The Cincinnati Reds (19-25) open up a weekend series tonight at 8:15pm ET in St. Louis as they take on the Cardinals (19-18). With just 16 games remaining the Reds simply can’t afford any hiccups the rest of the season if their plan is going to include the playoffs. They need to go on a winning streak, and a long one. Tonight they’ll send Luis Castillo to the mound to try and get that going. The Cardinals will counter with their ace, Adam Wainwright, as they try to remain in second place within the National League Central.

Starting Lineups

Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals

Shogo Akiyama – LF Kolten Wong – 2B
Nick Castellanos – DH Tommy Edman – RF
Joey Votto – 1B Paul Goldschmidt – 1B
Eugenio Suárez – 3B Brad Miller – DH
Brian Goodwin – CF Paul DeJong – SS
Aristides Aquino – RF Yadier Molina – C
Freddy Galvis – 2B Matt Carpenter – 3B
Jose Garcia – SS Tyler O’Neill – LF
Curt Casali – C Lane Thomas – CS
Luis Castillo – SP Adam Wainwright – SP

The Reds suffered a few injuries last night with Jesse Winker (back) and Mike Moustakas (foot) both exiting the game early. Neither is in the lineup tonight, which is notable since both are left-handed hitters and that plays well into the type of hitter who has found some success against Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright (see his splits below).

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP BB% K%
Luis Castillo 43.1 3.95 1.48 8.8% 31.1%
Adam Wainwright 40.1 2.68 0.92 5.7% 19.6%
Links: Luis Castillo’s Stats | Adam Wainwright’s Stats

Luis Castillo

Lots of strikeouts. Lots of ground balls when guys do make contact. But a lot of those grounders have gone through for hits this season, too. The league is hitting .227 on ground balls this year – but against Luis Castillo they are hitting .303 on ground balls this year.

2020 Splits

RHH 93 23 5 0 0 5.4% 32.3% .264 .312 .322
LHH 100 24 6 1 4 12.0% 30.0% .276 .360 .506

Lefties have found a lot more success against Luis Castillo than righties. The advantage comes more so in walking a lot more, and in hitting for a lot more power. When it comes to the actual hits – they don’t really get more hits, they just make those hits batter a lot more.

Pitch Usage in 2020

4-Seam 2-Seam Slider Change
Velo 97.8 97.9 87.2 88.7
Usage 29% 22% 18% 31%

Adam Wainwright

BABIP. We’ve heard all about it this season with regards to the Cincinnati Reds. But for as much as it’s been hurting the Reds offense, it’s been helping Adam Wainwright. His BABIP against has been between .310 and .330 over the previous four seasons. This year, though, it’s .207 and it’s keep his numbers – particularly his ERA and WHIP at very low levels right now.

2020 Splits

RHH 75 11 3 0 0 8.0% 26.7% .164 .253 .209
LHH 83 17 2 0 5 3.6% 13.3% .215 .241 .430

Left-handed hitters aren’t walking at all against Adam Wainwright. They also aren’t striking out at all against Adam Wainwright. But they aren’t getting any hits, either. The ones that they do tend to get are counting, though, as they are slugging .430 with just a .215 average.

Pitch Usage in 2020

4-Seam 2-Seam Curve Cutter Change
Velo 89.7 89.7 74.1 85.5 82.4
Usage 10% 27% 35% 25% 3%

When and Where

  • Game time: 8:15pm ET
  • Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
  • Watch: Fox Sports Ohio,
  • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
  • Forecast: 79°, partly cloudy, 5% chance of rain.

NL Central Standings

Team Wins Losses GB
Cubs 26 19
Cardinals 19 18 3.0
Brewers 19 22 5.0
Reds 19 25 6.5
Pirates 14 27 10.0

News and Notes

Last night’s game sucked for the Cincinnati Reds. They lost the game. They also lost a few players to injury. Jesse Winker’s back tightened up on him, and he’s out of the lineup tonight. Mike Moustakas was hit in the foot with a pitch, which began to swell up during the game and resulted in his exiting the game an inning later. Late in the game Tyler Thornburg also left the game with an injured elbow.

Not likely that Nick Senzel will join the Reds in St. Louis

Updated Playoff Odds

After the loss in Chicago last night the Cincinnati Reds playoff odds are down to 19.5% according to Fangraphs, who projects them to finish 28-32 on the season. Baseball Reference projects the Reds playoff odds at just 9.8%.