The Cincinnati Reds have no dilemmas when it comes to who should man the corner outfield positions, what with two potential MVP candidates currently manning each of those positions. Center field, however, is a different story. With the return of Shogo Akiyama from the injured list at the beginning of May, manager David Bell has had a tough time trying to get playing time for the second-year outfielder.
That lack of playing time is due in part to Tyler Naquin the first couple months of the season. Over the course of his six year career, Naquin is a .271/.325/.453 hitter with a career OPS+ of 102. For most of his career, he’s always been about average. In Cleveland, Naquin was always more of a platoon player. In 2021, he already has more than half the number of plate appearances he got in 2016, his rookie year, when he played in 116 games. He’s currently hitting .259/.333/.506 with a 117 OPS+. He started off hot and has carried that success through May and into June. In April, he recorded an OPS of .914, with six of his 11 home runs coming that month. He’s three shy of his career high in home runs and has the second-most walks of his career.
Naquin really hasn’t gone into a slump either. His real struggle has been against left-handed pitching. In 2021, he’s hitting .265 against right-handers and only .211 against left-handers. This really is nothing new, as he owns a .227 career average against lefties. And it’s why Bell has platooned him when the Reds face a lefty. Naquin is still getting a lot of starts though. He played everyday the last week of May and has started in every game since June 1. Most of this is due to the fact that there are more right-handers in the game of baseball. However, when Naquin does sit, it seems that Scott Heineman gets the start over Akiyama.
While Akiyama struggled to hit lefties in 2020 (.190/.261/.238), he hasn’t gotten much of a chance to hit against them in 2021, even though he had a career .282 average against left-handed pitchers in Japan. Yet, he’s only faced lefties four times this year, and is 1-for-4 against them. Recently, Bell has started double-switching Akiyama into the game in the late innings (three times since May 29th). When he does that, however, Akiyama only gets one or two at-bats a game. It can be hard to build any type of momentum when a player isn’t playing everyday or only coming in late in the game, especially when that player is coming off an injury. It’s hard enough to adjust to the major leagues. Add in an injury during spring training and Akiyama’s had even more to adjust to.
Akiyama deserves a chance to show what he can do. He was a .300 hitter in Japan. Yes, the Nippon Professional Baseball league doesn’t have the same level of pitching that MLB does, but being a career .300 hitter should count for something. Akiyama set a NPB record for most hits in a season with 216 in 2015. He was not just a random player in Japan; he was one of the best hitters in the league.
It does take time to adjust though and the Reds don’t appear to be patient enough right now, with them floundering around .500 and being 4.5 games out of the division race. However, Akiyama has been making progress and might be turning the corner. In the last seven days, he’s hitting .364 with four hits, two RBI and a run scored.
We got a glimpse of what Akiyama can do last year. After an atrocious start hitting .192/.280/.247 in August (I don’t blame him for it, however, what with adjusting to life with a big league team and life in a new country, all with Covid rules and restrictions), he started to hit better. He finished the season with a .317/.456/.365 slash line in September, while walking 15 times and only striking out 12 times.
It all comes down to whether the Reds want another power bat in the lineup or not. Each player has their own unique skill set. Naquin can hit home runs, while Akiyama provides defense and speed. I think Akiyama has earned a chance to get more playing time from what he did last September. And even though he started slow after his injury, he’s starting to hit again. The Reds need that speedy player at the top of lineup who can also get on base for Winker and Castellanos. It might be time to give him the opportunity to play more frequently.
Stats through June 8, 2021.
The lead-off question is offset at least a bit by using India. And I don’t see Naquin batting 8th (or 9th) on the other end where we’ve repeatedly seen Shogo there.
Frankly, I like the mix, perhaps favoring Shogo in the bigger ballparks to get a little edge on defense back.
My question is about what happens when Senzel and/or Aquino show back up from the IL? To answer that, somebody (or somebodies) will need to head to the trading block. That’s a tough choice given the uptick in injuries we’re seeing.
Good article, Ashley. But a pretty tough dilemma as I see it. I’ll be interested to see what others think. Shogo definitely needs more AB’s. I don’t think that’s a debate at all.
Mark you make good points and Ashley this was a great article with very key points. For me the answer is Shogo we signed him for a reason and we need to provide him the opportunity to gain that much needed experience. In regards to Senzel and Aquino I think the answer is Senzel is in long term planes where Aquino was not so much. While Aquino is exciting or has been in the past, that doesn’t pay the bills in September and October. Senzel can easily be moved back to one of his many original positions but then what do you do with Jonathan India. In terms of management these seem like good problems to have but frankly there really isn’t an answer. One thing I know is that Shogo should be the primary CF with Naquin backing him up. Senzel needs to fill the role he has shown promise to be in the minors and David Bell needs to manage his players roles in a more consistent manner. Either way we are playing some good baseball right now and that in itself is super fun to watch.
This might be the unpopular take in Reds country, but Senzel’s numbers have been poor enough that you can easily justify optioning him to Louisville when he’s off the injured list.
Well–it would clear space
It would. It would also let him get regular at bats. The Reds face mostly righties. No way do you sit Naquin vs righties while he’s hitting like he is. I really like Senzel, but with Aquino’s unoptionable, and Naquin’s emergence, he should be the odd man out.
I don’t care about unpopular you are right on he has showed very little to make such a BIG fuss.
Trade one of them for a serviceable Left handed reliever. Then option AG to the minors or release him.
I was going to suggest that the playing of Naquin everyday might be an attempt to highlight him for a trade of bullpen help.
They know what they have in Akiyama. Playing Heineman may be to determine if he is a possible legit backup.
I like both options for CF (Naquin and Akiyama). We’ve had so many injuries this year, having four starting outfielders is needed.
Two things:
1) Heineman should never get a start, unless we have more injuries. I’d much rather see what Shogo can do against a lefty.
2) I don’t trade either player. I’m 95% sure Cast is gone next year (maybe by the trade deadline this year). I’m keeping both outfielders (unless we’re getting great relief pitching with team control in return for the trade).
Your #1 point is excellent. The handedness argument is nonsense if the righty you play is hitting .091
And especially on Shogo night at GABP–i mean did Shogo expectorate in Bell’s or Krall’s Cheerios? I popped off about it in the game thread, perhaps a little heatedly. But for the player’s sake, I’d like to see him end up with decent playing time SOMEwhere. With Naquin having recently tweaked some soft tissue somewhere in a lower extremity, perhaps Shogo will get his chance? I have to think that the Reds are shopping Akiyama–it would be stupid not to–so perhaps no one else wants him. There is a reason he signed with Cincinnati when he theoretically could have been had by other teams with more resources. (The same goes for Moustakas for that matter lol.)
Of course there is the argument that Heinemann would not have been able to get his walk if he were not a right handed batter.
I agree! Heineman should never get the nod over Shogo or Tyler. When Aquino comes back, we’re going to have a logjam, baring an injury. A trade for some bullpen help, desperately needed, seems the prudent way to go.
Thanks for the article. 🙂 I just wrote a pretty long comment but somehow it didn’t go through so I’ll try again. LOL In my view it has to be Naquin out of the two. I read recently that he led the America League in outfield assists in 2019 and was second in 2020. That shows a pretty good arm which Aki, unfortunately does not have. Naquin is much more of an all around player as he, like Aki, can track the ball well, has good range, good speed, a decent BA and OBP, but clearly wins the power and arm battle. He has more tools to work with. While he has played a lot of CF, Aki is basically only a LF because of that weak arm and certainly not going to take time away from Winker. Aki is the odd man out and needs to be traded as I’ve stated on here before. Of course the Reds should get as much for him as they can and Ideally that would be a good reliever. No matter what they get in return they need to pull the trigger if someone will take him. It will be best for him and declutter our outfield. Here’s how the outfield should look soon.
Winker
Casty
Naquin
Aquino
Two lefties and two righties. David Bell should love that. lol
Only four with Lorenzen being the fifth if needed. As you stated right now there just aren’t enough ABs to go around and it’s very hard for a player to “get going”.
I know people will be saying what about Senzel? Well in my view he has to prove he can stay on the field and prove he’s worthy before he get’s a regular position. I know it’s not his fault as he tries very hard but nevertheless that’s the situation his body has put him in. He can be a supersub that can basically play anywhere except pitcher and catcher.
I wish Aki well. He will never be anything more than a platoon player with the Reds even in a best case scenario. That’s what Bell put him in the first game of last year. Some team will be happy to have him and give him a shot.
Agree with all points. It’s Naquin for me, hands down. I just doubt that any team is going to take what is a bad contract off the Reds’ hands, so I see Akiyama as a 4th or 5th OF (with Aquino returning), They really need to bubble-wrap Senzel now, and trade in the offseason.
I confess I feel bad for Akiyama. It was going to be a transition to MLB in any event. He had to make that transition in the weirdest and shortest season in MLB history. He then has the injury, and now the limited playing time. I don’t believe he has the real equivalent of half an MLB season yet, so based on what he did in Japan, I feel there is still some real upside once and if he can settle into the MLB game.
I saw Naquin a lot in Cleveland and he is any easy guy to root for. I am glad he is doing well and making the Indians pay for designating him to save $2 million in arbitration.
Maybe he has made an adjustment that will stick, but I am skeptical that long term he will be anything other than an average outfield bat and likely platoon candidate. Aki might get more in a trade, but I am reluctant to give up his upside when I am not sure this season is going anywhere. And with Cast likely to opt out next season according to most sources, there is an argument for keeping both and aiming for 2021 rather than trading a position player for a reliever who likely is not going to get us over the hump for a playoff spot this year.
All of this comes down to poor roster construction. This always felt like more of a Strato/OOTP/Fantasy roster than an actual MLB one. Too many 3B, too many OF, and no real SS. That is what put us in this position.
“All of this comes down to poor roster construction. This always felt like more of a Strato/OOTP/Fantasy roster than an actual MLB one. Too many 3B, too many OF, and no real SS. That is what put us in this position.”
Excellent summary
+1000 on the roster construction comment.
I dont get Bell treating AAAA+ role players who are on the roster for a cup of coffee due to someone else’s injury and platooning or rotating them equally with high investment core players, whether it be a prospect capital investment in the draft or free agent money outlay as in Shogo.
Reds invested 3 years and 24 million into Shogo. Play the guy when the roster is filled with AAAA guys due to injuries.
Last year Bell had his handedness soup of mix and match ingredients with Winker/Shogo/Jankowski/Van Meter/ERvin/Aquino/Matt Davidson all rotating in dizzying speeds with the DH/handednessmatchups/ pitching changes. A top 50 overall pick is not inferior to a journeyman 30 year old simply based on handedness.
Now that there’s no DH but also a plethora of double switch opportunities- you are seeing Bell do what Bell does.
Last year Matt Davidson and Phil Ervin played against righties over Winker and Shogo. This year, Apparently Heineman plays over Shogo.
In 2019, Puig played every day in RF and so you had the Dietrich/Peraza/ Schebler/Matt Kemp/Winker/Ervin/Vanmeter/Aquino/ and Galvis addition also thrown into Bell’s soup.
There’s no master plan. Kemp and Schebler and Ervin and Galvis and Peraza and Dietrich and Matt Davidson and Jankowski all got rotations. Where are they now? This year Bell rotates in Schrock and Payton and Freeman and Heineman behind Farmers .590 OPS. The result of Bell’s rotations and injuries are that very few players under his managerial tenure actually ever qualify for MLB stats needing the requisite 3.1 AB’s per game played.
Injuries certainly contribute but as we are seeing with Heineman platooning over Shogo and Peraza platooning in 2019 over Winker in LF and Matt Davidson in the DH over Winker in 2020, Jankowski getting time in CF over Senzel or Mike Freeman double switching at 2b for India- that’s just how Bell does it and is his greatest flaw as a manager IMO. I want to see the core players play.
+1000
Nailed it
Old-school nails it again. I think it’s pretty obvious that David Bell is the primary destructive component on this team but you have refreshed the names of the quickly forgotten “players” that he has rotated through his cornfield for the primary purpose of making this “handedness soup of mix and match ingredients.” Indeed!
I mean, reading that summary made it all too clear how futile the DB strategy really has been.
The Reds have vet guys that play regardless of how they perform.Bell platoons everybody else regardless of how they play.Last nights line up is proof and that’s why we are always going to struggle to score.The data says that Naquin is better then average and how many of those do we have on this roster?Bell just like every other manager does great when he has little to do but the more he does the worse it gets.The best lineup he can put on the field right now today does not include Suarez,Joey,Moose or Farmer.They do have a place on this team and we need them but Senz,TySteve,India and Garcia are just better,younger and cost little.Just dreaming of course.
Dead on. I’ll be curious whether Naquin holds up. I suspect Shogo is a better choice. Maybe it’s Naquin who should be traded for a LH reliever while he’s hitting well. As for Freeman, Heineman, Farmer, et. al., these guys are not everyday starters regardless of the pitcher/circumstance.
I’m no DB apologist but this just smacks of unearned criticism. The position players on opening day roster with proven MLB track records were Votto, Suarez and Castellanos. The others had either no proven successful track record (Farmer) or the track record proved they couldn’t hit the opposite pitching hand (naquin, aquino, Winker) or couldn’t stay on the field ( senzel). Hard to say any of these guys were part of some vaunted offensive core that deserved to play every day. So hitting a LH vs. RH pitching and vice versa seems very logical to me for this squad going into 2021 – not a sign of over-managing.
His management of the pitching staff can certainly be picked at but I’ve always put most of that on the pitching coach in modern times – especially bullpen. And regarding the offense- our Reds rank in top 6 in MLB in almost every key category so far in 2021.
A good article to pinpoint the pivotal position of center field. Castellanos has become a leader of the Reds, and I’m not so sure this is his last year if the Reds make a competitive move in the NLC and a real effort to acquire an affective lefty reliever for the late innings. I pull for AG but I don’t think he’s the answer. I see Akiyama as more tradeable, with Naquin and Aquino covering centerfield.
Not only is Akiyama probably more tradeable, moving the remaining balance of his $7M salary could help free up money for a rental SS or bullpen guy. Dare I say this would be a “Cardinals way” approach to the situation?
sigh….what fool is trading for Shogo and his ridiculous contract. Last I checked George Steinbrenner isn’t running the Yankees anymore. And the other GM’s in the league would like to retain their jobs.
Great dilemma. I also think Aki needs to play more. Interesting comment above about Naquin’s assists. Also, its clear he has more power. Perhaps basic defense and basepath speeds are comparable. Naquin I think is more a pull-hitter. I like Aki’s ability to slap the ball anywhere. He smoked a double down the right field line last night. I agree that perhaps he should play instead of Heineman, in order to get his ABs, even if its against lefties. Also, perhaps Aki’s more successful against certain types of pitchers than Naquin, and vice versa.
Also, need to look at the future. Hate to lose Castellanos, but ??? Yes Senzel will return. While certainly excited by Aquino’s debut…not sure we haven’t already gotten the best out of him. Probably should keep Aki, see if Naquin is for real, then decide.
I hope David Bell and the FO have a plan. Nice article as it demonstrates why I believe Shogo hasn’t gotten a reasonable chance. With the acquisition of Castellanos, maturation of Winker and the desire to keep the injury prone Senzel in the outfield, that left little daylight for him. We now have on our roster 6 OFs (4 of them left handed), and then 2 more when Senzel and Aquino return. Unless there is a blockbuster trade in the works, this only marginalizes Shogo and others in development, team skills and trade value. For goodness sakes, its obvious what the needs are and where the surplus is so trade up to 3 of these guys and soon!
NOTE; Although Shogo was kept out of the lineup on his “Bobblehead Day” by the only RH available (Scott Heineman, now batting .071), he did get 1AB after being moved in for defensive purposes and promptly swatted a double. Despite his major contributions to the late surge of 2020, that may be his enduring legacy here. Sad.
I don’t feel sorry for Shogo, not that I don’t think he should or shouldn’t play but right now it looks like we have a leadoff hitter in India (who also has some power) People keep talking about Shogo’s speed but Naquin is not that much slower and cover center well. He also has an arm which Shogo does not. The purpose is to win. The argument about Heineman I can’t argue with, he should not be starting. I am assuming that Aquino (and possibly Senzel) will spend their full rehab time at Louisville.
Naquin is 5-14 with 3 doubles and a HR so far in June. Its not a debate. Shogo is an interesting player, but I’d rather see AA or Lorenzen vs lefties. They actually put up 7 last night without a HR, but mlb is still homer driven. I can’t remember if AA has played CF, but he’s 5-15 with a HR & 7 walks at Louisville. He’s a concern at the plate. Scott Heineman is not a concern))) They should be swapping those 2 out immediately! I remember Wink playing CF, but Wink/Suarez up the middle on defense would not be advisable….lol))))))))))
Shogo to the Yankees might actually work? We wouldn’t get much, but he might get to play and thats fair to him. They have nothing in the OF and somebody on base in front of Stanton/Judge makes sense!
AA could be Jonny Gomes with some defensive ability. Call him up already! 5 for 15 with 2 doubles, HR, and 7 walks? They’re obviously scared of the Punisher!
Oh ok. Thanks for sharing
AA isn’t eligible to be activated until June 13.
So do I understand this correctly? You want to take at bats away from the number 7 RBI guy in the league nd leading Red to give them to a guy that has hit 0 home runs in his mlb career?
This.
I’m not sure where this team would be without Naquin’s 38 RBIs and .839 OPS. He has filled a gaping hole left by Votto, Moose, and Suarez. Sit him for Shogo? That’s a bad joke.
Exactly!!!!
It’s got you commenting though, hasn’t it?
And that is the goal of any blog article
You answered your own question Doc. Maybe the real question isn’t whether Naquin or Shogo starts. Maybe the real question is why Votto, Suarez, and Moose are.
No, I am advocating them the Reds try to actually complete a trade or two before the July 30 deadline (preferably sooner). Naquin forced his way him and belongs. But, clear the deck on any of the others. We don’t need 6 decent guys and 2 or 3 hopefuls jamming up the outfield while an upgrade at SS and a long reliever are sorely needed. Might want to jettison 1 of the 5 third baseman as well.
+1000
Nick Castellanos is perhaps my favorite reds FA signee ever. Love the player and how he brings it every game. He truly represents Reds baseball at its finest.
That said- when you look at Rendon’s 7 year $245 mil contract age 31 and josh Donaldson 4/92 at age 35- nick C is younger and an MVP candidate.
6 years and 200 mil isnt unreasonable and Reds wont sign him.
So its not either/or with Naquin or Shogo. Its both in 2022.
The reds have team control over Winker and Shogo and Naquin and Aquino and Senzel. The bigger question is where is the prospect capital in AA/AAA or even high A after them?
You know, this should not be overlooked, and if the Reds are thinking this way then I feel better—next season Akiyama could be a core outfielder.
Have there been any sources speculating any reason that Castellanos would not opt out?
Scott Boras is Castellanos’ agent. So, I would be shocked if he doesn’t opt out. Boras is famous for getting the most money for his clients and unless Castellanos does a complete swoon in the 2nd half, he’s 99.9% sure to opt out. Or at least that’s my guess.
Unfortunately, like many issues on the roster, there is a fit issue. It was always a bit suspect to sign Akiyama in the first place considering the Reds had, at the time, Winker, Senzel, and Aquino in the fold and then went and signed Castellanos a few weeks later. Add Naquin to the mix this season and it becomes even more muddy. The Reds have a solid collection of OF’ers and 3B, but no SS. Figuring out how to turn surplus into areas of need should be a priority for the FO.
Between Shogo & Naquin, I would trade the one that brings you the most in a trade. I would also consider trading Senzel.
I see the lineup for today’s game once again sits Stephenson who was 2-4 with 3 rbi’s but plays Votto who was hitless. It’s time for Votto, Reds management, and the fan base to accept the fact that the Reds are a better team when Votto isn’t starting. Nor Suarez, who should be traded, for that matter. Quit clinging to what they used to be and look at what they are. I’d like to have Rose, Bench, and Morgan back in the lineup but that’s not possible. Or Larkin & Junior. Players age. They decline. They die. You can’t cling to the past, even when it’s so easy to do so.
Stephenson caught 9 innings last night and; now it is a quick turnaround for the matinee game. So, I can see the logic in sitting him today.
Overall, the fact seems to be emerging that the lineup works better with Stephenson in it than with him not in it. Sitting Votto is one option to make that happen. Sitting Barnhart who has leveled out then regressed offensively is another. I’d like to see the balls juggled in such a way that TS is in 2 days of every 3.
He’s younger than either of us and probably paid better. First base wouldn’t tire him too much. Look at the catchers of the past that often caught both games of a DH: Bench, Munson, Carter, Sanguillen, Yogi (145 DHs). Maybe it was physically stressful, maybe it was even crazy. But the game has decayed like the rest of us I guess.
I like Akiyama as a player; but, as many have already noted, he is caught on the short end of what we used to call a numbers game back in the olden days.
At this point in Akiyama’s career, I don’t think he is enough of a defensive asset over Naquin’s defense in CF to offset the greater offensive value of Naquin. And since Naquin and Akiyama bat from the same side of the plate, neither does he have platoon value leverage.
The Reds need to do Akiyama and themselves a favor by finding a team that will take him as their 4th OF. The salary savings gained by the Reds could make the difference in acquiring a rental SS or bullpen guy, either of which could be the difference in making the post season or not which as a Reds player Akiyama does not seem destined to be.
If you were a GM would you give up anything of value for a weak slap-hitting OF with no power or arm and is owed $11M through 2022 season?
Just getting the $11M off the books is getting something potentially important to the Reds. This said, I’d guess there are contending teams, probably in the DH league, that would have a use for Akiyama as their 4th OF/ late game defensive replacement.
If the Reds have to sweeten the deal with a prospect there are guys NOT very top tier but still better than lottery picks that could be bundled in.
I think it’s not a question of which is better, but which one do we need today, and which one do we need when everyone is healthy. We had been missing JV, and MM bats, which are left handed power bats, and thankfully Naquin filled that role. With a fully healthy team, Shogo might make more sense. Having a table setter or 2, if India continues to produce, is more important. Then you have a lot more RBI chances for Winker and Castellanos.
Let’s play Bell’s handedness game. In 2017, Votto’s L/R BA was .292/.331. In 2018, .260/.298. In 2019, .243/.268. In 2020, .178/.241. And this year, .156/.241, new stance and all. There’s no statistical argument that says Votto starts against lefties. In fact, the numbers raise the question of whether he should start at al. Tyler Stephenson, obviously a much smaller sample size, L/R is .294/.258. Suarez, 2019 L/R, .276/.270. In 2020, .176/.211 (breaks the handedness argument). This year, L/R, .116/.173 (again better against RH). Heineman is below .200 regardless of the pitcher. So let’s quit crediting Bell as an “analytics-oriented” manager. The numbers don’t support it. The wrong manager – the wrong players.
Great point LDS, I wonder if Bell has his hands tied with Votto. That part of the line up card is written in shaded out typeset until the contract is up. I am impressed with Stephenson and India. I would want the Reds to make a good trade to help out the team but I don’t think even the front office trusts themselves after all of the failures in the trade market the past few years.
Stephenson will be spelling Barnhart vs LHP so 1B isn’t even really an option. In a small sample TS wears out lefties so far but he also displays subliminal power overall batting right. He’s hitting but .171 in all his work at first base with but 6 singles and a double in 47 plate appearances there plus 11 walks and 1 HBP … this is a #8 hitter vs RHP not a 4 … catchers generally have good judgement of balls and strikes for hitting 8th because they do it so much and have plus hand/eye skills and ’cause pitchers won’t come over the plate much with the pitcher on deck. C also understands how P thinks ….
Subminimal … before autocorrect lol
Votto is a sacred cow his name is in the lineup until the contract is up. The Reds probably don’t trust themselves with all the bad trades they have been “taken” for, so they may not be aggressive in the trade front.
Bottom of the ninth, game seven of the World Series with a runner on second and you trail by one. Who do you want to bat?
Mike Trout
Amen
I cringe saying this Yadier Molina