The Cincinnati Reds will look to ruin Fathers Day for The “Fathers” out in San Diego today. The Padres will be without superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. after he left the game yesterday with what appeared to be at least a tweaking of his shoulder injury he’s been playing with all year.

Starting Lineups

Cincinnati Reds

San Diego Padres

Jonathan India – 2B Trent Grisham – CF
Jesse Winker – LF Manny Machado – 3B
Tyler Naquin – RF Jake Cronenworth – 2B
Joey Votto – 1B Eric Hosmer – 1B
Tucker Barnhart – C Wil Myers – RF
Eugenio Suárez – 3B Jurickson Profar – LF
Shogo Akiyama – CF Ha-Seong Kim – SS
Kyle Farmer – SS Victor Caratini – C
Luis Castillo – SP Dinelson Lamet – SP

Starting Pitchers

Luis Castillo

Is Luis Castillo back? It’s probably too early to say that for sure, but in his last four starts he’s been able to keep runs off of the board, posting a 2.28 ERA in 23.2 innings while allowing just 11 hits and striking out 22 in that stretch. His groundball rate is way up in that span, too. In the first 10 starts of the year his groundball rate was just 40.1%, but it’s 52.9% over his last four games – right in line with where he’s been in the rest of his career.

On the season lefties have hit .282/.368/.430 against him with 21 walks and 41 strikeouts in 173 plate appearances. Right-handed batters have hit .267/.333/.427 with 9 walks and 26 strikeouts in 147 plate appearances against Castillo this year.

Pitch usage from 2021

4-Seam 2-Seam Change Slider
Velo 96.7 96.7 87.5 85.3
Usage 30.8% 19.9% 31.7% 17.5%

Dinelson Lamet

Despite making seven starts and two relief appearances, Dinelson Lamet has thrown just 27.0 innings this season. He’s posted a 3.33 ERA with 27 hits, two homers, 10 walks, and 30 strikeouts in that time. Until June he had not gotten an out in the 4th inning all season. But in three starts this month he’s gone 4.0 innings twice, and 5.0 innings another time – and reached the 6th in that game but recorded no outs.

We’re dealing with a small sample size in 2021 for Lamet. Lefties are hitting .286/.352/.388 against him with four walks and 16 strikeouts in 54 plate appearances. Righties are hitting .236/.306/.382 against him with six walks and 14 strikeouts in 62 plate appearances. He’s essentially a 2-pitch guy. Lamet will throw a 4-seamer and a 2-seamer, but both are fastballs and he rarely throws the 2-seamer. He also throws a slider, and he throws it more than the fastball.

Pitch usage from 2021

4-Seam 2-Seam Slider
Velo 95.3 95.4 86.4
Usage 42.2% 4.6% 53.0%

When and Where

  • Game time: 4:10pm ET
  • Where: Petco Park, San Diego
  • Watch: Bally Sports Ohio,
  • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
  • Forecast: ­71°, partly cloudy, 1% chance of rain. SAN DIEGO AMIRITE

News and Notes

Jesse Winker……

Earlier today I wrote about Jesse Winker, Joey Votto’s ejection, and the terrible bullpen re-emerging. But one of the fun parts of that article was noting that Jesse Winker is about to play in his 63rd game of the season and at no point following the completion of any game this year has his batting average been lower than .338.

Brad Brach and the longshots

It’s only been 13 games, but Brad Brach has actually performed well in the Cincinnati Reds bullpen. The 35-year-old has a good track record in the Majors, though his 2019 and 2020 seasons weren’t very good. Still, he’s spent 11 seasons in MLB with a 3.38 career ERA. Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote about Brach’s journey yesterday, and how the 42nd round draft pick represents and impossible situation today as the 42nd round in the draft no longer even exists.

NL Central Standings

Playoff odds via Fangraphs

Team W L GB Playoff %
Brewers 39 32 0 60.9%
Cubs 39 32 0 33.0%
Reds 35 34 3.0 17.1%
Cardinals 35 35 3.5 9.9%
Pirates 25 44 13.0 0.0%

77 Responses

  1. Mark Moore

    As we’ve repeatedly said, you have to win the NLC to advance this year. Good to see the gap isn’t completely out of reach … yet.

    Let’s salvage whatever is left of our dignity with a win on our way out of San Diego.

  2. Old-school

    I hope the Reds bounce back.

    Lots of criticism of the bullpen and rightfully so.
    I do think that Dick Williams resignation in October 2020 was the tell that this ownership group was cutting payroll to ride things out until 12/1/2021 when the current labor deal ends. When did that happen? Sometime between cancellation of Opening Day 2020 and July 2020.

    Dick Williams knew the salary purge and cuts were coming. He knew the bullpen salaries of Archie and Iglesias were on the chopping block and Bauer was gone. He knew Kyle Farmer was plan A for spring training 2021 @SS and knew the Reds weren’t going to spend money on a SS in FA. He knew things were ugly with the players and owners in 2020 and probably knows how ugly things will become in Dec 1 2021.
    I dont see baseball in 2022 and Castellini is simply riding out the season. All those assumptions about player salaries in 2022 wont happen. Castellini will gladly cancel the season to get out from under the albatross of 2022 salaries to Votto/Suarez/Moustakis $55 mil + outlay. He wants to hit the reset button.

    • LDS

      And I thought I was negative! I’d like to hit the reset button as well but I’d start by selling the team. I never thought I’d look back on Marge Schott as the most recent “good old days”. I’m not sure Bradley or Iglesias would matter much this year. Neither has been impressive this year. I’m still somewhat suspicious of the pitcher development strategy. I’m not yet convinced that the Boddy program works for all pitchers. And the analytics era with the emphasis on EV and B% etc., I suspect doesn’t work for all either. Sometimes one has to fall back on fundamentals, individual talent, and drive. When “analytics” became “best practice”, it became average performance.

      • Bred

        I wonder about Boddy also because of the emphasis on spin. I know the training routine he developed at Driveline is much more than that, but spin is spin and the only way to increase it is to use illegal substances. That is known because Bauer said it and proved it last year.

  3. Klugo

    Well, I hope Votto is making that ump as uncomfortable as he possibly can be pregame. Stare downs, maybe even confronting that coward.

    • RojoB

      Overly sweet and kindly to him would be funnier

      • RojoB

        That ump knows he’s a fraud or he would but have instigated what he did

        He’s compensating for something

  4. Bet on Red

    Reds really need LC to show up today. Need to get the win and then move to an AL game where we can use our strength of OF to our benefit with a DH. Really seeing the over today if we can get to this pitcher early. At least the proper portions of the BP are rested lol.

  5. Indy Red Man

    Schwarber with 2 hrs yesterday and 3 today. He’s on a 1 yr deal, but the Reds are stuck with Moose and Shogo next year so you can count them out. Moose who’s older then Schwarber and a weaker hitter as well & Shogo with his whopping Zero career major league HRs

    • Indy Red Man

      Schwarber 38/92 with 70 walks in 2019…..and thats in Wrigley where the wind blows in 60% of the time. He could potentially put up insane numbers in gabp, but the Reds front office can’t judge talent

      • Indy Red Man

        Universal DH, LF with Winker in RF I guess. Not a great defensive setup I admit

      • Mark Moore

        Universal DH I get. But I’m still thinking that’s where JV lands for his last hurrah. And I really don’t like Kyle in the OF anywhere. I just don’t.

  6. Mark Moore

    Somebody fix Sadak and his “black” comments, please. Time to switch audio feed. He’s just trying too hard from what I see. And it isn’t work, at least for me.

  7. Mark A Verticchio

    Not the start I was hoping for. I think besides the bullpens this series has been defined by home runs 9 to 1 is not good.

  8. Bet on Red

    And it turns out the Cincinnati Reds org. Got that young lady tickets to today’s game as well, so she will get to see her favorite player after all.

    • RedsMonk65

      And Votto rewarded her with a hit in his first at-bat.

      • bet

        yes he did. Watch Votto go 4 for 4 and credit the girl. SD pitcher throwing filth.

    • Mark Moore

      And primo seats at that. Absolutely the right thing to do.

      • RedsMonk65

        Yes, and she will remember this all her life. That matters.

        But I’m not excusing Votto’s behavior yesterday. Although I don’t know what was said that set him off, his absence really hurt not only this little girl, but his team, who really needed him for a crucial game. He needs to be better than that. (And I’m a huge Joey Votto fan.)

      • Bet on Red

        Now Joey needs to go 4-4 to make the apology complete

      • RedsMonk65

        And after that error, he needs to hit the game-winning home run — or something.

  9. Mark Moore

    Time for Jesse to wake up and make some noise.

  10. Mark Moore

    WLW audio feed is just a little ahead of the video. I’m good with that 🙂

  11. Mark Moore

    Terrible, terrible, terrible calls AGAIN!!!

    MLBPA has to address this as part of the CBA. HP umpires have zero accountability to improve at this point. That changes the game as much as the robo zone would – but not for the better.

    • RojoB

      +1 they can call a pitch whatever they wish with complete immunity

      It’s disgusting and distracting and it hurts player performance

  12. ClevelandRedsFan

    This umpire and Geno must have the same eye doctor.

  13. Indy Red Man

    Castillo getting squeezed while their guy gets an expanded zone. This is bovine excrement.

    The time is come for baseball “goons” like hockey. Call them up. They headbutt an umpire, whatever, gets suspended and who cares.

  14. Bet on Red

    Not the finest play there, on strike 5 Myers gets help for an inside the park somethin

  15. Mark Moore

    I call CLETE!!! I’m done with our Keystone Clowns today. And I realize the HP ump put LC in a terrible position, but that’s enough Little League play for me.

    I’ll check back later just to see if we can somehow get out of our own way, but I’m not optimistic.

  16. Indy Red Man

    Thanks blue. RUINED ANOTHER GAME IN THE 3rd INNING!!!!!

    Hosmer took 2-3 strikes no call. Myers should’ve started 0-2 no call

    Im done

    • RojoB

      I don’t hate umpires, but I loathe and despise bad umpiring

  17. JB

    Castillo throws 3 strikes that are called balls and then myers makes the Reds pay. Get in front of the ball Suarez. You have to knock the ball down and not ole it.

  18. Mark A Verticchio

    Looks like a really bad day everybody in division winning and Reds not looking good. They need to pack up, get out of San Diego , and forget this series ever existed.

  19. LDS

    Back to .500 and 4th place after today and 4 games out

    • TR

      Frankly, I’m surprised that heading into late June the Reds are only four games out in the NLC.

  20. JB

    The Reds took 2 punches to the gut this weekend from the Padres. Hard to get up from that.

  21. Mark A Verticchio

    Well, Mahle is pitching a game they really need tomorrow. They don’t need to let this get away from them on a trip that started so well. They look like a defeated team today. I still go back to the loss Thursday, but they need to move on if they expect to stay in the race in a very winnable division.

    • Bet on Red

      Yes, additionally, Minnesota is not San Deigo. A real struggling team, in a horribly bad division. The Reds will have to beat up on MIN as a form of therapy for the last 4 games.

      • TR

        A sweep in Minnesota will give the Reds a winning road trip.

  22. JB

    Every team knows Akiyama has a weak arm. They are taking the extra base every time. Terrible signing.

    • TR

      The signings of Akiyama and Moustakas have never made any sense to me. Too much money expended, some of which should have gone to build a bullpen to backup outstanding starting pitching, and for a competitive offer to keep Bauer.

      • Bet on Red

        I understood Akiyama at the time. The Naquin pickup threw a wrench into things. Seeing the substance crackdown, I think we will find it was a good thing we are not spending money on an outrageous Bauer contract right now.

  23. Re

    The next time the Reds win 6 in a row, can someone please remind me that it’s just a tease and not to get my hopes up? 🙂

  24. Roger Garrett

    Big league vs little league and guess which one we are.We beat up on the Rocks who are just awful on the road and sweep the Brew Crew who are punchless at the plate but when we face a real team well we roll over.Lost 2 games we could have won,rolled over in game 3 with 6 hits and 15 punchouts and a pen that gave up 5 in 5 innings.Today we walk hitters,can’t field it or throw it or hit it.Can we just forfeit and get on the plane and go some other place.Bob is not going to spend any money to help us in the pen but can he or will he do anything at the deadline to help for next year or beyond.I admire each and very player and coach and Bell that will try to win games but after awhile it has to be just whatever and in this series after Thursday it has been just that way.I rant on this team and Bell but the truth is it won’t get any better until Bob spends some money.We are pitching guys and playing guys that have no business even being in the big leagues.Throw in guys that do belong that aren’t performing and its a miracle we have the record we have right now.

    • JB

      Bob falls in love with his players and never gets rid of them until they have no value. Trades prospects because he doesnt know these kids. He loved Billy Hamilton and held on him far to long. He will do the same with Suarez and others. Day late and a dollar short.

  25. Mark A Verticchio

    I think you are 100% correct, with the poor front office, players that have drastically under performed and the injuries it is a miracle this team is .500.

  26. JB

    No Castellanos today and Winker is 0-3. The Reds have 0 runs. Odd.

  27. RedsMonk65

    The hits — and errors — just keep on coming.

    Except for Thursday night, this team has just not shown up this series.

    Hello? Reds? Anybody home? Time to play some some baseball?

  28. Mark A Verticchio

    Another issue, if Aquino is on the team why not give him a chance. The power has been all but absent in this series. You can’t just play him against left handers, he won’t get enough at bats.

    • Bet on Red

      Agreed, Castillenos used to be a 3B right,t. Try him there every once in a while and put Aquino in RF, that way you get both bats.

    • RedsMonk65

      Yes, I was thinking earlier today that his absence has been conspicuous.

  29. Bet on Red

    LC with 6 innings of 2 earned run ball. No support from the Offense. This loss (absent a comeback) is not on him. He certainly has turned a corner with his pitching. He pitches like this next time out he should get the win.

  30. Mark A Verticchio

    The team has no spark, it looks like they are ready to get on the plane. This next week might define their season, 6 games against under .500 teams, even though the Braves can be tough.

  31. RedsMonk65

    Umps have mostly been in the way during this game. …. maybe this series.

    • Mark Moore

      It’s systemic across the leagues. Zero accountability means they do what they want without much regard for the rules (specifically the strike zone). If MLBPA doesn’t make that a major point in the CBA negotiations, they’re missing an opportunity to correct a major deficiency.

  32. Roger Garrett

    Reds have little or no chance playing from behind because enter the pen and we get further behind.So many guys that just don’t belong even though from time to time they get 2 or 3 outs.Doolittle has very little left to get big league hitters out.He was closer at one time but was always a Coco Cordero clone.Reds got him and hoped he has something left and he doesn’t.

  33. RedsMonk65

    Ty Stephenson = Hope for the future.

    • LDS

      How he doesn’t play more is beyond me. And now it’s down to Suarez.

  34. RojoB

    Two RBI on two ground outs.

    That’s small ball

    • LDS

      Yep, but I’m greedy 2nd & 3rd with one out and they got one. Small ball but not great. A nice gapper by Suarez or a homerun would have been preferable.

      • RojoB

        No doubt, and would have brought home the bacon, preventing the sweep

  35. RedsMonk65

    Ninth inning, Melancon on the mound. Can history repeat?

    • LDS

      The same reason as Heineman, et. al. The Reds like cheap and mediocre. Fourth place and 4 behind. Oh well, there’s next year.

      • TR

        Four behind is not next year, yet. Still a lot of baseball to play.

    • RojoB

      Injuries forcing the AAA filler players to have to play

      • RedsMonk65

        Yes, obviously. But why is that acceptable for the Reds’ front office–and fans? After his injury, Tatis was replaced with Kim, who killed us this series. You get what you pay for….

  36. RedsMonk65

    This series was lost with the collapse of the bullpen Thursday night. That set the tone for all that followed. That said, I admire the fight of this team.

    I hope they are able to put it all together soon.

    • RojoB

      The offense fought a lot.

      And they were “supposed” to lose to the Padres.

      That’s why the Reds need to have done better against Arizona and Colorado. They hadn’t hit their stride on offense back then

      • RedsMonk65

        I agree that the Reds should have done better against the Rockies and D-Backs. But if you can’t — at the very least — even up against the “premier” teams, then what is the point?

        Frustrated…we should be able to beat good teams at least SOME of the time. In the playoffs, that’s all there is…