The Cincinnati Reds pitching was pretty strong in 2019, even though there were some ups-and-downs with the bullpen a few times during the year. But the offense…. well, that was another story. There were a whole heck of a lot more downs than ups during the 2019 season. Addressing some of the problems on the offensive side of things is certainly an area of concentration for the Reds this offseason according to Dick Williams, as reported by Jon Morosi of MLB Network late on Tuesday night.
#Reds are focused on adding bats, as Dick Williams told us on @MLBNetwork: “What held us back last year was the offense . . . We’ll be looking for ways to get more out of the existing group, but we’ll be looking high and low — free agent market and trade market — for offense.”
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 13, 2019
The Reds have already been linked to several names on the free agent market, and they’re among some of the bigger ones on the market, too. MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Cincinnati will land both catcher Yasmani Grandal and shortstop Didi Gregorius. Other outlets believe that they are going after both as their top targets, too. That would certainly help the offense improve, unless there was something unforeseen. The trade market could be a fall back option if the team is unable to land either of these two.
They’ve also been linked with outfielder Marcell Ozuna. He’s been an above-average hitter for each of the last four seasons. His 2017 campaign saw him hit .312/.376/.548, good for a 149 OPS+, which was easily the best of his career. He’s only been a little above-average at the plate in the other three seasons in that stretch. Mike Petriello of MLB.com took a deep dive look at Ozuna to try and figure out why some of the underlying stats that suggest he should have performed better than he actually has may be a reason to think that he could improve in 2020. Or that maybe there’s a reason he’s performed exactly as he should.
Earlier this week there were rumors that the Reds were interested in infielder Howie Kendrick. After hitting .344 and slugging .572 on the season for the Washington Nationals his services are in demand, even at his age. But it’s now being reported that the Tampa Bay Rays are the front runner according to Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer. The article from Nightengale has plenty of good tidbits from the General Manager meetings, so be sure to go read the entire thing.
do not want Ozuna, a winker/Ervin platoon would put up MUCH better numbers. and why is everyone so eager to move Senzel back to the infield? There are a lot more available second baseman than CF’s. And Senzel looked pretty good in the outfield to me.
A lot of players are “easy to find”. Are they any good, that’s the question.
I live in Miami and have been watching Ozuna’s career since the beginning through his time with the Cardinals. I agree with the underlying fear of Ozuna’s below average defense and “the peak & valleys” of his offense. Yet, I would want the Reds to take him because he is still young and I believe his hitting would thrive in a hitter’s ballpark. His batting numbers were outstanding playing in Marlins Park and solid in Busch Stadium imagine how much better in GABP.
Ozuna scares me. I don’t think he will age well at all. However, because the outfield market is so thin this year, he’s going to get paid and paid well.
Senzel didn’t look too good hitting the wall.
Few do.
Amen brother. I have been preaching the lack of situational for a long time with this club. Especially with Suarez. I shudder to think how many times he struck out with a runner at third and less then two outs. I was hoping Bell would bring a return to fundamentals, but alas, they have gotten worse not better.
@mike
Maybe I am reading the situational splits for Suarez incorrectly but I add up 37 PA’s with 5 K’s for situations with man on third and less than 2 outs.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=suareeu01&year=2019&t=b
I side with Michael Smith here and feel Mike and Doofus need to do more reserach. Suarez was the consumate team player with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. I have 5 K’s in 39 PA. I have 19 RBI and 8 BB. I have 6 SF. I have a .240 BA mostly because of a .194 BABIP. These stats tell me Suarez is indeed a team first player. Others should not speak badly about him unless they have the facts to back it up.
The bigger problem is getting to a situation where there is a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs. The Reds in 2019 only had 267 plate appearances all year with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. In 2018, they had 344 such PAs, a pretty drastic 23% decrease year over year.
It’s hard to imagine getting less production from Winker, Senzel, Votto, and whoever plays second base (I’m hoping for JVM) in 2020 than 2019. If the Reds do add Grandal behind the plate that would be a big upgrade for the offense. But if Winker and Senzel can stay healthy (and Senzel gets comfortable at the big league plate), if Votto has a rebound year to even modest Votto levels, and if JVM, Galvis, or even Blandino can provide steady on base skills from second, the Reds could see a big jump in the offense. Yes, Grandal and Gregorius could be a boost for 2020. But I think there’s just as much room for improvement from internal sources. If those two both happen this could be a very good team. Fingers crossed on Grandal. I’m ambivalent on Gregorius. And I’m excited about what 2020 could bring for Winker, Senzel, JVM and Votto. Bring it on!
This is sort of why I would like to get some “proven” players in there. We have so many “ifs”. “If” all the “ifs” step up, we don’t need one new player, and watch out NL if not the entire league.
Also, spinning it a bit differently, I would like to see a degree of “veteranism” (if that is a word) come in those new players. As in, “players with experience”, “players who know how to win”, “players who can set an example, “players who can set the bar”, “players who can show the younger players how things are suppose to be done for winning baseball”, etc.
Why this? We lost a lot of close games last season. I believe if we had a dose (or an additional dose of this, if you like), a lot of those games go our way.
I’m talking about what I’ve said before about Michael Jordan. Forget Jordan’s “high profile stats”, Jordan’s almost unnerving “will to win” drove his teammates to seemingly play to an even higher level when he went back onto the court with them.
Yes , but when new leadership came in , we struck out 2 much and defense su led, fixed dat , den new leadership…I like watching youngsters grow up , and we r SO close . Coach h likes double switching and gets more favorable matchups than any team that way . He wants guys that play numerous positions and I like the scheme. I bet he don’t like Votto LOCKED in at 1st , where u can switch easier. Don’t give up on our youngsters yet , and let Stevenson try starting again please .
Grandal seems to be the key. Adding that bat to the lineup is vital. Didi is much less important, particularly after next year. They’ve got so many platoonable 25-28 year olds they need to identify next year, and always add more starters. Perhaps Wood on another 1-year deal, and a package trade for another 4-5 starter or RP.
If the Reds are truly serious about winning they should do the following given that they have $40 million to spend right now.
1. Sign FA: Didi (3 years/48 million/16 million per year), Grandal (4/70/17.5), Will Smith (3/36/12), Betances (2/18/9) and Scooter (1/4/4) Total (13/176/58.5) (18.5 million over budget)
2. Trade Galvis/Barnhart/India for Clint Frazier (NYY) (Reduce budget 8.5 million with this trade).
3. Approach Votto and tell him Reds management want to be all in for 2019 and 2020 and ask if he is willing to defer $10 million a year so the Reds can bring in the above players. I am pretty sure he will say yes.
LF: Winker/Ervin
CF: Senzel
RF: Frazier
IF: Votto, Gennett, Suarez and Didi
C: Grandal
SP: Castillo/Gray/Bauer/DeSclafani/Mahle
RP: Smith/Betances/Iglesias/Garrett/Stephenson/Lorenzen with 2 of Reed/Sims/Bowman/Alaniz/Herget/Kuhnel
You suddenly have a really good bullpen and good SP. The offense has a lot of potential too.
I think Grandal ends up in COL so if he does then replace Grandal with D’Arnaud and Sign Wheeler too. I personally feel Wheeler will add more value/$ than any FA signing this winter. I think his 2020 stats will be similar to Strasburg.
Stock,
I like what your proposing here overall!
My only change would be Aquino in RF, Frazier in LF and Ervin/Siri in CF.
I’m using Winker as trade bait for Frazier, along with Galvis.
Senzel to 2B
I’m also looking to move Casali.
C position if you sign Grandal he plays 4-5 days a week, and then either T. Stephenson the other 2 days or Farmer the other 2 days until Tyler is deemed ready at AAA to come up to the majors.
I agree. Honestly I think if we can swing, Grandal, Gregorious and Ozuna as well as a top level pitcher to round out our top three we would be good. Then we would have some good long relievers as well that could start in a pinch or injury situation to one of our starters.
If the Reds front office can sign those three, it would be an insanely successful off-season. It would then open many trade possibilities from both the major and minor league rosters. The odds are against it, though it would be great.
Sign JasonCastro instead of Grandal, Iglesias instead of Gregorius, sign Scooter Gennett, Bumgarner, and a strong middle reliever. Sign Puig, Patterson, or Castellanos.
Dele CF Reyes (DET) from that list. Living up north of the “international border,” have seen enough of Reyes last couple years. Kept as a Rule 5 pick a year ago and was clueless out there, especially at the dish. Slight improvement in 2019, but showed no level of offense capability that would make him a viable OF candidate. He’s quick, plays hard. That’s about all I can say in the positive about him. I would be inclined to agree that Starling Marte is within affordability level and is an interesting candidate, but none of the above look to be a sure thing. Which gets us full circle to the discussion as to whether a healthy Senzel is still a higher outcome choice than any of the outside candidates. (Assuming that Betts is too pricey to be any kind of consideration.)
They need a fifth starter who goes beyond potential to performance. Certainly didn’t get that this year as every fifth day was essentially a loss. Maybe that is Mahle, or maybe his career highlights are minor league no hit and perfect games. Time to produce at the big league level; this year could be pivotal for him.
I enjoy your input Doc and respectfully disagree. 2018 I gave Mahle a pass. 2019 was the pivotal year and he failed at it. Too many walks and hits per nine innings with no signs of trending in a better direction as the season wore on. He had his chance, now time for someone else and put him in the bullpen.
Who replaces Disco?
NOBODY
I tend to think one thing that often gets overlooked is whether a free agent has experience on teams that routinely get to the playoffs. No statistic is going to show whether a player helps his club get to the post-season routinely but its obvious that some do. Yadier Molina is but one example.
For this reason, I am a big believer in Grandal. Yes he was on teams with amazing talent in L.A. but certain players help bring it together. Didi is another one. Yankees had some barren years early in the decade. Since Didi, they have made the post-season. Of course you have to discount this year because he didn’t play much but 2015-2018 he did. Howie Kendrick is another – he has been in the post-season an incredible number of years. Marcel Ozuna on the other hand scares me to think of Reds paying him 15-20M$/year. However, I’d be very happy with any 2 of these 3 players.
Jay – I love the effort but no-one is going to give up a young, controllable center fielder who is proven at the major league level for the last arbitration year of a pitcher with major injury history in Desclafani. It would take way more to get the top 4 of your list and probably all 7. I like the idea of a trade from the pitching staff, but it likely require someone like Lorenzen in addition to Desclafani. Would love to see Benintendi in GABP.
I think you likely should scratch your first 3 names. Regarding Tucker, Houston has all 4 of their top playing OF being FA after 2020: Springer, Reddick, Brantley, Marisnick. Tucker is the heir apperent to either Springer (if Houston not able to keep him) or Reddick.
Boston is in a similar scenario with Betts and Jackie Bradley as FA after 2020, so Boston will be hanging on Benintendi to be the OF anchor, given the supposed rumors of Boston under payroll pressure and Betts not open to signing an extension before his FA after 2020.
Dodgers are more likely to move Joc Pederson(also a FA after 2020), and keep the more offensively balanced Verdugo, while lowering payroll to keep that flexibility the Dodgers front office seems to be so keen on.
Now if the Reds offered Luis Castillo, then yes a trade could work but I don’t believe any Reds fan would be in favor of that. Ha.
Seager only has 2 years of control left though it would be awesome to see him as Reds SS. Pollock too injury prone for paying $51M over 3 years(including $5M buyout).
Wouldn’t Castellanos be a better fit for the Reds? He is much better defensively and is a smidge younger to boot. I know Ozuna is coming off a down year and I assume the Reds and everyone else will try to get a discount due to that. Or they will try to sign him to a one year deal (as Ozuna may prefer).
It may be a fun off season!!
Reds need 2 sign Didi, Grandal, get Roark as 5th starter, pick up Corey Dickerson LF, add a CF, sign Neil Walker as a platoon for Votto, & they can get Scooter cheap to back up Senzel who moves back to 2nd because his arm is not repaired for CF work, plus add some LH pitcher in relief, done