Tonight will be the second game of a home-and-home 4-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (5-5) and the Cleveland Indians (5-6). It’s the final game that will be played at Great American Ballpark between the two teams before they both head to Cleveland for a match up on Wednesday and Thursday to decide who gets the Ohio Cup Trophy for 2020.
Starting Lineups
Cleveland Indians
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Cincinnati Reds
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| Cesar Hernandez – 2B | Shogo Akiyama – LF |
| Jose Ramirez – 3B | Joey Votto – 1B |
| Francisco Lindor – SS | Nick Castellanos – RF |
| Carlos Santana – 1B | Mike Moustakas – 2B |
| Franmil Reyes – DH | Eugenio Suarez – 3B |
| Bradley Zimmer – RF | Jesse Winker – DH |
| Jordan Luplow – LF | Nick Senzel – CF |
| Sandy Leon – C | Freddy Galvis – SS |
| Oscar Mercado – CF | Tucker Barnhart – C |
| Shane Bieber – SP | Tyler Mahle – SP |
Cleveland isn’t pulling any punches as six hitters in their lineup will begin the day from the left side of the plate against Tyler Mahle (see below for why that’s probably not a good sign). The Reds get Nick Senzel back in the lineup today after missing the game last night with a finger injury suffered on a double two days ago. Cincinnati, like Cleveland, also has six lefties in the lineup to begin their night against right-hander Shane Bieber.
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB% | K% |
| Tyler Mahle | 4.0 | 4.50 | 1.75 | 5.6% | 22.2% |
| Shane Bieber | 14.0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 2.0% | 54.0% |
| Links: Tyler Mahle Stats | Shane Bieber Stats | |||||
Tyler Mahle
There were very different versions of Tyler Mahle in the 2019 season with the Reds. He was much stronger in the first half than in the second half, and he was also much better against right-handed hitters than left-handed hitters. He wasn’t expected to be in the rotation to begin the season, but with Anthony DeSclafani having to miss his first start of the season, Mahle stepped in and was solid, giving up two earned in 4.0 innings the first time through the rotation. With Wade Miley now on the injured list, Mahle remains in the Reds rotation and will get his second start of the season this evening.
Splits
| Split | IP | ERA | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Home | 49.1 | 5.66 | 11 | 10.6% | 25.2% | .253 | .341 | .453 |
| Away | 80.1 | 4.82 | 14 | 3.3% | 21.9% | .273 | .303 | .460 |
| 1st Half | 92.2 | 4.47 | 18 | 8.7% | 25.4% | .251 | .307 | .444 |
| 2nd Half | 37.0 | 6.81 | 7 | 5.4% | 18.0% | .299 | .341 | .487 |
Home runs at Great American Ballpark were a real problem for Tyler Mahle as he gave up 11 of them in just 49.1 innings pitched at home in 2019. His walk rate was also significantly higher at home than it was on the road – perhaps due to feeling the need to be extra careful within the strikezone, leading to missing the edges a bit more than on the road.
In the second half of the season he didn’t pitch nearly as much. Following his start after the All-Star break he was placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain. He’s miss the next month before returning and being optioned to Triple-A for a little less than two weeks. He was recalled when the rosters expanded in September and made six starts in the month – with three of them being quite good, and the other three that were quite bad. When he did pitch in the second half, though, his strikeout rate dipped considerably.
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| vsRHH | 298 | 70 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 4.4% | 25.5% | .252 | .294 | .396 |
| vsLHH | 258 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 15 | 8.1% | 20.5% | .282 | .345 | .530 |
This split could be the biggest issue for Tyler Mahle tonight. Left-handed hitters just crush him. And Cleveland’s can run out a lot of quality left-handed bats in their lineup.
Pitch Usage and Value
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Slider | Splitter | Curve | Cutter | |
| Velo (’19) | 93.7 | N/A | N/A | 87.5 | 80.8 | 90.4 |
| 2019 Usage | 57% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 23% | 7% |
| 2020 Usage | 57% | 3% | 29% | 7% | 4% | 0% |
| Value/100 | 0.26 | N/A | N/A | 1.64 | 0.02 | -3.78 |
| MLB Rank | 55 | N/A | N/A | 2 | 40 | 44 |
| MLB Rank among 130 pitchers with 100 IP in 2019 | ||||||
You’ll notice that for Tyler Mahle I’ve included his pitch usage for last season as well as this season. There’s a reason for that. This season, at least in his first start, Mahle went to a slider that he didn’t throw in 2019. The curveball still showed up a few times in his first start, but by-and-large it was replaced with the slider which came in about 5 MPH harder (85.5 MPH in start #1).
What’s a little more interesting is how the pitch breakdown happened in his only start of 2020. Against right-handed hitters, Mahle went fastball 58% of the time and slider 42% of the time. He didn’t throw any other type of pitch to righties. Lefties, however, got 60% fastball, 7% curve, 22% slider, and 11% splitter. Keep an eye on the pitch usage tonight.
Shane Bieber
An All-Star as a 24-year-old last season, Shane Bieber was good. He went 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA (147 ERA+( while throwing 214.1 innings with 40 walks and 259 strikeouts. He finished 4th in the Cy Young voting in the league, while leading the league in complete games, shutouts, and walk rate. Through two starts this season he’s made last season look terrible. The right-handed starter has thrown 14.0 innings while allowing no runs, walking one batter, and he’s struck out 27 of the 50 batters that he’s faced.
Splits
| Split | IP | ERA | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Home | 111.1 | 3.64 | 16 | 5.6% | 29.1% | .257 | .305 | .428 |
| Away | 103.0 | 2.88 | 15 | 3.5% | 31.4% | .199 | .231 | .353 |
| 1st Half | 112.1 | 3.45 | 17 | 5.1% | 31.5% | .214 | .260 | .393 |
| 2nd Half | 102.0 | 3.09 | 14 | 4.1% | 28.7% | .246 | .282 | .392 |
The splits for Shane Bieber tell the story of a good pitcher. While he pitched better away from his home ballpark, he was good at home and great on the road. Like most pitchers in 2019, there were some home runs allowed no matter where he pitched. Unlike most other guys, he mitigated the runs on those by walking almost no one.
The story is similar when it comes to his first and second half splits. He was a little better in the second half in terms of ERA, but opponents hit for a better average, and had a better on-base percentage and OPS in the second half. Both splits were very strong, though. He’s good.
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| vsRHH | 451 | 99 | 20 | 1 | 13 | 4.4% | 29.3% | .231 | .271 | .374 |
| vsLHH | 408 | 87 | 17 | 0 | 18 | 4.9% | 31.1% | .228 | .271 | .414 |
Right-handers, left-handers – it didn’t really matter last season for Shane Bieber as he didn’t show struggles against either of them. His walk rate and strikeout rate were elite against both, and they had an OPS of .644 and .685 against him. Lefties did have the edge in power, so if you are going to find an advantage – even if it’s a small one – it’s going to be here.
Pitch Usage and Value
| 4-Seam | Change | Slider | Curve | |
| Velo | 93.4 | 87.9 | 85.2 | 82.9 |
| Usage | 46% | 7% | 27% | 21% |
| Value/100 | 1.02 | -0.37 | 1.29 | 0.44 |
| MLB Rank | 20 | 69 | 24 | 25 |
| MLB Rank among 130 pitchers with 100 IP in 2019 | ||||
The good news is that Shane Bieber has a below-average pitch with his change up. The bad news for Reds hitters is that he uses it far less than any other offering that he throws, and those other three offerings are all good ones. Both the slider and the fastball are well above-average in terms of their 2019 value, and the curveball wasn’t quite as good but still better than average.
Late addition to this section, which isn’t reflected in the table above – but I’m not editing it – Bieber is also now throwing a cutter this year. The pitch comes in around the 87-90 MPH range and he’s thrown it 12% of the time – almost entirely cutting that percentage away from his slider while the other rates have been pretty similar as they were in 2019.
When and Where
- Game time: 6:10pm ET
- Where: Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark
- Watch: Fox Sports Ohio, SportsTime Ohio, MLB Network (out of market only), MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: Partly cloudy, 76°, 10% chance of rain.
NL Central Standings
| Team | Wins | Losses | GB |
| Cubs | 8 | 2 | – |
| Reds | 5 | 5 | 3.0 |
| Brewers | 3 | 4 | 3.5 |
| Cardinals | 2 | 3 | 3.5 |
| Pirates | 2 | 8 | 6.0 |
News and Notes
The Miami Marlins are back online
There were no new positive tests today from the Miami Marlins and they will get back on the field tonight as they take on the Baltimore Orioles.
Marlins have no new positives and they are good to go. Game tonight vs. Orioles. They do have 30 players and are excited to play. On to talk Marlins on #MLBCentral upcoming. @MLBNetwork
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) August 4, 2020
The St. Louis Cardinals could be back by Friday
#STLCards have no new positives today in tests today. Need another clean round before release from Milwaukee hotel but this is very good news. Possible to have full schedule Friday.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) August 4, 2020
Don’t mess with Nolan Ryan….
On this date in 1993 Robin Ventura learned a valuable and embarrassing lesson.