Search
Home

The Reds (44-53) head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers (53-48) and finish a ten game stretch against division opponents. First pitch is at 8:10 EDT from Miller Park.

A week ago, I wrote the first game preview for the Cubs series, and I emphasized that it was time for the Reds to prove they could stay in the NL Central race. Well, it’s seven games later and the Reds did not take advantage of the opportunity that was before them. The Reds went 2-5 against the Cubs and Cardinals and are now nine games back in the NL Central. They could salvage this stretch against the Brewers and end up going 5-5, but it looks like it would end up being too late.

Starting Pitchers

Name IP ERA FIP xFIP K% BB%
Sonny Gray 103.1 3.40 3.36 3.37 28.6% 8.6%
Chase Anderson 77.1 3.96 4.30 4.90 22.9% 7.9%

REDS

Did you know that if you look at FIP and xFIP, Sonny Gray has been better than Luis Castillo this season? Even though Castillo has a 2.36 ERA, his FIP and xFIP are both around 3.75, compared to Gray’s 3.37 xFIP. According to Fangraphs, Gray’s 2.6 WAR is .2 higher than Castillo’s. While their strikeout and home run rates are nearly the same, Gray has a much better walk rate. His BB/9 is at 3.14. Castillo has struggled with walking batters at times, as his BB/9 of 4.35 is much higher.

The last time Gray faced the Brewers, he struck out 12 in eight innings at GABP. I was at that game and it’s already been filed in my memory of games that I’ll remember for a long time. He’s struck out 27 batters in 18.1 innings and three starts. His worst start against the Brewers was in June at Miller Park when he gave up four runs on six hits and four walks in 4.1 innings. Even in that game, he still struck out six and the Reds won 11-7.

Lorenzo Cain is 8-for-16 with a 1.141 OPS against Gray. Christian Yelich is 1-for-3 with a home run off him, but I think Yelich has a home run off almost every pitcher in the league these days.

BREWERS

Chase Anderson looks to be having almost the same exact season as last year with a 3.96 ERA in 2019, compared to a 3.93 ERA in 2018. However, he’s definitely improved from a year ago. His FIP this season has dropped from 5.22 last year to 4.30 in 2019. His K/9 has increased, while both his BB/9 and HR/9 have decreased. The HR/9 has seen the most dramatic decrease, going from 1.71 in 2018 to 1.28 in 2019. He’s given up only 11 home runs so far this season. He gave up 30 last season.

Anderson has five pitches, but throws mostly a four-seam fastball and a change-up. He’ll throw his cutter and sinker primarily to left-handed batters and his curve to right-handed batters.

Anderson has already faced the Reds twice this season, once at Miller Park and once at Great American Ball Park, and both have come in the last month. The start at GABP came more recently and he gave up five hits on two runs in five innings.

Joey Votto has walked eight times in 29 plate appearances against him. Eugenio Suarez is only 4-for-21, but has three home runs off him. Phillip Ervin and Nick Senzel are both 3-for-6 against him with a home run.

Bullpens

REDS

I don’t need to tell you about the Reds bullpen. You watched the Cardinals series. Raisel Iglesias is still giving up runs, even after being on paternity leave, and his ERA has climbed to 4.04. Amir Garrett is back and pitched an excellent one inning on Saturday.

BREWERS

The Brewers used five relievers in a win over the Diamondbacks Sunday after Brandon Woodruff lasted only three innings. They also used four relievers on Saturday and four relievers on Friday. (None of their starters lasted more than four innings in this series). It would be interesting to know if Brewers fans complain about their team’s relievers wearing out. The Brewers relievers have thrown 402.0 innings in 334 games, while Reds relievers have thrown 326.0 innings in 326 games. (I think Brewers relievers do throw more multiple inning appearances, but I haven’t looked at the stats lately).

Lineups

REDS BREWERS
1. Nick Senzel (CF)
2. Joey Votto (1B)
3. Eugenio Suarez (3B)
4. Yasiel Puig (RF)
5. Jose Peraza (2B)
6. Phillip Ervin (LF)
7. Jose Iglesias (SS)
8. Juan Graterol (C)
9. Sonny Gray (P)		 1. Lorenzo Cain (CF)
2. Christian Yelich (LF)
3. Yasmani Grandal (C)
4. Mike Moustakas (3B)
5. Keston Hiura (2B)
6. Eric Thames (RF)
7. Jesus Aguilar (1B)
8. Orlando Arcia (SS)
9. Chase Anderson (P)

Stat of the Day

I know batting average doesn’t mean much to a lot of people nowadays, but this is impressive. Joey Votto will likely join this group of pitchers one day. Yes, that means I am saying that Votto will be enshrined in Cooperstown.

News and Notes

Sal Romano was called up from Triple-A Louisville to take the place of Tyler Mahle who was placed on the 10-day injured list with a hamstring injury. Lucas Sims will start in the place of Mahle on Wednesday.

-It’s nothing official, but here’s somewhat of an update on Tucker Barnhart.

-First round pick Nick Lodolo gets promoted to Dayton. This makes it even more certain that I will have to make a trip to Dayton before their season ends.

-Narciso Crook was at Double-A Chattanooga at the end of April and now he’s winning awards at the Triple-A level.

-Watch the Reds Twitter account tonight for Jeopardy fun.

Copyright RedlegNation.com. All Rights Reserved. RedlegNation.com is an independent news source and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds, Major League Baseball, any of the Cincinnati Reds minor league affiliates or Minor League Baseball.