The Reds offense could not get anything going on Saturday night. It has unfortunately become an all too common theme for the 2020 Reds. Kwang-Hyun Kim recorded his first big league win tonight for the Cardinals, as he allowed just 3 hits and 0 walks over six strong innings.

Final R H E
St. Louis Cardinals (8-8) 3 7 0
Cincinnati Reds (11-14) 0 4 0
W: Kim (1-0) L: Miley (0-3) S: Gallegos (1)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Wade Miley allowing a 2-run single to Tommy Edman with 1 out in the 3rd inning, giving the Cardinals a 2-0 lead. That play decreased the Reds probability of winning by 11.9% (from 34.8% to 22.9%).

Positives

Kyle Farmer had three hits.

Tejay Antone had another great outing, pitching 2.1 scoreless innings. Antone now has a 1.72 ERA/3.05 FIP through 15.2 innings this season.

The Reds bullpen continues to roll. They have allowed just 3 runs over the past 26.0 innings.

Negatives

The Reds offense was rough. Guys not named Kyle Farmer had 1 hit and 2 walks combined. They did have 9 hard hit balls on the night according to Statcast (Cardinals only had 3).

Wade Miley was……well Wade Miley. Not good, not terrible. He only allowed 3 hard hit ball on the night and was victim to some bad luck, but he also walked 3 guys.

Not so random thoughts…………..

Our old friend Richard Fitch pointed out the Reds are dead last in the MLB in BABIP at .236 (and there is big gap between the Reds at the next worse). You would have to think that will even out at some point. The worst team in the MLB in 2019 was .280 (the worst at the all-star break was .272).

Big game tomorrow for the Reds. If they could just get out of St. Louis with a split, they’d have to be feeling pretty good about themselves.

Up Next:

Reds at Cardinals,
Sunday, 2:15 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Tyler Mahle (3.38 ERA) vs Daniel Ponce de Leon (6.14 ERA)

41 Responses

  1. Cubano

    People often speak of winning culture- Joey Votto and Nick Castellanos both ended up throwing their bats and helmets on the ground after failing to get on base tonight. Votto was screaming on the field after striking out. This was all before the sixth inning. I don’t understand how elite hitters can be this frustrated- so completely in their own heads, with no resources to help get them on track. The point of bringing these players together on one team is to harness their strengths. What I see is a culture that enables everyone’s weaknesses. These guys are absolutely deflated. Hippy implications aside- The vibe is not positive. The Reds have some of the best players in the world, and they are floundering without guidance. Right or wrong- David Bell as manager has to own this. Player’s manager? Then why don’t the players feel him in their corner? The outbursts are a real sign of what’s at work at the heart of this ball club. Even if they make the playoffs, come on- they’re playing miserably. Bad fielding, bad hitting, bad bullpen. Antone is a breath of fresh air. What a waste of talent.

    • Indy Red Man

      Mario Mendoza is still alive….if the Reds continue like they are then do the man a solid and finish sub .200 as a team. It will then be known as the Redline and MM can breath easy!

    • David

      Why would you think the Reds have “some of the best players in the world”?

      Joey Votto 2020 is not the Joey Votto of 2015-2017, and never will be again. People have to face the fact that he is in permanent decline. And being the total pro that he is, has a temper tantrum on the field.

      Leadership.

      Suarez is lost, I have no idea what is wrong with him.

      Castellanos has sort of kept them respectable, as has Winker, but really, that’s about it.
      Matt Davidson won the game the other night with a pinch hit GS. That isn’t going to happen very often.

      Bell is a clueless manager, who puts no motivation into the team.

      This team is not going to any playoff. They are what they are.

    • Tom Reeves

      The low BABIP has to be frustrating. They’re dead last in the NL in batting average, which definitely leads to the “no spark” feeling. They’re tenth in OPS.

      They’re playing like a David Bell press conference.

      When Winker was slumping to begin the season, he kept staying in the box and wouldn’t move for the inside pitch. He got hit a few times and he also began taking walks. Then, he got better pitches to hit and he started tagging them. (Something else about Winker – even when he was slumping, he was running hard to every time he made contact).

      As I’ve watching Reds hitters over the last few weeks, they’re regularly jumping out of the way of inside pitches. Maybe everyone needs an elbow guard and a football hip pad to hang in there and take away the inside pitch.

      • Gene Kehoe

        “They’re playing like a David Bell press conference.” Classic!

  2. Davy13

    “Big game tomorrow for the Reds. If they could just get out of St. Louis with a split, they’d have to be feeling pretty good about themselves.”

    Is this what it comes down to for this team? Feeling good about a split with a so-so team at best and being a couple of game below .500. Ugh…

    • Sliotar

      @Davy13 … good call pointing this out.

  3. Cubano

    I said last season- the post-game conferences were like watching paint dry. A modicum of reflection of critical thinking- but no spark. What’s this year lookin’ like? Hmm- a team that knows they suck, but won’t put the energy into hyping themselves to a victory. Lame game. This ballclub sucks and Tyler Stephenson and Jose Garcia, cool as they are, aren’t the solution to a problem with the culture

    • jim walker

      Do you have any ideas what the culture issues are, where they come from and how to fix them? I have puzzled over these questions for some time now myself.

      I think about how the NHL team up the road in Columbus turned their fortunes from perennial cellar contender to be in the playoff picture every year (5 appearances in the last 6 years including the last 4 years consecutively).

      This turnaround happened when the family ownership finally decided they had done enough stumbling through false starts at changing things on the ice and ending up still lost in the wilderness. The team president, a long time employee of the ownership group predating his 5 year involvement with the team, stepped away from the hockey side of the franchise. The team hired a proven hockey executive who had a track record of previous success running the entire hockey operations side of an NHL franchise. They handed this guy the keys and told him we will agree on your hockey operations budget then get out of your way and let you run things on the hockey side.

      The Reds have tried a lot of things in the last 6 years or so and despite marginal improvement are still struggling. Maybe it is time to find the right guy or gal to hand the keys to baseball operations to and get out of their way?

      • jessecuster44

        Maybe stop being nepotistic.

      • Melvin

        I think the Reds front office has, for the most part, been doing a very good job the past few years. I also believe they have come real close to getting us over the hump so to speak. However, IMO, there are two things they’re responsible for that basically took the air out of all the good things they’ve done. First it was last year. After making all of the trades and getting rid of Homer Bailey and his contract, everyone was extremely excited…..until they started playing games with Nick Senzel and his service time. Sending him down took the air out of all the good they had just done and IMO is a big reason for the slow start last year. This year they spent a lot of money and everyone was excited again. The only problem is they don’t have a manager that can handle the situation of the short but very important season and seemingly refuse to do anything about it. I don’t want to talk about David Bell. I don’t want to talk about anyone losing his/her job. I have to ask though, what other alternative is there? Things and literally the entire season are falling apart right before our very eyes. Isn’t the manager responsible for the morale of the team? Isn’t he responsible for getting and keeping his team motivated? Isn’t he responsible for getting and keeping the respect of his players? Isn’t he responsible for getting them to “gell? There are so many intangible things a manager is responsible for. Anyone can make out a lineup (and there’s much debate about that too obviously). This team looks lethargic and pretty near depressed. Whatever the reason, fair or not, the players are NOT responding to their manager. If something doesn’t change real fast then there is a very REAL possibility of not making the playoffs. From a baseball standpoint I ask you, with all of the talent we have, with all of the money that was spent, with so many teams making the playoffs…..with all of the losing we’ve been doing for six years…….wouldn’t that be a tragedy? I ask again, what choice do we have but to replace Davis Bell under these circumstances? Reds management for the most part has done very well for us. It’s time for them to follow through and finish what they started to make this a winning team/organization. Don’t just do a very good job and then stop before the job is done. Follow through and finish. Do what it takes. All of us Reds fans would very much appreciate it. 🙂

    • mudpuppie

      Maybe the Reds will get a participation trophy at the end of the year!! Too hard to fire the manager with his dad in the front office. Too hard to fire Williams with his family in ownership. How many of Big Bob’s family are in the front office? No way to fire them. No one has the guts to move Votto or Suarez down in the lineup. The Reds have painted themselves into this corner….

      • VaRedsFan

        If you move them down, the guys you put in their place aren’t any better.
        Ervin,Janko, Akiyama, galvis, the catchers…ect

      • mudpuppie

        vareds fan:
        Good point…. Sadly you are correct

  4. LDS

    The club spends $64 million on Moustakas. He has a long stint on the IL. He’s back in the lineup for 2-3 games and Bell rests him again? And how many of today’s lineup are batting under .200. Fire Bell tonight, along with the bench coach and the hitting coach. Hell, give the Larkin a shot. At least he understands winning. Bell certainly doesn’t

    • Klugo

      Bell really lacks feel for the game. Reed for Antone worked tonight, butt only because he got lucky. Reed is a disaster waiting to happen. Antone is pitching lights out and he brings Reed in because he wants a LHP vs LHB. Bell is really cut from the same cloth as Price. They are very similar managers really. Stuck on “everyone has a job to do and I trust them to do it” attitude rather than doing what makes sense.
      K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple Stupid.

      • ClevelandRedsFan

        Antone continues to prove himself. I think it’s about time they start bringing him in for more than mop up and long-relief. I’d like to see him come out of the pen in the 6th and pitch 3-4 straight innings.

        Keeping him in somewhat a starter form will be key. The Reds will need him as a 5th starter next year.

        I will give the front office/coaching on the pitching side. Despite playing in GABP, the Reds have drafted, developed, and/or traded strong pitching in the past 5 years: Garrett, Lorenzen, Antone, Sims, Castillo, Bauer, Gray, even Iglesias.

        This organization seems to have a blind spot for hitting. Might be time to bring in a Boddy type that focuses on hitting. This franchise so sorely needs 1-2 hitting gurus to guide the players: one in the front office to scout/draft and a hitting coach.

        Yes, I know you can’t credit Boddy for all of the successes above as he is still new.

  5. Sliotar

    Nights like tonight happen …

    but it also shows that the Reds have little to no margin for error.

    Votto as leadoff hitter has nothing to offer but trying to draw a walk.
    Suarez is a disaster.

    Those are 2 of the Reds top 4 hitters, virtually every day.

    That isn’t a World Series caliber top of the offense lineup … right now, does not look like a 2020 playoff-caliber offense, expanded or not.

    • Cubano

      I agree- expanded playoffs are a hope and a prayer. World Series? HA

  6. Sliotar

    Nights like tonight happen …

    but it also shows that the Reds have little to no margin for error.

    Votto as leadoff hitter has nothing to offer but trying to draw a walk.
    Suarez is a disaster.

    Those are 2 of the Reds top 4 hitters, virtually every day.

    That isn’t a World Series caliber top of the offense lineup … right now, does not look like a 2020 playoff-caliber offense, expanded or not.

  7. jessecuster44

    All too common theme that the bats go silent. That’s what you get when your hitting philosophy is HR or walk.

  8. GreatRedLegsFan

    In Bell’s favor I’d say that nobody was expecting such a subpar production from several key players (Votto .723, Suarez .560, Akiyama .578). Fortunately, they’ve already sent JVM down, which is something. In my opinion, it’s very unlikely that Votto will ever rebound his numbers, while Suarez should come around, hopefully sooner than later. Maybe hitting lower in the lineup could help. Once Senzel is back, Akiyama can be benched again hoping he’ll figure it out sometime. That combination of poor offensive + unreliable bullpen can be catastrophic, but there’s still time to right the ship.

    • jim walker

      But just maybe it was (or should have been) somebody’s job to understand or figure out where Votto was on the aging decline curve. Or what sort of adjustment period Akiyama was going to need jumping from the Japanese league to MLB.

      As for Eugenio, maybe it is time to start looking into exactly how healthy his supposedly healed shoulder really is.

    • mudpuppie

      A good manager finds ways to win with what he has. I remember the early ’60’s when the Dodgers were the worst hitting, run scoring team in baseball, but Walt Alston found way to win playing small ball plus good pitching. You just can’t home run derby your way out of this hole. Hit and run, stolen bases, go the other way and bunt when the other team is giving it to you….

  9. Rednat

    Nick i have been a Reds fan for a long time dating back to the 50s as a young kid. i don’t watch or listen every game but i always look at the box scores. I tell you for the most part during this century the reds get “quality starts ” from our pitchers. seems like much more than i can recall from the 70s,80s and 90s. over the past 6 or 7 years this team has just had too many nights like tonight. we get quality pitching but no offense.

    i think the organization really needs to think about its approach to an extent. i feel since about 2005/2006 the club has been a little too obsessed about finding starting pitching and give up too much offense in the process.

    imo it all started with the Felipe Lopez trade in 2006. since then i feel the reds have made just too many mistakes in giving up on good offensive players. i mean, think how much better this team would be with Jose Iglesias at shortstop right now. even the Puig/ Bauer trade was questionable and really hurt the team last year in the second half as Puig was on pace to possible join the 30/30 club.

    even at the minor league level i think we get too caught up with the pitching. i mean i look at a guy like Hunter Greene. who knows if he will ever pitch a game in the majors. but you can just tell the kid could play shortstop at the major league level just based on his athleticism alone.

    i just think there are plenty of Wade Miley’s in MLB right now. Guys that can give you 5-6 inning of 2-3 run baseball. but there are not many dynamic offensive players left. they are at a premium so if we run across one we need to try harder to hold on to them. i know i am rambling but these 3-0, 2-1 losses where we only get 3 or 4 hits are starting to get old! lol

  10. DaveCZt

    Public Service Announcement. The Boston Red Sox are having a fire sale, including theIr closer Matt Barnes.

  11. TR

    There’s a lot of comments that ‘Bell should go.’ IMO that’s not going to happen, certainly not in the immediate future. Operationally and organizationally the Reds are a rather in-bred culture with both the manager and front office leaders from long established Cincinnati families. There’s a lack of an inspirational spark that consistently winning teams have such as in the Red Machine Era of fifty years ago when the manager and GM were brought in from the outside. The only possibility I see for now is a change in the hitting coach.

  12. Terry Diener

    When is this “experiment” with Joey Votto as leadoff hitter going to end? I heard the Reds announcers say during the ballgame there is just no one else to put in that position at this time. Really? That’s a sad commentary on the makeup of the team. Leadoff hitters need to get on base. They need speed! Look, I like Votto. He used to be very good. It’s time to give some other younger players an opportunity.

    • TR

      With Senzel not in the lineup, it makes sense to me to leadoff with Shogo and have him in centerfield. It’s his first year in MLB, so give him a chance to make it happen. Nothing stays the same, so bat Votto ahead of the DH. His forte now is getting on base usually with a walk.

    • jim walker

      That’s (Votto being the best leadoff option) a sad commentary on the makeup of the team.

      I agree 100%. Votto’s OBP is still at a respectable level; but, once he is on 1st, can they hit and run with him? Does he go 1st to 3rd on singles any more? How about scoring from 1st on a double?

  13. Vared

    Seems to me with nobody else hitting Farmer should be playing everyday somewhere. He looks very comfortable wherever he is.

    • RedsMonk65

      I concur 100%

      There are options when some players aren’t performing. Championship teams find them.

  14. Old-school

    Reds can win if Senzel comes back, moose stays healthy, Suarez plays like the 2 time team MVP he is and Lorenzen gets back to his prior self. Those things are not far fetched.

    There is no more margin for error though. IF the reds lose today, they would be 7 games behind the Cards in the loss column in an odd year of not knowing if everyone plays the same amount of games. A win today and the Reds are 4 up in the win column and 5 back in the loss column to the Cards. Very doable to Hit a hot streak and finish 2nd in the NL Central ahead of Cards/Brewers.

    The trade deadline is next Monday. The end of the season is 5 weeks away. At what point do the Reds start addressing roster construction for this year, knowing next year? Trade for a controllable young lefty in the bullpen. Bring up Stephenson. Let Casali play some first base against lefties. Bring up AA.

  15. Jack

    Sell everything that you don’t have long term control over at the deadline and start again. Hire an experienced manager.

  16. Erik the Red

    The Reds have wasted good starting pitching these past two years. The offense is just awful especially when you consider they play half of their games in GABP. No true lead-off hitter is probably 25 percent of the problem.

  17. mudpuppie

    First impression to me is that they need to hire a real SOB for a manager that is hard core. But, I don’t think today’s players respond to that like the old time players did. Can you imagine a manager now days making the team stay after a game for batting practice?? The biggest problem with the offensive: Everyone swinging for the HR. Suarez is not going to home run his way out of his slump. He should be trying to take everything to right field right now. I would have every left handed batter bunt with the shift on. Get the defense out of the shift and bunt our way out of the slump. Finally, I hate to say this but with Votto leading off, if he walks he does indeed clog up the base paths.

  18. Yimmy

    Without Senzel in the lineup is the problem. Until they bat Senzel Castellanos Moustakas 345 this team isn’t going anywhere move Votto and Suárez down to the 67 hole and this offense will explode.

  19. Don

    When a team scored 4.16 runs a game (23rd in MLB) and allows 4.55 runs a game (30th) there will not be much winning and you have a 20th place team in MLB.

    The Cubs are a good team and the test of the NL central is not very good.

    As has been said, winners find a way, others play “not to lose” and do not win.

    It takes an change in approach attitude.

    Suarez (do not think it is health, His K rate is the about the same as 2019)
    2020 – 24 games, 27 K’s = 182Ks in 162 game
    2019 – 159 games, 189 K
    2018 – 143 games, 142 K
    2017 – 156 games, 137K

    We thought Turner Ward was why the offense was bad in 2019, the 2020 offense and hitting is worse.

    It is a sad (but maybe realistic) thought but maybe Turner was actually getting the maximum possible out of the players.

  20. Rob

    Sorry guys. But sad on a lot of fronts. Talking about Antone and other AA guys who are the future of the team and not the present. Sounds like a rebuilding, up and coming team. Hello. This is a vet laden, pitching rich club with a goodly number of talent with one year contracts. We are not young by any stretch of the imagination. We are not rebuilding or semi rebuilding clubs like the Pirates, Cards, Tigers, or Royals. Our youth are guys like Lorenzen, Senzel, Mahle, R. Anton e and and Stephenson, etc. The time for this team is now. Hey, we were talking trading Lodolo and Senzel for 2 years of Lindor. We sure in the heck are not going backwards by all of a sudden deciding to play Antone and Garcia instead of Descalfani, Gray, and Castellanos. So we can talk about how those guys are going to be good in 2022. Better change the manager before it is too late.

    • Melvin

      Yep. BEFORE it’s too late. Getting close.