Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Nationals 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 9 0
Reds 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 X 4 10 0

A second-inning two-run home run by Nick Senzel got the Cincinnati Reds (41-42) out to an early lead which they would not relinquish in registering a 4-2 victory over the Washington Nationals (50-33) at Great American Ball Park.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


Winning Redleg Nation commenter/manager Jon “Sparky” Davis started a primarily right-handed batting lineup against Nationals left-hander Patrick Corbin, and that lineup produced four runs over the first four innings. After Senzel’s home run, Eugenio Suarez hit a solo home run in the third inning, his 25th, and switch hitter Freddy Galvis (batting right-handed) singled in Senzel, who had doubled, in the fourth.

Four Reds batters had two hits — Suarez, Senzel, Curt Casali and Galvis — and all were right-handed batters.

Sim Reds starter and winner Wade Miley held the Nationals to only a run and six hits in five and one-third innings. He was followed by Joel Kuhnel, who pitched two-thirds of a scoreless inning to extend his shutout streak to five and two-thirds innings over six appearances. He’s allowed only three hits and no walks, while striking out five.

After today’s sim games, the Brewers took a one percentage point lead in the division over the Cubs and Cardinals. The Reds are three games behind the three teams in fourth place.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

B-Pinch Hit For Corbin In 7th Inning
E-Pinch Hit For Guerra In 9th Inning

A-Pinch Hit For Kuhnel In 6th Inning
C-Pinch Hit For Ervin In 7th Inning
D-Subbed Defensively (RF) For Strop In 8th Inning

Standings following the June 27 games: 

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Brewers 43 38 .531 0.0
Cardinals 44 39 .530 0.0
Cubs 44 39 .530 0.0
Reds 41 42 .494 3.0
Pirates 34 48 .415 9.5

The 2020 schedule has the Reds hosting the Washington Nationals in the rubber game of the three-game set Sunday. Luis Castillo will start for the sim Reds, and right-hander Anibel Sanchez will pitch for the Nationals.

News/Notes from around baseball

One of the things we would have during the season in the game threads was a section comprised of news and notes for the day. While there’s a lot less going on these days in the baseball world than usual for this time of year, there still are some things that are worth highlighting. When there are, we’ll be adding them to these daily simulation threads.

Reds sign more draft picks

The Reds announced that they’ve signed 3rd, 4th, and 5th round draft picks Bryce Bonnin, Mac Wainwright, and Joe Boyle. With the signing of 1st round pick Austin Hendrick yesterday, Cincinnati only has two draft picks remaining to sign.

Cincinnati Reds sign draft picks Bryce Bonnin, Joe Boyle

2020 could start with the Yankees vs Nationals

Joel Sherman and Andrew Marchand of The New York Post are reporting that the one of the first games of the 2020 season will be on July 23rd when the New York Yankees will head to Washington D.C. to take on the defending World Series champion Nationals – “likely in prime time”, according to the story. This is technically not official yet, as the teams themselves need to verify the schedule – which is expected to happen within the next week. July 23rd will not feature a full schedule of games, but this will not be the only game on the day. The other games, however, haven’t been leaked/released yet for the first day of the regular season.

A shortened season is good news for the Reds

Steven Martano of Beyond the Box Score looked at which teams may benefit the most from a shortened 2020 season and among the teams near the top were the Cincinnati Reds. Looking at the increased playoff odds, the Reds saw a jump from 23.1% to 37.6% – the second biggest jump of any team. Only the White Sox jumping from 18.7% to 36.8% was a larger increase.

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

Jon Davis has the priority for Sunday’s lineup since he was the winning manager today. Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Jon Davis 8 4 .667
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
BK 9 5 .643
James Owens 3 2 .600
Redsfan4life 5 4 .556
Gonzo Reds 6 5 .545
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
Don 2 5 .286
Melvin 1 4 .200
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 2 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

30 Responses

  1. Jon Davis

    Current Roster
    (* = player has NO options)
    (+ = LHP or LHB)
    (^ = Switch Hitter)

    Our current 26 man roster is:
    C – *+Barnhart, *Casali
    IF – *+Votto, *+Moustakas, *Suarez, *^Galvis, Rodriguez
    OF – +Akiyama, Lorenzen(16), *Ervin, *Castellanos, +Payton, +Winker, Senzel
    SP – *Bauer, *Desclafani, *Gray, *+Miley, Castillo
    RP – *+Reed, Iglesias, *+Garrett, *Sims, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen, Kuhnel

    Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
    C – Stephenson(Can Return 6/28), Farmer
    IF – Garcia, +Vanmeter, Blandino, *+Dietrich
    OF – Aquino, +Jankowski, *+Schebler
    SP – Mahle, Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
    RP – Bowman, *Jones(Can Return 7/4), Hendrix, Shafer, +Smith

    Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
    C – Chris Okey
    IF – India, Davidson, Colon, Trahan
    OF – +Friedl, +Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, +Hannah, +Siani
    SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
    RP – Thornburg, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Jon, thank you for doing this on a daily basis. It is a valuable resource.

      • Jon Davis

        You are quite welcome I am happy to help.

  2. Tom Mitsoff

    Regarding BK’s question about sending down Robert Stephenson and the chance of losing him because he is out of options, the response from Strat-O-Matic was, “They would indeed be at risk of losing him.”

    • Don

      Tom, I posted this this Saturday AM on Friday’s game.

      Here are a three transaction that are examples from other teams where the player cannot have options and is listed as sent down.
      Can these players be recalled by their team or were they waived so they are off the SIM Team forever? Could the Sim Reds or any other team placed a waiver claim on these players one the day of the transaction being listed?

      June 10
      NYM- OF Yoenis Cespedes activated from IL, 1B Matt Adams sent down
      There is no way which Adams has options, 8 MLB seasons. Is Adams now a Free Agent in this Sim? Can the Sim Reds claim Adams and demote someone so that he could be our LH power hitter off the bench we have been trying to find if we wanted?

      June 13
      TEX- OF Joey Gallo activated from IL. LHP Joe Palumbo called up, OF Scott Heineman and RHP Luis Garcia sent down
      Luis Garcia has 4 of his 7 MLB seasons of 60+ appearances, he has to be out of options? Can he be recalled in the future for the Rangers?

      June 23
      CHC- OF Steven Souza Jr activated from IL. 2B Jason Kipnis and RHP Adbert Alzolay sent down, RHP Brendan Morrow called up
      Kipnis has 9 years of MLB experience, was he waived or can be called up?

      Just wondering if we are being told the same rules as the other teams?

  3. Tom Mitsoff

    FYI, gentlemen, I won’t be around for most of the rest of the day. Family members visiting from Ohio (visiting here in Wisconsin). I will send lineup for Sunday before going to bed tonight.

    • Jon Davis

      Hey Tom same here well almost I am in Florida but have family from Ohio currently here too.

  4. Melvin

    All right Sparky and our Reds! Again, low scoring games are to our advantage. If we just have good pitching and defense our offense more often than not will be enough to pull us through. Big time hats off to Miley. Honestly I wasn’t too comfortable with this start for him. He really came through. The bullpen was outstanding as well. Looks like the AlfRod experiment worked for the second day in a row with the right people PH. I guess Strato was saving Votto in case of a crunch time do or die AB. Cards lost but Cubs and Brews won. Getting more interesting. Brews have had it easy playing the Pirates lately at home. They have to go to the Cubs and Cards next week. Hope they all beat up on each other while we have a good week. We’re on step closer to 1st place. 😉 In regards to Strato’s answer about Stephenson, I don’t want to be critical of Strato as I appreciate the service they’re providing but I have to say it would be very helpful if they were more straight forward and had better explanations about what was going on. I know Tom is busy right now but I’d be interested to know the answer to Don’s question in yesterday’s thread. Anyway, let’s win again! Only 3 games back! It’s crunch time fun. 🙂

  5. Mark Moore

    Well, Shogo is obviously a bum now that he’s not hit in two straight games …

    Seriously, though, we may want to consider giving him an extra day off at some point next week.

    • Melvin

      Hey Mark. I understand your point. It will however be VERY HARD to take our best hitter out when we’re fighting tooth and nail for every game, every run, three games back with only 18 to go. I say put a curfew on him and make him go to bed early for some extra rest. 🙂 Seriously in real life a player wouldn’t want to come out of the lineup with so much on the line. Let’s see what he’s made of. lol

  6. Gonzo Reds

    Throttle monster SIM cards seemed to work today, lucky Miley pitched well and we got something from Senzel for once.

    Melvin I was thinking the same thing in checking our PH order last 2 days, think we’ve got the right bench chemistry finally.

    Guess mostly lefties today and I suggest no Lorenzen…

    C – *+Barnhart
    IF – *+Votto, *+Moustakas, *Suarez, *^Galvis
    OF – +Akiyama, +Payton, +Winker

    • Melvin

      Yes chemistry is very important. I agree.

    • Melvin

      Yes. The only reason to play Lorenzen would be for defense most likely. Probably can’t take Winker out though and Payton isn’t bad defensively either. Lineups are about chemistry too aren’t they? Have to win.

    • Don

      I would suggest Castellanos instead of Payton as Castellanos has been hitting well in June and Payton has not in his very few starts since Akiyama returned. Sanchez splits do not show the need to go all lefties like vs Ross on Friday. See other post below.

      I like the other 7 in the lineup.

  7. James Owens

    Is it possible to get a list if waiver players when they occur. In theory, couldn’t we pick someone up?

  8. Don

    A.Sanchez (8-5) 3.74 vs Castillo (5-5) ERA 5.53
    Sanchez has 2019 splits which slightly favor lefties AVG-+.022,OBP=+.023,SLG=+.049

    Sim Reds have not faced Sanchez in the 1st series with Nats.
    Real Life baseball
    Reds vs Ross in 2019
    Castellanos 2-3
    Senzel 1-3, 2B
    Suarez 0-3
    Votto 1-2
    Winker 2-3, 2B

    Please do not start Lorenzen against right handed pitching.
    Here is his hitting stats for his 16 starts:
    In games with a righty starts he is 4-33
    In games which a lefty starts he is 13-31

    Lineup should be favoring lefties but should play some tight handed hitter that currently are hitting OK like Suarez and Castellanos but go with lefties for the rest of the lineup

  9. Don

    Had lots of rain here this morning so could not do the normal Saturday outside work so I looked at Sim Stats.

    With half the season played (all put 2 teams have played 81 games as on Friday’s games) I decided to look at some team stats for the league.

    After Friday’s games the Sim REDS League Rankings
    Win % (0.488) 17th, 9th in NL,4th in Central

    Run based stats
    Run Differential +27, tied 10th, 4th in NL, 2nd Central (1 behind Cards)
    Runs Scored per game (4.93) 11th, 5th in NL, 3nd in Central
    Runs Allowed per game (4.60) tied 12th, 8th NL, 3rd in Central
    Unearned Runs allowed (28), tied 15th, 8th NL, 3rd in Central

    The Sim Reds are +4 wins below the expected wins based on run differential.

    Offense stats
    BABIP = (H – HR)/(AB – K – HR + SF) (calculated without Sac Fly as not available but all teams would have similar error in the calculation)
    BABIP = 0.323, Tied 8th, 5th NL, 2nd Central
    HR/game = 1.13, 18th, 7th NL, 3rd Central
    K/game = 8.16, 7th lowest,4th NL, 2nd Central

    Other than being below average on HRs the Reds offense is mostly top 10.

    Pitching
    ERA (4.23) tied 13th, 8th NL, 2nd in Central
    WHIP (1.41) tied 16th,9th NL, 2nd Central
    HR/9 In (1.20), tied 18th, 13th NL, 5th Central
    BB/9 In (3.99), 29th, 14th NL, 4th Central
    K/9 In (9.11), 7th, 5th NL, 1st Central

    Reds pitching is not the top 5 or 6 we expected from pre-season. The staff overall is middle of the pack in the league expect for walks. Only team with more walks per game are the Pirates.
    If the Reds pitching walked the league average (3.3) their WHIP would drop 0.1 which would be a top 10 for WHIP. This would be about 1 less opponent getting on base per game would be lower the number of runs scored.

    The walks and the poor defensive range that Start-O told Tom about and my previous analysis that the team give up many more singles (which makes one think infield range) than they should based on pitchers history.

    I do not think there is any way we can impact how many walks the pitching is allowed. Hopefully they will start tending to the Reds 2019 number for BB/game which was 3.4. If it does the team will start winning more games.

    As I looked through all the team stats there are some interesting player stats.

    Jose Peraza is leading the Red Sox in batting average (.358) in 184 PAs (8 walks) with only 16 Strike outs.

    The Tampa Bay Rays are 20th in the league in Runs Scored per game 4.45 while being #1 in runs allowed game 3.49 with only 16 unearned runs which is #3 in the league. The have a 50-33 Record with a +79 run differential. They are winning with a bottom 3rd offense and winning with great pitching and defense.

    Hoping other find this interesting as well.

    • Melvin

      That’s a lot of work and yes it is very interesting especially about how the Rays are winning. Thanks.

    • BK

      Thanks for pulling this all together Don … great stuff!

  10. Jon Davis

    Ok the lineup I am thinking is pretty standard thought about going Casali, who is 1 for 2 w/ HR vs Sanchez, over Barnhart who is 0 for 6. That is real life though not Sim and with Castillo on the mound I figure the better defender should play. In real life Sanchez in his career has a reverse split but last year was the opposite as mentioned by Don, so here is the lineup I am planning to go with, if anyone has any thoughts feel free to share.

    1. Akiyama – CF
    2. Votto – 1B
    3. Suarez – 3B
    4. Moustakas – 2B
    5. Castellanos – RF
    6. Winker – LF
    7. Barnhart – C
    8. Castillo – P
    9. Galvis – SS

    • BK

      Jon, last season, LH had an advantage over RH hitters. This is his 15th year as an MLB pitcher, so he most likely has adapted to stay competitive over such a long period of time. I’d weight the more recent data more heavily than his career numbers. The sample sizes are so small of actual ABs against Sanchez that I would not recommend weighting them very heavily. Bottom-line: I like the lineup you put together.

      Your faithful Bench Coach

    • Don

      I like your lineup.

      I did a cut and paste mistake from my Friday note and copied Ross 2019 not Sanchez in my other post. Sanchez did not pitch vs Reds in 2019 so had to go to 2018.

      Reds vs Sanchez in 2019
      Castellanos 3-6, HR
      Mouse 2-2

      Reds vs Sanchez in 2018
      Suarez 0-2
      Votto 0-2
      Winker 2-2

    • Gonzo Reds

      I like the alternating of RL in the middle of the order. Sanchez will likely only go 5-6 innings and keeps the Nats honest with their RPs.

      Now if only we had Peraza still…ha screw that, we know there’s a Sox homer in the Strato card making team when we see that kind of bs stat line.

  11. Tom Mitsoff

    Jon, I have your lineup. A win Sunday puts us back at .500, and gets us through nine games against the Cardinals, Cubs and Nationals with a 6-3 record. Let’s go!

  12. Don

    Raining again Sunday AM so did some more number crunching

    Through Saturday June 27th games Team hitting (pitcher position not included as I summed each team batters from Strat-o-Matic hitting stats page so that I could have the Sac Fly’s in the BABIP calculation)
    This will also tell us how the Sim Reds offensive players we pick are doing against the rest of the league being run by Strat-O-Matic

    Sim Reds
    BABIP (0.321) – Tied 9th
    AVG (0.276) – Tied 5th, Tied 3rd NL, 1st Central
    OBP (0.344) – 6th, 5th NL, 2nd in Central (Cards 1st 0.349)
    SLG% (0.440) – Tied 9th, 4th NL, 1st Central (Tied with Cubs)
    OPS (0.784) – 7th, 4th NL, 1st Central

    League Averages
    BABIP = 0.315
    Avg = 0.265
    OB% = 0.329
    SLG% = 0.429
    OPS =0.757

    So out Sim Reds are a top 10 if not top 5 in all the key offensive statistics.

    Sometimes I think we are pretty hard on ourselves trying to find the offense.
    We should be proud of ourselves that we as a group have been able to figure out how to play the game and are maximizing the part of the game that is in our control.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Don, I agree that it has been fun and interesting to learn the best ways to play the game, and it has been the contributions of everyone in the group that have helped to do that.