On Tuesday night the Cincinnati Reds blew a big opportunity to really separate themselves from much of their playoff competition. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead against the Milwaukee Brewers the Reds couldn’t hold on and lost 3-2. When the day began, the Reds playoff odds were sitting at 76.9% according to Fangraphs with a 28-27 record. The loss didn’t help, obviously, but in terms of the odds, it didn’t harm them much, either.
The Philadelphia Phillies lost both ends of their double header with the Washington Nationals. And the Miami Marlins also lost. All of the other contenders, however, won. Let’s take a look at what the outcomes on Tuesday did for each of the contenders playoff odds:
|Team||Before Odds||After Odds||Change|
While the Reds odds didn’t dip nearly as much as the Phillies, the drop of 10.4% was big given that the Brewers, Cardinals, and Giants all gained at least 10% on top of that.
The Reds are still holding onto the #7 seed in the National League. That, however, is only due to tiebreaker scenarios over the Brewers and Giants, both of whom are also at .500 – but have played two fewer games than the Reds have. Those tiebreaker scenarios are actually looming large for the Reds tonight. A win would go a long way for Cincinnati given that the tiebreakers against Milwaukee will either be head-to-head records, or intradivisional records. A win is, in theory, worth more than just one win tonight.
With just one game remaining against Milwaukee, and then three games against the Minnesota Twins Friday through Sunday, Cincinnati doesn’t have much time remaining in the regular season. And they don’t have any room for letting winnable games get away from them, either. The Brewers and Cardinals have to play five games in four days from Thursday through Sunday – which will be helpful for Cincinnati because someone has to lose each of those games. The Cardinals may have to play two games on Monday in Detroit – but only if those games come into play as to who makes the playoffs. If those games only effect the seeding, then winning percentage will be used to determine seeds and the games won’t be played.
The San Francisco Giants will close out their season by playing the Rockies today and tomorrow, then playing four games in three days against the San Diego Padres. Miami finishes out their season with two more games against Atlanta, then they head to New York to play three games over the weekend against the Yankees. Philadelphia has one game remaining with the Nationals, then they head to Tampa Bay to face the Rays for three games over the weekend.
No team has an easy finish ahead of them. That includes Cincinnati. Currently the Reds have some tiebreaker help against the competition, but they are going to need to win to keep that going because as of now it’s not entirely in their control when it comes to all of the tiebreaker scenarios. Both the Cardinals or Brewers could sweep their series and the Reds could see the tiebreaker scenarios go against them.