For for the sixth time tonight the Reds will try (try again) to succeed in getting their first win of 2021 over the San Diego Padres. Game time is 7:10pm at GABP
A pair of righthanders square off at game’s beginning tonight. Vladimir Gutierrez gets the ball for the Reds versus Joe Musgrove for the Padres.
Tonight is Gutierrez’s seventh start since being called up to replace injured Jeff Hoffman in the Reds rotation early in May. He has compiled an ERA/FIP of 3.97/4.97 in 34 innings of work during his first 6 MLB appearances. ERA and FIP metrics diverge in their rating of Gutierrez’s performance. ERA metrics say he is a tad better than average. FIP metrics say slightly less than average. In a prior start versus the Padres 11 days ago, Gutierrez was roughed up for an in game ERA of 9.00 over 5 innings. How he responds tonight could help answer questions about his viability as a starting pitcher.
Gutierrez is essentially a 3 pitch guy who just shows his change up from time to time:
| CHANGE UP
If the name Joe Musgrove sounds familiar to Reds fans that is probably because prior to 2021 he was a familiar face in the Pirates rotation for several years. However the work Musgrove has done for the Padres appears to be a step up from his Pirates stint. In 2021 his ERA/FIP is 2.22/3.09 for 15 appearances (14 starts). He is striking out over 30% of the batters he faces while walking a miniscule 5.8%. And what’s not to like about a WHIP less than 1.
Let’s have a look at Musgrove’s current pitch distribution:
| 4 SEAM FASTBALL
| CUT FASTBALL
| CHANGE UP
Compared to his days with the Pirates, Musgrove is throwing his 4 seam fastball on at least 16% fewer of his pitches. About 10% more of is pitches are now cutters and 5% more sliders. It seems counterintuitive that a guy could effectively throw 5 pitches with this frequency distribution; but, it seems to be working just fine for Musgrove.
Tale Of The Tape
The last four columns for Joe Musgrove verify the first two are not a mirage.
The Reds pen was tasked to cover 6 innings Tuesday night. The work was spread among everyone in the pen except Cionel Perez. Based on pichcounts and recent usage, Heath Hembree is probably out for tonight. Art Warren and Sean Doolittle are questionable. Brad Brach is likely on a short leash.
Blake Snell’s injury scratch turned Tuesday’s game into a bullpen night from the get go for the Padres. They used 8 pitchers in the game too. Nick Ramirez threw 40 pitches and figures to be a no go for tonight. More notably two of their mainstays, Emilio Pagan and closer Mark Melancon could be on limited duty due to accumulated pitch count since Sunday.
|1. Tommy Pham (LF)
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS)
3. Jake Cronenworth (2B)
4. Manny Machado (3B)
5. Trent Grisham (CF)
6. Wil Myers (RF)
7. Jurickson Profar (1B)
8. Victor Caratini (C)
9. Joe Musgrove (P)
|1. Jonathan India (2B)
2. Jesse Winker (LF)
3. Nick Castellanos (RF)
4. Joey Votto (1B)
5. Alejo Lopez(3B)
6. Tucker Barnhart (C)
7. Kyle Farmer (SS)
8. Shogo Akiyama (CF)
9. Vladimir Gutierrez (P)
News and Notes
Tony Santillan optioned, Ashton Goudeau recalled
The Reds made a set of roster moves just after 5pm this afternoon, optioning Tony Santillan to Triple-A and recalling Ashton Goudeau from the Louisville Bats.
Nick Lodolo will be the Reds representative at the Futures Game
Pitching prospect Nick Lodolo will represent the Reds at the MLB Futures Game. Doug Gray has the details over at RedsMinorLeagues.com.
37 Straight for prospect Graham Ashcraft
Doug also has more about the incredible scoreless innings streak of pitching prospect Graham Ashcraft which started at High-A Dayton and continues at Double-A Chattanooga.
The polls are about to close for the first round of All Star voting but there is still time to vote.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 30, 2021
NL Central Standings
Brewers are doing just that while the rest of the division spins their wheels,
With apologies to a certain long time and still running TV soap opera, Like sands through an hourglass, this is the season of our Reds. I am reminded of 2006 when the Reds always seemed on the cusp but could never quite get things really going. Still GO REDS!