The Cincinnati Reds (20-26) will look to bounce back after a loss last night to the St. Louis Cardinals (20-19) as the two play this afternoon at 2:15pm ET to see who gets the series victory. Tyler Mahle will take the mound with the hopes that he can help his team turn things around.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Reds
|
St. Louis Cardinals
|
| Shogo Akiyama – LF | Kolten Wong – 2B |
| Nick Castellanos – RF | Paul DeJong – SS |
| Joey Votto – DH | Paul Goldschmidt – 1B |
| Eugenio Suárez – 3B | Brad Miller – DH |
| Mike Moustakas – 1B | Rangel Ravelo – RF |
| Tyler Stephenson – C | Yadier Molina – C |
| Brian Goodwin – CF | Matt Carpenter – 3B |
| Freddy Galvis – 2B | Austin Dean – LF |
| Jose Garcia – SS | Harrison Bader – CF |
| Tyler Mahle – SP | Carlos Martínez – SP |
Mike Moustakas is back in the lineup today after missing a few games after being hit in the foot by a pitch. Jesse Winker is still out of the lineup after dealing with some back tightness. We’ve also got a Tyler-to-Tyler duo on the mound and behind the plate.
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB% | K% |
| Tyler Mahle | 37.0 | 3.89 | 1.00 | 8.7% | 30.0% |
| Carlos Martínez | 7.1 | 12.27 | 2.18 | 5.1% | 12.8% |
| Links: Tyler Mahle’s Stats | Carlos Martínez’s Stats |
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Tyler Mahle
The 2020 season has gone quite well for Tyler Mahle, even though his record is just 1-2. He’s got a career high strikeout rate, a career low ERA. His home run rate is down this season, as is his BABIP (.217 on the year) – while his ground ball rate is among the lowest in the league at 29.2%. Small sample size alerts apply everywhere here, but it’s been an interesting set of circumstances playing out thus far for the Reds right-handed starting pitcher.
2020 Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 70 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7.1% | 31.4% | .238 | .300 | .476 |
| LHH | 80 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10.0% | 28.8% | .130 | .238 | .304 |
Right-handed hitters are having more success against Tyler Mahle than left-handed hitters. That’s due, by-and-large to the difference in BABP. Lefty BABIP against Mahle this year i just .136. Righty BABIP is at a more normal .308 against Mahle this year.
Pitch Usage in 2020
| 4-Seam | Cutter | Curve | Slider | Splitter | |
| Velo | 94.2 | 87.2 | 80.5 | 85.6 | 87.8 |
| Usage | 54% | 26% | 1% | 7% | 12% |
Carlos Martínez
Today will be just the third start of the year for Carlos Martínez, who missed all of August and the first week of September after battling COVID-19.
Splits
With only two starts this season, splits aren’t very valuable. And given the information below about his velocity being down rather significantly so far this season, I’m not sure how valuable his past splits are, either, as he’s a different pitcher right now than he’s ever been before. That said, lefties have a career .752 OPS against him, while righties have a career .601 OPS against him.
Pitch Usage in 2020
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Curve | Slider | Change | |
| Velo | 93.9 | 92.0 | 78.2 | 82.5 | 85.5 |
| Usage | 31% | 20% | 2% | 30% | 19% |
He’s only made two starts, but Carlos Martínez is not showing the same velocity he’s shown in the past. His fastball velocity is down 3 MPH from where he was at in 2019. He is starting now, and wasn’t starting in 2019 – but he’d started a lot from 2015-2018 and his velocity was on par or better than it was in 2019, too.
When and Where
- Game time: 2:15pm ET
- Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
- Watch: Fox Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 78°, mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain
NL Central Standings
| Team | Wins | Losses | GB |
| Cubs | 27 | 20 | – |
| Cardinals | 20 | 19 | 3.0 |
| Brewers | 20 | 23 | 5.0 |
| Reds | 20 | 26 | 6.5 |
| Pirates | 14 | 29 | 11.0 |
News and Notes
Sonny Gray has been placed on the 10-day injured list
Less than an hour before the start of the game today the Cincinnati Reds placed Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list with a back strain and called up Sal Romano to take his spot on the 28-man roster.
When it rains, it pours.
Jesse Winker may be available to pinch hit today
David Bell noted that Jesse Winker's still day-to-day, but could possibly be available to pinch hit today and possibly back in the lineup tomorrow.
— Doug Gray (@dougdirt24) September 13, 2020
Records in Futility
Most games with 5 or fewer hits in Reds' first 60 games of season:
2020 – 19*
2019 – 18
1973 – 17
1941 – 17* – The 2020 Reds have played 46 games.
— Joel Luckhaupt (@jluckhaupt) September 13, 2020
Nick Senzel could return as early as tomorrow
David Bell said there's a chance Nick Senzel could rejoin the #Reds for one of the games in tomorrow's doubleheader.
— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) September 13, 2020
Updated Playoff Odds
Time is running out for the Cincinnati Reds and their playoff odds are reflecting that. With 14 games remaining this season, Fangraphs has their playoff odds sitting at just 17.2% and a projected final record of 28-32. Baseball Reference has their playoff odds down to 11.2%.