13 days ago, the Cincinnati Reds woke up with a 20-26 record and a 17.1% chance of reaching the postseason.
Tonight, the Reds beat the Minnesota Twins to reach the postseason. The Reds have won 10 of their last 12 games with their backs against the wall.
The Twins were 23-5 at home this season. They had their stud Jose Berrios on the mound tonight. Reds starter Tyler Mahle only lasted 2.1 innings. None of that mattered to this team, they’re on a mission.
Mike Moustakas has been a guy who got off to a really slow start and battled injuries. He hit two home runs on the night. Michael Lorenzen was a guy some wanted DFA’d after a miserable start to the season, but David Bell continued to believe in him. Lorenzen pitched 3.2 brilliant innings to stabilize the game for the Reds.
Soak this in Reds fans. It’s been a long road to get this point, but we are here. The Cincinnati Reds are going to play postseason baseball again, and they are hotter than any other team on the planet.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Twins (35-23) | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Cincinnati Reds (30-28) | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| W: Lorenzen (3-1) L: Berrios (5-4) S: Iglesias (9) | |||
| FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Biggest Play of the Game
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Mike Moustakas 2-run home run with 1 out in the 4th inning to give the Reds a 2-1 lead. That play increased the Reds probability of winning by 20.5% (from 38.6% to 59.1%).
Positives
Mike Moustakas hit his 7th and 8th home run of the year. He entered play today with a .900 OPS in September. The Moose is getting hot at the right time.
Freddy Galvis hit his 7th home run of the year. That is very impressive for a guy that was benched for Jose Garcia while the Reds were trying to find a spark from a season fading away. It looks like it will be a Galvis/Farmer platoon going into the postseason, which seems fine to me.
Michael Lorenzen was a guy wrote off by just about everyone. He might have been the Reds most important player down the stretch not named Trevor Bauer. He threw 3.1 brilliant innings tonight.
Raisel Iglesias just continues to dominate. He might have saved the game after Lucas Sims left the game early after a scary situation where he hit Buxton in the the head. Raisel is having the best season of his entire career. Imagine reading that after the first week of the season.
Negatives
There might be some typos tonight. Sorry, I did the best I could. My hands were shaking the entire night.
Not so random thoughts……….
How about some love for David Bell? Just about everyone wanted him fired. Bell’s optimism and positivity was driving everyone insane when the Reds were 20-26. That optimism and positivity likely helped keep a sinking ship afloat to have this incredible late season run. Just about every string that Bell pulled down the stretch passed with flying colors.
David Bell becomes the first Reds manager since Jack McKeon to lead the Reds to a .500 record in one of his first two season as skipper.
The Giants won the first game of their doubleheader, and they are losing 3-2 in the second game as I type this. The Reds would be 1.0 game up on the Giants for the #7 seed if that holds. Whoever finishes 7/8 is a big deal as the #8 plays the Dodgers. NL Central #2 is still in play for the Reds. There is certainly still things to play for, but the big hurdle has been passed.
Up Next:
Reds at Twins
Saturday, 7:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio / FS1
Luis Castillo (2.86 ERA/2.73 FIP) vs Michael Pineda (3.18 ERA/1.99 FIP)
Great night, Great 2 weeks of baseball to overcome the slow start.
What a night, what a great night.
Let’s Go Reds!!!!
I’m glad Votto has at least one more shot in the postseason.
I hope they can keep the #7 seed or division’s 2nd place, avoid Dodgers or Padres from the beginning.
There’s an argument for playing them sooner than later given the short series.
Who ever we get has better record, and is good.
Got to be them all.
Either way, we are in.
The only reason I might want to play the Dodgers first is because we know we will have our rotation set with our big three. There are no guarantees after that.
I just loved the shirts—RESPECT CINCINNATI, and the win
Assuming the Reds have a 50% a winning each series, they would have a 6% chance of winning the WS. It’s going to be up for grabs with the Dodgers currently the favorites at 18.8%.
Left for dead but still somehow rise to at least make the playoffs. Very fortunate. Amazing. Still haven’t come close to reaching our potential. Maybe now that they’ve had a smell, a taste of what can be it will bring out their best. We shall see. 🙂
haha. Didn’t mean to say that three times but I guess this site wants me to. LOL
Who woulda thunk it? Go Reds!!! Moose, Galvis, Lorenzen,… and all the rest. Great team win!!! Love seeing Miley pitch in relief like he has the last two times out. Reds are in the postseason. Now,..lets go!
I’m with Nick — you have to give David Bell tons of credit for sticking with players when many of us here couldn’t believe he would do it.
Congrats all! What a couple of weeks, huh? I would not pitch Bauer on Sunday, instead saving him for the opening playoff game Wednesday. But I do think Bell should do what he can, short of starting Bauer Sunday, to try to avoid the eight seed. I’m not buying the “would you rather play the Dodgers in a three-game series or a longer series” thinking. This team needs to continue to build momentum and confidence before facing the Dodgers. I like the Reds’ chances to play even-steven with any opponent other than LA right now.
Have fun tonight!
I agree. Momentum is very important. As I said this team hasn’t come close to reaching it’s potential but is reaching towards that now. We need to be at our best before we face the likes of the Dodgers.
This is really really great for the Reds. The only thing I don’t get with the seeding, is how the St Louie Cardinals can play 2 less games than the Reds, and possibly be a higher seed than the Reds. The Cardinals should be playing 60 games like everybody else….especially like the Reds, that are in the same division!
Agreed with Trevor.
Need the big 3 to go against LA/AD/ALT/CHI.
Along with giving David Bell credit, you have to give the front office credit. Their concept for building this team was with pitchers who miss bats and hitters who make launch angle and exit velocity a priority. While it has been maddening at times, it has worked to the extent of getting this team to .500 and into the playoffs.
The Trevor Bauer trade? If this team somehow wins it all, that will go down as one of the greatest trades of all time. Even if they don’t win it all, Bauer is the leader of this team, in my opinion, and he put them on his back Wednesday night in the big game against Milwaukee. In that trade the Reds surrendered Taylor Trammell, who has already been traded again; Yasiel Puig, who does not occupy one of the 1,800 available roster spots in baseball at the moment; and Scott Moss, a lefthander with some potential.
MIke Moustakas is getting hot at the perfect time, and he is clearly a team leader as well.
I like all the trades and signings that were made. The Bauer trade to me is a “no brainer” great trade. I like all the players. Just don’t like the hitting philosophy but hey we’re in the playoffs regardless. Now let’s see what we really can do.
Happy the Reds are in the playoffs again and hope they take advantage. But these two posts seem like a lot of smoke blowing, so let’s not get too crazy with the praise. The Reds are barely over .500 and getting into an extended playoffs that they otherwise wouldn’t be making. Bell has lost more games than he’s won with his decisions and the front office dumped a lot of years of cheap player control for one year of going for it. Which would have failed in a normal season. They played a bunch of guys that they’ve just given away during the season like Davidson, Jankowski, Colon, Strop, Ervin, Payton, Raley, Thornburg, etc.
Count me as one that doesn’t think the Bauer trade was a good one, despite his success. You forgot that Trammell was immediately traded for three players with control. He had a lot of value that the Reds could have used to build a more sustainable contender. Reds tripled down on the Moss trade by trading two more young LHs with potential during the season.
And not sure how one would consider their strategy for collecting guys with crazy launch angles a success when they are close to setting an all-time record low BA.
Let’s celebrate and be happy, but be realistic too.
Wow. Just enjoy it,
True they are barely getting in but in a typical season, they would have 100 games left and may have ended up 10-15 games over .500 and won the division. In a typical season shogo would have had a normal spring training so he would have more than likely been hitting like he is from day one instead of learning on the fly. I love this team and how they have stuck together when the fans were throwing in the towel.
Agree with most of what u wrote Tom except for the launch angle HR or bust philosophy. It is part of the reason why the Reds have nearly thirty years of futility with overrated players like Adam Dunn who hit HRs, walked a bunch and struck out even more. That leads to long periods of losing, and a deceptive run score differential where good pitching leaves the Reds scoreless for stretches and occasional lopsided meaningless runs scored against bad pitching.
This team was a slight favorite to win the division in 2020 and underperformed in general due to poor hitting. However…..Reds have landed on the dance floor and have a superior starting staff and relief pitching that has turned the corner.
With the bats Shogo has turned the corner, Galvis has supported in spurts, and a healthy Moose means experience and clutch hitting. Winker doesnt look the same since he was on fire and is pulling the ball far too much, Votto is hit or miss although walking and getting the ball out of thr park occasionally, same with Castellanos after a hot beginning of season. If Senzel, Aquino, Barnhart/Casali provide intermittent sparks and Reds can turn the corner, win the low scoring close games…..rings for the Reds.
Got 40-1 after they won the doubleheader….it was 100-1 prior to but unfortunately didnt make it to the sportsbook the day prior
The Bauer trade was good. But I think the Yankees trading for Babe Ruth will always be know as the best trade of all time.
In Reds history trading for Joe Morgan brought 2 world championships and a dynasty.
But I hope you are right. I hope Bauer has found a home here in Cincinnati.
This is really really great for the Reds. The only thing I don’t get with the seeding, is how the St Louie Cardinals can play 2 less games than the Reds, and possibly be a higher seed than the Reds. The Cardinals should be playing 60 games like everybody else….especially like the Reds, that are in the same division!
Yeah well it’s good for us so I’m happy with not going to California. Cards can have 2nd place in the division. 🙂
Nobody is going to California in NL, WS is in Arlington.
haha Okay. I don’t want to play California teams. 🙂
First round is at the home ballparks. Whichever seed faces LA or SD is going to California.
JayDubz, that’s incorrect. First series for NL teams is in Arlington or Houston. No NL team will play in a NL ballpark until the World Series.
Chris, that starts in the NLDS. First round is at the higher seeds’ home park. So Reds could end up going to LA or SD
Hanawi, that is incorrect. All of the playoffs are at the opposite “league” sites, per CBS Sportsline:
Here are the bubble locations for the expanded playoffs:
NLDS: Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas and Minute Maid Park in Houston
ALDS: Petco Park in San Diego and Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
NLCS: Globe Life Field
ALCS: Petco Park
World Series: Globe Life Field
Right. There is a round before the NLDS. 3 game series at the home park of the higher seed.
Hanawi, my bad. I stand corrected. I didn’t realize the Wild Card was played at the higher seed’s park. 🙂
They have the tiebreaker on the Reds because of head to head. If they have to play the last 2 at Detroit then they go there on Monday. If we go 1-1 and finish 31-29 and they win 2 from Milw to be 31-27 then they don’t need to play Monday. If they only need 1 win on Monday and win the first game then they finish 2nd and we finish 3rd
they only play the 2 in Det, if it means playoffs or not.
Will not play for seeded (per my understanding).
Hard road to follow, but nice to say that, for the first time in 7 years.
Also, it has been 30 long years, since the Reds last won it.
How about a nice anniversary present.
Colorado Red is right. They only go to Detroit if they have not clinched a playoff spot. If STL wins one or two games vs. Milwaukee they are in and don’t go to Detroit. If they lose both they go to Detroit and play 2 and need to win both games to make the Playoffs.
One additional option. If SF and Phil lose their final two games STL is in without having to go to Detroit.
Win PCT, and they hold the tie breaker with the Reds
If the Cards lose their next two games they will have to go to Detroit. They may need to go if they split. I personally prefer them to be the 5 seed so hope they sweep. If playing these two games could have an impact on who makes the playoffs the games will be played.
Please note the Reds are in 3rd place and have clinched a playoff spot. The Cards are in second place and have not clinched a playoff spot.
Let’s hope Suarez, Winker & Castellanos can also join the offense party. I think the key for the postseason, besides the good pitching they already have, is to Senzel getting on base. Having him and Akiyama at the top will score some runs.
If we finish as the #7 then wouldn’t we have to play Atlanta if they finish with the 2nd best record overall? I’d definitely rather play the Cubs or root for Milw/Detroit to ruin the Cards party so the Reds can get the 5 or 6 seed.
Yes, but the 5 seed plays SD.
I would still rather play the Cubs.
but I am not complaining, after how they look 13 days ago.
Nice to talk about who play, vs fire Bell, Fire Dick, etc
San Diego is not the same team they were two weeks ago. Tatis Jr has completely slowed down. Clevinger is out, and so is Hosmer. I would rather play the Cubs or the Padres. Problem with playing the Padres, is that you will be in the same bracket as the Dodgers. Braves are on fire now. There offense is probably the best there is, but their pitching is not so good.
Our magic number to avoid the #8 seed is 1. As in we need to 1 win out of our last 2, or the Giants to lose 1 of their last 2. Hopefully Castillo can lock that up tomorrow.
And essentially 4 games for that to happen. 2 us vs. Twinkies, 2 SF vs. SD. Frankly, I like those odds.
i hope Senzel and Aquino get plenty of playing time these last 2 games. if they can get hot this team can be very dangerous in the post season. i love having speed at the top and bottom of the order. a la the brm and 1990 reds.
Agree. they both need at bats, Just imagine them both getting hot. Wow.
Thought the day off might cool them down but it was just a pit stop to put a smack down on the Twinkies. Oh happy day!!! Is any team looking forward to seeing Bauer, Gray, and Castillo right now?
What a night! What a run! What a team to pull for in September!
Looking at how it all breaks down, our worst effort brings 30-30. The same goes for the Brewers, so they can’t top us due to the tie breaker. If they manhandle the WLB’s then they could sneak in by way of St. Loser blowing up and finishing below .500 in Detroit. Unlikely to say the least. We’ll know more on that later today.
SF can still finish with 31 wins if they win out the weekend. If they lose or we win, we claim at least the #7 seed which is fine by me as it avoids the Wednesday trip to LA for Round 1. That means we would play either the Braves in Atlanta. I’m fine with that.
We’d have to pull a #6 to face the Stupid Cubs who have a magic number of just 1 with today and tomorrow left to play in order to win the NLC over the WLB’s.
Speaking of the Dirty Birds and they Monday games due to shenanigans, MLB.com says “If either of those two additional postponed games, both against Detroit, end up needing to be made up to settle home-field advantage or who is in or out, they would be played on Monday. They will not be made up if the only thing left to settle is seeding that has no impact on home-field.” If I’m reading that correctly, they basically won’t be played since nobody will go to St. Louis this post season. So let them have the #5 seed and have to go through Slam Diego (actually playing there) and potentially the Dodgers in that bracket.
The Brewers basically hold their own post-season destiny in their hands. They have to keep winning and sprinkle in the hope that the finish with the same record (or better) as SF … which would mean SF went .500 (what we want anyway). That would make them #8 and the lowly NLC would send EVERYBODY except the Pirates.
How the Metros are hanging on without an “E” by their name is beyond odd, but they are. Talk about needing 3 or 4 perfect storms to make the post season.
if the Brewers win out St. Louis is going to play two games in Detroit. STL has not clinched a playoff spot. If they lose two to the Brewers and split vs. Detroit Milwaukee is in.
For Milwaukee to make the playoffs they need help. They need to win their next 2 and have Philadelphia lose a game. They could also make it if SF loses one of the final two games. They need some help but there are doors that could get them in.
In fact if they split, SF and Phil get swept in their final 2 games they are in.
Two (or three) days left and two spots up for grabs.
Exactly, Stock. And that missing “X” next to the WLB’s name really makes me smile.
I agree about facing the Dodgers. My hesitancy is having to play that short series in Chavez Ravine. I’d just rather avoid the long trip out there and playing in that park. Heading to Atlanta for Wednesday is more palatable to me.
But, hey, we’re in and no longer Schrödinger’s Reds! That’s really what matters most.
Respect Cincinnati!
Dodgers are the best team in baseball, hands down. Would not want to face them until the NL Championship, if I could help it. Also, Chavez Ravine will only host AL post season games. All NL post season games will be in Arlington or Houston.
Great night. Keep it going Redlegs!
I wonder what Milton is doing right now?
Somewhere, picking grass out of his oral appliances, wondering how we escaped his clutches.
Great call.
Lol. Funny you say that. I believe the same as you. I say bring them on! We have been fighting for our playoff lives while they are coasting to the end as a #1 seed. I feel good about Bauer, Gray and Castillo against those big bad Dodgers! Let’s get it!
The fact that Bell has stopped micro-managing and let the players play has really turned this around. Sticking w Lorenzen has proved crucial but I don’t recall many saying DFA him, just please stop using him in high leverage situations. The Iglesias turnaround is something to behold, he didn’t flinch when Shogo failed to make a pretty easy play, in fact he just tightened the belt and went to work.
This team is scary and if they could add two more hitters to the party they will be a crazy hard out in the playoffs. Pitching top to bottom may be the best in baseball right now; I cannot think of another staff I would rather have factoring in success and personality.
I think that was the actual turning point. Iglesias could have just folded, walked a guy or two and uh oh, but that did not happen. He came back strong and got out of the inning. What a superb job under pressure. GO REDS.
When I’m right, I’m right but when I’m wrong, I own up to it. David Bell deserves a ton of credit. Thought he was getting fired during Cards series. Minor tweaks made
major differences. Putting Shogo at leadoff and leaving him there paid dividends.
Moving Votto back to 3rd can’t be overlooked either. However, a healthy “Moose” was the key for me. Stabilizing the Bullpen was huge. The starters carried us but now the offense coming alive and a shut down “bully” have all jelled. Congrats.
You were not wrong. I still believe Bell was, and is the detriment to this team. You referenced putting Shogo at leadoff, and leaving him there. One can’t ignore that many were saying that for ages, and it took Bell forever to make that move. The idea that you would put Votto and Aquino at leadoff, and have Shogo deep down in the lineup was just foolish, but Bell clearly too forever to figure that out. And no, Votto still probably doesn’t belong in the 3rd spot in the order. Bell is not a good manager, and never has been. He manages strictly on numbers/sabermetrics, and seems to forget that the players are actually human and not computers/robots.
Let’s go!!!!!!!!!!!
6 or 7 see would probably be better than a 5.
Just imagine a hot Catellenos at the 2 spot of this lineup. Let’s hope and pray it happens.
Woo! Feels good to see the Reds back in the playoffs. Early in the night it, when the Brewers had won game one, when the Phillies had an early lead, when the Reds went down early and Mahle looked like he didn’t have it…I was a little antsy. Then the Reds got going and all the momentum came up Reds.
Kudos to the FO for putting this team together. Kudos for Bell and the team for keeping at it and not giving in.
I agree as well when it comes to facing the Dodgers! Name me one (1) team that wants to face Bauer, Castillo and Gray in a short series. Even ESPN analyst Chipper Jones said it!
I love the Reds top three too, but I think many in here are clearly not watching many Dodger games, or paying much attention to them. Their pitching staff is unbelievable, and their offense is equally as good. Twins and White Sox are not even in their league. Let’s let other teams play the Dodgers until we actually have to.
Reminds me a bit of the old days when he Boston Braves would come to Crosley with Spahn, Sain and Burdette and the saying was ‘pray for rain.’
The Reds battled hard and got in so lets see what happens.Enjoy it and ride it as long as we can ride it.We have the starters to compete but we know and the Reds know it will be can we hit good pitching.No time like now for three or four guys to get hot at the same time and well if they do look out.GO REDS.
A really exciting night! I’m thrilled that the Reds are in already and can line up Bauer, Castillo and Gray for the WC series, and it’s hard to imagine losing 2 with those aces on the hill. Let Antone start on Sunday, but otherwise keep playing hard. It can be tough to ease off the gas then turn it back on at the exact moment required.
Really pleased to see Iglesias pitching so well down this stretch but some of the nail biting could have been avoided if he hadn’t melted down two or three times early in the season. I’m still not sold on him as the only closer for 2021 and bringing the focus for every inning of every outing. The good news is there will be nothing but pressure from here on out. So I’ll tip my cap for now Raisel. Pennant race baseball is fun. Go Reds!
I think the key to getting the best from Iglesias is to use him, if possible, only when a save is on the line. Kudos to the FO for adding Bradley as a backup closer.
How about rooting to play in whichever ballpark is most home run friendly?
Just a thought. Super pumped!!
A good point to go with the Reds current offensive strength.
That’s none of them. The new Rangers ballpark has been the least home run friendly park in all of baseball this year, and that’s the location of the bubble. If we get the 5 seed, we get Petco for a bo3 (notorious pitchers park), and then Arlington for the rest of the playoffs. If the 6 or 7 seed, it would be either the Braves stadium (neutral) or Wrigley (depends on the day), followed by Minute Maid (leaned hitter’s park when the Astros were cheating, and has been an extreme pitchers park this year)
After the game last night, Votto said the reds are a nightmare.
He’s right.
What a win last night. You have to give credit to Bell for pulling all the right strings. Bell managed a great game last night.
-Pulled Mahle early after 2.1 innings. Mahle wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t sharp. Instead of hoping for some luck, he went right to Lorenzen. Lorenzen then pitched 3.1 crucial innings. He gave up one run, but it was an inherited runner.
-Pulled Sims after the HBP. Sims was likely rattled and may have pitched tentatively. Why wait for a meltdown.
-Bell has convinced Iggy to bring his best in the 8th. Iggy would have likely seen a two inning save last night.
-If he needed another arm in the 9th, Bell had Bradley ready to go.
The offense was great last night.
-Offense wasn’t all live or die by the HR last night.
-Castellanos and Akiyama both had big RBI singles.
-With the bases loaded and no one out in the 9th, Castellanos and Votto both put the ball in play. It didn’t work out, but that is crucial and something we’ve seen the Reds fail at this year.
-Offense overall is heating up. I don’t have the numbers, but I know they’re not hitting .210ish in September.
For playoffs
-These last two weeks of baseball have been the most exciting two weeks I can ever remember.
-2020 Reds feel a little like the 2007 Rockies who won 21 of 22 games to end the season and go all the way to the World Series.
-MLB.com ranked the Reds as the “scariest team” that a higher seed could face.
-You always want to avoid playing the best team. Braves in Atlanta vs. Dodgers in LA is a much better draw.
-Reds still have business to take care of to get the 7 seed.
What a night. I really enjoyed watching the team celebrate on the field afterwards. The joy on their faces was incredible to see.
When did this turn around start? I think back to a game Bauer was pitching. Votto had made a clumsy error and Goodwin had dropped an easy fly ball in CF. After an inning Bauer came off the mound fuming and yelling at his players “focus, focus”. He let everyone have it in the dugout, “we have got to focus, we’re professionals. Focus.”
That is when things turned the corner. Leadership just oozes from Bauer.
Trevor Bauer reminds me of Leo Durocher, Hall of Fame manager of the Brooklyn Dodgers and the NY Giants. The element in common is intensity. There was never much that Leo the Lip was not ready to argue about.
Now, how do they play?
Right now, we are the #7 seed. As far as I’m concerned, from what I can see, the #5 seed is very realistic. We have the same record as Miami and only percentage points behind the Cards.
I say we go after it one more game at least. For now that we are in, I’ve always believed in next goals. I say we go after a better seeding.
If we can pull the #5 seed, we get the Padres. If we can pull the #6 seed, we will probably get the Cubs.
Regardless of today’s Dodgers, those of us fans from the Big Red Machine era do not fear the Dodgers.
I am from that era, and this team is not the BRM, nor is the current team the team of Garvey, Lopes, Russel, and Cey; it’s much better.
-Glad I doubted this Team. Proved me and many other’s wrong.
-Surely do not mind taking a L on this one.
-Last 5 series showed me what this Team was all about..
-Grats reds Glad Votto gets another playoff chance.