The Winter Meetings are now officially over. The Rule 5 Draft wrapped up just before 1pm ET and was the final event to take place – sending everyone back to their homes. The Reds were busy in the Rule 5 draft, and you can read about that below. Perhaps the biggest news as it relates to the Cincinnati Reds, though, came from Jon Morosi of MLB Network early in the morning when he reported that the Reds were still showing interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos.
For a team that is looking to add offense, Castellanos is probably the best hitter remaining on the free agent market. From 2016-2018 he posted a 120 OPS+ for the Detroit Tigers. In the first half of 2019 that was just a mark of 105 for the Tigers. But after being traded at the deadline to the Chicago Cubs, he went nuts, hitting .321/.356/.646 – good for a 151 OPS+, finishing the year with a Major League best 58 doubles, three triples, and 27 homers.
He’s been an extra-base hit machine over the last three seasons, with tons of non-homers making up a good chunk of that. Great American Ballpark probably helps turn a few of those extra-base hits into homers. There are certainly concerns about his defense – but if you are looking to upgrade the offense in free agency, he’s probably the best option.
The Reds select Mark Payton in the Rule 5 Draft
Mark Payton has a breakout year and a half in 2019 for Oakland. The short left-handed hitter (he’s listed at just 5′ 8″ and 190 lbs) began the year with 32 career home runs. He then went out and hit a ridiculous .334/.400/.653 with 30 doubles, three triples, and 30 home runs for Triple-A Las Vegas in 447 plate appearances.
Now, it’s worth noting that Las Vegas hit .298/.371/.531 as a team in 2019. The ballpark, the league, and the juiced baseball played hilariously in Triple-A this past season. With that said, Mark Payton’s 1.053 OPS was good for an OPS+ of 149, so he was significantly better than the league average. Of course he was also a 27-year-old.
The outfielder did make some changes to his game, though. As noted in the breakdown over at RedsMinorLeagues.com – his fly ball rate dramatically increased in 2019 and the he reaped all of the benefits for making that change.
While there are absolutely reasons to wonder exactly how the bat will play given the kind of hitter Payton was prior to 2019, the change in approach certainly gives some hope that at least some of the breakout was real. He’s always had a good understanding of the strikezone, walking more than 10% of the time for his career, and making contact at a good rate. Defensively he can cover you in center field if you really need him to, but he’s stretched there as an every day kind of player. Then again, the Reds also played Jesse Winker in center field at times in 2019, so….. But in a realistic scenario, Payton is more of a corner outfield defender.
Dan Szymborki posted the ZiPS projections for the players selected in the Major League version of the Rule 5 Draft over at Fangraphs just now. Mark Payton is projected to hit .255/.315/.449 and provide the most WAR of any of the 11 players selected today.
The Reds also saw some action in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. They picked up two players for the farm system. They also lost two players out of the farm system. You can read more about that at this link if you’re interested.
Photo of Nicholas Castellanos by Keith Allison and was edited. The license can be found here.
What happens with Winker?
Colorado laughs you right out of the stadium .
I don’t think this pick had anything to do with Winker other than adding organization depth and competition
Colorado Loves there own.
Kyle, is a Cy Young candidate.
Story is the 2nd coming of the babe, and will have a war greater the Trout.
Charlie they would trade.
Then Votto says no, and stays here
Hopefully Winker to the A’s for Semien
Yes, he’s still around.
David Price? I’d rather sign bumgarner or keuchel than trade a prospect and pay whatever boston doesn’t pay.
Besides the ballpark and league factors and the change to the MLB spec ball did the A’s org do something different with this guy? That’s a crazy season for a player who’d never shown anything close to this performance in any season. Imagine if O’Grady and Aquino made their adjustments and then went into that park in the PCL.
Suarez isnt going anywhere. Not with the team friendly contract he just signed. Who would play 3rd? Senzel? What has he actually done yet?
I forgot about Moose. Okay I’m listening. Here is one. The Mets got 6 starting pitchers now. Suarez and ? For Thor and McNeil. Going by stats would that be a fair trade ?
How about five years of Suarez as part of a package for Lindor? It would have to be Lindor plus one or more other players of note. I would not do Suarez for Lindor straight up, one for one.
@Tom: absolutely, Suarez/Lindor is a great start but I agree “straight up” is not enough, primarily because of the years differential and that Lindor is gonna be nearly impossible to keep after 2 years,
so an additional mlb or mlb ready player or 2! with say 3 or more years of control would definitely have to come back to the reds as well. Problem is I don’t know if the Indians have the CF, C or OF’er that the Reds need. So a 3rd team would have to be involved. Do-able I’d think. You’d then have 2 years to win with Lindor and plan for a replacement.
Doug with the way free agents are getting more than predicted by most what do you think it would take to get Castellanos here? I am thinking we will have to go 5 years and $80M. TIA
I vote all in on Castellanos. Pencil him in everyday in LF and let everyone else fight for a platoon split in RF
Agree or pkg winker in a trade for a shortstop or pitcher. I think Castellanos being a doubles machine gets Votto going again.
Agree let’s get Castellanos he will absolutely rake at GABP!!!
1.330 OPS in GABP last year
Red Sox just signed Peraza. I would call them and see if they can take Boegarts off their hand.
Lol. Although I wish him well. Seems like a nice guy but I dont think he has baseball smarts.
I wish Seat and Peraza all the best.
The Reds need to find offense first and foremost and figure out where to play them defensively later. I see no reason why they can’t get enough playing time for Castellanos and the outfielders currently on the roster. That said if they could find another player that could legitimately handle center that would allow them to take advantage of Senzel’s versatility.
Votto or Suarez need a day off then Moustakas moves to 1B or 3B and Senzel goes to 2B and ?? fills in at CF.
Im in on either Castellanos or Ozuna. Im warming up to the idea of Ozuna after looking at his statcast data and some of his advanced metrics. He’s in for a big bounce back year IMO. Steve had an awesome write up on it.
If the Reds can bring in one of the two mentioned above and then trade for an upgrade at SS, then I’d be very satisfied.
I’d love to see the Reds sign Castellanos. Out of all the FA’s he’s the one I hope for the most. His bat in our lineup would do wonders for the offense.
I agree about Castellanos. He is a reliable bat. Sign him and trade Suarez for Marte or Bradley to play center or for a young shortstop like Correa. Ask for a MLB prospect in the trade as well. Hold off on Price and Bumgarner; they are expensive over-the-hill pitchers whose best days are long behind them. Be patient about pitching, Green and Lodolo will be coming up soon.
School, I like your idea.
I would love to have Correa, or Lindor or Trea Turner for that matter but I don’t realistically think the Reds are going to get any of them. They don’t line up with Cleveland in what Cleveland is looking for in return, Correa is going to cost too much in return value and Washington just lost Rendon they are not trading Turner. The better matchup might be foe Seager or Story but both of them are still going to cost. I would be willing to go with Galvis at short if we could up grade offensively at catcher, but even there the options are getting limited. Getting Castellanos would also be huge. I enjoyed Aquino one month surge this past year but I really don’t see that continuing unless they can fix his plate discipline and ability to recognize the breaking ball.