Let’s play a game. I will give you numbers and you guess which one doesn’t fit.
- 125, 114, 44
- 153, 153, 72
- 121, 123, 91
- 111, 113, 206, 80
- 109, 128, 28
First, I’ll tell you that each number set represents a player.
- Yasiel Puig
- Joey Votto
- Jesse Winker
- Derek Dietrich
- Eugenio Suarez
Second, I’ll tell you that the first number in each set is that player’s career wRC+.
Third, I’ll tell you that for everyone except Dietrich, the numbers separate the beginnings or ends of slumps from the rest of the season. Puig’s date is May 1, Votto’s is May 24, Winker’s is May 15, Suarez’s is June 1. For Dietrich, the last three numbers are his wRC+ for March/April, May, and June.
Yes. I have chosen arbitrary endpoints. Also, all endpoints are arbitrary in baseball. There is nothing special or magical that happens to a player’s ability at the end of a season. We break numbers there because they are convenient for us. But we could just as easily use rolling 150 game averages. In fact, let’s do that.
Puig – 110 wRC+
Votto – 112 wRC+
Winker – 118 wRC+
Dietrich – 117 wRC+
Suarez – 109 wRC+
Only Joey Votto has really been different from his career averages during that period. That’s to be expected given his place on the aging curve and the career-worst slump that’s part of his 150 game sample.
My least favorite thing about writing about baseball is the part where people scream at me that this or that player is done or should be signed to a long term deal or whatever based off of a hot or cold month. Baseball doesn’t work that way. It’s never worked that way.
At the beginning of the season, a lot of people thought Matt Kemp had to play because “he was an all-star last year.” And he was. He had a very good first half last year. It was also the only extended period of good play he’d had since 2014.
The best predictor of what a player will do moving forward isn’t what he did during the last 30 or 45 or 60 days. It’s the trend his career has followed. It’s his career numbers, with some adjustment for where he sits on the aging curve. All endpoints are arbitrary and that includes the ones we use at the ends and beginnings of seasons.
That ISO of .253 for June…yeah baby. Really makes me happy to see.
Last 14 days:
Puig – 210 wRC+
Votto – 177 wRC+
Winker – 180 wRC+
Senzel – 138 wRC+
Dietrich – 121 wRC+
Iglesias – 104 wRC+
Reds record: 7-6.
When you have a poor-mediocre team it doesn’t matter much who gets hot or when, you just don’t have enough talent to sustain any kind of long term success. The Reds have a stunning lack of organizational talent, and it will only be worse in 2020.
So…why watch? If you’re this down on the team, why do you even care?
I… this comment makes no sense. The Reds have been playing some very good teams the last few weeks. 7-6 against that group would be acceptable to anyone.
Acceptable only to .500 teams or those hoping to be.
No. Literally no, Mason R. To be 7-6 against teams over .500 is REALLY good. Every year, several teams make the playoffs with losing records against winning teams. This stuff drives me nuts because it feels like you’re just making knee-jerk comments and not looking stuff up. Stuff that is readily available.
The point of this is the talk all of April was, “Man, look at this pitching staff. If we can get the bats going, look out because we are going to get on a run.” Well, over the past 14 days the bats got going and they only managed a 7-6 record.
If you play 7-6 all season, sure, that’s an 87 win team. But the Reds dug themselves a hole with the 1-8 start. When you get the kind of production you’re getting out of Puig/Votto/Winker/Senzel you can’t waste it on a 7-6 run.
It’s the inverse of the month of April; they gave up fewer than 3.5 runs per game for the month of April and went 11-16.
Who you play isn’t all that relevant. They’re 3-7 against the Pirates for crying out loud. They took a 3-4 homestand L against Pittsburgh and Washington. They’ve established they can lose to anyone (except maybe Miami).
The point is, when you get 3-4 hitters who put up some of their best numbers at the same time you have to do better than 7-6 because, as Jim is pointing out, the hitters aren’t going to hit like that all year.
I completely understand wanting the Reds to be good. I very much want to root for a winning team. I don’t understand insisting they are good when they aren’t.
Last 14 days:
Puig – 210 wRC+
Votto – 177 wRC+
Winker – 180 wRC+
Senzel – 138 wRC+
Dietrich – 121 wRC+
Iglesias – 104 wRC+
Reds record: 7-6.
When you have a poor-mediocre team it doesn’t matter much who gets hot or when, you just don’t have enough talent to sustain any kind of long term success. The Reds have a stunning lack of organizational talent, and it will only be worse in 2020.
Who in the farm system can help the team in 2020?
Not a ton on the farm for 2020. Maybe Aquino? VanMeeter could perhaps play a role. Trammel isn’t crushing in AA but that league is pitcher friendly. Thing is though, the Reds have a fair amount of money coming off the books. They could go the FA route to add at least 2 good players or 1 great player. Get to the playoffs any way you can. Once there freaking anything can happen.
6/26/2018 REDS 33 wins 46 losses
6/25/2019 REDS 36 wins 41 losses
All the words, all the hope, and all the angst for +3 wins after 77 games.
One of those analytical dudes in the basement will be telling Bob what those 3 wins cost the team and the bottom line so far this year.
Big Bob doesn’t have a lot to be proud of for the increase in payroll.
Just a random thought…
But I’ll take a team 5 games under .500 (this year) vs a team 13 games under .500 (last year) — just a random thought….
Consistency of the type you imply doesn’t really exist. All players have ups and downs. That’s the point of the post. You could do this for essentially any five players from any team. Even Mike Trout has “cold” stretches and “hot” stretches relative to his career numbers. Go look it up. (Note: Cold for Mike Trout is still better than almost everyone else)
I was just going to say that. Almost all players are streaky to some extent.