Maybe ownership will actually try to help the team out by getting some relief help and a SS. I won’t hold my breath, but I’m also not going to count this team out regardless.
Another nice win, but I’m torn about Suarez and how I should feel about his night. Monster home run that was the big difference in the game. Yeah! But in his 3 other AB’s – one strikeout and two GIDP. Boo. And yes, I know that one of the grounders was hit pretty hard. I would love for Suarez to return to form but I’m very concerned that this IS his form. Here’s hoping that he’s heading to better results. If not, here’s hoping that the occasional home run doesn’t keep the Reds from playing him less, just hoping that his “little slump” is almost over.
Over his last 14 games (which works out to a touch more than 2 weeks on the calendar), Suárez AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS line works out to .234/.339/.426/.765 and his wRC+ is 114. On top of that, he has played butt kicking defense at 3B.
I’m for giving him room to breathe and be himself as long as this is himself.
El Tornillo de Corcho is indifferent to playing defense and situational hitting. It is time to give him a change of scenery.
I agree, Jim. His defense has been reminiscent of those two years when he really was good at third. And even during his futility, he has accounted for a decent number of runs. The bottom line for me is that the Reds are among the league leaders in a number of offensive categories.
I really enjoy Suarez as a player and teammate; he’s very easy to root for. Likewise, his Def has been outstanding of late. However, his plate approach is a mystery to me. I pull hard for him to succeed, but I don’t see where he has made many swing adjustments? He has displayed better plate discipline and has taken a few more BBs. However, he continues to struggle hitting any pitch on the outer 1/2, yet he takes many strikes on the inner 1/2. Unless he’s going to stop reaching for the ball in front of the plate, let it travel and hit it where’s it’s pitched, especially w/ 2 strikes, I think he’ll continue to struggle w/ consistency? In contrast, AA’s AB following ES’s HR was an awesome example of going the other way as was Naquin’s hit down the 3B line that scored him. Many others on the team have this ability so ES has people who can help him become a more complete hitter/player. Hopefully he’ll continue to work on it. His Que shot to RF the other night was refreshing as was the line drive back to the box. Those were much better attempts to stay inside the baseball.
@Jim
Overall I agree with this statement, except for this: who’s butt was he kicking when he let Wil Meyers walk from second to third while he let the ball roll away from him so he could argue with the umpire?
Although that situation did lead to a very satisfying image of Doolittle body checking Myers into left field!
The Reds have their third baseman of the future on the IL right now.
Loved Suarez’ home run last night!!! And I love his personality! But I HATE his strike outs!!!!!!!!!!! Sad thing is, when Geno first came to the Reds he made great contact. I thought he was the best hitter on the team back then. Now,..he’s an automatic out. But,..they (Bell, management) are going to play him no matter what I think. Even if he bats .150 for the year and has 250 Ks. So that being the case,..I hope he has a lot more clutch home runs like that one last night. Of course, I’ve got my doubts about that. Lopez gets his bat on the ball,……….every single time. We would have a lot better record overall if Lopez had gotten Geno’s at bats all year. Jmo. But there’s no doubt in my mind about that. Oh well.
I am one of the fans who have asked to bench him. I liked how he has moved* to bottom in the order, and benched at least once. He’s improved both, defense (more) and offense (less). Just looked at the 27th out yesterday, it was a very complicated play (technically and situationally) and Geno performed to help Doolitle to close the game.
It helps that Bell make decisions like the ones with Geno as often as needed. That helps the players to be out on comfort zone.
*note: i really wanted to say “he was displaced by India”
Geno hit by month
April
.130 BA, .229 OBP 4 HR
May
.186 BA, .250 OBP 8 HR
June
.200 BA, .291 OBP 4 HR
July
.308 BA, .357 OBP 1 HR
Not that he’s likely to keep up July’s numbers but if he continues to improve month in and month out he may very well start to hit like his career numbers.
Career
.254 BA, .325 OBP 30+ HR
And 185 to 200 strikeouts. Look at all the opportunities he gives away by striking out so much.
Do you have by any chance Geno’s RISP by month?
I have the impression he’s improved a bit there
@doofus, yes he is going to end up with 185+ strikeouts, but he’s always been a strikeout guy, in 19 he had 189 K’s. I’m just pointing out that things are moving in the right direction. It would be a lot more troubling if he was getting worse every month instead of better every month.
@JA, I don’t know where to find that, but he is tied 3rd in RBI’s, and given where he bats in the lineup, that’s not to bad. The numbers really start dropping after the top 4, Votto did miss some time, but India, and Farmer not so much.
NC 54
JW 49
ES 48
TN 48
JV 37
JI 32
TB 26
KF 26
The modicum of improvement lately from Suarez is Lucy teeing up the football right now. Time for a change of scenery.
What’s been his WAR and wRC+ per month?
Just trying to give you reasons to be optimistic instead of pessimistic. You do you, but Suarez isn’t going anywhere, so might as well look on the bright side.
Reds remain unbeaten in second half!
It’s hard to upgrade a bullpen that has an era around 1.00 over the past couple of weeks, no matter how much you spend for players.
Rental SS – no way. Reds are in good position for a continuing run for years. Don’t ruin it by depleting reserves, in personnel or money, for a short term shot.
Doc
+1 on SS comment
Re: bullpen- they’ve been so good lately, it really gives an excuse to not add to it. Factor in Lorenzen, Antone, Sims…that will be acquiring more talent for free when they return. So maybe they don’t need to? Although having to rely on Doolittle is bad for the ulcer…
Doolittle is bad on the heart as well!
Reds still need a REAL SS. Where does he come from, from inside or outside the organization? Rental or young or old?
Jose Barrero selected to replace (injured) CJ Abrams in Future Games.
I think the real SS will be Barrero to. The only question is how soon. I was really hoping he’d tear up AAA, and be called up to start after the break. That timeline seems a little far fetched now.
+1 on a rental shortstop. No way on Baez, a hothead that strikes out more than Suarez. Story, same thing, just not worth giving up any prospects for two months.
Had some time to kill yesterday so I picked up a friend and headed to the site of old Crosley field. Saw many games their with my Dad who worked at post office a block away. We had a wonderful time. They have a home plate painted where it was located as well as 3rd base. If you go inside City Gospel you can see 1st and 2nd base buried inside the building. Lots of photos and outside you have view of foul poles and a light tower that was used in first night game in 1935. Their is also a mural painted on the wall as you walk out towards where left field was located. Great memories!! I highly recommend it to all reds fans.
Sounds like a very pleasant trip back in time. Up until the neighborhood was torn out to make way for I-75, I always felt like I was in a special bubble at Crosley field.
Looking out through centerfield from the grandstand or field boxes, a person could see the city life going on all around them seemingly impervious to the game going on inside the park. I particularly liked the panorama of life on the green hillsides rising from the river and watching traffic move across the Western Hills Viaduct.
Jim, I ride thru there constantly trying to find those things. Help me if you can. What streets or intersections do i find these wonderful memories. My dad never owned a car. We took busses from govt square after arriving from N. Ky and walking from the terminal. I know Crosley was at findlay and Western but things have changed and I get completely lost. Help a guy who used to watch Temple, McMillan Jablonski and Big Klu. Thanks
Dalton ave is where you want to be. The city Gospel building sits on the site the ballpark used to be.
“Statcast listed the xBA (expected batting average) for the home run at .930. Just wondering where in MLB that is not a hit if it was clearly out of the most spacious park in the game.”
You know what they say about statistics…
Statcast expected BA doesn’t account for the direction the baseball was hit. Which is incredibly stupid and it’s why expected batting average is ridiculous and shouldn’t be used…. but that’s another argument for another day, I guess.
I’m guessing there is a ballpark or two where to dead center field that ball is caught on the warning track at the wall on a few days when the wind is blowing in.
Statcast is just estimating the distance of the ball based on exit velo and launch angle. It’s an estimate, but not always accurate because it’s not factoring in wind, altitude, or even the spin on the ball (top spin is going to not carry as far as back spin). It’s reasonably accurate, of course, on the distances – but there are times when it’s going to be off a little bit because of certain factors that it ignores.
As for what they say about statistics….. well, they say a lot. But what they should say is that you need to understand what they are actually doing before using them.
As I recall, Suarez used to hit a fair number of his homers to right. I might be wrong, but my sense is that he’s hitting a much higher percentage of them to left now. And I think that pretty well sums up his hitting woes. He looks like he’s making a tiny bit of effort to go the other way once in a while, but he’ll never be a great hitter again unless he commits to it. I’m rooting for him, but he’s been making it hard lately.
Dittos! Luv the guy! You can see him make small attempts, but it’s far fm polished. Fm my experience, he just doesn’t trust he can let the ball travel and get deep and still hit w/ authority. This is why I would start w/ tee work off his right leg and a lot of soft toss work away and then soft BP on the field so he can relax and see the results. The way infields play him to pull, he could hit a 15 hop ground ball to normal 2B position and have scored another 10-15 runs by now. Again, Reds best hitters do w/ regularity and even our catchers R capable of hitting the ball the other way. That dinger was AWESOME, but so R the oppo base hits and productive outs that move runners and score runs.
When he was at his best he was a middle-away hitter, not a slugger
I’m not sold on a trade for Story. His average this year at GABP is .000 and he is abysmal on the road. He certainly looks to benefit from the lowered movement on pitches and the hitter-friendly outfield fences of Coors field. Farmer is better than Story on the road and in almost every road ballpark. Heavy investment for very little short-term return. Am I missing something?
Spot on Tim! Story is NOT the answer to the Reds current SS challenge!
Agreed. No to Story
alot of negative comments about Suarez on this site. I will say he got himself in shape this offseason and has been a dependable player who has been in the line up everyday. his defense at 3rd has been good and he has not been a statue on the bases. i like the 2021 version of Geno better than the 2019/2020 version. he was headed down the path of Prince fielder.
i predict a strong second half of the season for him
Love his attitude and effort. I hope his 2nd half shows a better opportunity and k rate. Reds can’t give up 200 plus k’s in his position and go very far. He us certainly looking better as of late. Rooting for him!
Agree, this game isn’t easy. Suarez worked hard to get in SS shape and give Reds another option. Likewise, he has stayed healthy and available. Still in the top 10 of all MLB 3B in Runs, HRs and RBIs .
IDK? The 2019 version of Geno had 49 bombs and a .930 ops. I’ll take more of that, but I agree with your overall point. He’s a hard worker and a good teammate! He was rooting hard when he was out the other day.
He would’ve won that first playoff game last year if Votto wasn’t day dreaming at 2nd base.
If Suarez has a strong second half that will bring good things to the Reds.
I’m all for it.
But if he continues to perform like he did in the first half and nothing is done about it by the Reds, i will consider it dereliction of duty.
That extra one in the ninth enabled Brach and or Hembree much needed rest. So important for this team to go into Milwaukee with a well rested bull-pen. Here they are where they were a few weeks ago in SanDiego, four games over .500.
I’ll definitely take 4-2 now up until the break and then see who they can pickup via the trade after the break.
Everybody talks about bullpen arms. But if the Reds could bring one more viable bat in here for the second half, I would be all for it.
One starting pitcher the Reds should take a long hard look at is German Marquez of the Rockies. If the Reds could land him without giving up Greene or Lodolo, I would definitely go for it. Marquez would solidify this starting rotation for many years to come.
He’s their ace and he’s only 26. They’re not letting him go.
Line up for game today (mlb.com)
India
TS
Nick C (DH)
Votto
Suarez
AA
Naquin
Farmer
Shogo
i like it.
good speed at the top and bottom of the lineup
I like it too. Biggest park in mlb so Bell has his fastest OF defensively. Bell catches flak, but I like how he adjusts to the performance of his players. He DH’d Wink, but he still didn’t look that great so now he gets the night off vs a lefty. They need him feeling good going into Milw for 4!
If TS = Tyler Stephenson batting #2, how does he provide “good speed at the top…?”
I think that Suarez needs to accept the maxim that home runs are thrown and not hit. He tries to hit home runs on pitches that can’t be “homered.” As a result, he strikes out too much and misses a lot pitches that ought to be laced into right field for singles and doubles (and the occasional homer).
Castellanos is superb at taking what the pitcher gives him, as has been Votto throughout his career. Stephenson is going to be very good at it, too. When Winker is going bad, which he kind of is right now, it tends to be because he turns into Suarez instead of accepting what is available. When Winker starts hitting the ball hard to left field, you know he is ready to bust out.
Sounds like a critique of that LH hitting OF #32 for the Reds from about a decade ago to whom Winker has been compared to from time to time 😉
And probably right on too.
Right on point, OBE