The Cincinnati Reds (19-25) open up a weekend series tonight at 8:15pm ET in St. Louis as they take on the Cardinals (19-18). With just 16 games remaining the Reds simply can’t afford any hiccups the rest of the season if their plan is going to include the playoffs. They need to go on a winning streak, and a long one. Tonight they’ll send Luis Castillo to the mound to try and get that going. The Cardinals will counter with their ace, Adam Wainwright, as they try to remain in second place within the National League Central.

Starting Lineups

Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals

Shogo Akiyama – LF Kolten Wong – 2B
Nick Castellanos – DH Tommy Edman – RF
Joey Votto – 1B Paul Goldschmidt – 1B
Eugenio Suárez – 3B Brad Miller – DH
Brian Goodwin – CF Paul DeJong – SS
Aristides Aquino – RF Yadier Molina – C
Freddy Galvis – 2B Matt Carpenter – 3B
Jose Garcia – SS Tyler O’Neill – LF
Curt Casali – C Lane Thomas – CS
Luis Castillo – SP Adam Wainwright – SP

The Reds suffered a few injuries last night with Jesse Winker (back) and Mike Moustakas (foot) both exiting the game early. Neither is in the lineup tonight, which is notable since both are left-handed hitters and that plays well into the type of hitter who has found some success against Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright (see his splits below).

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP BB% K%
Luis Castillo 43.1 3.95 1.48 8.8% 31.1%
Adam Wainwright 40.1 2.68 0.92 5.7% 19.6%
Links: Luis Castillo’s Stats | Adam Wainwright’s Stats

Luis Castillo

Lots of strikeouts. Lots of ground balls when guys do make contact. But a lot of those grounders have gone through for hits this season, too. The league is hitting .227 on ground balls this year – but against Luis Castillo they are hitting .303 on ground balls this year.

2020 Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
RHH 93 23 5 0 0 5.4% 32.3% .264 .312 .322
LHH 100 24 6 1 4 12.0% 30.0% .276 .360 .506

Lefties have found a lot more success against Luis Castillo than righties. The advantage comes more so in walking a lot more, and in hitting for a lot more power. When it comes to the actual hits – they don’t really get more hits, they just make those hits batter a lot more.

Pitch Usage in 2020

4-Seam 2-Seam Slider Change
Velo 97.8 97.9 87.2 88.7
Usage 29% 22% 18% 31%

Adam Wainwright

BABIP. We’ve heard all about it this season with regards to the Cincinnati Reds. But for as much as it’s been hurting the Reds offense, it’s been helping Adam Wainwright. His BABIP against has been between .310 and .330 over the previous four seasons. This year, though, it’s .207 and it’s keep his numbers – particularly his ERA and WHIP at very low levels right now.

2020 Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
RHH 75 11 3 0 0 8.0% 26.7% .164 .253 .209
LHH 83 17 2 0 5 3.6% 13.3% .215 .241 .430

Left-handed hitters aren’t walking at all against Adam Wainwright. They also aren’t striking out at all against Adam Wainwright. But they aren’t getting any hits, either. The ones that they do tend to get are counting, though, as they are slugging .430 with just a .215 average.

Pitch Usage in 2020

4-Seam 2-Seam Curve Cutter Change
Velo 89.7 89.7 74.1 85.5 82.4
Usage 10% 27% 35% 25% 3%

When and Where

  • Game time: 8:15pm ET
  • Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
  • Watch: Fox Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
  • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
  • Forecast: 79°, partly cloudy, 5% chance of rain.

NL Central Standings

Team Wins Losses GB
Cubs 26 19
Cardinals 19 18 3.0
Brewers 19 22 5.0
Reds 19 25 6.5
Pirates 14 27 10.0

News and Notes

Last night’s game sucked for the Cincinnati Reds. They lost the game. They also lost a few players to injury. Jesse Winker’s back tightened up on him, and he’s out of the lineup tonight. Mike Moustakas was hit in the foot with a pitch, which began to swell up during the game and resulted in his exiting the game an inning later. Late in the game Tyler Thornburg also left the game with an injured elbow.

Not likely that Nick Senzel will join the Reds in St. Louis

Updated Playoff Odds

After the loss in Chicago last night the Cincinnati Reds playoff odds are down to 19.5% according to Fangraphs, who projects them to finish 28-32 on the season. Baseball Reference projects the Reds playoff odds at just 9.8%.

79 Responses

  1. Aaron B.

    Well I suppose never say die. The team has shown flashes but no consistent winning baseball acumen. But who knows maybe a light bulb went off last night and they play better to the end and make things interesting.

    It looks like the Padres are the darling Cinderella story this year, so no one will care our Reds go under and choke which the odds are they will do.

  2. Bred

    Nick must have been hit hard by what put him on the IL. I do hope that he, like the 6,400,000 people in the USA who have gone on their own personal IL and survived, suffer no long term effects.

    • Mark Moore

      Amen. All we know so far is it can be NASTY and take a long time to recover (and even then not recover all the way).

  3. seadog

    Akiyama has now the lead off spot. What more could Bell do?? I was really hoping all 3 of Garcia/Stephenson and Aquino would be in the lineup tonight. Not the case

    • Melvin

      Would have liked Casty for Goodwin and Stephenson at least DH. Great arm last night throwing out Billy.

  4. Aaron B.

    Why is Goodwin being asked to play CF yet again? He is making errors on a nightly basis. Akyama is the superior defender maybe slightly less range but who cares at this point keep Goodwin where he was more comfortable. This is an example of someone in the GM office thinking they could convery Goodwin to CF and its been nothing but disaster defensively.

    • Greenfield Red

      The Reds gave up more prospects for yet another .220 hitting outfielder who is a terrible defender. But, hey, we get to keep him next year too.

      • Melvin

        Just saw Davidson cleared waivers. How many has that been that were on our opening day active roster that we have DFA and no one else wanted? Colon and Davidson come to mind.

  5. seadog

    David Bell is “salivating” right now
    The Rays are starting all left handed hitters against a right handed pitcher tonight. True lefties 1 thru 9.

  6. Redsfan4life

    I didn’t see the game last night. But did Winker do one of his patented swing so hard he falls down swings? If so it is no wonder his back has flared up.

    • Melvin

      Don’t know if that anything to do with it but it was obvious at least to me that the way he was swinging it was just a matter of time before he was injured. He doesn’t exactly have a injury free past either.

  7. Hanawi

    Wow. Absolute bomb from Votto on the road. First HR on the road and only the 7th hit in over 80 PAs.

  8. earmbrister

    Garcia is a K just waiting to happen. He just seems overmatched at the plate in MLB.

  9. earmbrister

    Garcia is a K just waiting to happen. He just seems overmatched at the plate in MLB.

    • VaRedsFan

      agree….they will need to get a full time SS going into 2021

      • RedAlert

        Man Shogo is figuring it out …
        impressive how far he has come

  10. VaRedsFan

    I thought there was no way that gets overturned.

  11. RedAlert

    No excuse why Castillo not hustling over there in the first place – just another
    characteristic of this David Bell managed team – terrible fundamentally sound team -Sick of watching this crap game after game . REAL manager would put up with this
    lackadaisical efforts . Been like this all year with this guy managing . Bell is in WAY OVER HIS HEAD .

  12. Melvin

    Wait….did we just score a run without hitting a HR? 🙂

  13. earmbrister

    Unfortunately, the Reds have (dramatically) exceeded their hit quota for the game, with 5 hits, so we’re gonna need to shut this down …

    Can they keep this up?

    • Melvin

      Hope we’re not borrowing hits from next game. Have to spread em out. 🙂

      • earmbrister

        I seem to recall a 3-0 lead yesterday that evaporated. We need to keep scoring, particularly vs the WLB

      • earmbrister

        I seem to recall a 3-0 lead yesterday that evaporated. We need to keep scoring, particularly vs the WLB

      • Melvin

        Yep….we just need to pay for some extra hits no matter what the cost.

      • earmbrister

        The FO thought they had paid for some extra hits with the Castellanos and Moose contracts.

        It’s been a challenging year in oh so many ways.

  14. Melvin

    Aki is a hitter…a real “hitter”.

  15. VaRedsFan

    Looked like a hit and run, without the hit part

  16. Hanawi

    Man that Goodwin trade looks worse by the day. He’s done nothing since he came over.

    • RedAlert

      Not impressed with him at all …

      • RedAlert

        Lol – figured that was coming …

      • Don

        Goodwin does look to be playing defense our of position, does not look like a solid CF.
        At least we can see him play and have an opinion.
        Bradley has only pitch 2.2 innings as the BP keeps imploding. That trade is worse unless Bell starts using him.

  17. seadog

    worse news is coming–look out. Giants player test positive. Those two “crawl in” spots for the playoffs?? Reds may be watching at home to see if they qualify….

  18. Melvin

    Okay. Someone needs to tell Galvis it’s against the rules anymore to use your brains when hitting. He’s probably in trouble.

    • Don

      someone needs to tell Garcia is the ball starts in the left handed hitter batter box and is breaking away from you, do not swing.

      • Melvin

        That would be good advice. I think he will be a good hitter. Just lacking confidence right now. He think he swung at two ball fours.

  19. seadog

    Very/Very nice outing by Castillo.
    Here we go, who comes out of the pen??

    • Don

      hoping Garrett and Bradley. Leave everyone else but Sims in the clubhouse or better yet back at the hotel so Bell cannot use them.

      • Don

        Castillo at 80 pitches, he should be good for the 7th but have Garrett ready for Carpenter as the 4th hitter in the inning.

      • Melvin

        Very hard to “Bell Proof” the entire roster.

  20. Don

    Hoping not to be a Jinx but the Reds defense seems to be playing well (compared to the normal 2020 Reds) behind Castillo tonight. Hope they can continue for 3 more innings.

    Need to get a couple more add on runs, Cards will make a run at the 2 run lead sometime in the next 3 innings.

  21. Mark Moore

    Under 90 pitches. That should earn him the 8th inning … but is that what we’ll see?

    • VaRedsFan

      I’d say, keep pitching until he allows a baserunner, or 110 pitches

      • Mark Moore

        That’s probably a fair ceiling. Far cry from the “olden days”.

  22. Don

    solid 1,2,3 7th, 8 pitch inning, 88 total. let him start the 8th

  23. Mark Moore

    Now pitching for the WLB’s, Chevy Chase … I mean Ty Webb.

  24. Don

    Another 8 pitch inning, 8 innings, 96 pitches. Please leave him in the game.

    Please do NOT go to Iglesias for the 9th.

  25. Mark Moore

    95 pitches can’t get much more efficient than that. Really hope Bell lets him ride and we play add-on of a couple more runs.

  26. Don

    Aquino, Galvis, Garcia. Let’s get a run to give Castillo a little more space.

    Do whatever is needed to score 1 more run.

  27. Melvin

    Cowboy is correct, “Ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

  28. Don

    No pitching change, Go get the complete game

  29. Don

    Wow, that was a missed strike 3, that pitch has been called all night. That is a terrible call.

    • Mark Moore

      Well, these are Major League Egopires … I mean Umpires. They decide what the Flex-o-Zone looks like regardless of the rules.

  30. Don

    Yes, great pitching for Castillo and the defense played well

  31. Melvin

    Well we have to make it a little dramatic but we got it. 🙂

  32. VaRedsFan

    he threw a bullet to Votto…..luckily it was a strike.
    112 pitches, and his arm is still attached…Amazing

  33. seadog

    Just outstanding by Castillo…Wow…Props.

  34. Mark Moore

    Nicely done! We needed that for a myriad of reasons. Always sweet to take down the WLB’s or Stupid Cubs.

  35. Hanawi

    First 9 inning complete game for the Reds since Scott Feldman in 2017

  36. Don

    Guess Castillo wanted to put to end the talk that he is the 4th or 5th starter on this staff. Got 1st win last time and 1st complete game this time.

    Keep alive the possibility of getting to 500 for the year vs Cards.

  37. seadog

    And Doug will be happy…The Reds probably raised there BABIP–that “luck” stat…

  38. Melvin

    Well, Bell made the correct decision in leaving him in there. I wander if someone emptied out the bullpen and he had no choice. :)….maybe they locked the gate. lol

  39. TR

    Good move by Bell. Complete game by Castillo. That’s a confidence booster.

  40. Johnnie Sparks

    To bad they couldn’t hold onto the 3-0 lead last night. Would b going for 4 in a row. Need tomorrows gm badly. Offence needs to catch fore last 2 weeks. Maybe senzel picks up where he left off. Shogo , votto,suarez,Winkler , castellanos ,moose, senzel,glavis, Stephenson. Run that for last 2 weeks might get last wild card

  41. Johnnie Sparks

    To bad they couldn’t hold onto the 3-0 lead last night. Would b going for 4 in a row. Need tomorrows gm badly. Offence needs to catch fore last 2 weeks. Maybe senzel picks up where he left off. Shogo , votto,suarez,Winkler , castellanos ,moose, senzel,glavis, Stephenson. Run that for last 2 weeks might get last wild card