The Reds entered play on Friday having not scored in 23 consecutive innings. David Bell put out a lineup that featured Matt Davidson, Curt Casali and Christian Colon in the heart of the order. The Reds of course scored 6 runs in the 2nd inning, started off by a Kyle Farmer RBI-double and capped with a Matt Davidson 3-run bomb. Trevor Bauer continued his dominance, and he is a legit early season NL Cy Young candidate. The three game losing streak is over.

Final R H E
Milwaukee Brewers (5-6) 3 5 0
Cincinnati Reds (6-8) 8 9 0
W: Bauer (2-0) L: Lauer (0-1)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Matt Davidson’s 3-run home run with 2 outs in the 2nd inning, giving the Reds a 6-0 lead. That play increased the Reds probability of winning by 14.6% (from 76.7% to 91.3%).

Players of the Game

Trevor Bauer: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 12 K, 2.20 FIP

How good has Trevor Bauer been? He has started off 2020 by allowing 2 runs in 19.1 innings (0.93 ERA) with 32 strikeouts and just 4 walks.

Positives

Matt Davidson had two hits, including a 3-run home run. Davidson does have a career .796 OPS vs LHP (.882 in 113 PA last year), so it really shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that he is a solid hitter against lefties.

Nick Castellanos just had another casual two more extra base hits (2B & HR). He now has 16 RBI’s through the Reds first 14 games.

Eugenio Suarez reached based twice (1 hit, 1 walk). Jesse Winker had 2 hits and now has a 4-game hit streak. That is obviously a very welcome sign. The Reds really need those guys. Hopefully this is a sign of good things to come.

Negatives

The injury bug continues to hit the Reds. Nick Senzel had to leave with a groin strain. It looked the same thing happened to Pedro Strop. David Bell said that Mike Moustkas is out until at least Tuesday. Uncle.

The Reds bullpen just couldn’t have a clean night. Lucas Sims gave up a 2-run bomb to Christian Yelich. He did have to rush to enter the game after Strop left hurt.

Not so random thoughts………..

Up Next:

Reds at Brewers
Saturday, 7:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Anthony DeSclafani (0.00 ERA) vs Brett Anderson (6.00 ERA)

26 Responses

  1. Andy

    Just a thought…quarter of way through season, Reds have a CY young contender and MVP contender, both ready to hit free agency. It is looking like this team will be expensive to keep together. And they are 6-8.

    • Sliotar

      Castellanos has a Reds contract for next season, at $14M, with an opt-out after this season, and another opt-out after next season.

      Pre-pandemic, Bauer stated he wanted to sign 1-year deals.

      The pandemic and how far the Reds can go may encourage both of them to be back in 2020, who knows.

      • Indy Red Man

        I don’t know why he would accept 14 mil? He’s much better then Kris Bryant at this point and KB makes 18.6 mil. I don’t get into the financial aspect of it normally, but I would think NC would need $60/mil for 3 atleast. He’ll be 29 next March so his peak years are running out quickly. I can’t see why he would play for 14 mil, but then I was 90% certain that the Cubs would keep him after the way he hit for them.

        I don’t understand why the Cubs don’t have NC or Bryce Harper for that matter in the middle of their lineup. Their revenue has to be off the charts! You watch a Cubs game in SF and they have 6k people there in Cubs gear. You don’t see that with the Reds or Phillies.

      • Doug Gray

        I think the argument is that since teams claim they’re all going to lose money because of no fans this year, and there’s no guarantee how next year is going to play out, that the option to go with is take the money you know is there, and hope things turn around financially and teams are more willing to spend the next offseason and you cash in then.

      • Sliotar

        Feels like it would all depend on FA market, and whether fans are going to be allowed back fully in 2021.

        MLB has stated that they don’t see fully “back to normal” revenue-wise until the 2023 season.

        Maybe the smartest play is to take $14M, opt-out next winter and do much better than 3/60.

        Maybe he opts-out and re-does a new deal with the Reds.
        So far, he is worth considering breaking the bank for, and matching up with the cost-controlled SP.

      • Old-school

        Castellanos will have 2 opt-outs and 3 years 48 million on the table when the season ends.

        Reds could offer to buy out his opt-outs at 6 million a piece and offer 3/60 for 21/22/23.

        Winker OBP is now .372 for the season.

    • Hal

      Thinking the same thing, the FO needs the team to get red hot or very cold over the next 3+weeks. If it is the latter, there are some amazing trade chips and you have to get those trades right. If we get hot, all bets are off and maybe you even consider adding a piece.

  2. Sliotar

    Lots of big, obvious positives … here’s a little one ….

    Winker starting vs a LHP and getting a hit.

    2-3 years from now, Winker is going to need to be an everyday player for this team, even if it’s as a DH.

    Good teams develop players and win at the same team (Cardinals).

  3. Melvin

    I’m just glad we won….no matter how much it doesn’t make sense. 🙂

  4. Keith

    I am stunned at all the various ways Senzel gets hurt. Seems like he finds something new every 3-4 days.

    Great win by the good guys. Amazing that we have two legitimate Cy Young candidates in Gray and Bauer. They make me wish we were playing 162.

    I am surprised Payton couldn’t make this team. There seem to be a number of borderline talents.

    • Mark Moore

      The finger was a fluke. The groin is a concern. They can end up in the “nagging injury” category very quickly.

      • Keith

        And there was an elbow or other strain before that. I don’t buy into the idea that he’s necessarily fragile and love having the guy in the lineup, but it is amazing to me how often the guy gets hurt.

  5. Mark Moore

    Trevor Bauer likely isn’t coming back. But we knew that. Big question is which team will want to do only the 1-year contract he keeps talking about … and will that happen vs. his agent talking him into something else. I get he’s looking to be the “ultimate hired gun” and find a winning team chance every year. Have to believe that puts the kibosh on the Yankees and Dodgers, but who knows (assuming they don’t want 1-year deals like that).

    Nick C may be a different story. He has a secured contract and, while his value right now is definitely high, 2021 will be #embracetheweirdpart2 and there is still the collective bargaining fiasco looming. He would have the money in his pocket plus the security of a few more years. And he has the same opt-out in a year. I see it as a 50/50 shot.

    I do love the intensity they both show. I’m seeing signs of leadership which is good. I’m hoping that’s contagious no matter what.

  6. Klugo

    Pretty much count on the bullpen giving so at least 2 per game right now.

    Will be very interesting to see how the tenures of Bauer and Castellanos will play out. Will we trade them? Will we resign them? Castellanos is the best Reds hitter I’ve seen since prime Votto.

  7. Roger Garrett

    Great team win.Lots of guys getting it done early in the game,staking Bauer to the big lead.If there is any hope for Nick and Bauer returning,it starts with the TEAM winning this year and going in to the playoffs and winning some games.The money is always a concern of course but I want to believe that players want to play on winning teams first and foremost.We shall see but I see no chance of either returning to a losing team.This year may be a throw away year for some clubs but for us it can set us up for the future or keep us in the past.

  8. Tom Mitsoff

    I didn’t get to watch Friday night’s game because I’m in the Milwaukee market and therefore blacked out. But I hope Farmer gets another start tonight at shortstop against another lefthander. I was anticipating that Galvis would be very good on defense, enough to offset his weak bat. But so far, that’s not the case. No reason at this point not to give Farmer a good look. Please share your thoughts on how Farmer looked Friday night at shortstop.

    • Old-school

      I missed some innings so nothing stood out good or bad with Farmer. I suspect he will be at 2b today.galvis SS, Davidson DH, Ervin LF and Shogo CF.

    • Melvin

      Hey Tom. I was only able to listen to the game. I will say Galvis has looked to me to have a sore arm and also may be a little heavy for SS. What are you thinking is the best option besides Galvis at short? Farmer or Garcia?

      • Tom Mitsoff

        It’s Farmer if he can make the plays and the throws, because he has experience. Let me add that he has to contribute offensively at a level better than Galvis. Garcia is certainly the guy for the future, and he might be with the team this year if it becomes clear that neither Galvis or Farmer can hold down shortstop adequately for a team that hopes to be in contention.

      • Melvin

        Yeah. That sounds wise. I guess we’ll just have to see. To me neither has a SS body. I know we’ve been concentrating more on offense lately and willing to give up some defense for it. However SS is not one of those places it’s good to give up defense. I know you’ve stated that in the past in our sim world conversations. We both know it’s out of our hands though. I think David Bell will ride out Galvis most of the time regardless unless of injury. I also believe we’ll find out eventually Galvis has been dealing with a sore arm. From what I’ve seen too he doesn’t quite look as good this year as last when he was playing 2B. I know I’m going to bring up some controversy in saying this but “IF” Cleveland is willing to give up Lindor and “IF” they still think Senzel is valuable enough, I’d pull that trade to get him for this year and next. Just think about what he’d add to our lineup. It could very well put us over the hump and make us WS contenders. Chances to win the WS, as we all well know, don’t come around offen. IMO if we get the chance we need to go for it. What’s your opinion on that?

    • Bred

      If you use a VPN, I believe you can mask your location. I use ExpressVPN, Norton has one also. There are free ones, but I don’t trust those. I’m in TX so no need to use it for MLB.TV. In a prior post I stated that I thought it would work and another poster said it worked for him. I always use a VPN while shopping or banking as it is an added level of security.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        I have a VPN but never thought to try it for this. I will try it tonight. 🙂

  9. Bred

    Bauer is eligible for a QA, right? Does a player with an opt out qualify for a QA? I am thinking not.