For for the sixth time tonight the Reds will try (try again) to succeed in getting their first win of 2021 over the San Diego Padres. Game time is 7:10pm at GABP
Starting Pitchers
A pair of righthanders square off at game’s beginning tonight. Vladimir Gutierrez gets the ball for the Reds versus Joe Musgrove for the Padres.
Vladimir Gutierrez
Tonight is Gutierrez’s seventh start since being called up to replace injured Jeff Hoffman in the Reds rotation early in May. He has compiled an ERA/FIP of 3.97/4.97 in 34 innings of work during his first 6 MLB appearances. ERA and FIP metrics diverge in their rating of Gutierrez’s performance. ERA metrics say he is a tad better than average. FIP metrics say slightly less than average. In a prior start versus the Padres 11 days ago, Gutierrez was roughed up for an in game ERA of 9.00 over 5 innings. How he responds tonight could help answer questions about his viability as a starting pitcher.
Gutierrez is essentially a 3 pitch guy who just shows his change up from time to time:
| FASTBALL
USE% (VELOCITY) 48.7% (93.0) |
SLIDER
USE% (VELOCITY) 22.0% (83.0) |
CURVE
USE% (VELOCITY) 23.1% (77.0) |
CHANGE UP
USE% (VELOCITY) 6.1% (78.9) |
Joe Musgrove
If the name Joe Musgrove sounds familiar to Reds fans that is probably because prior to 2021 he was a familiar face in the Pirates rotation for several years. However the work Musgrove has done for the Padres appears to be a step up from his Pirates stint. In 2021 his ERA/FIP is 2.22/3.09 for 15 appearances (14 starts). He is striking out over 30% of the batters he faces while walking a miniscule 5.8%. And what’s not to like about a WHIP less than 1.
Let’s have a look at Musgrove’s current pitch distribution:
| 4 SEAM FASTBALL
USE% (VELOCITY) 23.8% (93.3) |
SLIDER
USE% (VELOCITY) 29.5% (84.1) |
CUT FASTBALL
USE% (VELOCITY) 18.8% (90.3) |
CURVE
USE% (VELOCITY) 19.9% (82.2) |
CHANGE UP
USE% (VELOCITY) 8.0% (87.1) |
Compared to his days with the Pirates, Musgrove is throwing his 4 seam fastball on at least 16% fewer of his pitches. About 10% more of is pitches are now cutters and 5% more sliders. It seems counterintuitive that a guy could effectively throw 5 pitches with this frequency distribution; but, it seems to be working just fine for Musgrove.
Tale Of The Tape
| PITCHER | ERA | FIP | WHIP | HR/9 | BB% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Gutierrez | 3.97 | 4.97 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 10.8% | 18.2% |
| Joe Musgrove | 2.22 | 3.09 | 0.84 | 0.95 | 5.7% | 30.8% |
The last four columns for Joe Musgrove verify the first two are not a mirage.
Bullpens
Reds
The Reds pen was tasked to cover 6 innings Tuesday night. The work was spread among everyone in the pen except Cionel Perez. Based on pichcounts and recent usage, Heath Hembree is probably out for tonight. Art Warren and Sean Doolittle are questionable. Brad Brach is likely on a short leash.
Padres
Blake Snell’s injury scratch turned Tuesday’s game into a bullpen night from the get go for the Padres. They used 8 pitchers in the game too. Nick Ramirez threw 40 pitches and figures to be a no go for tonight. More notably two of their mainstays, Emilio Pagan and closer Mark Melancon could be on limited duty due to accumulated pitch count since Sunday.
Lineups
| PADRES | REDS |
| 1. Tommy Pham (LF) 2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS) 3. Jake Cronenworth (2B) 4. Manny Machado (3B) 5. Trent Grisham (CF) 6. Wil Myers (RF) 7. Jurickson Profar (1B) 8. Victor Caratini (C) 9. Joe Musgrove (P) |
1. Jonathan India (2B) 2. Jesse Winker (LF) 3. Nick Castellanos (RF) 4. Joey Votto (1B) 5. Alejo Lopez(3B) 6. Tucker Barnhart (C) 7. Kyle Farmer (SS) 8. Shogo Akiyama (CF) 9. Vladimir Gutierrez (P) |
News and Notes
Tony Santillan optioned, Ashton Goudeau recalled
The Reds made a set of roster moves just after 5pm this afternoon, optioning Tony Santillan to Triple-A and recalling Ashton Goudeau from the Louisville Bats.
Nick Lodolo will be the Reds representative at the Futures Game
Pitching prospect Nick Lodolo will represent the Reds at the MLB Futures Game. Doug Gray has the details over at RedsMinorLeagues.com.
37 Straight for prospect Graham Ashcraft
Doug also has more about the incredible scoreless innings streak of pitching prospect Graham Ashcraft which started at High-A Dayton and continues at Double-A Chattanooga.
Vote Reds!
The polls are about to close for the first round of All Star voting but there is still time to vote.
Less than 24 hours to #VoteWinker and #VoteCastellanos??
? https://t.co/RZw3a2ud0x
? https://t.co/2GN5fs9cJ3
?? https://t.co/Mh8URYSbWu@PNCBank pic.twitter.com/Mzc1Bvw5sl— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 30, 2021
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | L10 | Playoff% | |
| Milwaukee | 47 | 33 | .588 | — | 9-1 | 86.9% |
| Chi Cubs | 42 | 38 | .525 | 5 | 3-7 | 18.4% |
| Cincinnati | 39 | 39 | .500 | 7 | 4-6 | 7.30% |
| St. Louis | 39 | 41 | .488 | 8 | 4-6 | 2.50% |
| Pittsburgh | 29 | 49 | .372 | 17 | 5-5 | 1% |
Brewers are doing just that while the rest of the division spins their wheels,
Final Thought
With apologies to a certain long time and still running TV soap opera, Like sands through an hourglass, this is the season of our Reds. I am reminded of 2006 when the Reds always seemed on the cusp but could never quite get things really going. Still GO REDS!
Data And stats courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball Reference and Rotowire
Lopez instead of Suarez. Nice. Let’s hope he goes 4-4 and takes Suarez’s position. Kind of a Jim McMillan-Elgin Baylor moment. Of course, Reds lose today and it won’t matter all that much – 8 games behind.
I do not think my blood pressure could have withstood a Suárez start tonight
Mine, either.
Not that Naquin is all that slow, or that Lopez is that fast, but Akiyama and Lopez make this team a bit faster, Watching the Padres (and other opponents) has highlighted just how dull-footed the Reds are.
It is time to make some moves for the future. Latch onto JAKE BURGER who was just moved up to AAA for the White Sox, they don’t have room for him now. He can smash the ball. He can play 3rd or 2nd. A 10 year player. Get Him !!!!!!
Another 3B/2B player? Don’t know him. Maybe it’s worth it.
Any changes in performance or the spin rate data on Musgrove since Spider-tack-gate?
Was wondering if that could explain his quantum increase in success after leaving Pittsburgh—and if so—hoping the Reds can capitalize on him “not” using it at present
3-0 and counting in the first inning.
Does he miss the stick-um?
Willy Adames had a .858 ops with the Brewers coming into today and Hr/4 rbis today.
He’s pretty much helped them salt the division away. All they have to do now is win 3 of the 7 vs the Reds and we’re done.
The Reds just need to look towards the future and play as many young guys as they can. Lopez, Warren, Barrero, Aquino, Sims, Garrett, etc. Put them into pressure roles and see who responds. If AA took 75 at-bats away from Naquin or Wink what difference does it make? The goal is to find talent and give them an opportunity like India got and hope they succeed and gain confidence! 2nd-3rd place and getting 2-3 over .500 in the end is meaningless
The Cubs got 7 runs in the top of 1st, then the Brewers bullpen closed out with zeros. Final Brewers 15 Cubs 7. As for Adames, it makes one wonder if only the Reds could have manage a deal with the Rays. But maybe the Reds have more than one problem it needs to fix. Huge game tonight- Go Reds
Barrero has to prove he can hit at higher levels of the organization. That’s still an unanswered question. The Reds need to secure a proven SS for a year or two. And we need to hope that guys like Ashcraft, Lopez, Lodolo, and Hunter can actually make the transition to the majors. And that none are as fragile as Senzel who is starting to look like a wasted draft pick
I mean, it’s June 30th ?????
Yep, one would like to think that the FO would have made a move to improve the team weeks ago while the lead was in reach. Alas, didn’t happen and likely won’t. I more expect a fire sale vs. trying to improve. Sadly, I think we Reds fans have been hosed by cheap ownership and lousy management once again this year. Kick that ball Charlie Brown.
C trent is reporting Santillan will likely transition to the bullpen in louisville and be back up in 10 days
Seems awful early for that to be case with Tony S. I guess that means the Reds aren’t going all out to add RPs at the trade deadline.
a Show me game for Vlad. Reds FO is probably mum on what they want to do with Hoffman until they see Vlad for the last possible time before the rehab start runs out. Already see that Tony is being transitioned to the bullpen in AAA. Good, will mean he will be ready out the Bullpen when he comes back in 10 days. Greene is ahead of him on the depth chart anyway, I am sure they are just trying to get a string of good starts from him before he moves up again. It’s also good to see how Greene reacts to adversity. GREAT to see Lopez get the start. Sad it took hometown booing to make the point to whomever that it was required.
one last note… I gotta believe that Naquin is more hurt than he is letting on, and the Reds office has run out of people that they can bring up. Maybe Schrock is so close, that may be the roster move.
I’m a big fan of Eugenio Wally Pipp Suárez
a day or two off should help him out
I see what you did there
The Athletic has a copy of the complaint against Trevor Bauer….. WARNING!!!! GRAPHIC!!! (don’t say I didn’t warn you)
Start with controlling Pham. Sheesh.
Keep the faith!
FIRST 81 GAMES
Division winners
38-43: 2013 Dodgers (finished 92-70)
38-43: 2008 Dodgers (finished 84-78)
39-42: 2012 Athletics (finished 94-68)
39-42: 2012 Tigers (finished 88-74)*
40-41: 2019 Cardinals (finished 91-71)
40-41: 2017 Cubs (finished 92-70)
40-41: 2004 Braves (finished 96-66)
40-41: 1997 Astros (finished 84-78)
40-41: 1995 Mariners (finished 79-66)
Eight division winners started 41-40
Wild Card winners
39-42: 2018 Rockies (finished 91-72)
39-42: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73)*
39-42: 2005 Astros (finished 89-73)*
39-42: 2001 Athletics (finished 102-60)
40-41: 2007 Yankees (finished 94-68)
40-41: 2003 Marlins (finished 91-71)#
40-41: 2001 Cardinals (finished 93-69)
Five Wild Card winners started 41-4
Ok, you win the award for the most optimistic Reds fan on the planet.
And very clever “nom de plume”.
Dissecting baseball hair is a passion in this household lol
Thank you for that! Without hope there is nothing!
Game now scheduled to start at 7:45.
Must we always NIBBLE?????
Get Geno a day off … or a week off … or …
Two Blind Umps … Two Blind Umps … see how they call … see how they call …
But we’ll take it in this case.
And the payoff!!!
Free fire mode: Activated
+100
Nick being Nick.
Nick C sets off the fireworks….3 run BLASTO!
And the table is set for Mr. Lopez
Man. Nick C is GOOD. Votto getting hot too.
That’s alright Mr. Lopez Productive out.
He ripped it.
Already better than last night’s Golden Sombrero.
A productive out and he helped run up the pitch count on Musgrove.
and with the bullpen being used extensively yesterday, getting him out early would be clutch
Lost art for this team, the Productive Out!
Larkin talks about it all the time. Very important…to a winning team.
SO mutual Bullpen games it is
“Danger Will Robins—er—Meyers!”
Oh boy! Buckle up
Had enough of Guiterrez . Won’t be anything more than a AAAA pitcher . Send him back down and give someone else a shot .
Not a major league pitcher .
i wouldnt be so hastey…. I would like Hoffman to get a start after his return to see if this shoulder issue was what was bothering him. But Vlad is not Horrible. Tony was not MLB Starter material. We need someone to bridge it to greene, which, the longer we stay in the more likely i think it will happen this year.
Do all “major league pitchers” come out from AAA firing on all cylinders right away? Give the guy a break. He’s a rookie. This is his seventh game. And he’s performed fairly well until tonight. Many are the All-Star and Cy Young Award winners who started their careers in obscurity and/or mediocrity. God help us all if everyone gives up on you so soon after just beginning one’s career. I’m glad no one gave up on me after my first couple weeks on the job — because I made lots of mistakes and was still learning. Still am.
At least they are solo shots.
But whenever we have to see Takis do his ridiculous thing at third base I get really irritated
(The typo is intentional, if petty)
To be clear, even though I was clowning, I feel a sense of patience with regard to Vlad as well. Let’s give him time.
Suárez has had more than enough time by contrast…
Blame me for the 2nd one … I had to “take a break” and came back to 2 runs, man on 1st, nobody out, and pitch count climbing.
And perhaps for that one. I had to go put the cover on the mower.
Stop leaving lol
Not that you’re superstitious or anything …. 😉
Vlad has to lock it down now.
Definitely playing with fire. Reds need more. I don’t think 4 will be enough.
OK, more stable in the 3rd and 4th, fingers crossed for dominating the top of the lineup…. one more time.
haha You just never know about Winker. Good catch.
Votto with a HR? Shame there are left handed pitchers in the league.
haha I want him to start hitting lefties too so we can put all this talk to rest. If he really gets hot, it won’t matter.
Come on Melvin, hitting lefties seems like a stretch given his numbers the last 4 years. At least, if he keeps hitting righties, he’s not the biggest hole in the lineup. Farmer & Suarez get to compete for that title.
I know where you’re coming from. I still think he has it in him. Hope he proves me to be right.
Not that time…unfortunately.
Told you. Votto getting hot. Cool. 🙂
RBI #1,000 in the same season as Hit #2,000. Kind of magical for him.
He has been doing well ever since coming back from the injury. AVG slowly climbing … power there as well.
Yepper. I in the minority on here. I’m not ready to give up on him yet. I think he still has great things in him. Call me crazy. 🙂
I don’t know how but Musgrove is exposed. Up to the Padres if they want to leave him out there or bring in a bullpen that was taxed yesterday and if i have this right, will be pitching another Bullpen game tomorrow (snell to IL)
Don’t really care about Padres pitching problems! Reds need to win tonight! Musgrove may last 5 innings with nearly 70 pitches thru 3 innings!
I’m with you, Dennis. And Vlad got through 4 on 58, so that’s a positive. Seemed a little more settled in that inning. Larkin noted his delivery was more compact and he was on a quicker pace.
Now for a few more crooked numbers.
I only care because of tomorrows game. After that, I am with you.
I hinted above I suspect it’s a matter of fingertip adhesives—or rather lack thereof—that gives a plausible explanation.
Cubs not helping by rolling over in their last 2 games against the Brewers! Knew their pitching was bad but the Brewers were the worst hitting NL team going into their series! Proving once again that baseball is a funny game!
I’m pretty much resigned to us not catching the Bernies. I’d love to finish ahead of the Stupid Cubs and the WLB’s even though the chances of a wild card are almost zilch.
Then again— if Brewers get injured pitchers—they are sunk
Ive been fortunate to really get into baseball as a fan when Votto joined the big leagues. Alway played ball. I wasn’t born before the BRM, and was too young to remember Larkins greatest years and the 90 World Series.
But, I remember telling friends early in 08, “this guy is going to be good”.
He had discipline, he had power, he hated giving away ABs. He was a pro.
Not sure if he makes the HOF, if 2012 didn’t happen he’d have his second MVP, probably broken the doubles record and have more stats to pad.
Regardless of the outcome, JDV is a HOF in my book.
Under-appreciated for sure. Best Reds overall hitter I’ve seen in my lifetime–and I WAS around for the BRM (though those guys as a unit were one of the absolute best in MLB history, no doubt!).
For the same reasons you cited, I am hopeful regarding players like India and Stephenson.
Votto is good and has had a great career. But, Votto over Rose as a hitter? Don’t think so.
I do think so, and and I saw them both play, both in person and on TV. Rose was great, no doubt about it, and had a great supporting cast that was always in the (postseason) spotlight. Votto is also great, but has had less than a stellar supporting cast over his career thus far. Rarely, if ever, did Rose have to carry the team like Votto has had to do at times.
Numbers-wise (before tonight):
Votto: .303/.417/.515/.932 over 15 years
Rose: .303/.375/.409/.784 over 24 years
Both pretty darn good. Votto better.
Votto without a doubt was a better pure hitter than Rose. Pete was great but his best asset was durability.
Stats don’t lie, Votto is/was a better hitter and didn’t have the cast. Hopefully the Voters realize Votto was a standout on a subpar team which makes his feats all the more impressive.
You can’t argue with all the hits Rose had that’s for sure. Remember Marty’s quote, “Pet Rose had more hits but Votto is a better hitter”. I’d take them both on my team. I bigger question would be would Votto replace Perez as one of the “Great Eight” if that was a choice back then? Driessen sure didn’t.
I’ve seen them both as well though Rose more times. I’d still take Rose. Though from a natural talent perspective, yeah, JV probably had the edge. But from a competitiveness perspective, Rose all the way. I’d probably take Perez over Votto as well though I waver a little on that. But in my mind, it’s safe to say that Votto in his prime is the only current Red about whom even imagining him on the BRM is feasible. Other past teams, yep Larkin over Concepcion every day of the week. Eric Davis and Junior over Geronimo and Senior. It would be interesting to see such a team in a full season simulation, though something more sophisticated that Strato-Magic.
Strato did that last year and the Yankees came out on top. Don’t agree of course, lol, but Votto and Robinson I think lead the whole thing in HR and RBI or at least very close.
Pitching from BRM forward is interesting as well. The bullpen choices are phenomenal like The Nasty Boys, Franco, Chapman, Eastwick, McEnaney, Borbon to eat innings. Starters like Seaver, Soto, Rijo, maybe Gullett, Browning, Jackson, Cueto. The Reds have had tremendous players in the past just not much to show in the Castellini era.
I’m with you. I started wearing #19 when I could before anyone else seemingly around me knew who he was. lol I remember his first HR. I knew then by the way he swung that bat and his plate discipline that he was going to be a favorite of mine at least. In my opinion getting on base regularly is the hardest thing to do in baseball. That is the biggest reason why he’s a Hall Of Famer to me.
Glad to see someone appreciates it. I mentioned on Twitter when someone said they coached their kids to swing outside the zone with two strikes (it related to a Buster Poser called strike with Hernandez as the ump that was 4” outside the zone), that the zone is the zone. You have 27 outs, and once they’re gone that’s it. If everybody in the team walked, you would have infinite outs, infinite RBI’s.
Without a doubt, it’s the hardest and most underappreciated skill. And Votto is one of the top 5 masters at that craft.
“it’s the hardest and most underappreciated skill. And Votto is one of the top 5 masters at that craft.”
+1
So many seem to think it’s easy. It’s not. Hitting .300 is Hall of Fame caliber, and yet it means you’ve FAILED 70 percent of the time!!!
FAILED 70 PERCENT OF THE TIME!
I played baseball when younger. Mostly I stunk.. appreciate how difficult it is to hit well consistently at the highest levels……
Bell gonna wait till Reds behind to pull him
Dude can’t stand prosperity
Did I hear lightning… get through the inning and call the game…. for safety…. yea Safety
If you heard lighting—that’s a side effect of LSD—hearing colors and seeing sounds.
Just kidding sorry low hanging fruit #dadjokes
They have been stinging the ball, Bell should have changed pitchers before the inning started.
Shades of Dusty Baker! Always one batter late in changing pitchers!
And that’s a Clete from me.
I hate our bullpen
And our front office
…how do you feel about the manager…?
Take him or leave him. I wouldnt want his job. I mean how do you pick what reliever to call on. It’s almost a coin flip every night with these bums.
Me too
Career Minor league pitcher… now we have to fight back through the bullpen. SMH
Slam Diego
Ostrich takes rhe reds to 8 games back
Need a DP or Vlad may be done for the evening!
Our bullpen comes through again. Personally I wish he would have left Guti in there longer. I like him and think he will continue to get better. He has talent, is a gamer, doesn’t get intimidated, and battles hard.
And so the season ends. Lose this game, it’s 4th place, 8 games out. The odds of catching Milwaukee would start converging on zero. And Milwaukee is a better organization top to bottom. They actually went out and plugged their lineup holes.
Reds have the worst 3b in baseball the worst SS in baseball the worst bullpen in baseball. Stop the nonsense.
Fix it or sell
Add in the worst manager and you got it covered !
What about ownership? Who has them beat there?
By All Star break this team might be buried in 4th place. God I hope not.
Mandatory walk by Osich to start his relief stint! Fortunately the caught stealing mercifully ended a nightmare inning! Reds 7-1/2 games out pending tonight’s result! Need a big comeback!
They are never out of it with this offense. Unfortunately the other team is never out of it with our bullpen.
Just can’t let JV hit against lefties. Dollars to donuts says Bell pinch hits Suarez for Lopez to open the next inning. If he does not, I’ll be amazed. The game has entered the “manager zone”.
Ultimately this was Vlads fault. Was handed a 4 run lead by the second and couldn’t hold it. Hoffman will get the first available start as soon as his rehab starts can align up.
He is also facing one of the best offenses in baseball, as was Santillan. I’m still very excited for both of these guys. It will be interesting to see what they do with Hoffman and the 2 rookies.
About that— the Padres have no hitter that is head and shoulders above the league, like Winker and Castellanos for instance. But because they don’t have to suffer a Suárez and a Farmer, they are that much better? Or is it that their pitching balances it out?
Baseball is a fickle mistress.
Did I mention that I really do not like this year’s Padres?
Me neither
They’re good and they know it. They remind me of the Cub team that won it all a few years ago.
The SD front office has spent the money and made the trades.
All these relievers just love getting beat on hanging breaking balls. The best pitch remains a well placed fastball. Sick of these relievers teeing it up for these Padres’ hitters.
Earth to Sadak, yeah it’s called a hard rain, it’s not like we have never seen it rain hard before.
The Padres have really ruined the Reds season. Go to San Diego 4 games over, blow the first game and lose four straight and now this series and a time where the Brewers are pulling away.
Really it was Arizona (and Colorado a little bit) that ruined it. Losing so much to them makes these losses untenable.
There are many other things to blame also
absolute garbage. WIth more than half the game remaining the game has been called. Rain was already dying down. Bad call by the umps, but heaven forbid MLB work against the wunderchildren of the MLB west
ok technically its not more then half but it was more then enough
Certainly, when a game is called vs. continued the next day seems inconsistent this season.
Not really. There are very specific rules for what constitutes when a game can be called and when it must be resumed.
Another loss to the Padres. You can the difference from the contenders and the pretenders. We are missing two or three key pieces still.