The Cincinnati Reds took another series, this time from the Milwaukee Brewers, with a win on Wednesday night. Trevor Bauer was dominant and the Reds hitters crushed three home runs in a 6-1 win that pushed them to 29-28 on the season. What made things even better on the night was that most of the teams they are fighting for playoff spots with lost.
Obviously the Brewers lost to the Reds, which put Cincinnati in a good spot as the owner of the head-to-head tiebreaker against Milwaukee if the two teams wind up tied at the end of the season. The St. Louis Cardinals took a loss, falling 12-3 to the Kansas City Royals. That loss dropped them to 27-26, and into a tie with the Reds. They however hold the tiebreaker, keeping them as the #5 seed in the playoffs as things stand today. Miami also lost, with the Marlins falling to the Atlanta Braves 9-4. That loss moved them to 28-28, but they are a half-game up on the Phillies, who won to improve to 28-29. San Francisco also won, making them 28-27 – good enough to currently put the Giants into the playoffs as the #7 seed.
The Cincinnati Reds are currently residing in the final playoff spot as the #8 seed. They are in a virtual tie with the Cardinals for the division and one of the wild card spots, but they will have to finish ahead of St. Louis in order for the Reds to finish in front of them.
Here’s the current National League Standings for the playoffs:
There’s a lot going on when it comes to tiebreaker scenarios. MLB.com has those scenarios covered for you if you would really like to take a deep dive into it. With regards to the St. Louis Cardinals – they have a 5-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers that starts tonight and runs through Sunday. That will put them at 58 games played. If they need to play 59 or 60 games in order to qualify for the playoffs, or to be bumped out of the playoffs, they will play in Detroit on Monday (a double header if needed). If after 58 games those final two games only matter for seeding purposes, those games won’t be played and seeding will come down to winning percentage.
With all of that said, here’s the updated playoff odds according to Fangraphs, as well as what they were before the games on Wednesday were played and what the result of those games led to in terms of the playoff odds for each team.
|Team||Before Odds||After Odds||Change|
Cincinnati made the biggest gain of any of the teams that won. That’s not too surprising as their win also gave them a tiebreaker over another contending team. The loss for the Brewers also mean that among the teams that did lose, they saw the biggest drop. Philadelphia and San Francisco also saw big jumps in their chances – but for the Phillies they are still just on the wrong side of a coin flip overall. St. Louis still has strong odds to make the playoffs, but did drop down to 72.6% – the same as the Marlins.
The Cincinnati Reds are off on Thursday. The Philadelphia Phillies also have the day off. Everyone else is scheduled to play among the contending teams. Milwaukee heads to St. Louis – where the Reds will have some rooting interest, though for who may depend more so on how they perform in Minnesota than anything else. San Francisco will face off against Colorado, and the Marlins take on the Atlanta Braves. It will be a fun day of scoreboard watching, starting at 3:45pm ET when the Giants game is scheduled to begin.