Well, we made it. At the beginning of the season, there were a lot of skeptical people wondering if the entire season would be played or not. It was, with only a couple of teams having COVID outbreaks early in the season. I consider that a huge win, and hopefully the playoff “bubble” means these players get to play for a championship. Just look at all the players happily celebrating playoff berths and you’ll see it’s not just the fans that want sports to continue.
The Reds (30-29) and the Twins (36-23) meet this afternoon in the rubber match of the series finale and the last game of the regular season. First pitch will be at 3:10 p.m. ET. Watch or listen on Fox Sports Ohio and 700 WLW.
Starting Pitchers
| Name | IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K% | BB% |
| Sonny Gray | 50.2 | 3.73 | 2.94 | 3.02 | 1.22 | 31.8% | 10.3% |
| Rich Hill | 33.0 | 3.27 | 4.09 | 4.89 | 1.21 | 20.0% | 10.4% |
REDS
Sonny Gray returned from the injured list Tuesday to pitch five innings against the Brewers, in which he gave up one run on two hits while striking out eight. That one run he allowed was a home run to Tyrone Taylor in the fifth inning. Gray is having a solid season with an ERA of 3.73 and a FIP of 2.94. His BB% is a little higher than the previous season, but 10.3% is not a terrible percentage. Gray also hasn’t given up a lot of home runs in 2020, allowing only four in 50 innings.
Gray’s slider is still his bread-and-butter pitch, as the Whiff% on it is nearly 50 percent (47.1%). He’s also striking out more batters than last year, with a 31.8 K%, compared to 29.0% a season ago. Gray is one of the best at spinning his breaking pitches, with 2953 rpm for his curve ball and 2829 rpm for his slider. It’s probably one of the reasons he and Trevor Bauer get along so well.
TWINS
After electing to become a free agent last October, Rich Hill signed with the Twins in late December. Having been in the league since 2005 and with a career ERA of 3.80, Hill has been one of the more underrated pitchers in the league throughout his career. He’s continued that in 2020 with an ERA of 3.27. His FIP is a little higher, but still at a respectable 4.09. Hill has only pitched 33 innings thus far. He rarely goes more than five innings, and in fact, his last start against the Cubs was the longest of this season at 7.0 innings.
Hill is not a huge strikeout pitcher. He’s only struck 27 batters this season. He pitches to contact, but does not give up a lot of home runs. His HR/9 is only 0.82 and his HR/FB% is just 8.8%. However, his BB% is up significantly from years past. Normally it has been around seven percent (his career BB% is 7.9%), but this season it is 10.4%, with 14 walks in 33 innings. This could just be an example of small sample size, however.
Hill has six pitches, but very rarely ever throws more than two, at least in 2020. He has relied on his four seamer and his curve ball the most. He is a Bronson Arroyo type pitcher, with not high velocity, therefore having to rely on locating pitches to be effective.
Lineups
| REDS | TWINS |
| 1. Aristides Aquino (LF) 2. Nick Castellanos (RF) 3. Joey Votto (DH) 4. Eugenio Suarez (3B) 5. Mike Moustakas (1B) 6. Nick Senzel (CF) 7. Kyle Farmer (2B) 8. Jose Garcia (SS) 9. Curt Casali (C) |
1. Max Kepler (RF) 2. Luis Arraez (2B) 3. Nelson Cruz (DH) 4. Eddie Rosario (LF) 5. Jake Cave (CF) 6. Miguel Sano (1B) 7. Jorge Polanco (SS) 8. Marwin Gonzalez (3B) 9. Alex Avila (C) |
In very limited sample sizes, Eugenio Suarez is the only Reds hitter who has had any kind of success off Hill. He is hitting .600 against him with one home run.
Miguel Sano has two home runs in his career off Gray, and both Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson hit well over .300 against him.
News and Notes
The Padres helped the Reds and beat the Giants last night, so the Reds will not have to face the Dodgers in the first round.
After tonight's #SFGiants loss, the #Reds cannot finish lower than the No. 7 seed in the postseason. They will not play the #Dodgers in the Wild Card series.
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) September 27, 2020
However, trying to figure out the rest of the playoff scenarios is a mess and I gave up last night because I was too confused. Here’s a few people who got farther than I did.
There's always a caveat. What a stupid system they've got here.
I believe Bobby is correct.https://t.co/W7YwXg6HOD
— Joel Luckhaupt (@jluckhaupt) September 27, 2020
#Reds seeding scenarios today:
5th seed – Reds win, Marlins lose and Cardinals lose.
6th seed – Reds win, Marlins win and Cardinals lose.
7th seed – Cardinals win or Reds lose*.(*Reds could lose & be 6th seed if Cards miss playoffs.) https://t.co/AKITPlDA0a
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) September 27, 2020
Personally, I just want to see the Cardinals have to play in Detroit tomorrow. Aside from a Reds win, that’s what I’m rooting for today.
Final Thoughts
We’ve gotten so used to the final regular season game being the last game of the season, but not this year. After today, there will be more Reds baseball on Wednesday!