|Milwaukee Brewers (38-28)||2||4||0|
|Cincinnati Reds (33-31)||10||11||0|
|W: Gutierrez (3-1) L: Lauer (1-3)|
|FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread|
There is no team in baseball with a better record than the Cincinnati Reds’ 11-3 mark since May 29th.
The patient Reds offense worked two walks in the first inning off Eric Lauer, and scratched across a run. The offense really got going in the second inning. Jonathan India smoked an RBI double to increase the Reds lead to 2-1.
Jesse Winker joined in the party with an RBI single, and Nick Castellanos hustled to avoid a double play to increase the Reds lead to 4-1.
Vladimir Gutierrez pitched another exceptional game, allowing just two runs over six innings. The Reds battered bullpen allowed him to stay in much longer than David Bell would have wanted, but his 110th pitch of the night was a strikeout to get through six brilliant innings.
Joey Votto hit his third home run since returning from the IL in the 7th inning to give the Reds bullpen some much needed breathing room.
Speaking of the Reds bullpen, they got the job done tonight. Hembree, Garrett and Warren combined to shutout the Brewers. But the Reds offense was not done. Eugenio Suarez finally got some good luck with a bloop 2-run single. Aristides Aquino put the Brewers to bed for good in his first start back of the IL with a two-run bomb. The Reds won 10-2 to get to within three games back in the loss column behind the Brewers and Cubs.
Biggest Play of the Game
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Jonathan India’s RBI double in the 2nd inning to increase the Reds lead to 2-1 (runners on 2nd & 3rd with 1 out). That play increased the Reds probability of winning by 14.6% (from 54.0% to 68.6%).
Vladimir Gutierrez was just awesome: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K. The Brewers had just a .157 expected batting average tonight off Vlad. What a lift he has been to the Reds rotation, and at a time they desperately needed it.
Jonathan India reached base four times. The rookie now has a 116 wRC+ on the season.
Joey Votto hit his third home run since returning from the IL.
Aristides Aquino made his first start since returning from the IL. He had a key walk in the Reds second inning rally, hit a bomb and made a really nice running catch. Aquino was in CF tonight, and it looks like the plan will be for Aquino to platoon there with Naquin. The Reds have control of the 27-year old Aquino through the 2024 season.
Heath Hembree struck out all three batters he faced, and threw the fastest pitch of anyone on the night at 97.2 MPH. Hembree entered the day with a 2.86 expected ERA according to Statcast. There just might be something there if he can find a way to keep the ball in the park a little bit better.
Amir Garrett pitched a perfect inning, striking out 2. Garrett’s season numbers still look really brutal, but he has not allowed a run in 11 of his last 14 appearances.
The Cardinals finally won a game tonight.
Not so random thoughts……………..
The Brewers did not have to pitch Eric Lauer tonight. They are currently going with a six man rotation, which also means that Brandon Woodruff will not pitch the series finale (he could on normal rest). Depending on how tomorrow goes, Craig Cousell could really come to regret that move.
You have to wonder if either Sean Doolittle is hurt or completely fallen off the depth chart. Bell elected to go with Hembree in the 7th inning, despite two left-handed batters due up at the bottom of the Brewers order.
Reds at Brewers
Tuesday, 8:10 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Luis Castillo (4.03 xERA) vs Brett Anderson (8.31 xERA)