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After what looked like was going to be a brutal defeat last night, Eugenio Suarez gave everyone in Reds country a much-needed victory with a bomb to right field to give the Reds a 6-5 lead in the ninth inning.  I don’t believe for a second that his home run was only 433 feet.

The Reds (45-53) will try to do it again tonight against the Brewers (53-49), except with less drama. First pitch is 8:10 EDT from Miller Park.

Starting Pitchers

Name IP ERA FIP xFIP K% BB%
Tanner Roark 102.0 3.97 4.26 4.48 22.90% 7.50%
Zach Davies 109.2 2.79 4.30 5.18 14.80% 7.60%

REDS

I think he’ll get one more start in a Reds uniform after tonight, but it is possible this could be Tanner Roark’s last start as a Cincinnati Red. If the Reds are going to sell at the trade deadline (and they should), Roark is a prime candidate. His 3.97 ERA is the lowest it’s been since 2016, and he’s been a innings eater in the middle of the rotation. It’s hard not to imagine a team in playoff contention wouldn’t want Roark.

Of his 19 starts, only three have been under 5.0 innings. He’s also striking out more batters than in recent years. His K% is up about three percent from a year ago. Roark has been a little shaky recently, with a 7.16 ERA in July. However, one of those starts was at Coors Field. If you take away just three of the seven runs he gave up there, Roark has given up nine runs in 16.1 innings instead of 13 runs.

Roark hasn’t pitched well against the Brewers this season. In 11 innings, he has given up 12 hits and seven runs while striking out 11 and walking four. Especially watch out for the home run ball, as Roark has allowed seven home runs to the Brewers players with ten or more at-bats against him.

BREWERS

According to Fangraphs WAR, Zach Davies has been the Brewers’ third best pitcher this season, behind Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader. The Brewers have had a rough season in terms of pitching, but Davies has been one of the bright spots at times. He’s not a high strikeout–he pitches to contact instead, with a career high 83.5 Contact% this season. He’s always been that type of pitcher, but this season, he’s been even better. And July has been his best month. He’s given up only one earned run in three starts with nine strikeouts.

Davies has faced the Reds twice already in 2019. He pitched fairly well at Great American Ball Park in early April, going five innings and giving up two runs on four hits. But the Reds are also responsible for his worst start of 2019. On May 22, he gave up six runs on six hits in three innings.

Davies throws five pitches, but relies very heavily on his sinker (57.5%). This season, he did something different and started throwing his change up a lot more, while limiting his curve. In 2018, he threw his change up only 12.3% and his curve 16.3% of the time. In 2019, he has thrown his change up 28.9% and his curve only 3.6%. It’s paid off of him, as he has 30 strikeouts off the change up and has a Whiff% of 31.0%.

Here’s how the Reds have fared against Davies:

Bullpens

No words needed here. Except to say that Raisel Iglesias needs to find some resiliency and figure out what is going wrong this season.

In all seriousness, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why Iglesias is struggling so much. It’s obvious something is going on with his pitch mechanics or he wouldn’t be in this situation. But I think it’s also mental. If you keep failing at something you’re usually good at over and over again, it’s going to wear you down mentally. Iglesias is human, just like the rest of us. He’s not purposefully trying to lose games.

Lineups

REDS BREWERS
1. Nick Senzel (CF)
2. Joey Votto (1B)
3. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
4. Yasiel Puig (RF)
5. Jesse Winker (LF)
6. Scooter Gennett (2B)
7. Jose Iglesias (SS)
8. Ryan Lavarnway (C)
9. Tanner Roark (P)		 1. Lorenzo Cain (CF)
2. Christian Yelich (RF)
3. Yasmani Grandal (C)
4. Mike Moustakas (3B)
5. Ryan Braun (LF)
6. Eric Thames (1B)
7. Keston Hiura (2B)
8. Tyler Saladino (SS)
9. Zach Davies (P)

News and Notes

-Alex Wood made another rehab start last night. And the Chattanooga Lookouts snapped a 14-game (!!) losing streak.

-There was a minor roster move today.

-Here’s some pre-game reading for you:

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