After picking up a win behind a complete game from Luis Castillo, the Cincinnati Reds (20-25) will go for the series win tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals (19-19), with the first pitch scheduled for 8:15pm ET. Cincinnati will send rookie right-handed starter Tejay Antone to the mound, hoping he will continue his outstanding rookie season. The Cardinals will be sending Dakota Hudson to the hill with the hopes that they can even the series up.

Starting Lineups

Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals

Shogo Akiyama – LF Kolten Wong – 2B
Nick Castellanos – RF Tommy Edman – RF
Joey Votto – 1B Paul Goldschmidt – 1B
Eugenio Suárez – 3B Brad Miller – DH
Brian Goodwin – CF Paul DeJong – SS
Freddy Galvis – 2B Matt Carpenter – 3B
Aristides Aquino – DH Austin Dean – LF
Tucker Barnhart – C Matt Wieters – C
Kyle Farmer – SS Harrison Bader – CF
Tejay Antone – SP Dakota Hudson – SP

Notably missing from the lineup again tonight are Jesse Winker and Mike Moustakas, both of whom left the game on Thursday with injuries. It’s possible both simply are getting an extra day because of Hudson’s reverse splits and they could be available off of the bench later in the game if needed.

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP BB% K%
Tejay Antone 25.1 2.49 0.95 11.1% 33.3%
Dakota Hudson 31.0 3.19 1.00 7.4% 22.3%
Links: Tejay Antone’s Stats | Dakota Hudson’s Stats

Tejay Antone

Tejay Antone’s breakout has been fun to watch as he’s missed a ton of bats, posting big strikeout numbers while splitting time between the bullpen and the rotation. But he’s also been getting a high number of ground balls, too – something he’s always shown in the minor leagues.

2020 Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
RHH 49 5 2 0 1 8.2% 42.9% .114 .204 .227
LHH 50 8 1 0 2 14.0% 24.0% .190 .320 .357

Antone has pitched well against both lefties and righties so far this season, but left-handed hitters have a very clear advantage both in terms of how often they walk and in how often they make contact. Right-handed hitters aren’t making hardly any contact, sporting a 43% strikeout rate – and they aren’t drawing many walks, either.

Pitch Usage in 2020

4-Seam 2-Seam Curve Slider Change
Velo 95.6 95.9 80.3 83.6 87.4
Usage 3% 39% 13% 42% 3%

Dakota Hudson

Dakota Hudson has the 7th best ground ball rate out of 110 pitchers this season with at least 30 innings pitched. 58.3% of the balls put in play against him are on the ground.

2020 Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
RHH 55 14 1 0 2 10.9% 21.8% .286 .364 .429
LHH 66 8 1 0 3 4.5% 22.7% .129 .182 .290

Dakota Hudson has some serious reverse splits going on in 2020. Right-handed hitters have a significant advantage in how often they walk, and how the contact they are making turns out. That latter part is pretty significant because lefties have a BABIP against him this year of just .114, while righties are sitting at a far more reasonable (but probably a tad higher than expected) .343. In his career, lefties have hit him better, posting a .764 OPS against him, compared to a .649 OPS from righties. But it’s also worth noting that prior to 2020 his strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties was terrible (66 walks and 70 strikeouts), while this year he has walked just three lefties and has struck out 15 of them.

Diving into his 2020 splits some more – both righties and lefties have huge ground ball tendencies against him (60% and 58%), but lefties are pulling the ball 55% of the time against him, while righties are doing so just 38% of the time. That could be a big factor into why lefties BABIP is so much lower – they pull the ball a ton against him, and they put the ball on the ground a ton…. which means a billion ground balls into the shift.

Pitch Usage in 2020

4-Seam 2-Seam Cutter Slider Change
Velo 93.2 93.6 88.9 82.7 86.9
Usage 23% 33% 21% 20% 2%

When and Where

  • Game time: 8:15pm ET
  • Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
  • Watch: Fox Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
  • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
  • Forecast: 75°, partly cloudy, 5% chance of rain

NL Central Standings

Team Wins Losses GB
Cubs 26 20
Cardinals 19 19 3.0
Brewers 20 22 4.0
Reds 20 25 5.5
Pirates 14 28 10.0

News and Notes

MLB has a plan for a playoff bubble and it is now in the hands of the players association to approve of, or offer changes to the plan. Their plan includes four stadiums and all of them are quite pitcher friendly, which could lead to some interesting games in October.

The Reds signed a pitching prospect

This week the Cincinnati Reds picked up a 17-year-old right-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic named Kelvin Valdez. He adds to a crop of players that the team signed last summer in the current signing class. Valdez has not been pitching very long, but is already reaching the mid-90’s and showing a secondary pitch. You can read more about him and the signing class right here.

Updated Playoff Odds

Fangraphs has the Cincinnati Reds playoff odds at 23.5% after the win last night and projects them to finish the season at 28-32. Baseball Reference gives the Reds a 13.7% chance at making the playoffs this year.

47 Responses

  1. Mark Moore

    Still puzzled with Goodwin over Shogo in CF … but I don’t make those decisions and at least Goodwin seems to be acclimating over the past couple games and running better routes from what little I’ve seen.

    Let’s take it to the Dirty Birds!!

  2. Chris Holbert

    At least they are giving T Stephenson a good amount since being brought from Prasco..

  3. Woodrow

    Well. Every game is important, but have to win at least every series plus a sweep here and there to make it work. Given tomorrow’s STL starter, I’d have to hope a lead or close game means Bradley, Sims, and (yes) Iglesias early tonight. Maybe Lorenzen to start an inning. Win tonight, see where tomorrow falls.

    Anyone else comes through the bullpen door and I wonder if I’m watching the same season as those in the organization.

    • Woodrow

      Meaning on tomorrow’s starter: Reds should have the advantage.

  4. Mark Moore

    Efficient inning by Antone. Not as efficient as his oppo, but not bad at all especially given that fluky hit he tried to stomp on.

  5. Wayne Nabors

    I almost give anything if I could get a good explanation for obtaining Brian goodwin, I’m not seeing anything

    • Mark Moore

      Yeah … uh … I got nothin’

      • Melvin

        He’s a left vs. a righty…another one. That’s all that matters. Didn’t you know that? lol

  6. Johnnie Sparks

    Pitching isn’t the problem. It’s the offence y is Barnhart out there should b Stephenson. Would b shocked if they get more then 4 hits

  7. Mark Moore

    The worst part about that was how many pitches Antone had to burn to get through the AB.

  8. Mark Moore

    Worked out of quite the jam there … nicely done.

  9. Mark Moore

    Surprised Tucker laid off that. More surprised it was called a ball given it looked like a strike.

  10. musicclown

    I turned on the game (internet) to of 3 and St Louis broadcaster has Wainwright talking and not saying one thing about the game. They did not announce 1 word during those 3 walks. I finally changed to Reds announcers.

  11. Mark Moore

    Small ball and patience … now let’s see if Castellanos can lift a fly ball or maybe hit to the gap (if not out of the park).

    • JB

      Hudson cant find strike zone and Castellanos swings at the first pitch down and in.

      • Mark Moore

        Yep … that GIDP really hurt. Shogo at least worked the count and produced a run.

    • TR

      The ability to hit a flyball with less than 2 outs to score from third is a lost art Teams know that Castellanos will go for the low outside pitch, and he swings hard like everything has to be a homerun plus his defense, in an important position, leaves a lot to be desired. If he leaves, so be it. I’d rather go with Aquino in right field. Give the young guy a chance.

  12. Johnnie Sparks

    Y not have Shot I steal or squeeze play. Try an make something happen. He sits back an waits for his players to hit hrs. He sits there with that deer in the headlights look. 2 runs might b enough.

  13. Capt. Phreddie Pizzazz

    With all the supposed talent on this team, I just don’t understand why they struggle so much to get hits. It seems like a nightly thing that has gone on since last season.

  14. Mark Moore

    Well that’s a revolting turn of events …

  15. JB

    Sims would have to be superman to get out of this mess.

    • Mark Moore

      Giving up one run will seem like a victory … then again if we can’t hit and produce any more ourselves, it won’t matter.

  16. VaRedsFan

    Nice play by Farmer…saved 1 run ….for now

  17. VaRedsFan

    Barnhart called for another up and away fastball (stood up) to Carpenter, with the defense shifted for him to pull. Carpenter served it the other way. STOP PITCHING AWAY when your defense is in a shift. Not the 1st time Tucker has done this.

  18. RedAlert

    Funny how with 15 games left in season Bell pulls starter this early . Sense of
    urgency too late Bell , too late

  19. JB

    Hudson with a no hitter going. There I said it. Hopefully it jinxes him.

    • Mark Moore

      Nice work. +5000 for you on JV’s double.

  20. Johnnie Sparks

    Gota quit the catcher standing up thing. Cost them a run. 0 hits thru 5. Way do u expect with this line up. Is anyone hitting over .235

  21. Mark Moore

    Nope, nope, nopity-nope … just got a little under that one.

  22. Mark Moore

    Well, good night friends. I’ve got bed and a book calling.

  23. RedAlert

    As Dandy Don used to sing on Monday night Football …”Turn out the lights , the party’s over …..

    Bye bye 2020 . Another year with
    expanded playoff and still can’t get in . No excuse for that with the talent on this team . ….Start 2021 by hiring a real Manager with MLB experience – or please sell the team to somebody that cares ….

    • RedAlert

      Just a losing culture that never changes … amazing and just sad . This stretch should make it crystal clear that changes need to happen with this dumpster fire of a
      manager / and some members of his coaching staff

    • Frogem

      Agreed! The Reds need a new owner. We have enough data points to understand what kind of staff and leadership Castellini brings to this team. It doesn’t work. He sets the stage for the culture, and that doesn’t work. It’s all broken.

  24. VaRedsFan

    Garrett not strutting and taunting tonight

  25. Daytonnati

    There is just zero competitive fire on this team. They’re mailing it in.

  26. Indy Red Man

    The Reds dedication to hitting reminds me of the dedication to dieting on My 600 Pound Life

  27. TR

    8th. innning: Reds have two hits. To avoid another lost season next year, the front office has to institute a new hitting philosophy. The offense, unless it’s a homerun,
    has just been pitiful.

    • Melvin

      There is no strategy thinking for most players. They’re just like a bunch of little kids playing home run derby.

      • That that had had

        And the Cards take the season series from the Reds for the ninth year in a row.