The Cincinnati Reds (20-26) will look to bounce back after a loss last night to the St. Louis Cardinals (20-19) as the two play this afternoon at 2:15pm ET to see who gets the series victory. Tyler Mahle will take the mound with the hopes that he can help his team turn things around.

Starting Lineups

Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals

Shogo Akiyama – LF Kolten Wong – 2B
Nick Castellanos – RF Paul DeJong – SS
Joey Votto – DH Paul Goldschmidt – 1B
Eugenio Suárez – 3B Brad Miller – DH
Mike Moustakas – 1B Rangel Ravelo – RF
Tyler Stephenson – C Yadier Molina – C
Brian Goodwin – CF Matt Carpenter – 3B
Freddy Galvis – 2B Austin Dean – LF
Jose Garcia – SS Harrison Bader – CF
Tyler Mahle – SP Carlos Martínez – SP

Mike Moustakas is back in the lineup today after missing a few games after being hit in the foot by a pitch. Jesse Winker is still out of the lineup after dealing with some back tightness. We’ve also got a Tyler-to-Tyler duo on the mound and behind the plate.

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP BB% K%
Tyler Mahle 37.0 3.89 1.00 8.7% 30.0%
Carlos Martínez 7.1 12.27 2.18 5.1% 12.8%
Links: Tyler Mahle’s Stats | Carlos Martínez’s Stats

Tyler Mahle

The 2020 season has gone quite well for Tyler Mahle, even though his record is just 1-2. He’s got a career high strikeout rate, a career low ERA. His home run rate is down this season, as is his BABIP (.217 on the year) – while his ground ball rate is among the lowest in the league at 29.2%. Small sample size alerts apply everywhere here, but it’s been an interesting set of circumstances playing out thus far for the Reds right-handed starting pitcher.

2020 Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
RHH 70 15 2 2 3 7.1% 31.4% .238 .300 .476
LHH 80 9 1 1 3 10.0% 28.8% .130 .238 .304

Right-handed hitters are having more success against Tyler Mahle than left-handed hitters.  That’s due, by-and-large to the difference in BABP. Lefty BABIP against Mahle this year i just .136. Righty BABIP is at a more normal .308 against Mahle this year.

Pitch Usage in 2020

4-Seam Cutter Curve Slider Splitter
Velo 94.2 87.2 80.5 85.6 87.8
Usage 54% 26% 1% 7% 12%

Carlos Martínez

Today will be just the third start of the year for Carlos Martínez, who missed all of August and the first week of September after battling COVID-19.

Splits

With only two starts this season, splits aren’t very valuable. And given the information below about his velocity being down rather significantly so far this season, I’m not sure how valuable his past splits are, either, as he’s a different pitcher right now than he’s ever been before. That said, lefties have a career .752 OPS against him, while righties have a career .601 OPS against him.

Pitch Usage in 2020

4-Seam 2-Seam Curve Slider Change
Velo 93.9 92.0 78.2 82.5 85.5
Usage 31% 20% 2% 30% 19%

He’s only made two starts, but Carlos Martínez is not showing the same velocity he’s shown in the past. His fastball velocity is down 3 MPH from where he was at in 2019. He is starting now, and wasn’t starting in 2019 – but he’d started a lot from 2015-2018 and his velocity was on par or better than it was in 2019, too.

When and Where

  • Game time: 2:15pm ET
  • Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
  • Watch: Fox Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
  • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
  • Forecast: 78°, mostly sunny, 0% chance of rain

NL Central Standings

Team Wins Losses GB
Cubs 27 20
Cardinals 20 19 3.0
Brewers 20 23 5.0
Reds 20 26 6.5
Pirates 14 29 11.0

News and Notes

Sonny Gray has been placed on the 10-day injured list

Less than an hour before the start of the game today the Cincinnati Reds placed Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list with a back strain and called up Sal Romano to take his spot on the 28-man roster.

When it rains, it pours.

Jesse Winker may be available to pinch hit today

Records in Futility

Nick Senzel could return as early as tomorrow

Updated Playoff Odds

Time is running out for the Cincinnati Reds and their playoff odds are reflecting that. With 14 games remaining this season, Fangraphs has their playoff odds sitting at just 17.2% and a projected final record of 28-32. Baseball Reference has their playoff odds down to 11.2%.

47 Responses

  1. Jon

    Out of curiosity, what did/does Reds management see in Goodwin? When the trade was made, I thought he was at best a fourth outfielder. Yet he keeps starting day after day. The Reds just got rid of Ervin. Why get rid of Ervin, then give up prospects to get a nearly identical type of player? Why not at least give Goodwin a day off and start Lorenzen? Can’t yield any worse results…

    • Hanawi

      They probably would have been better off bringing up Fairchild to play CF, who they traded in the Bradley deal. Would have been better defense and can’t be worse than what Goodwin has given them offensively.

    • DataDumpster

      Don’t understand the Goodwin thing either. Do we really need another outfielder? Doubtful, but why not give Lorenzen a chance? His pitching hasn’t done so well but he was pretty effective in “field” work last year. Oh, what about this pitcher Bradley that we got and don’t use? Maybe he could get some of Lorenzen’s chances.

  2. Old-school

    Reds play 5 games in next 4 days.
    Really need to go 4-1 to save fan interest.
    NFL starts today. NBA playoffs with Lebron James front and center.
    SEC football starting up.

    Reds risking historic apathy.

    Go Reds.

  3. Don

    Reds Offensive Stats.
    6.39 Hits per game (30th)
    3.9 walks per game (9th)
    3.76 runs per game (29th)

    Team batting average (.209)

    Without these getting significantly better very quickly not much else matters

  4. Charlie Waffles

    Two off-season ago the Reds mantra was “Get The Pitching”. Check that box. Last winter the mantra was “Get The Hitting”. Can’t check that box. This off-season the mantra is twofold and one has to be “Get The Right Manager” and second “Re-sign Bauer”.

    • Mark Moore

      Well, the Bauer signing won’t happen … I’d bet money on that. I’m in agreement about the manager, but if they were going to replace him, they’d have done it already.

      Status quo rules the day … very sad.

    • Jon

      Get the right manager, re-sign Bauer, and fix the hitting.

      I assume Stephenson will be the starting catcher next year and with Casali as backup, that makes Barnhart expendable. Votto, Moustakas, Suarez, Akiyama, and Castellanos are likely not going anywhere else in 2021. That leaves shortstop and either LF or CF as the two spots the Reds could upgrade this winter. The obvious answer to SS again is Gregorius, who becomes a FA this winter. To upgrade the outfield spot would mean trading away either Winker or Senzel (unless Castellanos unexpectedly opts out of his deal). Ozuna is a FA again this winter also.

  5. Broseph

    One of those expanded pitchers strike zone kinda games.

    Baseball really needs to look into Robo strikezones. Castellanos was out on strike 3 but had a horrid second strike. Votto strike 3 was close, still a ball, but his first strike was well outside.

    One strike completely changes at bats and it’s not like this is a hitter’s game anymore.

    • Broseph

      I’d love to see if someone, or some site keeps stats on players if the strike zone was consistent. I.e Votto would lead all time in OBP if he wasn’t rung up on poorly called pitches

      • Mark Moore

        I think all of us would like to see that, so +200 for the thought.

        Problem is without a locked down zone based on the rule book, it won’t happen. Umpires have way too much “authority” to use their own Flex-o-Zone.

        I’m completely with you on the Robo-Zone when the technology is ready (and I believe it’s very close).

  6. Sliotar

    Mahle – 24 pitches, 0 Ks.

    Short leash? Not let him get to order a 3rd time?

    So many losses in the books already, and given the opponent … can’t really treat this as just another game.

    Especially with how bad this offense is on the road.

  7. Mark Moore

    Just checking in. See Shogo lead off with a double followed by 3K’s to amount to zip. Reminds me why I choose to pass on watching some of these games.

    • Mark Moore

      And then Goodwin cranks one out for the good guys … go figure.

  8. Mark Moore

    OK – that’s all for me today. Maybe we recover, but that will burn 1-2 of those miracles we’d need to resign Bauer (need 3-5 for that).

    At least my MLB.tv was free this year with the T-Mobile purchase of Sprint. I suppose that’s something …

  9. Sliotar

    Nice K by Stephenson.

    Feels like a lot of juggling still ahead by Bell to get through 5 innings and have Iglesias pitch the 9th with a lead.

  10. Old-school

    Tyler Stephenson and Shogo giving good at bats . Both need to play everyday

  11. RedsFan11

    Can’t pitch the guy that we traded for….

  12. Jon

    Duvall with the Braves is up to 14 HR. Seriously?!?

    • Hanawi

      He’s had two 3 HR games this season. Sims has pitched well for the Reds though.

  13. Mark Moore

    Rookie … rookie … rookie … GO!!!

  14. Mark Moore

    That works … let’s go Shogo!!

  15. Sliotar

    Reds scored 3 runs last inning without a ball leaving the infield.

    There are a few folks on Reds Twitter (and one or two here) that believe the team’s record is the result of “bad luck.”

    That half-inning was for sure “good luck”, especially in a must-win game.

    Still gotta get 6 outs.

    • Mark Moore

      Yep. And some bad luck for the Birds plus a little good luck that Goldy was able to snag that throw from Carpenter. Those were the “game of inches” kinds of things.

  16. Mark Moore

    OK, Bader is a pretty good CF defender. Nice route and layout for him. Saved a double or triple.

  17. ClevelandRedsFan

    Looks like the Reds are trying to play a bit like the Cardinals and score via ground balls, walks, etc…AKA not mashing a million-foot 5-point homerun.

    And yes, my Browns lost and looked like a high school football team.

    • Mark Moore

      And then the blast by Geno is a nice add-on.

      I gave up on NFL football years ago. As a Dolphins fan, it wasn’t any fun anyway, so it was an easy choice.

  18. Mark Moore

    OK, that’s one clean inning for Iggy. I’m actually glad he’s tasked with a 2-inning save here. Means he’s not pitching at all tomorrow in the DH, but this one has to go our way.

  19. Hanawi

    Votto was definitely affected by the called 3rd strike in his first at bat that was low and outside. He’s chased two balls outside for Ks later in the game.

    • Mark Moore

      Yep. Even for a seasoned vet like JV, the Flex-o-Zone gets in their heads.

  20. Mark Moore

    We’ve ALL been waiting for that one!

  21. seadog

    Wow another nice AB by Aquino. When he lays off those low and away sliders he is tough.

  22. Melvin

    Aquino!…He’ll probably go down unfortunately when Senzel comes back. He doesn’t bat LH and we KNOW that’s the most important thing. Just ask David Bell.

  23. Melvin

    Garcia and Stephenson looked good today too. We’ve yet to see all three together in the starting lineup yet. If nothing else that would be a pretty good 7-9 in the order.

    • Mark Moore

      Garcia is coming along nicely. Have to keep reminding myself he’s 22. That’s younger than my oldest … who cannot play SS for anyone 🙂

  24. Mark Moore

    Nice D by Goldy … that was headed for trouble.

    OK, 3 more outs and we bug out of St. Loser!

  25. Mark Moore

    That was a Blue BB … he held off on what was strike 3 but it didn’t get called either way. That’s the garbage call that irks me.

  26. Mark Moore

    OK, finish it here and leave The Neck Tattoo in the on-deck circle!

  27. Mark Moore

    I don’t know about the rest of y’all … and I’m not saying this changes my opinion about what’s to come … but that really felt good this afternoon, especially after the rocky start.

    Back home for the DH tomorrow!

  28. TR

    What’s there to say with that relief pitching and 13 hits?

  29. seadog

    Nice win. If nothing else making it hard on the dirty birds
    I also would like to see Aquino/Stephenson/Garcia all start the same game. Play them
    If /when Senzel is back play an OF of Aquino LF/Senzel CF/Costellanos RF. DH Winker. Akiyama/Goodwin on the bench. I don’t care about any righty/lefty thing. Just try it for a week

    • Melvin

      I concur. It will be hard though to put Aki on the bench. I have a feeling Winker will not be himself. He’s had back problems before and way he swings he won’t last long.

      • seadog

        May be the case. If so DH Aquino. Akiyama in LF
        Good to see Bradley on the mound today also!!