Cincinnati will look to see if Luis Castillo can resemble the guy he was his last time out as they try to pick up the series win this afternoon against the Brewers at 1:10pm ET. It could be a tough match up with Freddy Peralta, who has been pitching out of his mind this season for Milwaukee.
Starting Lineups
Milwaukee Brewers
|
Cincinnati Reds
|
| Kolten Wong – 2B | Jesse Winker – LF |
| Omar Narvaez – C | Nick Castellanos – RF |
| Christian Yelich – LF | Tyler Naquin – CF |
| Avisail Garcia – RF | Tyler Stephenson – 1B |
| Daniel Vogelbach – 1B | Tucker Barnhart – C |
| Travis Shaw – 3B | Eugenio Suarez – 3B |
| Willy Adames – SS | Max Schrock – 2B |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. – CF | Kyle Farmer – SS |
| Freddy Peralta – SP | Luis Castillo – SP |
Starting Pitchers
Luis Castillo
It’s been a tough year for Luis Castillo as he’s struggled to find consistency. His last time out on the mound he looked the best he has all year as he struck out 11 batters – more than he had in the previous three starts combined.
Both lefties and righties have had success this season against Castillo. Lefties are hitting .360/.409/.570 against him with 9 walks and 23 strikeouts in 110 plate appearances. Righties are “only” hitting .309/.371/.494 against him this year with 6 walks and 17 strikeouts in 92 plate appearances.
Pitch usage from 2021
| 4-Seam | Sinker | Change Up | Slider | |
| Velo | 96.4 | 96.3 | 87.0 | 84.8 |
| Usage | 28.6% | 19.8% | 34.3% | 17.3% |
Freddy Peralta
After spending the last two years mostly as a reliever, Freddy Peralta has moved to the rotation and has been dominant for the Brewers. He’s 4-1 with a 2.40 ERA and leads the league in strikeouts per 9-innings pitched and fewest hits allowed per 9-innings pitched.
As you would imagine with the above paragraph, no one is really hitting Peralta this year. Lefties had a .529 OPS against him, while righties had a .494 OPS against him. With that said, there’s a massive difference in how those numbers are arrived at. Righties had 8 walked and 45 strikeouts in 94 plate appearances against him this season. Lefties have 11 walks and 24 strikeouts against him. Lefties give you a far better chance at getting on base and making contact – but a .163 BABIP from lefties has really kept the numbers down.
If there’s a potential split in an incredibly small sample size it’s that Peralta has a 4.85 ERA in 3 road starts and he’s thrown just 13.0 innings.
Pitch usage from 2021
| 4-Seam | Slider | Change |
Curve | |
| Velo | 93.3 | 80.2 | 87.8 | 77.0 |
| Usage | 55.2% | 33.8% | 7.2% | 3.8% |
When and Where
- Game time: 1:10pm ET
- Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
- Watch: Bally Sports Ohio (formerly Fox Sports Ohio), MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 82°, partly cloudy, 10% chance of rain.
News and Notes
A No-Hitter in the Minors and an incredible catch
Last night the Daytona Tortugas combined for a 5-man no-hitter down on the farm. James Proctor started the game and struck out 11 batters in the first five innings before turning the game over to the bullpen. In Double-A TJ Hopkins made the catch of the year as he literally went through the outfield wall. If you like watching cool stuff, videos of both are available at RedsMinorLeagues.com.
Friday’s starter is in the air
With Wade Miley on the injured list someone is going to need to make a spot start. With Monday being an off day that gives the team some wiggle room to push that back a few days, but on Friday the team has officially listed the probable as TBA.
NL Central Standings
Playoff odds via Fangraphs
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff % |
| Cardinals | 26 | 19 | 0 | 43.2% |
| Cubs | 23 | 22 | 3.0 | 26.6% |
| Brewers | 22 | 23 | 4.0 | 43.4% |
| Reds | 20 | 24 | 5.5 | 11.5% |
| Pirates | 18 | 27 | 8.0 | 0.1% |
Geno back to #6. Probably right given those hitting behind him. I do hope he gets to a better place and soon.
How long can this continue? Love Geno, but come on. Whiffs again. Bases loaded. Bell-please bench him for about a week. Benched Votto for three games last year and he was not nearly this bad. Killing the team. Try anyone else for awhile. Production matters. Send that message!
Hopefully, the real but tentative progress from the last start is enough to build on for Castillo. But, overall I can’t remember when two Red’s players in the same year have fallen from the best in the league to the worst without obvious injury or any meaningful adjustment. Along with Castillo and Suarez, the beating from several recent ex-Reds taken from the Giants, I was made aware of another Red’s cast off that is doing quite well. Never would have guessed (Freddy Galvis). From the same lowly Baltimore team that took the guy we shouldn’t have let go (Iglesias) takes Galvis and turns him into a solid hitting SS (OPS+120 vs. mid 70s on the Reds).
There is still a lot of potential here because of the talent but is this more evidence of a systemic failure in the David Bell approach, management style, and tone which fails to unleash the potential of the team?
Winker seems to thrive in the lead off role. I wanted him to be a 3 hole hitter so he can drive in RBIs and protect hitters. Assuming the DH in 22, I think next year Shogo would be the ideal 9 hole hitter. High OBP guy low power, good speed. Maybe India or García in the 8. But definitely not slower players like A Catcher
TySteve seems to have good wheels for a catcher. But I also see him batting higher in the order given what he’s showing so far this year. Winker does seem to thrive at the top, though. You are spot on with that thought.
TS is fast for a catcher and his speed is considered normal at 26.8 Sprint Speed. The Lighter Suarez is at 27.0, that was a shock to see. The top 3 are Senzel 29.1, India 28.6, and Shogo 27.9. I also agree Stevenson has a powerful bat that needs to be in the middle of the order. The 3 aforementioned speedier guys don’t hit for power, and could be the table setters for Winker, Naquin, Stephenson, etc. Just a thought about how 22 could be different with the DH.
Thanks, MBS. That’s some good info to know for TySteve.
Mid-80s here in ‘Nati today, maybe Luis will thrive?
Then again, maybe not.
I think Castillo’s troubles are confidence-related, not weather.
He was mowing down Giants in last start, then got hit a little … not the same.
Sadly … takes very little to get him off his prime game, which we know is unhittable.
25 pitches … walks run in … so far.
Jesus! Stop with the walks! Make them earn their runs!
Walks! I just dont get it with our pitchers. Castillo throws 99 and tries to fool them.
OK, looks like the Reds are moving to the 2nd screen. Can’t watch Castillo throw anymore today.
Three (3) run deficit already! Two (2) runs the result of walks, both with 2 outs!
Now he’s just somebody I used to know…
This made me start hearing Gotye’s song in my head as an earworm.
Not sure if I should I should be writing Kudos or Dang it.
Reds are #2 in all of baseball in walks this season. Second to last in team ERA.
GABP is the clear no. 1 park in MLB for HRs in 2021.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
Give up walks, then the cheap HRs.
No bueno.
Walks are the number one no no. You’ve got to throw strikes and take your chances. Every Reds pitcher looks absolutely terrified to throw a strike, from the starters to the relievers. Except Antone.
>>> Every Reds pitcher looks absolutely terrified to throw a strike
I heard that!!! They either are afraid, or they just can’t throw strikes. Embarrassing! Pitchers that won’t throw strikes. And a regular hitter in the every day line-up that has no chance of ever putting a bat on a ball (Suarez). And a manager that has no problem with that. No chance to compete with that combination. Castillo is AWFUL!!! As is Suarez!!!!!!!! And Bell is the worst manager I’ve ever seen. It’s going to be a long season.
What a competitive disaster Castillo is; he has the competitive instincts of a snail.
Eight minutes into the game, and it is for all practical purposes over.
So is the Reds season if Castillo doesn’t “figure it out”!
>>>Eight minutes into the game, and it is for all practical purposes over.
That’s the case every single time he gets a start. The definition of insanity, according to Albert Einstein, is to do the same thing over and over and over and expect a different results.
JC is his own worst enemy! Two walks with 2 outs that turn into runs plus a 32 pitch 1st inning! Challenge the hitters please!
He keeps this up it’s the PGA or NASCAR the rest of the afternoon!
PGA for me, I’ll check in during commercials.
Game is probably over. Peralta and there pen will be hard to comeback on.
Brewers scored in the top of the first by drawing walks. By contrast, Castellanos tried to hit a home run on what would have been ball four, and Naquin took a weak swing at a 3-1 pitch against a guy who’s having trouble throwing strikes. That pretty well sums it up.
A very sad +100
Sadly, it’s a continued lack of plate discipline!
La Piedra dug himself two holes in the first. A high pitch count and 3-run deficit due in large part to his BB’s. His 2nd inning was a little more efficient, so he’s helped fill in that hole a bit. But our hitters against Peralta could make it pretty hard to fill in that other hole.
Nice bounce back inning by JC!
Let’s see if our catching tandem can produce some results today. Good to have both of them in the line-up.
Which Geno do we get today?
Yeah … we get THAT Geno
It’s like he can’t wait to get the at bat over with.
You were expecting someone else? The guy really needs some time off to get his head straight. It’s strategy/mental not physical that’s holding him back & has for more than a year. Since the season is rapidly getting away from the Reds, bench and help him tune up. If nothing else, when he comes back, maybe he can improve his trade value.
LDS – not really I wasn’t. And I agree it looks very much “mental” at this point.
Daytonnati – that describes what I watched pretty accurately.
Another K for Geno with RISP! Yikes!
Yikes indeed!
At least Schrock worked a count and made some contact. Too bad TySteve wasn’t on 3rd at the time.
Reds hitters not only lack plate discipline but they constantly fail to move runners up with productive outs like hitting behind the runners!
Yea, but at least we aren’t hearing about old school-new school all day. So there is that.
Very true. That got really old really quickly yesterday.
Well “new school” certainly isn’t delivering.
Reds, once again, are making an average pitcher look like Cy Young! They lose today they will be 5 games below 500!
One would think given the number of players underperforming their historical averages that someone would step to the plate and realize they have a management issue. And not just Bell. What the Reds are doing just isn’t working whether it’s fundamentals, plate discipline, analytics, pick it.
+5000
Well that’s enough for me. Life is to short to waste time.
Clete?
90% there
I know I sound like a stuck record but Walks Haunt!
Walk, then HR.
At GABP? Who would have thunk it?
Good grief.
All set up by our top-line pitcher who can’t find the plate today unless he’s grooving it. And it certainly isn’t the weather, is it?
I do believe I’m done. May check the score at some point, but we’re headed for a BP game at this point and, as noted above, we’re making Peralta look like a Cy Young candidate.
Perhaps a Sunday nap is calling. Definitely something else on the TV.
#metoo…time to walk the dog
Castillo is not a competitive big league pitcher right now. How many times do you run him out there to not even be given a chance to win before you do *something*
if this keeps up soon we can start wondering what we can get for Casti on the trade market
Nothing
I mean skip him a start or two to work on things, use an opener, send him down…just anything. You can’t keep running him out there every 5th day just holding your breath hoping that this is the day things are different
Sorry DH I was referring to Nick
I hope the trade possibility process for Castellanos is well underway. He is the key for the Reds rebuild of the rebuild. The truth emerges each day as two months of the season approaches.
Chad and Jason said Castillo’s last start was encouraging though and if he just pitched like he should the Reds would have such a great record.
Also, Reds have such a great starting rotation. Reds have given up the most runs per game in MLB
Reds lineup include Naquin, Farmer, 2 catchers, and a Schrock. Suarez has to play, but, there is not much there. 9 HR’s though
Shame regression seeing in Castillo.
No chance if we cannot pitch.
The Reds will now be 1-9 in Castillo’s starts. They will be 19-16 when he doesn’t. Castillo and Suarez are 80% of the problems with this team.
Quit playing them.
Pretty simple solution, right? Not to this management team!!
Maybe the question is whether the “Boddy method” is universally applicable or only in certain cases, e.g., Bauer. Or maybe it’s Johnson’s current approach. Regardless, Castillo has gone from possible Cy Young candidate in the future to nearly worthless. Reminds me of the coaching staff’s stunt last year with Senzel’s batting stance.
Winker for President! If not that then at least MVP! Too bad he’s on a team that’s going nowhere! Thank good for the Pie Rats!
How about “God” not “good”, darn auto correct?
Nothing new.We get down early.One hit in three innings.Pen game after 5 with our not so good B team.They give up a few more and lose 9-2.We get maybe 6 hits total and one leaves the park.Sound about right?
I like Stephenson’s approach. I would not even allow Zinter to be in the same room with him. Zinter will ruin him.
+1,000
I see Stephenson as a natural hitter who could mature similar to Winker. Please, keep Zinter away.
When the game is over before you bat in the first its says a lot about this team.Nobody expects us to be world beaters down 3 starters but when the best you can offer as a major league team is Suarez,Shrock and Farmer as hitters it can’t be any worse.It serves no purpose for any of these guys to play.Call up Garcia and play India every day with him and lets see what they can do.
Nats got Strasburg & Soto back. We’re back in St. Louis and that went so well last time. In Wrigley where we’re happy to get 1. At San Diego and they’re firing on all cylinders. They’ll be atleast 9-10 out by mid-June.
Rebuild the rebuild of the rebuild!!!
If you are going to rebuild, then it needs to be a full on fire sale and Reds must plan to be competitive post Votto in 2024. You can’t do a half rebuild like last time.
All in or all out. Pick one.
Your right.
Action is needed by the front office/ownership or it’s just playout the season for 2021.
Remarkable that the young guy can get 2 walks in a game but the vets like Suarez can’t
Just tuned back in to watch Stephenson’s at bat. He is a gamer to me. Grinds out at bats and has a good eye. He needs to play alot more.
Geno is so predictable with his swing. Everything is extreme pull.
How many does Suarez have to strand personally before the team admits it’s not working.
Where can we locate that number? He is at the bottom of era and the top of strike out percentage. He probably leads the league in runners l.o.b. I hate it that he’s struggling but I hate it worse that we’re a third of the way through and the hole keeps getting deeper. Bench him and coach him up.
Tyler Stephenson gives you a quality professional at bat. Reds need more hitters with plate discipline who aren’t uncomfortable getting into deep counts and fouling off pitches.
He has to play 6 days a week with votto out. Lost in the Suarez futility is the Farmer futility. Hes played every day for a month basically and has a .586 OPS.
I was just thinking I wish Suarez had the same approach as Stephenson.
Woke up, tuned in to see vases loaded. Watched Geno do his thing with a MASSIVE hole on the right side.
Tuned out. India would have put the ball in play.
At what point does Bell make any type of change with Suarez? I just don’t get how he can keep watching this and think he’s about to turn the corner.
Do you really think he will? Bell hasn’t shown a great deal of discernment in any of his moves. I’m still stunned that he benched Votto last year. Why he won’t do the same to Suarez is unfathomable. I guess Suarez is just a nice guy that needs to “work through it”.
No kiddn’. If you can bench the franchise player (Votto last season), you certainly can bench Suarez.
Doolittle…top of the heap
I hate this team
Bell made the call. It’s that L-L thing that he’s overly infatuated with. Hasn’t worked particularly well all season.
I don’t particularly disagree with the move. But Garrett has been performing better as of late, more than do little.
@Rex
Tell’em.
Nothing gives me more faith in the Reds being able to come from behind than Sean “Keeping It Close” Doolittle rolling out to the mound.
I feel the same…time to mow my yard
Me too.
With these Reds….the whole team of players, Reds management, and the Reds upper management…….they will be remembered as the saying goes, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and over again, and expecting different results!” Instead, the same results is happening day after day!”
Mowing
Suarez had a crushable pitch at 1-0 with based loaded and rolled over on it with a weak foul ball down the 3b line. Next pitch nasty change up for taken strike 2 followed by 95mph swinging K up in the zone
Suarez is missing hittable strikes, not fouling off the unhittable nasty strikes and swinging at too many unhittable balls out of the zone
My question would be is Suarez working with Zinter and putting in the extra work and using Reds resources/video/scouting/coaching to fix things.
Santillan should be called up for a start on Friday. He’s pitching today, so it would be on 4 days rest.
Management tried. I will give them that much! They tried Puig and they got Castellanos when I was sure the Cubs would want to resign him. They got Sonny in here and Bauer for a year. They overpaid Moose and I was never on board, but I can see their logic. They signed Shogo too. It just didn’t work. No small market team can survive complete collapses from key guys like Suarez and Castillo. This is not regression. This is worst starter/hitter in the NL bad. Senzel can’t stay healthy either.
Plan for 2023 with Greene and Lodolo in the rotation. Hope that Stephenson and India can actually provide some home grown production!
2021? Let it rip. Let Lorenzen play some CF and bat everyday. Let him start. The wasp Ohtani)))) Let Antone start. Let Garrett be an opener and change his roles in search of a fit. What difference does it make? They’re going nowhere. I think step 1 is to showcase Moose and give him away for anyone that will eat his contract (or most of it?) He’s really blocking guys at this point.
Same with Shogo. There isnt any room for him. Winker and Castellanos need to play every day. You then have Naquin and Senzel and Aquino. I dont think Shogo is any better than them 3. Naquin is on a 1 year contract and no way Castellanos would want to come back for 16 mil a year. He can make more than that easily. They might want to give Naquin a 2 year deal. I agree with Moose. There is no place for him. Try to give him away.
It’s not as bad as that. Fire Bell. Hire someone that doesn’t treat everyone as fungible.
5 under isn’t that bad considering all their shortcomings. They got 1 adjective hit today outside of Wink/Castellanos! Cmon? Fire Bell if you want, but a new manager isn’t changing anything with this roster.
You said fungible.
Good word.
+100
Lorenzen won’t be here next year most likely. And if he is I sure hope he isn’t playing CF.
Why not try him there? Or atleast as a starter and defensive replacement/pinch runner. They have nothing to lose at this point.
Well he would be the best defensive outfielder we have.
If the Reds give Naquin a 2 year deal, then they deserve to be bad
This is a poorly run organization, which as noted, cannot have younger players like Senzel, Suarez, and Castillo perform poorly
I agree with everything Indy said, except Lorenzen batting. They figured out he couldn’t hit when he wasn’t fed BP cookies.
Bell always goes to Dudley Do-Wrong in a game that is still winnable. Score was 5-2 at the time Doolittle carried the gas can to the mound!
Suarez is beyond bad at this point! Unwilling to change his swing and just put the ball in play, even to the right side. The RISP he has failed to advance is beyond belief!
Unfortunately he has little trade value at this time!
I hear the Cubs are looking to unload Kris Bryant!
Jose garcia didnt play last night and hes not starting today.
Is he hurt?
Or is he in Cincinnati now getting the call up to play SS every day and end the Suarez/Farmer 2021 experiment.
Off day tomorrow and road trip.
How long until Lodolo and Greene are called up? Put them in the rotation and move Castillo and Hoffman to the bullpen.
Also, I know the Reds are shorthanded, but why on earth hasn’t Bell given Suarez a couple days off? He has no problem sitting India.
Guess Feliz will be the next ex-Pirate the Reds release. Can’t believe Bell is not using Garrett or Antone in yet another game…
Bob Castellini should be utterly embarrassed at this dumpster fire. But no. He’s out riding around the other day in Redzilla like he has no care in the world.
Not one organization in MLB would call up Greene this season. You do realize he has hardly pitched at all as a pro right?
Noah Syndergaard had 150 ip at his age. Why not give him a shot at some point. Atleast they’ll both know where he’s at. Lodolo too
Greene has 33 K’s in four starts in AA with a .89 WHIP. He can’t do any worse than what they have now.
I agree. Let him get his innings @ the ML level. I guy who can throw strikes consistently over 100+ can hang with anyone.
I don’t know a lot about the young Thor, but did he have a tommy John surgury, and miss 2 seasons? Greene just walked 5 in his last outing. He’s got great stuff, but let him develop. It would be great if he made it to AAA by all star, but that would be fast.
Nick hits one to pad his stats. 2021, the season of Castellanos/Winker.
I’ll miss him. Winker will miss him more than any of us.
It’s just a shame we can’t find a way to win with two guys hitting the way they are. Something(s) need to change.
True, but our poor pitching was to blame also. Can’t have a starter giving up 5 in the first 3 innnings. Takes your team out of it from the get go.
Yep, poor pitching in the form of ill-timed walks! Brewers had 9 runs on 9 hits! Reds – 4 runs on 7 hits, 9 men LOB and 1 for 11 with RISP! Stats don’t lie!