Welcome to potential clinchmas Day 1 for the Cincinnati Reds! If the Reds (29-28) beat the Minnesota Twins (35-22) at Target Field and get some help from other teams, they could find themselves in the playoffs as early as tonight. It’s a little bit of a stretch, but definitely not out of the question.
Here are the scenarios:
Soooo, ummm, yeahhh, big St. Louis and Tampa Bay fans tonight… pic.twitter.com/Bi6aVDFNnf
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 25, 2020
First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET. The game can be found on Fox Sports Ohio and 700 WLW. You can also watch the game live on YouTube tonight for free.
Tyler Mahle continues to improve each and every start. In his most recent start against the White Sox, he held that vaunted lineup of hitters to one run on four hits in 5.2 innings. He had a stretch in late August/early September where he gave up a number of home runs, but has not surrendered any since September 2nd. Limiting the home run ball will be a huge key to the game tonight, as the Twins are tied for second in the AL in home runs with 91 this season.
Mahle has started throwing his slider again. After not throwing it at all in 2019, he’s throwing it about 32.5% of the time in 2020, mostly to right handed batters. Twenty-four of his 56 strikeouts have come off the slider, and his Whiff% from it is 40.8%. Mahle’s spin rate on his four-seam fastball is also up from 2161 a year ago to 2391, good for the 74th percentile in the league.
If you’ve never heard of José Berríos, it’s probably because he pitches for the Twins and therefore is less known. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers over the last three years and one of the rising stars in baseball. His ERA and his FIP have both been under 4.00 every season since 2017. Berríos is coming off a brilliant start against the Cubs, in which he pitched six innings of four hit, shut out baseball while striking out four and walking one.
Although Berríos did a good job of limiting walks in his last start, he hasn’t pitched a game in 2020 where he hasn’t given up a walk. He’s walked more batters this season, with his BB% increasing from 6.1% in 2019 to 9.6% in 2020. However, Berríos does not give up a lot of home runs. He’s given up just six in 58.0 innings pitching in 2020 and gave up 26 in 200.1 innings pitched in 2019.
Berríos throws four pitches, a curve, four seamer, sinker and change up, but primarily relies on his four seamer and his curve. He utilizes his curve to right handed batters more and has a Whiff% of 35.2% with it. Meanwhile, he throws his change up to left-handed batters more. He has a Whiff% of 33.7% with that pitch.
The Reds are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. The Twins are in a race for first place in the AL Central. Both teams were off yesterday. Everyone is available out of both bullpens tonight.
|1. Shogo Akiyama (LF)
2. Nicholas Castellanos (RF)
3. Joey Votto (1B)
4. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
5. Mike Moustakas (2B)
6. Jesse Winker (DH)
7. Nick Senzel (CF)
8. Freddy Galvis (SS)
9. Tucker Barnhart (C)
|1. Max Kepler (RF)
2. Josh Donaldson (3B)
3. Nelson Cruz (DH)
4. Eddie Rosario (LF)
5. Byron Buxton (CF)
6. Miguel Sano (1B)
7. Jorge Polanco (SS)
8. Mitch Garver (C)
9. Marwin Gonzalez (2B)
Only two Twins batters in the lineup tonight have faced Mahle: Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario. Neither one has a hit off him in three at-bats.
Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas each have hit a home run off Berríos. Castellanos is hitting .385 off him in 13 at-bats.
News and Notes
There was some Reds news today:
The Cincinnati #Reds have released reliever Nate Jones. Shortly before that news broke, Thom Brennaman announced he was resigning from his job as Reds broadcaster (he has been suspended for the last 5 weeks)https://t.co/Kw7SDmMtiJ
— Redleg Nation (@redlegnation) September 25, 2020
The Reds have not sacrificed bunted once this season.
The fewest sac bunts by a team in a season before 2020 was 4, by the 2019 Angels. There are 4 teams that have zero sac bunts this year (Reds, Brewers, Yankees, Rays) https://t.co/HOTN5kfSP1
— Joel Luckhaupt (@jluckhaupt) September 25, 2020
Enjoy a little pre-game reading on Trevor Bauer’s Cy Young Award chances.
Will Trevor Bauer be the Cincinnati #Reds first Cy Young Award winner?https://t.co/JrZLy85IFg
— Redleg Nation (@redlegnation) September 25, 2020
And finally, the Reds will not get to face former Red Homer Bailey this weekend, as he was designated for assignment today.
#MNTwins Roster Moves: Twins select contract of Colina, Bailey designated for release or assignment. pic.twitter.com/ahRVDZz8Lz
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 25, 2020
Isn’t this fun? I love meaningful September baseball. And when the Reds play winning baseball, more people watch. At least for tonight, the Reds are in a “must-watch” tier, according to one of the best baseball Twitter accounts.
~ final series watchability tiers ~
keep an eye on:
nearly meaningless but involves a playoff team:
won’t watch a minute:
NYM/WAS (besides deGrom)
— Céspedes Family BBQ (@CespedesBBQ) September 25, 2020
Twins are 23 – 5 at home. Reds may need help.
Go Ashley… Go Red’s
Mahle is as good or better than Berrios. They will both pitch well.
This team has to find a way to score “RUNS” outside of HR—have to…They are not playing in GREAT AMERICAN for the rest of the season.
Yep. NO sac bunts at all this year? Hmm I don’t remember a hit and run. Maybe I missed it. The rules haven’t changed in baseball so the way to win hasn’t really changed. Just the thinking. Got to have balance.
It will get worse for our Red’s the deeper they go. That “BALLPARK” in Arlington is the anthesis of GAB. They have to find a way to score runs outside of a HR…..
For sure. Our odds of winning are very low if we don’t.
I wouldn’t go that far. Berrios had been far better in his career up to this year.
Berrios is a tough matchup for reds tonight. They definitely need more then 4 or 5 hits tonight. I would have my lefties at top of line up.
Buckle up folks … it’s gonna be a wild night!!
Win tonight and a few more things take care of themselves.
+500 for the secret intel Sliotar! Let’s hope we are in a swinging groove tonight!!
Brewers about to take the first one from the WLB’s. 3-0 in the 7th.
Scary huge cutout heads in the stands … YIKES!!!
Twins are 23-5 at home and the Reds have 80+% to make the playoffs? I’m not buying it. Phillies, Brewers, Giants, Marlins, Cards, and Reds and only 4 get in. We need atleast 1 and maybe 2 to get in.
What I don’t get is why the Twinkies get to play 31 at home …
And yes, we’re more in than out right now, but still more than a few dominoes to fall.
if the Reds win 1 more game they are in. If they win tonight they lock up 30 wins. Most Philly and Milwaukee (unless they score 8 in the 9th). Reds hold tiebreaker over both Milwaukee and Philly
Win tonight and they are in. Lose three straight and Philly and Milwaukee lose at least 1 game and they are in.
Lorenzen is up. That’s a good call in my book.
Well if Bauer & Disco leave then it might be Castillo, Gray, Mahle, Lorenzen, and Antone next year. I think Lorenzen might actually be a little better as a 4th-5th starter type.
Worked out of a MAJOR jam there … kind of thinking Mahle doesn’t have “it” tonight based on what we’re seeing.
Great job from Mahle. A lot of pitches though
I didn’t realize Mahle could throw that hard. Great comeback.
My audio is off … why is Donaldson out?
calf, i think
Anyone heard of Jose Garcia lately?
Yep … age 22 and never above High-A until his call up.
But, but, but, he hit a few spring training HR’s… how could that be?
Just read that Realmuto will be a FA again after the season, he’d be a perfect addition to Reds offense.
So will Gregorius and Ozuna.
Shout out to Steve Mancuso… Chris Welsh just gave a mention to Reds Content +…. former Redlegnation helmsman and his new site.
Seems a quick hook, but okay with it.
Yep, we need a playoff mindset for these games
Always nice when it works out.
The guy that replaced Donaldson gets the RBI double
Moose with yet another big hit.
It’s not how many you get, it’s when you get them
Yes. There is a guy we know we can count on in crunch time!
One of the few Reds with playoff experience comes up huge.
Thank God Moose hit that tailing away from Buxton. If he got over there and set himself he might have stolen that.
The ump? Second strike was clearly a ball, the next ball clearly a strike. Evens out, but way off.
Not trolling, I actually think he’s been pretty good. He did miss on Suarez, but it was close
Has he been consistent in calling the (far) outside strike and making the inner quarter of the plate a ball? I’ve mostly been listening on the radio and getting to glance at the tv.
If he misses it’s outside to RH hitters, but not bad
Too bad the one Suarez smoked was caught!
Yep. BABIP luck strikes again (this time on the negative side of the ledger).
It was smoked at that!
This ump really seems to be on the strike zone. Props.
OK, we got the lead. Let’s see how far we can ride Mikey Biceps tonight.
Giants won first game.
Rays up 6-4 on Phillies now in bottom of 8th.
I really wish Lorenzen would stop using his curve ball
I do, however love his changeup.
The Reds need more than 2 runs against the Twins. Hopefully Lorenzen can hold them here to 1 at the most. Strikeout would be good here.
Great Job Mikey!
Yes. Well done!
bug K for 2nd out in 4th. Get the 3rd one Mikey
yes, got out of 4th.
Phillies lose, Step 1 of 3 for Reds to Clinch a playoff spot tonight.
Cards up 5-0 in Game2 (this would be step 2)
Galvis with one add on run
Come on boys, let’s put a few more on here and get this W!
Thanks. Freddy heard you.
Last 19 runs scored by Reds are via HR… lol
Who was on the other thread talking about back end of the line up guys stepping up? Freddy volunteers.
Shogo with Doublem 3rd time up
Nick needs to drive Shogo in with a double to the gap. Nick needs to get a hit not a HR
Yes, Nick with a hit to put Reds up 3.
Of course, he did ruin the runs-scored-via-homerun streak. Gonna have to have a chat with Nick.
It’s a good thing we can hit home runs. I wouldn’t mind so much if we scored all our runs that way if we hit about five a game. 🙂
Come on Votto, drive Nick home.
Votto leaves it to Suarez to drive in Nick.
Hey. That run wasn’t a HR. 🙂
Welcome to the post-season!
Fingers crossed still 15 outs to go
Great inning to add on 2 runs.
Cards now up 7-0 in 5th inning in 7 inning game.
Reds Bullpen has to finish this game strong
Cards now up 9-0.
Reds have to finish this one off.
Through 5, 4 more, 12 more outs
Almost cannot believe the planets and stars are beginning to align tonight. It’s more than a little surreal. The cat just might get out of the box alive tonight after all.
Biceps for the 6th, the Bradley, Garret, Iglesias
I’d go for that. Plus you have Miley and Sims available just in case.
This is a completely different team than we saw earlier in the month. That murderous loss against the WLB’s really put the fire into everybody.
Agreed, Reds are 13-7 since that disastrous game and Gray start on Sept 1st. Hopefully #14 occurs in 4 more innings.
Day is talking about the #5 seed … I don’t think he feels the same as most of us on this forum. I still say let the WLB’s go to Slam Diego. I just don’t want to go to LA for 3.
Agreed, do not want to travel to California for the 3 game Wild Card series. Avoid both Dodgers and Padres.
Need help from Padres to win 2 of 3 they have left with Giants or Reds win 2 of 3 this weekend.
Problem there is the Pads are set at the #4 seed no matter what. Giants are playing for their lives for the most part.
My boy Lorenzen! His overall era of 4.09 is pretty spectacular when you go back to the first week.
Win this one and I think they’re in. Win 2 and they can avoid #8 and LA
Right? Quite the redemption tour for Lorenzen if this holds.
It certainly is, I remember how hard he was hit the first week. What a turn around for Mikey. Good for him.
+50,000 for Mikey’s about-face!
And Garver should be his last hitter.
Yes it is a turn around.
Lorenzen ERA in July 16.88 (5 runs 2.2 innings)
August and Sept 3.29 (10 runs 27.2 innings)
Glad Reds keep confidence in him. He has been a difference maker tonight and his last 2 starts
He’s telling Bell he could keep going after getting pulled and then clapping for Garrett on his way in. That’s good to see.
Nice recovery by Joey to get that out. Kind of handcuffed him for a bit.
Gets the K for the 2nd out. Running still at 2nd.
Must want the switch hitter to hit right handed vs Garrett.
If Joey fields that cleanly, it saves a run and a pitcher. It did hit him right in the glove…
OK, Mikey … just one more out. You’ve done your job for tonight picking up Mahle.
Mahle was not sharp but only gave up 1 run in the most stressful MLB situation he has been asked to Pitch. Getting out of the 1st was strong pitching. Do not have his best stuff today, but kept the Reds in the game as an opener.
Exactly and +500
Minimal damage and Mikey and the Bats picked him up.
Hopefully Mahle – and all the younger players – are learning a lot in this stretch.
Michael wants to stay in there! Big time performance for Mr. Lorenzen!
No no-no for DeLeon. But I’m pretty sure that lead will hold up.
Bravo, Biceps. Who secretly wants to see Bauer close it out 😉
Come on Amir……NO WALKS!
Stat from the booth … AG has retired 18 of 19 first batters.
But not that time.
Come on Garrett, that one is enough, get the next guy out.
Hitter hit a good pitch.
Welch and Day jinxed him…
The Marlins clinch a playoff berth. Who would have thought that would happen?
Given the “covid hole” they dug … nobody.
I’m friends with the Hispanic chaplain for the club (not doing much this season), so I keep my eye on them regardless.
I would love to know who is in charge of the complete tear down and rebuild of that baseball team. Seems like they did an awesome job! Just a couple seasons removed from moving Yelich, Stanton, etc., here they are qualifying for the post season already!
And those D-Yankees had the bases juiced with only 1 out in their half of the 10th.
Marlins are “in” …
As Jimmy Duggan would say “All right all right all right all right!!!”
9 more. A little add-on would be good. AG has to face at least one batter and then Sims looked like the next man up. That may change. We could see Iggy for a 1+ inning save?
My misunderstanding of the 3-batter rule.
Bradley next up for 8th. Iggy 9th
I’d like Sims to go back out….he was sharp.
Agree VA…. go one more for Sims, clinch, and then use the weekend to get everyone a little work
And thankfully, Lucas didn’t need any saving. Great inning.
6 outs to go
Only 10 pitches for Sims. Got to love that efficiency. Booth calling him a “Generic Bauer” … I’d take that as a compliment. He’s our #3 or #4 for 2021 and I’m fine with that, especially given the emergence of Mikey Biceps, Starting Pitcher.
Btw, Bell deserves big credit for seeing Mahle just wasn’t on it tonight, no matter what happens.
I’m no David Bell fan, but he saw it AND he did something about it tonight. Many of us have accused him of snoozing through the games with a pre-set plan. He stepped it up and did the right things tonight at the right times.
6 more outs and we see this through.
Changed it and CORRECTED it. As I posted, I’m not David Bell fan, but somehow he seems to be as engaged as the rest of the team. He gets credit for us getting “in” should we clinch it tonight.
Really thought that one was going to clear the wall. Just a little under it.
Cards one out away from beating the Brewers. That would be second part of what is needed for Reds to make the Playoffs.
The Cards beat the Brewers 9 to 1.
Sims still in for 8th
Got to figure both Bradley and Iggy will be warming up.
Hope they go straight to Iggy, if needed. Far better option.
Oh that’s ugly … I stopped breathing for a moment.
Good call by Bell. He was going to let Sims go a bit, but you have to know he’s really shaken up after that. The look on his face …
Sims/Buxton teammates on a Summer 2011 team. Also Olson (OAK) and Stewart (DET). https://teamgeorgiabaseball.com/morefpinfo.php?rid=76&page=rosters&catg=&titleid=
Huh. Might have gone Bradley here. But. Sure.
Iggy better. This is the highest leverage moment.
Iggy for a 2 inning save
Why did the FO go get Bradley. I thought just for this reason so Iggy did not have to go 2 innings
Please Iggy, lock it down for us Reds fans!
Is Bradley hurt?
Not reported but almost seems like it given how little he’s been out there doesn’t it?
Kershaw getting lit up by the Halos. 4 runs in 3.1 so far.
1st out in 8th
I’m actually paying attention to the Giants Padres game 2 … if we win and the Giants lose, we’ve got the #7 seed … unless my math and understanding of the tiebreakers is wrong.
cannot clinch #7 tonight Reds Magic number vs Giants was 3 going in to the night, needed giants to lose both
OK – I was thinking we still held the tie-breaker over them. If we win and they lose, 30-30 is the best either of us can do.
Friars now up 3-1 … still early, but it’s a 7-inning affair as well.
Ugh, Trouble, Trouble.
TALK GUYS!!! OUR PLAYOFF DEPENDS ON IT!!!
Yeah that played looked makeable by Shogo to me. Needs to take charge, but tough play regardless.
Wow. Weak pop up becomes a double.
And now’s the nerve wracking portion of the game…
Huge out #2
MEGA huge … YUUUUGE!
Nasty tailing fastball!
My wife is watching with me on the big screen … she keeps reacting 🙂
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!, 3rd out in 8th
Iggy got it done. Beautiful.
I only hope Eugenio looked at Shogo after that and said “good vibes only”.
Bradley for the ninth, not Iglesias on 25+ pitches. That’s why you got him.
To quote Mr. Miyagi … “Remember to breath. Very important to breath.”
Just one add-on run would be so very greatly appreciated pretty please …
Your wish is granted.
Offense get a run or two in the top of the 9th as this is nerve racking
Could use an extra run or two now, and then 3 outs. Do you believe in miracles?
Man I’ve aged alot this year with this team. Nothings easy with them.
They have to go with Bradley. He’s been a closer too!
Tested the defibrillator big time that inning.
13K by the boys tonite! Wow!
Yep. That’s a lot of $1K’s to the Community Fund this year courtesy of our pitching core. And talk about a turnaround with the bullpen.
This from MLB’s site regarding tie-breakers:
Key tiebreakers: St. Louis holds the tiebreaker with Cincinnati after winning the season series, 6-4. And the Reds hold the tiebreaker over the Brewers, winning that season series 6-4. The Reds also hold the tiebreaker over the Giants with a better intradivision record.
Unless I’m reading that incorrectly, we’ve still got a leg up on the Giants.
Oh, and THANK YOU MOOSE!!!
Yes but if Reds lose Sat and Sun, Giants win 2 of 3 left and the Giants have 31 wins, Reds 30 wins
Reds need another win or 2 Giants losses to guarantee at least a tie with Giants.
Right … that’s what I was saying. If the Giants lose their current game, they are 29-29 with 2 left. 30-30 is the best they can do. 30-30 is the worst we could do provided we hold on.
So a win here = the #7 seed overall. Just getting all that straight from MLB.com
Yes, Take advantage of the pitcher on his MLB debut. brought up when DFA Bailey
Moose adds on!
I’d still rather have Iggy for 9th
Not at 24 pitches. We might need him Sunday
Not now, up 4.
24 pitches is nothing.
We’re in with a win I think, but the object is to avoid LA and make the Cards play Monday
Would love to see cards get 5th seed and face San Diego and then the Dodgers.
Avoid LA and San Diego … let one of them take out the WLB’s. We’ll work through the Stupid Cubs and Bravos.
Cards will only play Monday if it makes a difference in whom makes the 8 playoff teams. If the 2 games cannot make a difference, seeding is based on win%
I did it … I’ll admit that much. I know I’m not alone, but I posted it … 🙂
Indians won tonight and White Sox lost. Both teams will be 1 game out of first. Thank God we won (hopefully) tonight because that division will come down to the end. Twins are trying to stay away from the Yankees. They will if they can win the division.
The good stuff. The rare stuff.
Senzel with the hustle, add on more runs. Take advantage of the mistakes
Winker/beard–I like it
Yes another add on. Make the bottom of the 9th a little easier to breath
And Freddy piles on the mistakes.
This is happening, friends … this is really happening!!!
Not sure your ‘mistake’ reference.
Piles on top of the mistakes by the Twinkies 🙂
6-2. Color me amazed.
Beautiful. Bauer off the hook for Sunday, can start a playoff game fresh. What a turnaround, baby!
Looks like this one didn’t age very well.
Agreed. This is a great night!
+10,000 for you Sliotar … we are family tonight
Well let’s credit Bell for going against popular opinion and sticking with Iglesias.
Who saw this coming a week ago? Anyone?
Hoping, but still not there a week ago. As I posted earlier, completely different team.
Yeah … he’s figuring out MLB pitching.
This is fun Nation ! Pour it on …..
SF down to 9 outs. If they lose then we’re basically up 2 with 2 to go since we have the tiebreaker on them
If it goes down that way, I do believe we’re #7 which means Atlanta or the Stupid Cubs on Wednesday … probably Atlanta.
Runs without home runs. Best team in baseball at home. So very disorienting.
Agree, you go with your horse, not Bradley. 24 pitches is nothing with the adrenaline they are running on now.
Not now though….up 5.
Day is saying LeCure will go stark raving nuts in the post-game show. For those who get to experience it, enjoy it for me.
I think we want Dodgers first in best of 3. We got to face them if they win anyways. Might as well go after them in short series with our best 3 starters
Nothing to see here. Just another Reds’ victory
Well, that and a VERY happy Debbie Downer earmbrister
I’m glad that Deb had a very happy night.
So nice to log on late and see that kind of score.
Damn, is that Reds’ October baseball that I smell?
I was seemingly moderated out of a response.
Hope you enjoyed the whole game!
If Geno catches one I don’t know what I’ll do
3 outs to go
Wade Miley for the 9th. Has he ever “pitched” in the 9th of a 7-2 game?? Probably not.
Very limited bullpen work for him to date in his career
OK, Wade … 3 quick outs please
My brothers and I have our shot glasses ready. Redlegnation post game playoff Zoom? Let’s do it
Ok seriously… is Bradley ok? Just a chance to keep spinning Miley?
I’m thinking the latter.
2 out down, 1 to go
Giants down to 6 more outs. Pads batting in the 5th and still up by 1
Reds Win, Reds Win
Reds in the Playoffs
Merry Clinchmas Reds Fans!
yeah, tried to do a clinching post, but the lurking Internal Server Error rejected me.
Glad to see some serious traffic with this, despite the inconvenience
The Little Red Machine rolls on!!!
10 of 12, 12 of 16 … and we are IN!!
The box is open, the cat is alive, all is right in RedlegNation.
Great to share this win with all of you, friends. We truly are family tonight.
The Reds have clinched a spot in the dance!!!
Alright! Getting back to the playoffs!
12-4 down the stretch. What a run.
The box is open, the cat is alive, the Reds will play ball next week!
We are family tonight. Great to share this moment with all of you my friends.
And that’ll take the edge off the weekend. Way to go Redlegs!
WOOOOOHOOOO!!! Exciting to be playing meaningful baseball in September/October again!
Playing their best ball at the right (just barely in the nick of) time!! Keep pouring it on!
Playing their best ball at the right (just barely in the nick of) time!! Keep pouring it on!
Playing their best ball at the right (just barely in the nick of) time!! Keep pouring it on!
So sweet! Go, Redlegs!!
Wow……who would have believed this through 46 games they were 20-26 with 14 to go. Looking dead in the water. Now they are in! Dangerous too!
YES, What a final 2 weeks of the season.
Everything worked just as needed the last 2 week.
The Reds are going to the postseason. The Pirates are not.
I love how much Jim Day loves this. What a good guy. Truly glad he got to take over.
He’s great to listen to from my PoV
Agree. Would like to see more of Lecure joining in. Him and Welsh so good together with Jim piping in .
Jim Day has a welcoming personality.
I’m actually watching the SF @ SD game … and it’s well past my bedtime 🙂