Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E
Reds 0 0 1 0 2 0 5 0 0 8 10 0
Brewers 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 4 5 2

Eugenio Suarez cracked his 20th home run of the season in the top of the 7th inning, kick starting a 5-run inning that put the Cincinnati Reds (35-36) well out in front of the Milwaukee Brewers (35-35) at Milwaukee’s Miller Park in an 8-4 win on Saturday.

That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.


Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!


It was a big day for Jesse Winker who made the Brewers pay as he drove in three runs, including the go-ahead run in the top of the 5th inning with a 2-run double to put Cincinnati ahead 3-2 after ceding the lead in the previous half-inning.

After Suarez busted the seams off of the ball with a 1-out homer in the 7th, Winker walked, and the Brewers made the mistake of intentionally walking Mike Moustakas to put two runners on. Freddy Galvis, Mark Payton, and Tyler Stephenson all followed up with singles before Joey Votto capped off the inning with a double that put the Reds up 8-2 and put the game completely out of reach.

The big 7th inning kept Tyler Mahle in line for the win after firing off 6.0 innings of 2-run baseball. Nate Jones hit a speed bump in the 7th, but had plenty of runs to work with as he gave up two runs on a 2-run homer to Omar Narvaez. Jones came back out for the 8th and worked around a double and a walk to keep the score at 8-4. Lefty Amir Garrett then came on for the 9th inning and put the Brewers down 1-2-3 to seal the victoy.

Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic:

Standings following the June 13 games:

NL Central WON LOST PCT GB
Cardinals 39 31 .557 0.0
Cubs 38 33 .535 1.5
Brewers 35 35 .500 4.0
Reds 35 36 .493 4.5
Pirates 30 40 .429 9.0

The 2020 schedule as currently constituted has the Reds in Milwaukee Saturday for the second game of a three-game series at Miller Park. Today’s Redleg Nation winning commenter/manager Redsfan4life will set the lineup with Anthony DeSclafani as the starting pitcher, while right-hander Adrian Houser will pitch for Milwaukee.

News/Notes from around baseball

One of the things we would have during the season in the game threads was a section comprised of news and notes for the day. While there’s a lot less going on these days in the baseball world than usual for this time of year, there still are some things that are worth highlighting. When there are, we’ll be adding them to these daily simulation threads.

The “Taxi Squad” could be quite large

Over at RedsMinorLeagues.com this morning I took a look at some of the rumors around the “taxi squad”, that would essentially be used as backups for injuries or performance related demotions/promotions during a baseball season this year. Teams and their “taxi squad” will not be at the same location, which was a bit surprising. They will need to be within 100 miles of the “home stadium”, which leaves the Reds with a few options. But we also learned that the “taxi squad” may be as many as 34 players beyond the active big league roster – which is also a bit of a surprise given some of the rumors we had heard about it in the past.

Where could the Reds “taxi squad” play?

MLB buys another printing press for printing money

As Major League Baseball owners seem to cry poor and being unable to play baseball games without losing money hand over fist (which, well, there’s tons of evidence that it’s not remotely the case) – today they agreed to a new deal with Turner Sports to broadcast some of the playoff games. Andrew Marchand of The New York Post had the story first. The deal used to be for $350,000,000. The new deal is for $1,000,000,000 – a change of $650,000,000. Hard to truly fathom how some owners are out here trying to convince the world that baseball is not very profitable….

Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:

Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.

Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.

Here is how it will work:

  • In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
  • We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
    • First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
    • Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
  • What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.

All players’ batting stats

All players’ pitching stats

Batting and pitching player stats by team

Redleg Nation commenter/manager Redsfan4life will have priority on the lineup for Sunday because he was the winning manager Saturday. Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:

Commenter/
“Manager”
WON LOST PCT
Jon Davis 6 2 .750
Peter Onte 2 1 .667
BK 9 5 .643
James Owens 3 2 .600
Redsfan4life 5 3 .571
Doug Gray 1 1 .500
RedsEuphoria 1 1 .500
Tomn 1 1 .500
Gonzo Reds 3 4 .429
Melvin 1 4 .200
Don 1 4 .200
AirborneJayJay 0 1 .000
Jeff 0 1 .000
Mark Moore 0 1 .000
VaRedsFan 0 1 .000
Tom Mitsoff 0 2 .000

About Strat-O-Matic

Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:

Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.

Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.

Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.

The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.

31 Responses

  1. Doug Gray

    I’m taking over for Tom this week while he gets some vacation time in. I’ll do my best not to screw anything up, but I’m not making any promises, either.

    • BK

      Thanks for stepping in … we’ll try to behave!

    • Redsfan4life

      Thanks Doug for taking over for Tom this week.

  2. Jon Davis

    Current Roster
    (* = player has NO options)
    (+ = LHP or LHB)
    (^ = Switch Hitter)

    Our current 26 man roster is:
    C – T. Stephenson, *+Barnhart, *Casali
    IF – *+Votto, *+Moustakas, *Suarez, *^Galvis, *+Dietrich
    OF – +Akiyama, Lorenzen, *Ervin, *Castellanos, +Payton, +Winker
    SP – *Desclafani, *Gray, *+Miley, Castillo, Mahle
    RP – *+Reed, Iglesias, *+Garrett, *Sims, *Strop, *R. Stephenson, Lorenzen, *Jones
    DL – *Bauer (Can return 6/24)

    Guys on the 40 man roster not on active roster
    C – Farmer(Can Return 6/17)
    IF – Garcia(Can Return 6/23), +Vanmeter, Blandino
    OF – Senzel(Can Return 6/17), Aquino(Can Return 6/20), +Jankowski, *+Schebler
    SP – Santillan, DeLeon, Antone
    RP – Hendrix, Kuhnel, Shafer, +Smith, Bowman(Can Return 6/23)

    Finally here is a list of relevant non 40 man players
    C – Chris Okey
    IF – India, Davidson, Colon, Rodriguez, Trahan
    OF – +Friedl, +Powell, Barnes, Fairchild, +Hannah, +Siani
    SP – +Lodolo, Greene, Gutierrez, +Naughton, +Raley, Solomon, Lillie, +Sanmartin
    RP – Thornburg, +Biddle, Romano, +Finnegan, Carpenter, Alaniz, Powers

  3. Redsfan4life

    Wow at last I managed to win two games in a row.
    I am not changing the lineup since we are facing another RHP

    Votto 1b
    Akiyama cf
    Suarez 3b
    Winker lf
    Ervin rf
    Moustakas 2b
    Galvis ss
    Desclafani p
    Stephenson c

    Also despite pitching a solid game. My vote is to send Mahle down and call up Kuenel. We can recall Deleon or another starter for Bauer’s next turn in rotation. This gives us a extra bullpen arm for time being.

    • Doug Gray

      Here’s how the rotation is currently set up, as passed on to me from Tom:
      Sunday, June 14 — DeSclafani
      Monday, June 15 — off day
      Tuesday, June 16 — Castillo
      Wednesday, June 17 — Gray
      Thursday, June 18 — (Miley or reliever or someone else)
      Friday, June 19 — DeSclafani
      Saturday, June 20 — (reliever or someone else or Miley if not used Thursday)
      Sunday, June 21 — Castillo
      Monday, June 22 — off day
      Tuesday, June 23 — Gray

      Just something to think about.

    • BK

      Congrats on the victory! I agree with your strategy. Houser is vulnerable to LH hitting. Nice to see T. Stephenson have good game–we could use a boost at catcher!

      • Redsfan4life

        Thanks BK I was starting to think a two game winning streak was not in the cards for me.

    • Gonzo Reds

      Kuhnel for Mahle agree. Keep it going RedsFan4Life! I also won my first game and lost my second 3 times in a row before this last time that I got saddled with the broken Castillo card. Glad you had more luck!

      Good job Doug, I can’t tell where you screwed this up as of yet…

      Sorry, we apparently agreed to behave while Tom was on vacation… to make it up to you I suggest you put in a lineup once this streak is broken, hopefully in a couple of weeks!

      • Doug Gray

        Oh, it already happened, Gonzo. But I saw it and fixed it rather quickly lol.

      • Redsfan4life

        Thanks Gonzo. I have really enjoyed this, it is something to do for a few minuets a day till we get real baseball back.
        Nothing against Ervin but I sure hope he isn’t taking time away from Castellanos and Senzel if the season ever starts. I would say the Reds maybe in trouble if that happens. Hopefully Gray and Castillo pitch a whole lot better for real as well.

  4. BK

    For tomorrow we should send Mahle down and recall a reliever. I suggest Kuhnel should be promoted until we need another starter next Saturday.

  5. Don

    Redsfan4life wins two in a row, goes for sweep on Sunday.

    Mahle had a 2 hitter (Cain 2B and Yellich hit a HR) in 6 inning ( 4 walks, 2 erased with line out double plays) so that is an above average start for the Sim Reds and good infield defense.

    Votto went 2-5 on 1st day off IL, Stephenson when 2-4.

    I would suggest that you with the same players in the lineup for Sunday vs Houser.

    Future Pitching.

    Jones covered 2 innings so the bullpen should be OK to go after a light day and there is an off day on Monday. The bullpen has the same depth (8 pitchers) as with the 5 man rotation.

    This was Tom’s suggestion for pitchers usage the rest of June to take advantage of the off days and get an extra start for Castillo and Gray by delaying a Miley start a few days.

    6-14 – @ Brewers – Disco
    6-15 – Off Day
    6-16 – @ Padres – Castillo
    6-17 – @ Padres – Gray
    6-18 – @ Padres – ????
    6-19 – @ Padres – Disco
    6-20 – @ Cards – ????
    6-21 – @ Cards – Castillo
    6-22 – Off Day
    6-23 – Cubs – Gray
    6-24 – Cubs – Bauer
    6-25 – Cubs – Disco
    6-26 – Nats – Castillo
    6-27 – Nats – Miley
    6-28 – Nats – Gray
    6-29 – @ Dodgers – Bauer
    6-30 – @ Dodgers – Disco

    I vote we keep Mahle on the 26 man to start vs Padres on the 18th and start Miley on the 20th. We talked about demoting him and using De Leon or a bullpen day but I think he has earned another chance.

    If the majority vote to send Mahle out, my vote to replace is Kuhnel.

    • BK

      See note below … Mahle had some really good luck, today.

      • Redsfan4life

        Yeah that is why I would have been fine with Mahle or Deleon in this start. I wasn’t expecting much from either. He did have a lot of luck today. But we are do for some luck. I am with you, I think a reliever would be more valuable to the team even with a off day Monday.
        Our pen has been worked hard.
        I do think we need to just cut Nate Jones loose in 9 days and get Bowman back.

  6. BK

    Just a little food for thought … the Brewer’s BABIP was a mere .158, today. Second lowest opposing BABIP of the season. Good defense and good luck for our pitchers.

  7. Melvin

    I vote to keep Mahle up. I agree with Don. He’s earned another chance.

    • BK

      So should we just ignore the opponent BABIP from today? Reds pitchers weren’t just lucky today, they were extremely lucky.

      • Melvin

        Could just have been good solid defense which is what we need to win consistently. I like a lot of offense too. There’s only one thing I like more in baseball….winning.

      • Don

        I think it is better infield defense:
        Mahle got 6 ground ball outs (one turned to 643 DP) and did not give up any singles.
        2 line outs (he got one and turned in DP) and one infield Pop up
        5 outfield outs ( 3 center, 1 right)

        From what I have been seeing in this Strat-O game the key is do not give up singles. The Reds seem to give up a lot of singles (which would be a result of limited infield defensive range). Hopefully the infield defense stays strong.

  8. BK

    Speaking of BABIP, I’ve calculated this stat for all of the Reds hitters. I think the best way to use this data is to compare to a player’s 2019 BABIP (or career #s for small sample size players) as players that hit a lot of HR have lower BABIP as their HR are pulled from the data and thus have lower BABIP.

    1. Ervin: sim BABIP is a team leading .413 vs .339 in 2019 (expect regression)
    2. Suarez. sim .308 BABIP vs .312 in 2019
    3. Winker: sim BABIP of .352 vs. .286 in 2019 (career .312)
    4. Moustakas: sim .244 BABIP; 2019 BABIP of .250
    5. Lorenzen: sim .250 BABIP; career BABIP of .304 (.300 in 2019)
    6. Galvis: sim .313 BABIP vs. .312 BABIP in 2019
    7. Votto: sim .290 BABIP vs. .313 BABIP in 2019
    8. Castellanos: sim .322 BABIP vs. .337 BABIP in 2019
    9. Casali: sim .330 BABIP vs. .308 BABIP in 2019
    10. Aquino: sim .286 BABIP vs. .266 BABIP in 2019
    11. Barnhart: sim .317 BABIP vs. .293 career BABIP (.278 in 2019)
    12. VanMeter: sim .269 BABIP vs. .279 BABIP in 2019
    13. Senzel: sim .253 BABIP vs. .319 BABIP in 2019
    14. Farmer: sim .333 BABIP vs. .244 BABIP in 2019
    15. Dietrich: sim .214 BABIP vs. .295 career BABIP (.176 in 2019)

    Of course, there is no MLB data on Akiyama, Payton, T. Stephenson or Garcia.

    Observations:
    – We should carefully monitor Ervin–he’s overperforming by a lot. Perhaps we should work Payton into the OF against RHP more frequently as Ervin tends to have strong spits.
    – Winker will likely regress. We should rarely start him against a LHP due to his splits.
    – Lorenzen should rebound
    – Dietrich is well below career norms–he should improve. His 2019 BABIP is anomalous from his career norms as he hit a career high in HR and played hurt from June on.
    – Senzel has hit into a lot of bad luck. He may provide a boost if recalled

    • Don

      BK,
      thanks for all the stats work, it can be time consuming.

    • Don

      Castellanos not playing bothers me in my gut. I just cannot believe that the Reds would give up on him after 220 plate appearances.

      To get to his 2019 or his career averages he is due to go on a long hot steak. He is over 100 points under his career OPS and 190 off his 2019 OPS so he has to be due.

      • BK

        Castellanos is likely to hit for more power than he has thus far. His SLG in simland is just .393 compared to .525 last year and .500 in 2018. However, his BABIP shows of the balls he has put in play, his luck is consistent with career norms.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        Hey guys! I think Castellanos will be the full-time DH when real games begin. They’ll probably platoon Winker and Ervin in left, go with Senzel in center and Akiyama in right.

  9. Don

    Brewers have been having lots of luck all season to have the record they do and it looks like lady luck today did not give them another one today.

    They are giving up 5.01 and scoring 4.65. (-28 runs overall) so they should not be a 500 team their expected record is 3 games under on pace to be 7 to 8 under for a full season if they keep the same pace of negative runs.

    Reds are scoring 4.94 and giving up 4.68 (+19 runs), the Sim Reds x-W/L is +2 over 500 for 71 games, on pace +4 for the full season if they keep the same run differential. The Sim Reds are 3 under their x W/L (sounds lot like 2019).

    Sim Reds are due for a few more breaks.

    Cards are giving up 4.36 and scoring 4.95 (+42 runs so far,projects to +97 for 162 games). Their X-W/L pace for the season is 90 wins (9 over 500). The Cards current X-W/L is 4 over 500 and they are +8 so the Cards should play 1 over 500 based on run differential the rest of the season.

    Cubs are giving up 4.41 and scoring 4.79 (+27 runs), Project xW/L is 87 wins (+6 over 500) for the season. The Cubs are now 5 over 500 so they also should only play 1 over 500 based on run differential for the rest of the season.

    The Reds and Cards have the best offenses in the division (0.01 runs a game difference).

    Cards are giving up way fewer runs (305 in 70 games) with a team ERA = 4.16 + 15 unearned runs.
    Reds have given up (332 in 71 games) with a team ERA = 4.28 + 24 unearned runs.

    If the Sim Reds are to get to 90 wins (projected x W/L for Cards based on run differential and current winning %)

    A run differential of +97 projects to a 90 win team. To get to a +97 run differential the Reds need to increase their average run differential by +0.85 runs a game for the last 91 games.

    Somehow through better pitching and defense or more offense the Reds need to change a +0.26 per game run differential for the 1st 71 games to +1.15 run differential for the last 91 games to get to 90 wins.

    That is what we as managers must figure out how to accomplish by putting the players in a better position to succeed.

    • Melvin

      Wow Don. That’s some good stuff. You and some others on here are great when it comes to stats. Don’t think I don’t appreciate all the info cause I do. I like stats too but I’m not ashamed to say you all are at another level than I am. Just have to be careful and not get drowned in them though . I understand it’s hard not to as that’s ALL we have to go by since we can’t see anyone play or talk with anyone. Sometimes they can be deceiving too. It’s hard for anyone to argue with what you just said the way you laid it out. I noticed we turned two double plays today. If you’d like to when you have time at your convenience it might be helpful to find out how many we’ve turned and compare that to other teams. May tell us nothing. May tell us a lot. Thanks again.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Don, very interesting analysis as usual. Your conclusion that the Reds project at +4 over 162 games, which would be 83-79, was very interesting. It’s right in the range that most observers projected the real Reds would finish. It’s also been interesting to me that the sim NL Central race has, for the most part, had four teams closely bunched. Again, that is something that many experts predicted. While there are some things about the Strat-O-Matic simulation that are skewed, the overall results and standings to date are very much like what would be expected in real life baseball.

      Go sim Reds and Redsfan4life for a sweep Sunday!

  10. Doug Gray

    Alright guys, there were more votes for Mahle down and Kuhnel up than anything else, so we’re going with it.