When a team has an 8-0 lead in the 3rd, they have a 98.8% chance of winning.

When they lead 10-3 in the 5th, they have a 99.0% chance of winning.

When they lead 11-7 in the 7th inning, they have a 97% chance to win.

When they’re ahead 11-10 with two outs in the 9th, they have a 96.4% chance.

Reds 11 – Giants 12 | Game 31 of 162

Box Score | Win Probability | Exit Velocity | Pitch Velocity

Run Prevention

Sonny Gray made it through five innings. He struck out two and walked three. The fact that he qualified for a Win tonight, but not in his previous five starts when he’d struck out 36 batters and walked four should tell you what you need to know about the value of pitcher Wins. And should make you wonder why certain broadcasters spend so much time babbling about it. Gray looked good the first three innings, but struggled with control in the final two. He was pulled after throwing 82 pitches. 

Wandy Peralta pitched the 6th. He gave up four hits and four earned runs. The Giants managed five singles in the 8th inning off of Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias, scoring three runs before Iglesias struck out Brandon Crawford to end the threat. 

Raisel Iglesias retired the first two batters in the 9th before Stephen Vogt hit a 97-mph fastball 386 feet into the Moon Deck in right field to tie the game 11-11. 

Jared Hughes pitched a clean 10th inning with two strikeouts. Hughes wasn’t as effective in the 11th, giving up a leadoff homer to Evan Longoria. 

The Reds played good defense. Joey Votto saved a run in the 3rd inning diving for a ball down the line. Derek Dietrich contributed with the glove when he laid out to his left for a ground ball that would have been a bases-loaded single. Nick Senzel chased down a ball over his head in deep center. 

Run Production

Have a night, Nick Senzel! Derek Dietrich! Jeff Brantley called the shot. Called ’em both.

“This should be a good match-up for Dietrich,” said the Reds broadcaster as Derek Dietrich settled into the batter’s box in the bottom of the 1st inning against the Giants starting pitcher Tyler Beede. “Dietrich is good fastball hitter and he likes them outside where he can get his arms extended. And Tyler Beede is a young pitcher who will probably be reluctant to pitch inside.” 

Just as The Cowboy finished that statement, Dietrich drilled the third pitch of the at bat 348 feet into the right field bleachers. The homer drove in Jesse Winker and Yasiel Puig who had singled. In the bottom of the third, Dietrich blasted a Beede pitch for another 3-run homer. This time Dietrich hit it 410 feet deep into the right-center seats.  

In addition to Dietrich’s bombs, Jesse Winker had three hits including two doubles. Yasiel Puig had two hits. Kyle Farmer had two hits, including his fourth homer of the year. Tucker Barnhart, batting ninth, had two walks. Jose Iglesias had two hits. 

Nick Senzel was 1-5 with two walks and strikeout. Senzel’s single in the 9th inning dribbled about 30 feet down the 3rd base line.

At least that’s out of the way. Senzel showed excellent plate discipline during long at bats his first two trips to the plate and also later in the game. It was good to see it. Senzel has always had a superb 10+% walk-rate in the minor leagues, but he hadn’t walked a single time in 39 PA in spring training.   

The Reds offense showed a sign of life tonight with 13 hits and 3 homers. It was evident they weren’t facing Jacob deGrom and 100-mph Noah Syndergaard fastballs. 

What’s Next

The Reds (13-19) and Giants (14-18) play again tomorrow night at 7:10 PM ET. The starting pitching matchup features starting pitchers Tanner Roark and Dereck Rodriguez (26, RHP).