On Tuesday night the Cincinnati Reds blew a big opportunity to really separate themselves from much of their playoff competition. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead against the Milwaukee Brewers the Reds couldn’t hold on and lost 3-2. When the day began, the Reds playoff odds were sitting at 76.9% according to Fangraphs with a 28-27 record. The loss didn’t help, obviously, but in terms of the odds, it didn’t harm them much, either.
The Philadelphia Phillies lost both ends of their double header with the Washington Nationals. And the Miami Marlins also lost. All of the other contenders, however, won. Let’s take a look at what the outcomes on Tuesday did for each of the contenders playoff odds:
| Team | Before Odds | After Odds | Change |
| Reds | 76.9% | 66.5% | -10.4% |
| Cardinals | 75.5% | 86.2% | 10.7% |
| Brewers | 51.7% | 68.3% | 16.6% |
| Marlins | 85.1% | 83.5% | -1.6% |
| Phillies | 66.8% | 33.3% | -33.5% |
| Giants | 36.1% | 51.6% | 15.5% |
While the Reds odds didn’t dip nearly as much as the Phillies, the drop of 10.4% was big given that the Brewers, Cardinals, and Giants all gained at least 10% on top of that.
The Reds are still holding onto the #7 seed in the National League. That, however, is only due to tiebreaker scenarios over the Brewers and Giants, both of whom are also at .500 – but have played two fewer games than the Reds have. Those tiebreaker scenarios are actually looming large for the Reds tonight. A win would go a long way for Cincinnati given that the tiebreakers against Milwaukee will either be head-to-head records, or intradivisional records. A win is, in theory, worth more than just one win tonight.
With just one game remaining against Milwaukee, and then three games against the Minnesota Twins Friday through Sunday, Cincinnati doesn’t have much time remaining in the regular season. And they don’t have any room for letting winnable games get away from them, either. The Brewers and Cardinals have to play five games in four days from Thursday through Sunday – which will be helpful for Cincinnati because someone has to lose each of those games. The Cardinals may have to play two games on Monday in Detroit – but only if those games come into play as to who makes the playoffs. If those games only effect the seeding, then winning percentage will be used to determine seeds and the games won’t be played.
The San Francisco Giants will close out their season by playing the Rockies today and tomorrow, then playing four games in three days against the San Diego Padres. Miami finishes out their season with two more games against Atlanta, then they head to New York to play three games over the weekend against the Yankees. Philadelphia has one game remaining with the Nationals, then they head to Tampa Bay to face the Rays for three games over the weekend.
No team has an easy finish ahead of them. That includes Cincinnati. Currently the Reds have some tiebreaker help against the competition, but they are going to need to win to keep that going because as of now it’s not entirely in their control when it comes to all of the tiebreaker scenarios. Both the Cardinals or Brewers could sweep their series and the Reds could see the tiebreaker scenarios go against them.
Playoff Odds by Site
ESPN 67%
FG 67%
BR not updated yet but they are usually the lowest.
538 72%
What are the odds that the Reds don’t have double digit strikeouts and leave guys standing on second and third while scoring less than 3 runs when their pitching throws a really nice game? These are the odds that really matter.
The fact that 11 of the final 15 outs were strikeouts last night is the problem. Put the ball in play!
I was 8 years old in 1975 when I became a Reds fan. It’s really hard sometimes…
I’m 1 year older then you and I was thinking about this last night. Dish isn’t carrying the Reds for some reason this year so I’ve only seen about 8 games, but I don’t remember 1 steal? Have they stole 10 as a team?
Morgan, Griffey, Concepcion, Dave Collins, Gary Redus, Larkin, Eric the Red, Reggie Sanders, and Billy. I’m sure I’m forgetting several guys, but my point is the Reds have always had running threats! I miss small ball.
I didn’t think the Reds had many SB’s either until I looked it up. Boy, was I surprised. The Reds lead the NL Central in SB’s with 26. STL has 17, MIL has 16, CHC has 16, and PIT has 15. Those 26 SB’s are also good for 13th in MLB.
Brewers have to climb over us and have 2 more games to do that than we play. Giants have to climb over both the Brewers and us and have 2 more games to do that than we play (same as Brewers).
We’re still Schrödinger’s Reds … a little more in than out right now. Makes tonight a HUGE game. Going to need all Trevor can muster and back him with some offense.
What are the odds JV is the DH tonight instead of playing 1B? Asking for a friend …
Mark, Enough already with the ” Schrödinger’s Reds “
Lol I love it though.
With our pitching, I don’t think there’s a playoff team out there that would prefer to face the Reds. On the other hand, teams are probably licking their chops knowing how often our hitters strike out and not hit situationally. The truth is probably somewhere in between.
IMO it’s still to early to scoreboard watch–too many teams bunched together. Just gotta take care of our own business. Maybe by saturday things will start to coalesce.
TONIGHT is the MUST win. Win tonight and all you need to do is win one against the Twins.
Let’s assume MArlins take the 2nd spot in East as it looks likely.
Winning tonight would mean Brewers have to go 4-1 in last 5 as Reds would hold tie breaker. If that’s happens Cardinals would at best have 29 wins and would have to play the two vs Tigers games.
Phillies would have to go 3-1 just to tie Reds and I think Reds win the tie breaker.
Giants May be in best spot with 6 to go. A 4-2 record likely puts them in
Exactly … SF is the epitome of #embracetheweird this year at this point. You do have to wonder what Slam Diego will to. In the end, their hitters will probably still play and maybe a lighter load for the SP’s to set things up. They’ve got the best #2 record and that won’t change.
current standings for #5 to #8
#5 Cards 27-25
#6 Marlins 28-27
#7 Reds 28-28
#8 Brewers 27-27
#9 Giants 27-27
#10 Phillies 27-29
Division Head to Head
Cards over Reds (6-4)
Reds over Brewers (5-4) tonight is huge
Brewers over Cards (3-2) 5 to play
Division records for WC tiebreakers & Div games left
Marlins (20-18) 2 Braves
Phillies (20-19) 1 Nats
Reds (20-19) 1 Brewers
Giants (16-18) 2 Rockies, 4 Padres
Brewers (17-17) 1 Reds, 5 Cards
Last 20 intradivsion games of season (2nd tiebreaker) record
Marlins (11-7) 2 vs Braves
Phillies (7-12) 1 vs Nats play
Reds (11-8) 1 vs Brewers
Giants (7-7) 2 Rockies, 4 Padres
Reds win tonight vs Brewers and Reds have head to head tie breaker over Brewers and the tie breaker over the Phillies no matter what the Philles do.
Reds win all 4 games and Reds control their own destiny to the #7, WC #1 position. Mmostly, Giants could win out and take #7 from them.
Reds win tonight and 1-2 vs Twins and many teams can still get to 31 wins and have the Reds be #9 in the NL with only 30 wins.
Win tonight and 2-1 vs Twins and Reds with 31 wins and tiebreakers against Brewers and Phillies (probably giants) and the playoffs odds dramatically increase for the Reds.
31 wins should be solid, 30 will still be marginal