| Final | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
| Mets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Reds | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Shogo Akiyama’s one-out single in the bottom of the 10th inning scored Steady Freddy Galvis from third base with the winning run, sending a sim Great American Ball Park crowd of 30,804 into a sim frenzy as the Cincinnati Reds (51-49) defeated the New York Mets (44-56) by a score of 4-3.
That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.
Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:
Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!
Galvis led off the bottom of the 10th with a single, his fourth hit of the game. Winning Redleg Nation commenter/manager Mark Moore then flashed the steal sign, which Galvis executed successfully. Pinch-hitter Curt Casali made an out, but successfully advanced Galvis to third base on a ground ball. With Galvis at third, he scored easily on the game-winning hit by Akiyama.
New York took the early first-inning 2-0 lead against Luis Castillo, but the sim Reds tied it with single runs in the third and fifth on sacrifice flies by Eugenio Suarez and Mark Payton. The Mets recaptured the lead in the top of the sixth on three two-out singles, but Cincinnati tied it in the bottom of the eighth off Mets flamethrower Dellin Betances on a Joey Votto leadoff single, a Tyler Stephenson walk and a Galvis RBI single.
Four sim Reds relievers were keys to the victory, holding the Metropolitans hitless and scoreless over their final four at-bats.
The Reds won despite leaving 13 runners on base. Along with their 11 hits, they received eight walks from Mets pitchers.
Nick Castellanos was injured while grounding out in the second inning, and will miss the next three games.
Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:
C-Subbed Defensively (CF) For Davis In 8th Inning
E-Pinch Hit For Betances In 9th Inning
A-Subbed Defensively (RF) For Castellanos In 3rd Inning
B-Pinch Hit For Castillo In 6th Inning
D-Pinch Hit For Kuhnel In 8th Inning
F-Pinch Hit For Garrett In 10th Inning
Standings following the July 21 games:
| NL Central | WON | LOST | PCT | GB |
| Brewers | 53 | 47 | .530 | 0.0 |
| Cardinals | 54 | 48 | .529 | 0.0 |
| Cubs | 53 | 48 | .520 | 0.5 |
| Reds | 51 | 49 | .510 | 2.0 |
| Pirates | 38 | 62 | .380 | 15.0 |
Cincinnati’s win allowed them to gain on NL Central co-leaders Milwaukee and St. Louis, who both lost.
Of course, today marks the end of the day-by-day simulations by Strat-O-Matic of the 162-game 2020 season. Since the 60-game regular season begins for real later this week, Strat-O-Matic will simulate the remaining games of the sim season Wednesday. We’ll post a wrapup article here at Redleg Nation when those results become available.
The Redleg Nation commenter/managers have put this team in a position where anything is possible — two games out of first place with 62 sim games left. And, just 2.5 games out of the second wild-card berth.
Statistics
If the full-sim-season-to-date statistics become available any time later today, I will add them here. It would be interesting to compare the 100-game and the 162-game numbers.
My Strat-O-Matic contact told me in email today that they check the Redleg Nation articles just about daily, and they were excited to see the amount of comments. “Your readers are certainly engaged in all of this,” he wrote.
He also said they are going to sim the 60-game season sometime soon, and he will send me the results when they are available.
Batting and pitching player stats by team
Final Redleg Nation commenter/manager records:
| Commenter/ “Manager” |
WON | LOST | PCT |
| Peter Onte | 2 | 1 | .667 |
| Jon Davis | 9 | 5 | .643 |
| BK | 9 | 6 | .600 |
| James Owens | 4 | 3 | .571 |
| Melvin | 6 | 5 | .545 |
| Gonzo Reds | 6 | 6 | .500 |
| Redsfan4life | 5 | 5 | .500 |
| RedsEuphoria | 1 | 1 | .500 |
| Tomn | 1 | 1 | .500 |
| Doug Gray | 1 | 1 | .500 |
| Don | 3 | 6 | .333 |
| Mark Moore | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| Tom Mitsoff | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| AirborneJayJay | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Jeff | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| VaRedsFan | 0 | 1 | .000 |
A Personal Note
I love writing, I love the Reds, and I love writing about the Reds. This sim series has been one of those situations in life which you probably have heard of or even experienced: When you’re doing work you love, it’s not like work at all.
When spring training was canceled and it was clear there was not going to be a regular season for some time if at all, I noted that Strat-O-Matic announced they were going to do a day-by-day simulation of the 2020 season.
I had seen Doug Gray’s tweets about how difficult it was for him to generate income from his websites via the usual method of digital ad impressions. With no baseball being played, people were visiting the websites much less. I pitched him on the idea of daily stories on these sim games in hopes it might help draw more people in. Doug has treated his writers very well, and I wanted to do what I could to return the favor.
We had no idea if it would catch on among the Redleg Nation readership, but after a couple of sim game stories were posted, Strat-O-Matic — having seen the articles here at Redleg Nation — reached out and asked if we needed anything from them to enhance the articles. We replied and asked if our readers could in effect be managers and submit a lineup for each day’s game. They said yes, and things began to take off.
Each day during this process, I would check my email over and over awaiting the daily results. Yeah, I know, what a geek. 🙂 Along with great enjoyment for me, I am so glad that this endeavor has provided some fun and distraction for some of our Redleg Nation readers. We’ve had a core of about 10 to 12 readers who became involved on a daily basis. I feel a true kindred spirit with these regulars, and I’d like to specifically thank BK, Don, Gonzo Reds, James Owens, Jon “Sparky” Davis, Mark Moore, Melvin and Redsfan4life for your avid and loyal participation. It’s my belief that we learned about many of the issues that real managers have to consider when they build a lineup and that the effort was truly a team effort, with everyone supporting one another. Everyone who sat in the commenter/manager “seat” for more than one game recorded a victory for his personal mental trophy case.
When this started, I never thought for one second that it would go for 100 games. It’s been a joy and a pleasure, gentlemen. And one more thanks to Doug Gray for agreeing to give this idea a try.
Now … let’s get things going for real, and hopefully enjoy a season when the Reds are in the race all the way!
congrats mark on getting that 1st win.
I big thank you to Tom for doing this (and Doug for this site). This has given me something to put my brain into crunching numbers that do not have to do with work in this crazy time of pretty much never leaving home with the work from home and the other restrictions.
Congrats to all the Sim Reds participants.
Congrats to Mark and our sim Reds. Finishing two above .500 and only two back of the division lead AND the wild card (lost column) is not too bad after some struggles early on. We pushed hard to be in first while we still had control and almost pulled it off with a pretty good run. We’ll see what Strato does with the rest of the season. We should at least be in it until the end. It’s been an unexpected pleasure to be able to look forward to this every day without any real baseball. Hats off to Tom for being a great guy who did all of the work for us and to Doug for allowing this. It’s been a pleasure talking with all the rest of you “managers” as well. What I get from our conversations is that most of us don’t live in Cincy but have been lifelong Reds fans. It would be great, when there is finally fans in the stands again, if somehow it could work out with everyone’s schedule, for us all to meet at a Reds game some time in the future. As far as the real season coming up I have some good feelings about it. A 1990 wire to wire is even possible. 🙂
I vote Casto to DL, Schebler up. What? We’re done? Man…
Good job Mark!
It’s been fun, hope the real thing is as well!
Sure glad we’re done and Schebler is gone anyway. Wouldn’t want to debate about NOT bringing him up. lol
Yeah obviously joking. I would have suggested Aquino which would have been more of a debate, Will be interesting to see if he makes it back up to the big club in sim and in real life this season,
From what I’m hearing in summer camp he will in real life but who knows about the sim world. I guess we’ll find out soon. I’m not sure if we’ll hear the whole results of the sim season tomorrow or not.
We used Peyton quite a lot with some success and he’s not even going to make the team having been offered back to the A’s. Maybe strato sim probably brought Aquino up for him during the rest of the season. Can’t wait to see the results…
Looking at Strat-O-Matic for the final 162 games played, SIm Reds Finished 81-81, 10 games behind the Cubs and 8 games out of the WC2 spot.
Noone else from Central made the playoffs.
I save the player stats after 100 games yesterday to compare to the 162 games final stats.
Some interesting moves that did not occur looking at the hitters.
Barnhart did not play another game
Casali played in 51
Stephensen played in 9
Which means neither Pinch hit the rest of the year.
Lorenzen had 9 more ABs and no walks
Suarez,Galvis, Votto, Moose, Castellanos played all 62, based on the PAs below, looks like they started every game.
Akiyama played 60, 262 ABs
Winker played 57, 211 ABs
Payton played in 43, 52 ABs
Senzel played in 44, 53 ABs
Ervin played in 37, 86 ABs
Have not looked at pitching yet.
.500 10 games back of the Cubs….I don’t think so.
Individual pitching stats in the last 62 games
Gray 3-2 in 11 starts, ERA 5.14to5.63, WHIP 1.41to1.46
Bauer 5-5, 13 starts, ERA 3.84to4.17,WHIP1.4 to 1.35
Miley 3-8 in 12 starts,ERA 3.6to4.42,WHIP1.40 to 1.49
Disco went 5-4 in 13 starts, ERA 4.02to4.03, WHIP 1.34 to 1.29
Castillo 6-5 in 13 starts, ERA 5.01 to 4.34, WHIP 1.46 to 1.39
Gray continued to be awful
Miley fell off a cliff
Castillo and Bauer were slightly better
Disco was steady the same all year.
Bullpen
Garrett 26 games, ERA from 4.02 to 3.39, WHIP increased 1.32 to 1.39 while pitching 34 inning
Reed WHIP changed from 1.87 to 1.51 over 25.1 innings
Kuhnel did not make another appearance
Sims 16 games, 28 innings, WHIP change 0.01.
Bowman 13 games, 23 innings, WHIP change 124 to 1.37
Lorenzen 10 games, 16 innings, ERA lowered 5.16 to 4.55, WHIP 1.51 lowered to 1.34
Strop 20 games,33.2 innings,ERA 3.61 to 3.9,WHIP1.19to 1.36
Iglesias 22 games,23.2 innings, ERA 2.53 to 2.04, WHIP1.28to1.16
Stephenson 22 games,33 inning,ERA4.35 to 5.36,WHIP1.50to1.58
Hendrix 5 games, 6 innings
Looks like we made a mistake getting the 14th pitcher as Kuhnel was never used again, Hendrx (6 innings) and Lorenzen (16 innings) were hardly used.
Overall Offense
1st 100 games = 4.81 runs per game
For last 62 = 4.03 runs per game
For 162 games = 4.51 runs per game
Overall defense
1st 100 games = 4.46 runs per game
last 62 = 4.51 runs per game
total 162 games = 4.48 runs per game
Overall pitching
1st 100 games = 4.16 ERA
last 62 = 4.19 ERA
total 162 games = 4.17 ERA
Run Differential
1st 100 games +35
last 62 = -30
all 162 games +5
Defense and Pitcher were close to the same
Our impact on the runs per game with the batting lineups we put together obviously makes a differ in how the team performed.
We as a group significantly over produced runs compared to whatever Strat-O-Matic did with managing the offense and whatever algorithms they used to pick and use for lineups.
Disco and Miley were slightly worse than the projections Doug posted today for the 60 games. While Bauer, Gray and Castillo were awful compared to the projects Doug posted today which are all regressions from 2019. So their cards must have a large regression for previous years.
My Conclusion:
It was fun to do but after looking at these numbers we were fighting an uphill battle against some cards that did not allow for the Sim Reds to meet the real life Reds expectations of 85 to 87 wins which is what most pre-season projections were for this team.
It was fun but disappointing how Strato played it out. I believe our sim Reds would have been better, maybe much better, had we kept the reigns. We were on a roll. Can’t believe they didn’t use the pitching we gave them. Can’t believe they didn’t bring Barnhart back.
We would totally have been better than the way they played it out. We had a learning curve at the beginning but certainly were on the upswing over the last month. Shame we didn’t get a chance to finish but I certainly will trade that for some real baseball!
Yeah. Let the real fun begin. 🙂
Here is the rest of the 62 games win/loss.
Really finish the year 1-6 vs Marlins and Pirates????
Series by Series
Mets 1-1
Rockies 2-1
@Braves 0-4
Rays 1-2
@Phillies 1-2
@Cards 1-2
Cubs 1-1
Phillies 3-1
@RedSox 1-1
@Brewers 3-1
Cards 0-3
Brewers 2-2
Baltimore 3-0
@Cubs 1-2
@Brewers 2-0
@Giants 2-2
RedSox 2-0
Cards 2-2
@Marlins 0-3
@Pirates 1-3
Gane by Game
7/22 NYN 6 CIN 7
7/23 NYN 5 CIN 2
7/24 CON 3 CIN 10
7/25 CON 6 CIN 7
7/26 CON 6 CIN 2
7/27 CIN 3 ATN 7
7/28 CIN 2 ATN 3
7/29 CIN 1 ATN 3
7/30 CIN 2 ATN 5
7/31 TBA 5 CIN 4
8/ 1 TBA 3 CIN 4
8/ 2 TBA 3 CIN 5
8/ 4 CIN 5 PHN 8
8/ 5 CIN 0 PHN 1
8/ 6 CIN 5 PHN 2
8/ 7 CIN 3 SLN 1
8/ 8 CIN 1 SLN 2
8/ 9 CIN 3 SLN 4
8/11 CHN 1 CIN 3
8/12 CHN 1 CIN 4
8/13 PIN 9 CIN 2
8/14 PIN 6 CIN 9
8/15 PIN 3 CIN 4
8/16 PIN 0 CIN 8
8/18 CIN 7 BOA 8
8/19 CIN 5 BOA 4
8/20 CIN 6 MLN 2
8/21 CIN 9 MLN 6
8/22 CIN 6 MLN 10
8/23 CIN 6 MLN 2
8/24 SLN 3 CIN 1
8/25 SLN 1 CIN 0
8/26 SLN 5 CIN 3
8/27 MLN 4 CIN 1
8/28 MLN 7 CIN 14
8/29 MLN 7 CIN 0
8/30 MLN 0 CIN 1
8/31 BAA 2 CIN 9
9/ 1 BAA 5 CIN 15
9/ 2 BAA 5 CIN 6
9/ 4 CIN 3 CHN 4
9/ 5 CIN 6 CHN 3
9/ 6 CIN 5 CHN 12
9/ 8 CIN 8 MLN 4
9/ 9 CIN 5 MLN 4
9/10 CIN 8 SFN 0
9/11 CIN 5 SFN 13
9/12 CIN 2 SFN 3
9/13 CIN 3 SFN 2
9/15 BOA 2 CIN 4
9/16 BOA 4 CIN 5
9/17 SLN 9 CIN 1
9/18 SLN 6 CIN 4
9/19 SLN 2 CIN 4
9/20 SLN 0 CIN 1
9/21 CIN 1 MMN 2
9/22 CIN 1 MMN 10
9/23 CIN 1 MMN 2
9/24 CIN 0 PIN 7
9/25 CIN 2 PIN 4
9/26 CIN 5 PIN 4
9/27 CIN 1 PIN 7
One down, 59 Ws to go! Wire to wire? 🙂