The Cincinnati Reds (28-30) are coming off a very deflating loss yesterday to the Milwaukee Brewers (34-26), when they lost Sonny Gray. The two teams will do battle again tonight at 7:10 PM. The Reds enter play 5.0 games behind the first place Brewers in the NL Central.
There is a 43%-51% chance or rain every hour from 7:00 PM to 7:00 AM tonight. The radar doesn’t look too terribly bad, so we might be able to get this game in with a possible delay at some point.
Starting Pitchers
Tonight is a good pitching matchup for Vladimir Gutierrez. Vlad has a 3.23 expected ERA according to Statcast through his first two starts. David Bell would probably love to get five innings from Gutierrez, before turning the ball over to Antone and Sims (who have got a much needed two days of rest).
Brett Anderson has the worst expected ERA in baseball at 8.58 of anyone with 30+ IP. The next worst is Marco Gonzalez at 7.27, and the worst after that is Michael Wacha at 6.53. Anderson’s start against the Reds earlier this year was frustrating: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 3 K. Heineman and Winker hit solo home runs. Anderson has a career 4.25 ERA in 8 starts against the Reds (3.92 ERA in 4 starts at GABP).
Starting Lineups
Milwaukee Brewers
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
| Luis Urías – 2B | Jonathan India – 2B |
| Daniel Vogelbach – 1B | Jesse Winker – LF |
| Christian Yelich – LF | Nick Castellanos – RF |
| Avisaíl García – RF | Tyler Stephenson – C |
| Omar Nárvaez – C | Joey Votto – 1B |
| Travis Shaw – 3B | Eugenio Suarez – 3B |
| Willy Adames – SS | Scott Heineman – CF |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. – CF | Kyle Farmer – SS |
| Brett Anderson – SP | Vladimir Gutierrez – SP |
Nick Castellanos is hitting .410/.425/.744 this season vs LHP. Tyler Stephenson has an .815 career OPS vs LHP.
Sonny Gray placed on the Injured List
In case you missed the news this afternoon, the Cincinnati Reds placed Sonny Gray on the injured list today. The news wasn’t terrible, though, as it sounds like he’s only expected to miss two starts.
Conclusion
This is a series the Reds really need against the NL Central leaders. The Reds need a big start from Vlad and the bats to do what they should against Brett Anderson. Go Reds!
Good news about Gray. Could have been a lot worse. May be a blessing in disguise if it forces the call up of some young talented pitchers (at least one). Could help in the long run. Need to win now. That’s for sure.
Lorenzen wasn’t expected to be out long at first either. Pretty much every injured Red spends a lot longer on the IL than initially projected.
Trying to stay positive here. lol Not easy. 🙂
Bring in some of the legit pitching we have on the farm. Garret and some of these guys have football era. A field goal or bubble screen for 6 pts is to often the winning plan against this backend of the bullpen. Work them in while the season is young. Put the rest up for trade bait before the deadline.
Thanks Nick. Your efforts are an important asset to RNL!
Go Reds.
Thanks Nick for the update on Sonny! Hope he returns to form soon! One of my favorite Reds players!
All thanks to Doug Gray for that, he finished off the preview with the lineup and notes from late this afternoon!
As for tonight’s game, need some hits and more than one measly run! And, PLEASE, Vlad, NO WALKS! This current edition of the Brewers is LAST in hitting in the NL with a Team BA of only .211. Pitch to contact and good things will happen! Go Reds! Let’s start another win streak!
Alfredo Rodriguez has played SS once in a week. Off days/rain/DNP/ multiple DH games and 2b. Sounds like a throwing arm issue but if hes not playing SS inLouisville regularly… hes not being promoted anytime soon to play SS in cincy.
Votto/Suarez, will either of them get a hit tonight? If not the last 5 slots in the lineup are concerning.
Winker’s lightning speed. lol
Anyone know why Naquin isn’t playing. Heineman’s ave. is 0.091 !
Good hitting by Tyler Steve there.
Now’s the opportunity for Votto/Suarez to prove me wrong. I’d like to be wrong.
Not what I had in mind but I’ll take it.
Eddie Gaedel is the home plate ump tonight.
Brewers having some issues with the leather so far.
Got the run home. Good job Votto.
The lead run came in but neither Votto nor Suarez got a hit with RISP. Disappointing.
I know but getting the run home is the most important thing there. Got to play small ball at times. Much better than a K or a pop up. Any time we can score without an HR is a big deal for us.
Hits and runners on base is the way to upset the applecart of the opposition.
Gutierrez is quickly becoming much watch tv. Let’s hope for similar success for Gray’s temporary successor.
It is a sad fact that Suarez has the most at bats in the team. When Moose comes back he needs to sit, but I am afraid Bell will sit India.
India at SS….India at SS….India at SS….did I say try India at SS? 🙂
Shogo came here to be well paid due to his long and productive career in Japanese baseball. However, it was pointed out that he has been given only 1 opportunity to start against a left handed pitcher in his tenure here. Some bad luck and the rise of Naquin have further limited his opportunities this year.
Nevertheless, today is Shogo Akiyama Bobblehead Promotion Day. Well, the Brewers are starting a southpaw today so CF is given to Heineman, who is 1 for 11 this year and really doesn’t serve any function on this team. This is bad baseball strategy, bad PR for the people who came for this promotion, and somewhat humiliating for Shogo if he doesn’t get at least a few ABs in this game. Maybe I’m overreacting but this really stinks IMO.
I agree with you when it comes to Heineman, but not Aquino. They’re so lefty oriented that I don’t know why they signed both Moose & Shogo?
You know I’m a big Aquino fan. Looking forward to his return.
Shogo’s agent and probably all of Japan should be blowing up Nick Krall’s and Bob C’s phone demanding to get away from this stinkingly run organization
He’s been beaten out? You playing him over Naquin? Scott Heineman played 2 games and already outhomered Shogo as a Red. You and I are tied with him))
At DataD says, “However, it was pointed out that he has been given only 1 opportunity to start against a left handed pitcher in his tenure here.”
However, I think he should be trying to get off the team regardless
Heineman would not have been my first choice tonight. Let’s hope it works. Aki is a good guy with talent. Needs to be traded for his own good.
Shogo for a needed relief pitcher.
That would work. We really need to declutter our outfield one way or another. Any team that would take him for whatever it would help both sides.
He is the unlikely casualty of Naquin’s success. I like Shogo a lot. He’s our only true leadoff hitter, but Naquin’s bat is just to good to keep out of the lineup. Heineman shouldn’t even be on the 26 man, let alone getting a start.
@DD
Lance McCalister had several tweets today on Shogo and Bell starting the RH hitting AAA du jour over him
Krall must not be a Shogo guy and wants every one to know that was DW signing. Bell -a former role player and 7th round pick – probably is on the same page with Krall.
Vlad’s stuff is a little short, but I’ll take him over Hoffman any day of the week. He pounds the zone and has the other team in swing mode.
Agree but wow when you’re depending on 2 guys that aren’t hitting and followed by 2 guys that generally can’t, it really puts a burden on 1-4.
Yeah I know. We do need more situational hitting though….a lot more.
Guti is becoming more likable all the time.
Where did Shaw get hit?
Think he landed poorly and did some damage to his shoulder.
Jammed his shoulder on the dive. Reminded me of the Ludwick injury
He didn’t get hit, it happened when he laid out reaching for the ball. I still couldn’t exactly tell what happened, but his glove shoulder seemed to be the injury.
There we go baby!! Now lets see if the pitcher running the bases effect comes back to haunt Vlad? I’ve seen it a million times!
This is a wacky game tonight. Might wind up 23-18.
Is Gutierrez throat tattoo a Black Widow?
Was wondering the same thing…. looks like something off the Centipede game in the 80s.
31 pitches in three innings. Would be very cool to see Guti go 7 or 8 tonight.
He was i think 77 in 5 innings last game, could have had 6 or 7, but was pulled for a pinch hitter, because our offense couldn’t score any runs. Today seems to be a better scenario for Vlad!
Just tuned in and we’re up 5-1. Only 31 pitches for Vlad through 3. I like those numbers.
I suspect Vlad is a 4.70 5th starter type when its all said & done, but he gets it mentally anyway and thats huge! He attacks with 93 mph while guys like Hendrix throw 97 trying to dot the corners and go 2-0 on every hitter.
Real question, why would you make that assumption on Vlad? Seems to have good stuff, and control. Like you said he attacks the zone. What am I not seeing?
After 2 1/2 games in the big leagues and you know this how? Some of the crap on here is amazing.
Dropped in to say how glad I am we have a competitive team. I would say something negative but lots of other people seem to have that covered. Glad the future HOF Votto is back and it really looks like Geno is seeing the ball better and has hit into some tough luck lately. Doug and crew, thanks for the great fansite. I read it everyday and really appreciate the coverage.
Welcome brother. Post more often! I agree with you that Geno is slowly turning it around!
Votto vs LHP is an issue though!
2019 .243 (.656 ops) 1 hr in 152 at-bats
2020 .178 (.673)
2021 .161 so far
They need to be realistic. He’s barely 50% of what he once was. Let Nick or Wink or somebody work on 1B vs lefties and let Aquino play. We’d be better defensively and hitting wise! AA has a cannon!
I would agree with hitting him lower in the order but I believe his value to the team goes deeper than just average. I also want to see what a full season with his new batting stance before I write him off.
JV’s numbers have declined year over year since 2017. Isn’t counting on a new stance somewhat optimistic? The Reds have better options IMO.
Knuckled down and finished that inning in a fine way.
Agree Mark! But would still have a short leash with Vlad! We always have Do Little and AG!
haha Cut it out. 🙂
I think the best asset for Vlad is the extreme change in pitch speeds. He can twirl that 73 mph breaking ball up there making his 94 mph heater look much faster than it is. And most importantly, he is throwing them both for strikes. Tejay-light, if you will.
It looked completely filthy. The drop on those things.
I like this Stephenson kid … I really do.
Love him hitting to all fields.
He was under .200 in May, but he’s always patient and still got his walks. He’s a keeper although somewhat blocked with Votto/Tucker. The Reds desperately need the Universal DH! Much more then most I would think.
It’s looking more and more like Votto can’t hit lefties any longer. I think the answer is more bench time. I’d rather trust Barnhart-Stephenson against lefties rather than Votto-Stephenson.
I was typing the same comment! I’m beginning to really like this Stephenson guy!
Who else caught that Votto interview clip talking about Cardinal fans?
It was EPIC….look it up!!!!
Nice hitting by Stephenson with the 2-RBI double (preceded by good eyes at the plate by Winker and Castellanos).
Pour it on!
Awesome Stephenson…a hitter.
Joey needs to learn to catch
I think he needs to study his buddy JB’s retirement speech
“When I can’t play up to my capabilities then its time to go” He can go hang out with Aaron Rodgers! Think about…..his legacy as a great Red and then helping the Reds financially would forever cement him! Or? Go the Pujols/Miggy Cabrera route and just cash those checks and never look at the stats. Can’t blame him I guess
JV needs to accept reality and retire.
Bruce walked away from 1.2 mil
Walking away from 65 mil or whatever is a completely different story
Still though…how much does someone need? The organization has been great to you so maybe you’re good to them too?
I’d rather he avoid the Pujolis indignity of being waived at some point. I’ve always found it depressing that athletes hang on well past the time they should hang tie up. Muhammad Ali being a prime example. What a tragedy that was.
Not to mention life is short. Votto will be an old man like me before he knows it. He should have $100 mil or whatever in the bank so go out and live your life. The Reds are so hamstrung with his contract that it greatly damages their chance to compete. So you end up like Pujols and Miggy just losing year after year after year while your skills keep declining. Why not go live your life? He’s not a meathead athlete with no other brain activity outside of baseball.
And apparently could find some success in the booth. Not to mention as a hitting instructor, etc.
How can we not play India and TySteve?
3rd time through the lineup for Vlad! I’ve got my fingers crossed
Loved hearing Larkin talk about how much the guys in the clubhouse look up to Votto and how much Votto loves putting on the uniform and representing the city. He has the leadership intangibles that are so important on a championship team. I am still going to keep faith that he will regain his timing after the DL stint. If you look at his underlying stats before the broken thumb, his BABIP was really low and he was up there in hard hits %. I could see the work he did in the offseason paying dividends before he was injured.
Grabbed this nugget from MLB trade rumors to highlight what I mean about JV’s hitting: “For instance, Votto ranks well above average in several important Statcast categories – including expected weighted on-base average (his .377 xwOBA far outdoes his .319 real wOBA) – so his meager .250 batting average on balls in play seems likely to increase.”
Thats vs rhp I’m sure. He’s helpless vs lefties and has been for years
Control yourself David Bell. Let him work through it if possible. Remember your bullpen. Calm down.
Got to take Votto and Suarez out of the middle of the lineup. What a hole it creates. Votto is creating close to joining Suarez below the Mendoza Line.
No way is Votto same category as Suarez to me.
All right. Five innings. 73 pitches. 7-2 Let’s keep going.
One more inning at least if he can limit the walks!
He only had 2 walks, seems to be doing a good job on that. I think that one inning from last game is throwing some people off on Vlad.
Well that was a productive 6 innings from Vlad.
He batted lead off the inning, so hopefully he’ll get a chance at 7 full.
Apparently Vlad doesn’t want to go back to the minors!
I agree! I blew off his first start because it was 45 degrees in Chicago with the wind howling in, but he competes and he doesn’t fall into any set pattern either. Could be a solid back of the rotation guy moving forward!
Stay away Bell, let Vlad go
Avi is going to make it 7-4. Hope I’m wrong
Whew. What a nice start tonite! Bell needed it desperately
A big hand for the Rookie on the mound!
Vladimir Gutierrez has grit. I’m sure he learned the game on the hard scrabble diamonds of Cuba.
Ok, 7 innings and 102 pitches. Bell fall asleep?
Awsome
Maybe you should join him
That’ll do Vlad! That’ll do!
Vlad the baseballer.
Standing ovation for Gutierrez was nice to see. The young man earned it tonight. We have some great fans. Lt’s hope AG has another good outing tonight to build on last nights good outing.
While watching this guy throw during spring training I told my wife he was pretty good. she agreed that she couldn’t hit him so I say leave him in
That was a weird single. I can see how it froze JV. Very odd to watch.
They’re talking about Schatzi, Marge’s dog on tv. Schatzi means sweetheart in German if anyone cares))) My last name is very close, but no C. I think they Americanized 100+ years ago because German-Americans were discriminated against somewhat in the WW1 era.
Very likely the case.
And the poop story from Larkin was hilarious.
I had a Pomeranian named schatzi given to me by a reds fan sad when she left
baserunning……..ugh
5 time outs??? I’ve never heard that pitch until tonight.
How does Votto not advance to third on that single? That will likely cost a run.
He didn’t go even 1/3rd of the way, he broke back a little when he thought it MIGHT be caught, and in the end it froze him. 80% on him from where I sit. Maybe a little less so.
AG had to walk someone! Is this an unwritten rule for Reds relief pitchers?
And we see Tinker Bell tonight after all.
We all knew it was coming. Why not TA or Sims holding those guys for some future game?
So if he leaves AG in there after the pinch hitter is announced and then he allows a couple of runs, you would give him credit for sticking with AG? What would your clever nickname be for him when he makes a good decision (at least a decision you agree with)? The guy is trying to win games and it seems he can’t catch a break from some of the professional commenters here.
No, the question was why with two on, he goes with a pitcher that often allows inherited runners to score. Pulling AG was not the issue. It worked out this time. But saving TA is not a strategy.
Why not TA or Sims? Need 4 outs!
Well, at least AG did not surrender a home run or give up any runs for that matter!
Nope. And he did well on flip from Joey after the bobble. So he ended up helping himself a bit.
Still watching but shutting down the computer for the night. Looking good at this point. Catch you all tomorrow.
How long is Bell going to wait! Until the lead is down to one (1) run or a tie score?
Not too bad for a “back of the rotation guy” lol
Now that’s funny!
Good show all around. Let’s come back tomorrow and take the series.
Double by Christian Yelich, Reds killer for years!
A starter over 100 pitches and a reliever over 20. Weird game for Bell. Good outcome but totally unexpected.
You must be talking about another team and a different manager! Good win! Great job by Vlad! Happy for him and the Reds organization!
Hembree finished and I like that.Yeah they homered and doubled but he finished.No problem with it.Easy game and easy to manage when you score a bunch early.Big game tomorrow so let’s play it close to the vest.I see 500 and 3 out this time tomorrow.
Bonus you have Antone and Sims fresh… now just hope Castillo gives them a chance.
Looking forward to build on the 60-60 record from opening day 2020. Time to break out above .500!