The Reds took an early lead for a fourth consecutive game. Unfortunately, that has resulted in just a 2-2 record. Tejay Antone could not get an out in the fourth inning, and the Reds top relievers in 2020, Lucas Sims and Amir Garrett combined to give up 5 runs and 3 home runs.

Frustration really boiled over in the 9th inning when Joey Votto completely went off on the home plate umpire after striking out and was ejected. The Reds find themselves 3.5 behind the Cardinals for the NL Central #2 spot and 3.0 back of the final NL wild card spot. Time is running out for the 2020 Reds.

Final R H E
St. Louis Cardinals (20-19) 7 9 0
Cincinnati Reds (20-26) 1 3 0
W: Hudson (3-2) L: Antone (0-2)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Tejay Antone allowing a solo HR by Brad Miller to lead off the 4th inning. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 13.7% (from 62.7% to 44.1%).

Positives

Joey Votto doubled and had two hard hit balls on the night.

Jose Garcia had a pinch hit single with a sizzling 107.3 exit velocity.

Negatives

Tejay Antone got through the first three innings pretty easily, but he couldn’t get a batter out in the 4th. Jeff Brantley seemed to think that Antone started overthrowing after allowing a leadoff solo home run, and that hurt his ability to throw strikes.

Dakota Hudson dominated the Reds again. He now has a 1.05 ERA in 3 starts this season against the Reds and a 4.71 ERA vs everyone else.

Harrison Bader hit his third home run of the season against the Reds. He has 0 HR against anyone else this season.

Lucas Sims and Amir Garrett have been great this season, but they combined to give up 5 ER and 3 HR.

Nicholas Castellanos bounced into a a killer double play in third inning with runners on 1st & 3rd. It lowered the Reds win probability by 11.3%.

Up Next:

Reds at Cardinals
Sunday, 2:15 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Tyler Mahle (3.89 ERA/4.16 FIP) vs Carlos Martinez (12.27 ERA/7.96 FIP)

37 Responses

  1. Hanawi

    Archie Bradley hasn’t pitched in a week and has thrown 2.2 innings for the Reds (1.2 of those in a 16-2 loss).

    Brian Goodwin is now 5-29 with 2 walks and 11 Ks in 10 games with the Reds. He has 1 RBI. Before the trade, he went 3-29 with 16 Ks in his last 8 games for the Angels. Reds gave up two young LHPs for him.

    These were the 2 moves the Reds made to go for it instead of selling at the deadline. This front office needs to go.

    • Gene Kehoe

      I’ve been wondering myself why Bradley never pitches. He’s certainly looked better than most of the guys we have out there. Goodwin fits right in with the rest of these hitless wonders.

    • JB

      I dont get the Bradley benching. Front office trades for him and Bell refuses to use him. Its like Bell is begging to be fired.

      • Bill J

        They’re saving him for next year or he’s hurting.

      • RojoBenjy

        Bill J— i’m with you Archie was damaged goods.

        Par for the course.

    • ClevelandRedsFan

      I’ve been saying for 3+ weeks that the Reds need to SELL, SELL, SELL.

      Instead we give up another minor league LHP for another .230 outfielder. We have plenty of those.

  2. Gene Kehoe

    I thought the Reds bats might return to some sort of normalcy late in the season but I guess this is the new normal. 3 lousy hits. I wonder how many of these guys are going to end up with sub-.200 batting averages on their baseball cards for this year? Apparently about half of them!

    • JayTheRed(

      The under .220 averages is killing me and the On base skills of these hitters seems completely gone with a few exceptions. At this rate I’ll be surprised if anyone other than maybe Winker ends up with anything close to .280

      The 3 hits again is just driving me crazy.

      Tomorrow’s pitcher for the Cardinals has over a 12.00 ERA I guess. I bet the hitters make him look like an elite pitcher. (I of course hope I am wrong and they trash that guy with hits).

      • Gene Kehoe

        Have the Reds had a 10 hit game all the season? (A common thing for ordinary teams, but this Reds team is far from ordinary!) At this point it sure doesn’t seem like it…it feels like their average is about 5.

  3. Sliotar

    Reds on the road this season … wRC+ 76 (26th … Rockies away from Coors-level bad)

    Reds at home this season … wRC+ 103 (13th)

    The all or nothing approach looks great, feels great at home (Coors Field East) … but it doesn’t work on the road for the Reds.

    Last night, Votto 2-run HR early, Castillo complete game = win.

    Any let down from that … no HRs, bullpen has an off-night … on the road … forget about it. That’s what happened tonight.

    Dakota Hudson isn’t the Reds problem … Alan Zinter the hitting coach is certainly appears to be … and a few players, as well.

    • Reaganspad

      I do not know why we got rid of Don Long 2 coaches ago…..

      Change for change sake is not a good reason

  4. Charlie Waffles

    Like sands through the hourglass, these are the days of our lives, with the Reds. Time has run out. They have not earned any postseason play. And David Bell has not earned a third season to manage the Reds. This team has died under Bell’s “leadership”. It is dead. And it is starting to smell like it’s dead.

    • burt gummer

      You might as well get used to it Bell isn’t going anywhere

  5. jim m

    Bradley should be pitching. I trust him over Iglaseis!!! Let me guess Bells’ computer said not to pitch him.. how he made it tgru the interview process is beyond me.

    • JayTheRed(

      If anything have Bradley pitch the 8th and Iggy the 9th. Iggy is happy and pitches better and Bradley being the pretty good reliever he is keeps us winning the game.

      Oh wait we need to score runs to win games… That’s right..

    • Gene Kehoe

      I’m sure he had a computer printout helping him get thru it!

  6. GreatRedLegsFan

    What a disappointing season, Reds went from favorites to make the World Series to end as one of the worst teams overall. Front office cannot be fully blamed for this catastrophe, they tried to build a competitive roster with FA signings and trades, but at the end it proved to not being enough. Once again they’re facing the difficult task of addressing shortcomings with an already loaded roster. Some players will leave after the season, but others will stick around with no chance of being traded (Votto, Moustakas, Suarez, Akiyama, Iglesias), given the combination of price, age and performance. I believe this season impacted all teams in different ways, but perhaps the Reds were in the wrong side due to poor management and leadership. The lack of offensive really killed the team this time.

    • scotly50

      The FO certainly addressed the lack of offense during the off-season. They must be given credit for that. Problem was, and is the core needed replacement, (Votto, Saurez, Winker, Barnhart).

      I am not sure what they saw in Moose at all. A slow footed aging player. And Shogo looks like he breaks into a dance every time he is pitched.

  7. TR

    Some teams were prepared to deal with this special pandemic affected season. TB, ChiSox, SD and LA come to mind. Like in any organization, leadership comes from the top.

  8. JB

    As a long time Reds fan, one of the biggest embarrassments of this team was when Doc Holliday threw a no hitter against them in the playoffs. I fear if this team sneaks into the playoffs they will get no hitted in a 3 game series!

    • TR

      That was ten years ago. Not many good Red’s memories since then.

  9. Russell Proctor

    Look at the Reds lineup in the boxscore. Other than Stepehenson and Farmer, non-regulars, nobody is hitting over .232

    That is APPALLING.

    • Greenfield Red

      But hey, we traded away two quality left handed prospects for one of those .220 hitters and pitcher we don’t use.

      Botch City, USA

      • scotly50

        I am just thankful for they are up to .220.

    • JayTheRed(

      I noticed that too. I was even more ashamed to be a fan of this team when I saw that. Worst thing is that is after they as a team got 13 hits!!! Gotta be a season high for hits in a game.

  10. Steven Ross

    Reds are done so move forward with renewed optimism: The Bengals start today!

    • TR

      Let’s see what our young quarterback from LSU can do for the Bengals.

      • RojoBenjy

        gonna be hard to play quarterback when you’re always being slammed to the turf or running for your life

  11. ClevelandRedsFan

    We need to really start asking if the Reds hitting well is poisoned. Is Cincinnati the place where hitters careers go to die? It’s supposed to be a hitter-friendly park, but it seems like players always hit worse than career averages with the Reds.

    Look at the big offseason acquisitions

    Castellanos:
    Last year he hit .273 and then .321 with the Tigers and Cubs respectively.
    This year .232.
    He is now officially at 0.0 WAR on the season, making him a replacement player. I suppose the silver lining in this is no other team will want to pay a replacement player more than 14 million next year, so he might stay with the Reds.

    Moose:
    Last year he hit .254 with and this year he is at .233.
    He is also at 0.0 WAR on the season, but with less playing time.

    There is not one single player on the Reds who is hitting at or above career averages. There are a few who have a higher OPS. Clearly the hitting philosophy is not working. What more does the front office need to see to make a decision on the coaching this year?

    Votto: 80 points below career batting average
    Moose: 20 points below
    Galvis: 30 points below
    Suarez: 60 points below
    Barnhart: 60 points
    Shogo: Rookie
    Castellanos: 40 points (but his OPS is actually higher somehow)
    Winker: 7 points below (but his OPS is higher)
    Senzel: 10 points below (but his OPS is higher)

    Anyway, the Browns start today, so I get to double-dip in my disappointment.

    • DataDumpster

      Good summary. I was thinking of compiling a similar chart myself to further my supposition that “when 85% of the players vastly under perform, shouldn’t we suspect David Bell has something to do with this?” Regarding Castellanos and Moose though, I think the risk is that they both do stay. For what they paid them, I’m afraid they will just add to the dead weight of contract commitments we have on this team for the next 2-3 years.

    • JayTheRed

      I wonder if the reputation of Cincinnati being a hitters ballpark gets in the heads of the players and they try to swing for the fences too much.

  12. DataDumpster

    Three or four days ago, I postulated that a 3 game winning streak and .500 play otherwise would stand a good chance to make the playoffs because of St. Louis’ awful remaining schedule and the moribund efforts of the remaining contenders. Can’t the Reds do this! Just one time this season, go 3 days without a loss!… Yes, its been an historic season but the only thing I’ll probably remember competitively several years hence is the Reds BA. In 2018, they ranked 8th in MLB. With the Bell regime came a new batting coach and despite coming into some new promising offensive players, they slipped to 24th. In comes David Bell’s new batting coach for 2020 and several even more promising offensive players but it seems like the losing strategy of last year was doubled down upon…In the “Year of the Pitcher” of 1968 with a dismal .237 team BA, the Yankees hit the modern day team low BA with .214. This year, the league BA is pretty low, but not dismal, at .246. The Reds team BA is .209. For them to not break the 1968 Yankees record, a reasonable estimate of remaining AB would need them to hit 21st best in MLB with a .234 BA for the remaining games). Just like that 3 game winning streak, this seems eminently achievable but with this team it’s probably more likely that even more “history” will be made this year.

    • ClevelandRedsFan

      Hal McCoy has an article with the Dayton Daily news saying the Reds could break the all-time low batting average record in the modern era. The 1910 White Sox hit .212.

      Your dumpster fire 2020 Reds are hitting .209.

      How could the front office possibly justify keeping the manager and the hitting coach when you are the worst hitting team in the MLB in the last 110 years?

      • greenmtred

        I’m rooting for them to capture that record. A bright spot in one miserable season among many. In a reasonable world, they’d re-evaluate many things–hitting approaches, players to acquire and play, and so on. In this world, who could bet that they’ll do anything but continue as an unwatchable team?

      • DataDumpster

        I stand corrected. The Reds have even more room for error to not be the worst. As far as your final comment, almost any front office couldn’t justify keeping the manager but I don’t know who will remove Williams’ foot from his mouth, push Mr. Buddy Bell aside, and get on with it!

      • RojoBenjy

        “ How could the front office possibly justify keeping the manager and the hitting coach when you are the worst hitting team in the MLB in the last 110 years?”

        Because BABIP, haven’t you been paying attention? lol

        I have a suspicion that since the Reds just started to embrace analytics that they are still behind on how to use them. Like the leading teams have figured out there is more to it than just looking at BABIP and this being reassured that all will even out. I would venture to say hitting into the shift mindlessly over and over may be a key.

    • Gene Kehoe

      I had a strong feeling this was an historically bad hitting team…thanks guys for the statistical proof that backs it up. Something to remember this otherwise forgettable baseball season for! And I also hope it means the FO will have make some staff and philosophical changes!! (but probably won’t).