The Cincinnati Reds (1-1) will look to rebound today in the final game of the series against the Detroit Tigers (1-1) after blowing a 3-1 lead on Saturday night. Trevor Bauer has some tough performances to follow after the work done by Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo in the first two games of the season.
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB% | K% |
| Trevor Bauer | 213.0 | 4.48 | 1.25 | 9.0% | 27.8% |
| Spencer Turnbull | 148.1 | 4.61 | 1.44 | 9.0% | 22.3% |
| Stats from the 2019 Season | |||||
Trevor Bauer
After being acquired by Cincinnati at the trade deadline last season, Trevor Bauer struggled to keep the ball in the ballpark. As a result of that his ERA jumped from 3.79 with Cleveland to 6.39 in 10 starts with the Reds. His walk and strikeout rates were both better with Cincinnati, but his home run rate made a huge difference.
Splits
| Split | IP | ERA | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Home | 100.1 | 4.66 | 22 | 8.9% | 29.9% | .216 | .308 | .453 |
| Away | 112.2 | 4.31 | 12 | 9.1% | 25.9% | .242 | .320 | .407 |
| 1st Half | 132.0 | 3.61 | 17 | 9.2% | 26.8% | .214 | .305 | .390 |
| 2nd Half | 81.0 | 5.89 | 17 | 8.8% | 29.4% | .256 | .330 | .489 |
It’s tough to make much of his splits for home/road since he only made 10 starts with the Reds. He only made four home starts with Cincinnati, but had a 4.15 ERA in 26.0 innings with six homers allowed. In six starts on the road he threw 30.1 innings with six homers allowed and an 8.31 ERA. Small sample sizes on both ends of that one.
That said, the first half and second half numbers for Trevor Bauer are dramatic. His ERA jumped up by more than two full runs. A lot of that was a much higher home run rate, but his BABIP against also jumped from .269 to .325.
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| vsRHH | 491 | 94 | 27 | 3 | 14 | 8.3% | 31.0% | .216 | .294 | .388 |
| vsLHH | 420 | 90 | 16 | 4 | 20 | 9.8% | 24.1% | .247 | .339 | .478 |
When it comes to splits against hitters from both sides of the plate, Bauer is much better against right-handed hitters. His walk rate is lower, his strikeout rate is much higher, and his home run rate is much lower. Lefties just make more contact, and they hit for a lot more power – or at least they did in 2019 – against Bauer.
Pitch Usage and Value
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Slider | Change | Curve | Cutter | |
| Velo | 94.8 | 95.0 | 79.8 | 86.3 | 79.4 | 84.8 |
| Usage | 38% | 4% | 16% | 20% | 14% | 8% |
| Value/100 | -0.33 | 1.68 | -0.21 | -0.96 | 0.88 | 0.34 |
| MLB Rank | 82 | 9 | 62 | 80 | 16 | 18 |
| MLB Rank among 130 pitchers with 100 IP in 2019 | ||||||
Trevor Bauer seems to throw everything but the kitchen sink. Well, that and Alex Blandino’s knuckleball. On one side, he’s bringing an above-average 2-seamer, curve, and cutter to the table. On the other side of that, of the six pitches he throws, those three account for just 26% of the pitches that he throws. The three pitches that he threw most frequently in 2019 were all of negative value according to Fangraphs Pitch Values.
Spencer Turnbull
The now 3rd-year right-handed pitcher has 33 career starts under his belt (and 1 relief appearance as a rookie in 2018). Despite posting a better than league average ERA+ of 104 (4.61 ERA), he went 3-17 and led (?) the league in losses (and hit batters).
Splits
| Split | IP | ERA | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Home | 78.2 | 4.92 | 8 | 8.5% | 24.1% | .283 | .350 | .446 |
| Away | 69.2 | 4.26 | 6 | 9.5% | 20.1% | .248 | .349 | .374 |
| 1st Half | 89.2 | 3.31 | 8 | 8.7% | 21.5% | .250 | .332 | .390 |
| 2nd Half | 58.2 | 6.60 | 6 | 9.4% | 23.3% | .293 | .376 | .448 |
Spencer Turnbull was better on the road last season than he was at home. His walk rate was similar, but his strikeout rate was lower on the road by a decent amount. The biggest difference seemed to come down to a 61 point difference in BABIP with a .362 mark against him at home versus just a .301 mark on the road.
Like Trevor Bauer, Spencer Turnbull saw his ERA make a big jump in the second half. For Turnbull, his ERA nearly doubled. Much like his home and road splits, a lot of the difference came down to a huge swing in BABIP. In the first half it was .307, while in the second half it jumped up to .373.
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| vsRHH | 315 | 64 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 9.8% | 26.0% | .234 | .328 | .380 |
| vsLHH | 341 | 90 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 8.2% | 18.8% | .298 | .370 | .444 |
Left-handed hitters had more success against Spencer Turnbull than right-handed hitters did in 2019. Lefties didn’t walk as often as righties, but they struck out significantly less while also hitting for more average and more power.
Pitch Usage and Value
| 4-Seam | 2-Seam | Slider | Change | Curveball | |
| Velo | 93.9 | 94.4 | 86.7 | 86.8 | 80.6 |
| Usage | 45.4% | 19.4% | 20.2% | 2.9% | 12.1% |
| Value/100 | 1.17 | -2.15 | 0.04 | N/A | -1.55 |
| MLB Rank | 16 | 81 | 54 | N/A | 86 |
| MLB Rank among 130 pitchers with 100 IP in 2019 | |||||
Spencer Turnbull has a pretty good 4-seamer, and his slider is about league average. But his 2-seamer and his curveball are about as far down the list that you can get (while there were 130 pitches that qualified for the ERA title in 2019, not every pitcher throws every pitch so there pitch rankings don’t go 1-130). He will also occasionally mix in a change up, but it’s a rare showing.
Starting Lineups
Detroit Tigers |
Cincinnati Reds |
| Niko Goodrum – SS | Jesse Winker – DH |
| Jonathan Schoop – 2B | Joey Votto – 1B |
| Miguel Cabrera – DH | Eugenio Suarez – 3B |
| C.J. Cron – 1B | Nick Castellanos – RF |
| Christin Stewart – LF | Josh VanMeter – 2B |
| Harold Castro – 3B | Shogo Akiyama – LF |
| Victor Reyes – RF | Freddy Galvis – SS |
| Grayson Greiner – C | Travis Jankowski – CF |
| JaCoby Jones – CF | Curt Casali – C |
| Spencer Turnbull – SP | Trevor Bauer – SP |
With a right-handed pitcher on the mound, David Bell goes to the lefties again as Spencer Turnbull shows some significant splits with the handedness of hitters. At least against Turnbull the Reds will have lefties Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Josh VanMeter, Shogo Akiyama, Travis Jankowski (late replacement), and Freddy Galvis in there to try and get the offense going early and often.
Nick Senzel scratched from the lineup that was originally posted.
When and Where
- Game time: 1:10pm ET
- Where: Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark
- Watch: Fox Sports Ohio, Fox Sports Detroit, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: Sunny and 86° with 0% chance of rain.
NL Central Standings
| Team | Wins | Losses | GB |
| Cardinals | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Reds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Cubs | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brewers | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pirates | 0 | 2 | 2 |
News and Notes
Mike Moustakas scratched from the lineup
Hold your breath on this one….
#Reds David Bell: Mike Moustakas "woke up not feeling well… that's all we know" He was scratched from the lineup
— C. ???????????? (@ctrent) July 26, 2020
Update: Mike Moustakas has now been placed on the injured list
Also worth noting, from C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic
FYI, I do not know anything more about Moustakas, but this is from the MLB operations manual:
6.1.8 COVID-19 Related Injured List
Placement on the COVID-19 Related Injured List does not require a confirmed positive test for COVID-19.— C. ???????????? (@ctrent) July 26, 2020
Stat of the Day
After 17 strikeouts on Saturday, the Cincinnati Reds are tried with the Los Angeles Dodgers for most strikeouts on the year. The difference here is that that Dodgers have played three games this season, while the Reds have only played two.