Kurt Suzuki’s two-run home run in the bottom of the 11th inning off Lucas Sims propelled the Washington Nationals (22-10) to their second consecutive come-from-behind win over the Cincinnati Reds (13-19) by a 4-2 score.
That was the result today as Strat-O-Matic games of Glen Head, N.Y., continued its announced plan to simulate the entire 2020 Major League Baseball season on a day-by-day basis for as long as actual game play is on hold.
Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:
Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance. Learn more below!
The sim Reds led 2-1 heading to the bottom of the eighth. Cincinnati scored two in the top of the seventh on RBI singles by Jesse Winker and pinch-hitter Joey Votto. But the Reds bullpen coughed up the lead in the bottom of the eighth on a RBI hit by Starlin Castro.
In the bottom of the 11th, Lucas Sims walked the leadoff batter, Eric Thames, and Suzuki followed immediately with the game-winning home run.
The loss was the fourth consecutive one for the sim Reds.
With the loss, the Reds fell within one-half game of fifth-place Pittsburgh, which defeated the Miami Marlins.
Here is the sim Reds box score, as provided by Strat-O-Matic
C-Pinch Hit For Desclafani In 7th Inning
D-Pinch Hit For Farmer In 7th Inning
E-Subbed Defensively (C ) For Winker In 7th Inning
F-Pinch Hit For Vanmeter In 8th Inning
G-Pinch Hit For Strop In 8th Inning
J-Pinch Hit For Stephenson In 11th Inning
A-Subbed Defensively (1B) For Zimmerman In 5th Inning
B-Subbed Defensively (3B) For Kieboom In 5th Inning
H-Pinch Hit For Rainey In 8th Inning
I-Pinch Hit For Hudson In 9th Inning
Standings following the May 2 games:
The 2020 schedule as currently constituted has the Reds playing the final of a three-game series in the nation’s capital Sunday against the Washington Nationals. Wade Miley will pitch for the sim Reds, while lefthander Patrick Corbin will pitch for the Nationals.
Help set the lineup, batting order for the simulated Reds:
Have you ever dreamed of your opportunity to “manage” the Reds? Now is your chance.
Strat-O-Matic has agreed to allow Redleg Nation to submit the Cincinnati Reds’ lineups for each day’s simulated game. We want all of our readers who want to participate to get involved.
Here is how it will work:
- In each wrap up of that day’s simulated game, Redleg Nation will post the opposing starting pitcher for the next game. You will know who the pitcher is and whether he is left-handed or right-handed, and you can use that information in creating a lineup for the next game, and submitting it in the comments below. “Splits” such as performance vs. left-handers or right-handers are replicated in the Strat-O-Matic game algorithm, and therefore should be considered.
- We will accept lineups from every reader who wants to submit one. The lineup that will be submitted to Strat-O-Matic each day will be the one that receives the most positive replies (in effect, “yes” votes) from readers other than the submitter. In case of ties:
- First tiebreaker: Lineup submitted by the reader who has had the fewest number of opportunities as a “manager.”
- Second tiebreaker: Lineup submitted earliest in the comment thread. (So get your lineup in “early” each day.)
- What is “early?” Redleg Nation posts these articles daily between 5 and 6 p.m. Eastern time. Strat-O-Matic’s deadline for us to submit a lineup for the next day’s game is midnight. On most days, we’ll do this before “bedtime,” which is typically between 10:30 and 11 Eastern time.
Strat-O-Matic statistics through today’s games:
Batting and pitching player stats by team
Have fun with this! If you have any questions, please post them in the comment string below. Here are the “managerial records” of our Redleg Nation participants to date:
Strat-O-Matic has been in the sports simulation business since the 1960s. A USA Today article contained this explanation:
Strat-O-Matic and other baseball simulations use statistics from the previous season to create “cards” for each player on a roster. The team managers select the batting order and the starting pitcher. From there, a series of dice rolls and calculations determines the outcome of each at-bat.
Strat-O, as it’s known to longtime players, first gained its immense popularity as a board game. The company has since expanded to a downloadable Windows version and one that’s played online. A few years ago, it introduced Baseball Daily – a new iteration that combined the player cards from the previous season with statistics from the real season being played at the same time.
Unlike many video games, the Strat-O-Matic results are based on algorithms that account for players’ performance based on statistics that their statistical experts project for each player in the 2020 season. It’s not a game played with a joystick that relies more on the skill of the person with the video game controller in his or her hand.
The simulation software will keep comprehensive statistics for all teams for the season, so we’ll be able to track year-to-date leaders in many statistical categories. Our current plan is to provide statistical leader summaries here at Redleg Nation each Sunday. You can follow the season at Strat-O-Matic.com, where they plan to post the results from each day’s schedule at 2 p.m. Eastern time.
News/Notes from around baseball
One of the things we would have during the season in the game threads was a section comprised of news and notes for the day. While there’s a lot less going on these days in the baseball world than usual for this time of year, there still are some things that are worth highlighting. When there are, we’ll be adding them to these daily simulation threads.
Do you remember Victor Garcia?
Over at RedsMinorLeagues.com today, Doug Gray looked at Victor Garcia’s 1990 season as the best among all relievers from the 90’s down on the farm. He was absolutely dominant in his career….. until spring training with the big league club in 1992 when he abruptly left the team and didn’t return until the following year. He only pitched one more season in his career after that.
Who could be the Reds potential DH?
Paul Sporer took a look at who could fill in the designated hitter roles for each National League team in the 2020 season if and when we get baseball, as it seems the designated hitter is coming to the league for the season. The Fangraphs writer has three options for the Reds – Aristides Aquino, Josh VanMeter, and Phillip Ervin. He notes, like we did here at Redleg Nation yesterday, Cincinnati could be one of the top teams in the league to benefit from the DH role coming to the NL in 2020.
Scratch that lineup above Corbin is a Lefty
So sorry guys. We did have 13 hits at least but only two runs in 11 innings. Oh well. haha Akiyama had a rough day 0-6. That would have helped had he had a normal day. Some observations that I’m sure you noticed too. Winker is hot. Ervin had two hits even while facing a right hander. It’s getting harder to keep him out. Lorenzen no hits but two walks might need some more at bats too. Same goes for VanMeter with two hits. Good news is Votto, Moustakas, and Senzel came off the bench and contributed. Votto with two hits even. Maybe “riding the pine” a little helps motivate players in simulation too. LOL Also interesting is Strat-O-Matic subbed Senzel in at 2nd. Galvis was 0-5. Maybe it’s time to give him a break from playing every day and see how it will work with Senzel playing there. Only a little over 30 games and sinking fast. Time to start winning.
In response to the Paul Sporer article above. In my mind Winker is the perfect DH candidate being a real good hitter with no arm or legs. Speaking of the DH. I’m personally more of a traditionalist but I do like it a little especially in simulation. Bobby Nightengale, in an article yesterday, had a real good idea about the DH and I like it A LOT. He said, So, why not have it both ways?
Teams can have a designated hitter for the starting pitcher, but once the starter is removed from the game, then the team loses its DH. It adds value to pitching deep in games, creates additional strategy when pulling a starting pitcher and keeps late-game strategies intact.
If a team wants to use an opener, it’s choosing to forfeit a DH.
I’m In for supporting this lineup. Something a little different Lets see what it can do.
At 10:57 p.m. Eastern time, we had three submissions, and the lineup selected by BK had one endorsement. That is the one we are submitting in hopes of breaking the losing streak!
Enjoying the writes up each day, it is at least giving us something to do when there is no much going on right now.
Thanks for the links to the Stat-O-Matic Stats, Interesting to see what they are for the team.
After 32 games, 20% of season has been played which is close to statistically significant.
Name PA Avg OB% Slug% OPS
Shogo Akiyama 117 0.336 0.385 0.561 0.945
Phillip Ervin 52 0.304 0.385 0.457 0.841
Eugenio Suarez 138 0.227 0.333 0.487 0.821
Jesse Winker 94 0.295 0.33 0.409 0.739
Josh Vanmeter 42 0.289 0.357 0.368 0.726
Mike Moustakas 120 0.206 0.308 0.382 0.691
Freddy Galvis 125 0.25 0.304 0.371 0.675
Kyle Farmer 17 0.25 0.294 0.375 0.669
Nic Castellanos 125 0.235 0.272 0.336 0.608
Joey Votto 117 0.206 0.299 0.304 0.603
Tucker Barnhart 79 0.233 0.278 0.315 0.594
Curt Casali 46 0.25 0.283 0.25 0.533
Nick Senzel 85 0.195 0.262 0.26 0.522
Total 1157 0.248 0.314 0.383 0.698
Offense is averaging 3.75 Runs per Game
Team Runs allowed per game is 4.34
Maybe start adjusting the line ups to what has happened so far in 2020 as there are some unpleasantness:
Akiyama is still playing like a stud and should never not be in the lineup.
Senzel (too bad) should probably not play much at all
Votto and Moose are not getting many hits so maybe should play less
Winker, Ervin, VanMeter should play more
Suarez hitting HR but not much else, 9 HRs, 36 K’s, 4 GIDP, 8 Errors
Castellanos is not hitting for power or average (2HR, 6 doubles with 34 K’s)
Farmer should be given more opportunities.
Galvis is not having a great year but he is not the worst performer on the team.
Looking at the schedule the next 3 games after Sunday is at the Mets (15-18) and based on the previous games these would be the probable pitchers.
Castillo (ERA=5.63, WHIP=1.55, K/9=8.2) vs Degrom (ERA 4.66, WHIP = 1.10, K/9 = 12.8)
Gray (ERA=3.15,WHIP=1.05,K/9=11.5) vs Stroman (ERA 3.79, WHIP=1.35, K/9 = 7.6)
Bauer (ERA=2.84,WHIP=1.28,K/9=9.7) vs Porcello (ERA 2.32, WHIP=0.995, K/9 = 8.2)
Castillo must have a really bad pitcher card as it has to project to a significant downgrade of performance. or no luck with dice rolling as his career stats are (ERA 3.4, WHIP 1.16,K/9=9.8)
Gray career (ERA 3.53, WHIP = 1.220, K/9=8.3) is much better than his career stats.
Bauer career (ERA 4.04, WHIP = 1.295. K/9 = 9.5) has better ERA but underling stats in line with career.
Mets hitting (3.69 runs per game) (thru 33 games)
PA = 1196, Avg = 0.244, OBP = 0.301, Slug%=0.377, OPS=0.678
The offensive stats are are not much difference between the teams, Reds slightly ahead in all categories.
Lets hope that the 3 games at the Mets on Mon to Wed get some wins, these are the games the Reds must win in the real season to compete.
This would be my lineup most days based on the simulation stats
Akiyama – CF
Winker – LF
Ervin – RF
Suarez – 3B
VanMeter – 1B
Farmer – 2B
Galvis – SS
Barnhart – C
The numbers show that the three highest paid offensive players on the roster needs to sit and be the bench players.
In a simulation, one should only manage by the numbers and not reputation.
Now if the stats were the Baseball Reference Stats. Different story there, OPS for each player there
Mouse = 0.932 (7 HR, 9 doubles,14 BB)
Galvis = 0.931 (6 HR, 9 doubles)
Dietrich = 0.892
Winker = 0.855 (5 HR, 4 doubles,13 BB)
Barnhardt = 0.833 (4 HR, 7 doubles, 11 BB)
Senzel = 0.812 (2 HR, 3 doubles)
Castellanos = 0.767 (7HR, 8 doubles)
Votto = 0.727 (1HR, 9 doubles, 24 BB)
Payton = 0.688
Akiyama = 0.664 (1 HR, 4 doubles)
VanMeter = 0.656
Casali = 0.572
Suarez = 0.566 (should never be in the lineup for this simulation, 2HR and 35 Ks)
Ervin and Framer are not on roster
Baseball reference is more or what I think the Reds (record 17-15) expect for offense (4.5 Runs per game).
Looks to be a more offensive minded simulation as the Reds pitching is giving up 4.93 Runs per game
As I said, some baseball numbers to crunch on a Sunday Morning.