Final R H E
Cleveland Indians (7-6) 3 10 2
Cincinnati Reds (8-5) 10 11 0
W: Hoffman (2-1) L: Allen (1-2)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Reds starter Jeff Hoffman was shaky through the first three innings, but escaped a big jam in the top of the third inning to keep the Reds deficit at 1-0. Indians starting pitcher Logan Allen retired the first seven batters of the game with ease. The door opened for the Reds when Kyle Farmer reached base on an error and Tyler Stephenson was hit by a pitch.

Jeff Hoffman was prepared to give himself up with a bunt, but Allen threw a wild pitch to move the runners to second and third. The Reds luck continued when Hoffman singled on a ball with an exit velocity of just 65.1 MPH.

The Reds luck got so wild on a Jesse Winker RBI single that it literally broke Twitter dot com. Winker’s single had an 82.8 EV and an expected batting average of just .070.

Nick Castellanos singled to give the Reds a 3-1 lead. That chased the Indians starting pitcher Logan Allen. They brought in Phil Maton, and he did not have a better fortune. Eugenio Suárez drove in two more runs with a double and some aggressive base running from Castellanos.

Joey Votto really put an exclamation point on the third inning when he hit a 2-run home run to give the Reds a 7-1 lead. It was Votto’s third home run in the past four games.

Jeff Hoffman settled in and pitched well with the lead. He got through six innings allowing just one run. Tyler Stephenson had a 2-RBI double with the bases loaded, and Nick Castellanos really poured it on with a solo home run to extend the Reds lead to 10-1. The bullpen mostly did their job, and the Reds finished off a 10-3 win.

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Amed Rosario‘s solo home run in the second inning, giving the Indians a 1-0 lead. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 10.6%% (from 52.4% to 41.8%). The biggest play in the Reds favor was Jesse Winker‘s RBI single the third inning, giving the Reds a 2-1 lead. That play increased the Reds win probability by 8.8%.


Joey Votto continued his monster week with a home run and double. Votto has 3 home runs and 5 RBI over the last four games.

Nick Castellanos hit his 5th home run of the season. That ties him with Tyler Naquin for the team lead.

Newly called up Max Schrock had a hit in his first career at-bat with the Reds.

Jeff Hoffman got the job done tonight for the Reds. He now has a sizzling 2.93 ERA on the season. Hoffman has certainly been a bit lucky, but he still has a 4.44 FIP on the season. I think most of us would gladly take that from him over a full season.

Carson Fulmer pitched another perfect inning. He now has a 1.04 ERA (8.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 8 K)


Cionel Pérez did pitch a scoreless inning, but he walked another batter. Perez has walked 6 batters in 5.1 innings this season.

The Reds seemingly great off-season pickup in the bullpen Cam Bedrosian continues to struggle. He gave up a homer tonight.

Not so random thoughts…………….

The Reds will remain at least in a tie for first place, but the Pittsburgh Pirates are currently leading the Brewers 4-1. If that score holds, the Reds will be alone in first place. The would have a full two game lead on the Cardinals and a three game lead on the Cubbies. If the Pirates hold on tonight, they will be 5-3 since they were swept by the Reds (they played the Cubs, Padres and Brewers).

Up Next:

Reds vs Indians
Saturday, 4:10 PM
TV: Bally Sports Ohio
Sonny Gray vs Triston McKenzie (4.70 ERA)

40 Responses

  1. CFD3000

    Missed the game but love the box score (except Bedrosian) and the outcome. Welcome home Reds!

  2. Sliotar

    Coors Field East effect strikes again.

    Reds are a very different team at home vs. on the road. In stats and in swagger.

    Indians opened door with some sloppiness, Reds kicked it in … quickly. Which can happen at GABP.

    Only possible downside from tonight … if this is a step towards Hoffman getting 25 starts this season … something has gone awry with the SP plans.

    Tomorrow might be more of same … McKenzie can give up the HRs.

    • Still a Red

      Awry=Lorenzen down for 60 days (or more)

    • RojoBenjy

      The homers were there I agree, but they were getting it done with singles and doubles and the HR was icing on the cake last night. A much different feel to the offense this year.

  3. GreatRedLegsFan

    I think that was last Bedrosian’s presentation in a while once Gray replaces him in the roster. Hoffman continues holding his spot in the starting rotation with tonight’s performance. Votto looks to be finding his stride back. Senzel not able to reach base is concerning, his speed makes a difference.

    • Tomn

      Senzel is slumping to start the season it seems. At least India had a hit last night. Those two must be productive for this team to really take off. Of course Akiyama isn’t that far from returning.

  4. Kevin Patrick

    What an interesting hodge podge of players the Reds field… I can’t decide if its a good thing to see Fulmer get at bats…lol. Senzel has cooled a bit but I’m not worried. I’m also glad to hear Bell say Moustakas will be in the lineup tomorrow. Hoffman and Votto are the stories of the day though… Seriously…the innings Hoffman has given have been huge for this team. He made it 6 tonight…that is very promising.

    • Greenfield Red

      Agree on Hoffman, but his WHIP will not support one run in six innings going forward. He got lucky in that regard tonight.

  5. MBS

    Fulmer gave up a hit, and Perez gave up a walk. Both should be in the mediocre category. A 123 inning is good, giving up a run is bad, but just a hit or a walk is in between leaning to the good side.

    That’s the kind of work Perez needs. He might not be ready for the high pressure situations. But if we can get a scoreless inning from him in a low to medium leverage situation, then that’s a value to the team. It’s the same reason Senzel and India are batting down the lineup, lower pressure. Let all these young players build up their confidence, because it’s all between the ears at this level.

  6. Greenfield Red

    I think commentators should be watching the same clips/games that I am when they make comments. If you watch Doug’s linked clip of Hoffman’s single the analyst criticizes Stephenson for not scoring. He said “there is no reason for Stephenson to not score on that ball”

    There is a reason that I can clearly see on the clip. The Reds third base coach is 3/4 of the way down the baseline and has both hands straight up in the air giving the stop sign. Stephenson would have been criticized by the same analyst had he run through the stop sign and be thrown out at the plate.

    Since I don’t have my Direct TV anymore, and I’m not familiar with the Reds broadcast team, I don’t know if those are our guys or not. Pretty dumb comment in my book.

    • Greenfield Red

      Nick’s clip… not Doug’s. Sorry Nick.

      • J

        That comment was made by Barry Larkin. I think he probably knows what he’s talking about. His point wasn’t that Stephenson should ignore the third base coach, it was that the third base coach was forced to stop him at third because Stephenson hesitated on his way to third, which he shouldn’t have done because he should have realized the ball wasn’t going to be caught.

      • Greenfield Red

        Stephenson hesitated because the runner in front of him hesitated. I understand the comment was made by Barry Larkin, and yes he knows more about base running than I do, and maybe he is trying too hard. If so, I hope he learns from something like that, because clearly he was wrong. If Stephenson ran through a stop sign and was thrown out, with no outs in the inning, Larkin and many on this site would been quite critical of him.

        And again, with no outs Stephenson has got to be sure that ball falls in before he gets too far from 2nd base. Stephenson did exactly the right thing on that play.

    • John Radabaugh

      It was the Reds crew. And it was Larkin making those comments about Stephenson needing to score on that hit. I agree, questionable comment. Stephenson DID immediately break on the batted ball….but the first thing he saw was the runner on third running BACK to the third base bag. Of course he is going to hesitate seeing that. And to your point, the third base coach was giving the hold sign fairly quickly. Which I notice he does quite often with 0 outs. Larkin is trying a little too hard at this point…but it is early…he’ll end up being a good color guy.

      • TR

        It usually takes sometime to become comfortable in a new job. The same thing will happen with Larkin and Sadak.

      • Greenfield Red

        Thanks John. I agree with every point in your comment.

    • Gregmlb24

      The comment was from Larkin (pretty sure he knows something about base running). The reason he made the comment was because he had zero secondary lead and therefore got a late jump. Watching in real time I thought he should’ve scored as well and very surprised he didn’t.

    • Chad Jones

      Dude, that was Barry Larkin, and he was 100% correct stop sign or no. It was terrible base running.

      • Indy Red Man

        Stephenson pausing and Castellanos going with no outs were both not ideal, but I’ll take Castellanos effort every day of the week.

      • Greenfield Red

        Why is there a 3rd base coach if you, as a runner with your back to the ball, are to ignore him?

  7. Mark Moore

    What a blast to watch. Extra special given the Brewer’s loss. Those are the kind of breaks we will need over the long haul.

    A quick look at the overall standings, and I know it’s WAY TOO EARLY, at least begin to show the NL West might vie to put 3 teams into the mix. We’ll see if those trends continue at all.

    But for tonight, we’re on a 6-game hot streak at GABP. And while you can call “Coors effect” remember we play 81 games at home and there are other band-box ballparks as well that we’ll visit.

    Anxious to see Sonny Gray tonight. Wondering if Cam Bedrosian signed his exit papers last evening.

  8. Tomn

    Sorry to be a bit negative cause I think the Reds TV team is good but they don’t shut up. Non-stop chatter. They are smart of course and Larkin is a HOF players in my mind. But they need to give the chatter a rest. I miss the Cowboy and Welsh btw.

    • jazzmanbbfan

      Larkin is also a HOF player in reality, so your mind is intact, lol.

  9. Tom Reeves

    Franky, there were a lot of good offensive plays but the one that sticks out for me was Farmer hustling down down to first on a routine ground ball to third that turned out to be an error.

    It wasn’t the most important play and it is what’s expected. But I also think it set a tone for the team and good stuff started happening after that.

    • RojoBenjy


      Can’t call that a Coors Field East phenomenon

  10. Still a Red

    Two low velocity singles start the 7 run rally (hoffman followed by Winker). Sure gives weight to luck having something to do with Reds low BIBP last year. Last year they didn’t fall for anyone…hopefully this year they do.

    • RojoBenjy

      I will point out though that the low velo singles were NOT hit directly at a defender, shift or no shift. Hoffman’s was lifted over the infield so that may be a weak argument there. But not Winker’s

      • CP

        That is kind of the point. The negative variance involved both hard and softly hit balls.

      • RojoBenjy

        The point for me is that when you consistently hit into the shift, it is not bad luck it is bad hitting.

        Joey Votto himself admits that good hitters put the ball where they want

        “ They have the unique ability to be able to “do anything they want at any time” when hitting a baseball. As Votto said in the interview “You ask these guys ‘hey will you one-hop the left center wall, hit that sign in the right center gap, hit a short line drive to the 2nd baseman… they can do anything they want at any time.”

        Watching India and Stevenson hit shows you—hit it where they ain’t. Larkin praised Stevenson last night for his 2 RBI single “he didn’t do too much with it.”

        That’s the point of why I think BABIP lies if all the hitters do is exactly what the defense wants them to do

      • Doug Gray

        No one can do that, I don’t care what Joey Votto says. If they could, good hitters would hit like .750 on balls in play instead of the .280-300 they’ve literally had on balls in play for 120 years.

        Now, if he is saying that about batting practice on 60 MPH straight fastballs he knows are coming? Yeah, the best hitters on the planet can do that. In games against the best pitchers in the world? Come on.

    • RojoBenjy

      Alright. But this year are we going to use BABIP to explain success the way it was used as an excuse last season? I think we should be consistent in our arguments.

      • Still a Red

        Agreed, going with the pitch is a ticket to success…that’s not the same as hitting it where they ain’t or being able to intentionly drop one behind the infield and in front of the outfield. Hitting into the shift definitely lowers the BIBP…that’s why they put the shift on. True too, a hard hit ball will still beat the shift…and the Reds apparently had a hi percentage of hard hit balls last year.

  11. JB WV

    On the defensive side. Winker and Castellanos look much improved. Castellanos actually looks like an above average right fielder, getting good jumps on the ball and showing a decent arm. Keep it up boys.

    • Tom Reeves

      Agreed. Winker is running a lot more aggressively on the base path and in the field. Castellanos seems so intensively focused on getting better and performing.

      While we all saw the base running hesitation by Stephenson, what stood out to me is that Stephenson’s hesitation was so against what we’re seeing at the team norm. This team is hustling and playing hard. There’s a lot of things players don’t control in baseball but the one thing they have 100% control over is hustle. And this team seems to have it.
      That’s a tribute to players, the front office who assembled this team, and David Bell and his coaching staff – there doesn’t seem to be much quit in this team. Man, THAT’S Cincinnati Baseball!

      • RojoBenjy

        I heard or read a comment that Winker worked a lot on running and speed in the off-season. Does anyone have a source to point me to learn more? He certainly has had some early positive returns

  12. Roger Garrett

    I like it Tom but its the same team as last year except the young guys.Senzel,India,Stephensen and Wink last night bring energy when they play.Granted Wink and Senzel have struggled to healthy but they do play and winning makes a difference.Reds may just be learning how to win but its always about hustle and desire.The best may lose 60 to 70 games every year but they play the game the same every day.Thats all I want this team to do.They may lose more then they win but they should always and I mean always and I mean everybody play hard and with emotion.

  13. Rod Andrews

    A hit is a hit no matter what speed it comes off the bat. Too much talk about velocity, angle, spin and so on and so on. I loved the game when the hitter’s stats were HRS,RBI, and BA. Actually, I love it better before Fox Sports and Dish Network broke their contract when I could actually watch the games!

    • RojoBenjy

      “Actually, I love it better before Fox Sports and Dish Network broke their contract when I could actually watch the games!“

      Doug, I nominate this for the ballot when we vote for post of the year lol