Almost all of last offseason the rumors were hot and heavy that the Cincinnati Reds and the Cleveland Indians had been discussing a trade that would have brought shortstop Francisco Lindor to Cincinnati. It was a trade that never happened. It didn’t happen with Cincinnati and it didn’t happen anywhere else, either. The asking price was through the roof, which wasn’t unexpected given just how good Lindor is.
This offseason is likely to be full of plenty more Francisco Lindor trade rumors. And the reasons are going to be the same as before: Cleveland doesn’t have any plans to sign him long term. Bradford William Davis of The New York Daily News asked Lindor last week if Cleveland should spend more money. After laughing, he did give an answer that sort of tip-toed the line between not throwing someone under the bus, but you also got the impression he wanted to say yes.
Lindor: “We don't have the highest payrolls. we will never have that. We won't have a team where there's… there's five to eight guys hitting 35-40 runs.”
– should the team spend more?
Lindor: “hahahahahaha. Should the team spend more? Hahaha.” pic.twitter.com/krUODocDJM— Bradford ("playoff b") William Davis (@_beewilly) October 1, 2020
While we don’t really know how to project what kind of contract Francisco Lindor will wind up with next offseason because of all that’s going on in the world and the uncertainty around finances, he’s going to get more money than anyone else on the market is going to, and probably by a decent chunk.
R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports looked at possible destinations for the Cleveland shortstop this offseason. Among the teams in the “makes the most sense” group is the Cincinnati Reds. Fans of the Reds would be thrilled to have Francisco Lindor, but as with every trade, the cost of acquisition matters.
That’s where the trade gets a bit outrageous. Anderson suggests that the Reds could offer Nick Senzel, Tyler Stephenson, Jose Garcia, AND Jonathan India for Francisco Lindor. Now, if that package were offered three seasons ago, it might make some sense. Offered today, when you probably have to pay Lindor $20+M and you only get him for one seasons? Well, as I said – it’s a bit outrageous.
There’s no question that landing a player the caliber of Francisco Lindor would work wonders for the team in 2021. He’s one of the best shortstops in baseball. But much like Cleveland, it’s just difficult to see Cincinnati signing him long term. And if that’s not going to be the case, trading that kind of package for him simply doesn’t add up.
No way. However due to injury concerns and his value going down all the time I’d offer Senzel IF we got a different manager such as Larkin who would be a motivator. I’d even offer Winker too as he basically has no value except when he gets hot at the plate from time to time with a decent OBP, and although not nearly as much as Senzel, he is injury prone too to some degree. This should only happen IF we have a chance at a World Series and that won’t happen IMO without a new manager no matter what players we have. Otherwise forget it. 🙂 I can’t see giving up Stephenson and Garcia for just one year of Lindor. It would have to be a much bigger trade….BLOCKBUSTER.
I’d certainly try to throw Winker in there as he’s a DH and hopefully we’re done with DH after 2020. Catcher Stephenson is untouchable as it’s been impossible to attract a top one to Cincy via free agency.
Stephenson, Winker, and maybe Senzel if they can reach a contract agreement with Lindor as part of the trade negotiations. If Senzel could stay healthy, he may be a keeper but his history suggests he can’t. Winker, you keep for one hot streak a year? Stephenson, will he ever see 2019 numbers again? Garcia, you keep, at least until you have a better gauge on the upside. But in all honesty, is Lindor a game changer or would a number of other less expensive individuals not move the team forward? And is the money there if Votto doesn’t retire and forego the last couple of years of his salary? (He won’t)
Stephenson, I’m thinking Bob not Tyler
Yeah. Me too. The suggestion was for Tyler I believe which is a deal breaker.
Dodgers got Verdugo, Jeter Downs, and Conner Wong for 1 year of Mookie Betts. Comparable seems to be Senzel, Garcia and some low level prospect. Difference with this trade was that it was obvious Dodgers were trading for him to sign him long term. I don’t think the Reds can so why bother making the trade.
I’d rather see them keep Bauer and roll with Garcia. Trading Senzel would be selling very low on him. Or, package Suarez (very desirable contract) with a prospect for a real center fielder.
I don’t get the Larkin for Manager talk. He hasn’t managed. No one knows if he would be good or not. No one knows if he would be a motivator or not. In my opinion, if Barry Larkin wants to be a major league Manager, he needs to do it in the minor leagues first. He hasn’t exactly been pushing for one of those jobs that I know of.
Contingent on a Lindor extension, I would start with Senzel, Garcia, Robert Stephenson, Aquino. EITHER Tyler Stephenson or Jonathan India could be subbed in there for any of the above. Of course, to do that we’d probably have to forget about re-signing Bauer. So, no Bauer. I dont think that would be the end of the world.
They’ll laugh you right off table as I would. In the real world, teams like the yanks, and dodgers give up top prospects for a guy like this. The reds top prospects are c rated in every other organization.
Uh what, assuming you can sign him before the trade (which is rare) then sure. For one year of lindor no one is giving up prospects of the quality of Stephenson, or young players like senzel. Maybe one but certainly not multiple. The reds actually have really strong legitimate top end prospects. Not sure why you think they are so bad.
Seriously. Negotiations for Lindor would have to start with Greene or Lodolo, if the Red actually want to compete with the other offers the Indians will field.
For 1 year?? No way.
For 1 year, I wouldnt offer more than BobSteve, Aquino, and MAYBE Senzel.
Tyler Stephenson a no no.
Need to bring up a catcher. Can’t seem to be able to trade or get any out of fa
“Anderson suggests that the Reds could offer Nick Senzel, Tyler Stephenson, Jose Garcia, AND Jonathan India for Francisco Lindor.”
To quote Lindor, “hahahahahaha“
Only if Cleveland does a sign and trade would that make any sense to anyone other than writers like this guys that think Cincinnati should just be the farm system for the favorite sons of the league.
Child please.
But—it gets some clicks
Lol. Man, the guys in here would be horrible GMs. Teams would laugh all day.
A bad GM would trade all four of those guys for Lindor.
I wouldn’t give any one of those guys for Lindor. That’s the Reds future you’re talkin about.
With our track record of poor talent Evaluation, Goodluck. Lol. Nobody would want those guys. Not for lindor. The big boyz will give up top ten of all of baseball talent for him.
Nkr,
Cleveland would take that, and laugh all the way to the bank.
If, Dick, even talked about that trade, I would fire him.
Way Way Way too much.
This team is more then one player away on offense.Most are past their prime and to trade away the younger players to get Lindor would be just awful.For me I would trade any position player over 30 to get him and play the young guys at short,catcher, and at second next year and never blink.Tyler,India and Garcia would play every day.Just tired of hearing like in the past that all of these guys and others are 2 or 3 years away.Just seems like you have to be 25 or 26 years old to even get a cup of coffee in the majors if you play for the Reds.Yeah the guys I mentioned may be overmatched at the plate at times but who on this team wasn’t in the 60 games we just played.
Roger Garrett——agree wholeheartedly! Garcia, India and Stephenson raked at the alternative site, especially India. Fairchild did as well before he was traded. That’s a strong up the middle core group with Senzel in cf. Moose or Suarez can spell votto at first if the dh goes away-that would allow reps for India at 2b and 3b. It’s time to infuse the club with youth, while still retaining the proven vets. Every other mlb club does it-not sure why the reds seem reluctant to do it.
Perhaps one of the reasons the Cards are always one ahead from rest of NL Central
Thanks Joseph.The Reds just don’t like the idea of learning on the job at the big league level.Now I get that if you are a winning organization but the Reds have losing records in what 17 out of last 20 so years.In the past the Reds were just satisfied with winning 70 games by playing vets instead of winning 65 by playing younger guys.That is an insane approach to any rebuild and that is why we are at where we are at today.The 3 guys we mentioned along with Senzel and Winker must play every day period.
Get rid of guys who take up precious roster space like janikowski
A much more even trade for one season of Lindor
(hard to believe he would negotiate an extension with Reds when he has waited this long to hit Free Agency) ….
Lindor for Winker, OF Mike Siani
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
Indians would probably want a lottery ticket or two type prospects thrown in, to make it look like a bigger haul.
Really bro? Lol. Yanks and dodgers got way more talent to give. All of baseball does. Dont pay attention to local media. Our talent is not good except for Greene.
I call BS on you.
We are middle of the pack, not near the bottom.
NIck L, look real good, and do Ty, and others.
Maybe you can troll another site.
Looking at this site ( by the way, is usually accurate).
Senzel is worth way more then Lindor(do to years left).
Indians get Senzel, Reds get Lindor and Naylor (that is fair), Indians say no way
I do think Jose Garcia could use another year in the minors to marinade offensively and thus the Reds should take a run at a Lindor trade. As a barometer, the Reds traded Trammell, Scott Moss, and Puig for ~1.5 seasons of Bauer. The pool of Reds’ players I would consider drawing from (pick 3) in constructing a trade for one season of Lindor: Barnhardt, Raisel Iglaseis, Aquino, Santillan, and India. This represents a mix of MLB players and/or controllable top prospects for the Indians to choose from.
Those look like bargain chips the Reds can do without. Bring Stephenson up to catch with Casali.
India us blocked by Suarez.
Aquino was a one month wonder last session.
Iglesias can be replaced by either Lorenzon or Bradley if he’s still with them
I like Winker, think the Reds have under-utliized his potential …
but, there is a window in 2021, even without Bauer, where Reds could (should) be division favorites.
After that, MLB CBA expires, Votto, Moustakas, Suarez will definitely be on the wrong side of 30 years old, and Sonny Gray is no spring chicken.
Could see the Reds getting Lindor, truly “going for it” … knowing that the next real contention year isn’t until after Votto’s contract is up.
Stop trading young players and pony up some dollars in your vault rich owners. Just sign Marcus Semien.
Wait one year, and sign Story.
On Marcus, is you willing to offer some good coinage, you might get him a bit of the less expensive side this year. And keep everyone.
Like the idea, JB.
I wouldn’t trade top prospects for one year of any player in MLB. Look at the Phillies. They gave up good prospects to Miami for 2 years of C JT Realmuto. The Phillies didn’t make the playoffs either year and now Realmuto is a free agent. The Marlins got a C and RHP Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto. The Marlins, led by Sanchez, made the playoffs while Philly did not. There are a lot examples around MLB just like this. The Phillies also spent big on free agents over the last 2 years and still didn’t make the post-season.
The Reds don’t want to become the Phillies. The Reds went through 5 years of rebuilding only to become an old, aging team one year out of the rebuild. It just doesn’t make any sense.
The Reds trade with the Dodgers before the 2019 season was a bad, bad, bad, bad trade for the Reds and has turned out great for the Dodgers. That trade, along with David Bell’s awful managing, set the team up for failure in 2019. Many people have said the trade made sense at the time, but it just didn’t work out. Hogwash. BS. The trade was bad from the start and got worse over time. The Reds traded for 3 guys all with one year left on their contracts and none of them panned out. Aside from the Kemp for Bailey salary swap, the Reds got 5 starts from a broken down starter, a very unimpressive OF that was traded at the deadline and was unemployed in 2020, and a Kemp that couldn’t hit and was released 4 weeks into the season. What did the Dodgers receive? Only 2 top-100 prospects in baseball.
The trade for Bauer I can’t complain about. The Reds got a pitcher that was up and down for 2 months in 2019 , but then pitched his best year ever in 2020, is a Cy Young Award candidate, and led/carried the team to its first playoff birth in 7 years.
Don’t become the Phillies.
The Reds were looking to dump Baileys salary and ended up picking up Kemps salary. And they gave up 2 prospects. They were better off just buying Bailey out. Stupid trade.
I would defend that trade a bit, due to the (at the time) expectation that we were also acquiring a SP#3 level LH starter which we were desperate for at the time. Injuries didn’t allow that to work, but they are unpredictable and by that reason alone is why I wouldn’t go “all in” for a one year player at the expense of this many cost controlled years, even only based on potential. Maybe if the trade included our hitting coach though, lol.
Yeah bauer pitches well every other year.
This would be a terrible trade. The Reds can not afford to trade for Lindor and sign Bauer. Go for Bauer.
Why would you trade 6 years of Garcia for 1 of Lindor?
Why would you trade 4 years of Senzel for 1 of Lindor?
but both of them and throw in India and Tyler Stephenson is beyond comprehension.
If Senzel can stay healthy I think he will be a stud.
I think Garcia will be an all-star.
Garcia would only be blocked for one year. When Lindor leaves after that one year–as he will–the Reds would need a shortstop.
I honestly wouldn’t have a problem trading Senzel. He has too much of an injury history for me. So much, you really can’t count on him starting anywhere.
After this year’s debacle, people sill haven’t realized that giving up young talent for one 6% chance to win the World Series just isn’t worth it. Even if the Reds got Lindor, it is unlikely they could get past teams like the Dodgers and Braves and that’s just in the National League.
Also, many of you do not understand surplus value in trades. They are only getting one cost controlled year in the trade. Getting Lindor to sign an extension just means that the Reds would be paying market value for Lindor which they could have done anyway next year without giving up any talent. Same theory applies to Bauer.
When are the Reds going to have better than 6% to win a World Series in any season?
No one, including the Dodgers, entered this year’s playoffs with as much as a 20% chance. There are usually other strong NL contenders in any given season as well.
The Royals emptied the farm system and spent high for them to go for it in 2014 and 2015 and won … once.
The Reds situation is a lot closer to the Royals than any true “sustainable success” like St. Louis.
2022 – No Castellanos (probably), Suarez age 31, Moustakas age 32, Gray age 33, Votto age 39.
Yikes.
The Dodgers had an 18% percent chance because of the extra round this year. In a normal year they probably would have had a 25-30% chance.
With all the moves that elevated the Reds into mediocrity, they are now going to be drafting in the late teens setting the rebuild back even further. Currently, the Reds have weak farm system with some 50FVs as their top prospects. Couple that with an aging team and things aren’t looking very bright for the Reds.
I’m actually surprised William hasn’t gotten much heat. The guy has been a disaster. If I am a GM trying to unload a vet with one year of control left, Williams/Krall is the first guy I call.
@citizen – The Reds have been drafting high for years. How has that worked out? So far it has produces only a few mediocre MLB’ers
I wish people would stop with the results oriented thinking. Yes the Reds have drafted poorly in the past. That still doesn’t mean that having a 15-20 draft pick is just as good as having a top 10 draft pick going forward.
And are you saying that the Reds should build a team through free agency and by trading the rest of what little young talent the Reds have for one 12% shot in a normal year at the World Series? The Reds just gave up three Top 100 prospects and spent a ton of money in free agency. As expected they still didn’t win the World Series and made themselves worse in the future. The Dodgers and Indians are happy though.
Yes and they’re weighed down by votto too.
Very rarely do teams win based just off FA talent or homegrown talent. I believe even the Yankees have some homegrown talent of their own.
The Cubs had homegrown talent. But, what I believe many considering their “missing piece” was getting Lester to sign back then.
I have no problem trading prospects, especially if the prospects are single A or rookie ballplayers. I mean, prospects exists for 2 reasons; fill gaps in the big club AND tradebait.
Like with Tyler Stephenson and us, I wouldn’t look to trade him. He’s a higher level prospect who will very possibly be able to step right into the starting role.
Lindor will cost too much. I would rather see them go for Marcus Semien or Didi Gregorius in free agency for no more than a 3 yr deal or trade for Carlos Correa who also only has 1 yr of arbitration left. Correa would probably require a lot less in trade.
i would like to see it but i imagine the reds will be a little snake bitten for making any major moves for this year. And i don’t blame them. even if there is limited attendance for next year it will still be difficult to fill those seats. i was at PBS yesterday. the announced attendance was at capacity but i estimated about 1000 were actually there.
i predict the roster will be the same minus Buaer. i do hope the extended playoffs are in place for next year. even without bauer i still think we can compete for a playoff spot.
If things are retuned to normal or semi normal the playoffs will most likely return to normal.
That was just incentive to have all the teams bust out big in the final month.
I think all teams are going to be a bit difficult to make any trades this year. For, I think teams are going to look at this season more as an “exception” and not even consider it, only considering all trade pieces another year older.
Only way is if he signs a new deal
Learn from horrible trade with Dodgers! Keep and develop top prospects and spend money in free agency.
Sign Gregorius instead. Would cost less per year and cost no prospects.
On a side note, just saw that Epstein’s contract with the Cubs is over after 2021. Wonder if the Reds would hire him to replace Dick/Nick if the Reds fail to make it past the NLDS next year.
I’m on board with Didi too! He hit .318 (.876 ops) vs righties and he could platoon with Garcia and mentor him. Shogo seemed to be turning the corner in September and Castellanos can be better if he stays? He had a .854 & .863 ops in the last 2 seasons, but I think he got in a rut with diving into the pitch as a Red. He stands way off the plate, but gets jammed all the time. That shouldn’t be happening so often!! If this team was average offensively then they could win the NL Central even without Bauer. Is average too much to ask?
We need to find a good hitting coach!!! How did Adam Duvall clean up his swing after he leaves? Why do guys like Castellanos hit worse as a Red? Its been going on for years!
Could it be the word is aim for the outfield seats at GABP?
@TR
That’s what I believe many see.
A package anything like this, only if we get an extension of Lindor.
I noticed a some pretty good FA 2nd basemen this year. I didn’t notice if any of them can play SS. If any of them can, I say we go after one of them (I didn’t see any good FA SS). Or, if we get notice that the DH is staying, move Votto to DH, move Moose to 1st, and get 2 of these 2nd basemen FA’s, again provided one can play SS.
It may make more sense to just sign Gregorius because the Reds are not going to sign Lindor long term.
If the Reds are going to look for a stopgap until they believe Garcia is truly ready on both sides of the ball, free agency certainly could be a good option. Not that Lindor doesn’t fit in about as good as it gets, but the cost of acquisition will be very high, and all of those pieces are gone when 2022 rolls around.
Didi will be 31 in February. I don’t know? I see all this scoring in the playoffs and the Reds can’t score if someone granted them 1st/3rd nobody out 3x a game.
No easy answers. They need to draft young hitters or find some hitters like they found Castillo. The Padres traded for Tatis Jr. Still can’t believe the White Sox dealt him, but they develop so much young talent. They also can turn a no-hit guy like Adam Engle into a serviceable hitter (.811 ops this year). Reds? None of the above.
I would trade atleast one of Lorenzen, Antone, or Mahle. They should be able to get a hitter for a live arm that could be a good back of the rotation starter.
Might want to assess Frankie’s BA with RISP last 2 years. He’s a great asset on any club, but he’s been awful in these high pressure/ prove your REAL value areas. Save your trades for the clutch players who can shine in short games series where it all matters!
The way I look at this is that Garcia is not ready and may not be until 2022-2023, and that the Reds need to upgrade their overall offense. So a 1 year rental of Lindor makes perfect sense. I assume we are talking a realistic expectation of 290 with 20+ HRs and a lot of speed, defense, and leadership. I would be in favor of this happening giving Garcia another year of development at AA/AAA. I don’t have a good feel for what it would take for this to happen. But I think something like Wink and Sims/Mahle would be tempting. Wink not because of any reason other than that I think we are too LH heavy and have slow team speed. In response to others, I would also be happy with Didi or Seager but I think they are a notch below Lindor.
That is funny, Zinter and Bell will figure out how to make Lindor a 210 hitter with 150+ Ks. What is this talk of a 290 hitter, that is not allowed on the Reds, one cannot have an average that high and be a Red.
That high of a batting average is against the analytically philosophy of performing the action that has the highest probability of the batter scoring a run on the next pitch.
Who cares if the runner on base scores, if the the batter does not score on the next pitch that Plate Appearance was an analytics failure.
This unforgettably is the reality of Reds (at a lot of other teams) baseball.
Yep. That’s why I said unless we get a different manager it doesn’t matter what players we have.
We’d be better off with a team full of rookies who haven’t had a chance to have this stupid philosophy ingrained in their heads yet.
No way the make any trade like this.
The dumber the trade is …. the more likely the Reds will do it.
Dick Williams runs this team because his uncles are part owners.
David Bell manages it because his dad is special advisor to Castellini.
Even the clubhouse guys are nepotism hires. Same with our recently fired TV play by play guy.
Anybody see a pattern here?
I think Jockettys kid is a scout for the Reds as well?
To get Lindor for 1 year, you are going to have to give up 2-3 young potentials. Something that makes the Indians want to accept you offer over others. Or you can choose not to dip your toe in this water. But I don’t think that advances the 2021 team to playoff levels. As a 1 year rental, he is the perfect fit. If I were the Indians, I would ask for 2+ of the following: Mahle, Sims, Senzel, Tyler, Winker, and Lodolo. It won’t be an easy swallow but we need to improve the offense in 2021. Didn’t we just give up our #6 and 7 prospects for a year of Goodwin and Bradley? Neither one of those guys are in the same stratosphere as Lindor imo.