The Reds offense was dominated for most of the night in San Diego by Padres’ pitching. The Reds at one point had 16 consecutive batters retired and had just three hits entering the 11th inning. It only took one mighty swing off the bat by Derek Dietrich to change the outcome of this game. Dietrich destroyed a 3-1 pitch into the right field seats to give the Reds a 3-1 lead. Zack Duke and Michael Lorenzen finished off another outstanding night of Reds pitching to secure the Reds second consecutive win.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego Padres (11-10) | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Cincinnati Reds (7-12) | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| W: Hughes (2-0) L: Stammen (2-1) S: Lorenzen (1) | |||
| FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Biggest Play of the Game
According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Derek Dietrich’s 2-run home run with 1 out in the top of the 11th inning, giving the Reds a 3-2 lead. That play increased the Reds chances of winning by 36.6% (from 56.1% to 92.7%).
Positives
Anthony DeSclafani had a big bounce-back start: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K. Disco attacked the hitters mostly on the outer-half of the plate, and it worked tonight. It is amazing what the Reds starters continue to do so far in 2019.
How about Derek Dietrich? He now has 5 homers in just 40 at-bats. I have literally no idea how the Reds signed this dude on a minor league contract.
Eugenio Suarez got the Reds started off right with a first inning home run. It was his 4th bomb of the season.
Raisel Iglesias is back! Raisel struck out the side in his only inning of work (the bottom of the 9th), and he looked absolutely nasty in the process.
Yasiel Puig went 1 for 4, but his best swing of the night resulted in a out. Puig hit a ball 388 feet with an exit velocity of 102.2 MPH. The ball had an expected batting average of .700, but resulted in an out on a nice catch by Myers.
Wandy Peralta pitched a perfect 8th inning, striking out 2. Peralta has yet to allow a run in 7.1 inning this season.
Negatives
The Reds only collected 4 hits in 11 innings. This offense overall is just brutal right now. Kemp and Winker were both 0 for 4. Dietrich really saved them.
Not so random thoughts………..
The Reds are now just 4.0 games behind the Brewers (the Pirates are in first place by a game….but they aren’t winning the division). It could be so much worse for the Reds right now in the standings than it is. Dare I say the Reds are back in the mix?
In today’s edition of your eyes can be deceiving: Wil Myers had a terrific over the shoulder catch, robbing Jose Peraza of extra bases. Statcast only had the expected average of that Peraza flyout at .260. Myers is a first-baseman playing centerfield, so it sounds like he made that catch look way more difficult than it was.
Up Next:
Reds at Padres
Saturday, 8:40 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Luis Castillo (1.46 ERA/2.33 FIP) vs Eric Lauer (4.91 ERA/4.51 FIP)
You are fun.
I personally don’t blame someone for being upset with those stats.
Some people don’t accept mediocrity (or less in the Reds’ case), and expect more. I am the same way, in real life you don’t always get a trophy… even if that concept isn’t “fun” to grasp.
I live in Miami, been following the Marlins from their beginning. I knew Dietrich was a real good signing, because he was an impactful player off the bench with timely hitting, playing multi-positions on the field, and plenty of HBPs. Glad DD is a Red!
I think DD is well-suited for about 300 ABs. His defensive limitations start to show when he plays every day, and he is better against RH pitching.
I sure wasn’t surprised when I checked the box score this morning that it was DD with the homer.
As long as the pitching is at this level the Reds are “in the mix”. No way the offense doesn’t stabilize somewhere near avg’s. If the pithere continue to give the O a chance then more wins will come. Pitching wins in baseball.
You don’t really seem to enjoy baseball. Lighten up and enjoy the W.
Maybe he enjoys good baseball. Yes it was a win but this isn’t a good baseball team.
The offensive should improve if only Senzel is brought up and inserted as leadoff playing CF, leaving Puig in RF and Kemp/Winker in LF. Once Gennett is back Dietrich should take over LF. Winker should be sent down and Kemp traded or DFA.
Send Winker down and have Dietrich playing in LF every day? Lol no. Did you see his attempt at a catch two nights ago? I like him a lot as a pinch hitter and backup in the infield but if you think he should be starting over Winker I don’t know what to tell you. Winker has been so much better than his stats look and over the course of the season he will be great.
On what basis is Senzel the saviour? Forty four games in AAA about nine months ago? Hasn’t faced live pitching in meaningful games in that long and it is assumed he will step right in and carry a team comprised of players who have performed at the major league level? Had a chance to win the CF job in ST and was out-performed offensively by both Schebler and Ervin. Let the kid get some games under his belt in Louisville before burdening him with carrying this team on his back.
Rock on
Great win! I have no problem staying up until 1am to watch an extra innings victory. Really need to get at least 1 more in San Diego.
In other news, the Reds team BABIP is .217. Dead last in all of baseball and it’s not even close. That can’t possibly continue over the course of a whole season. Even the unluckiest of teams usually end up with a BABIP in the .280 range. It’s just a matter of time before the bats heat up. At least that’s what I’m telling myself.
They were about 2-for-29 last night on balls in play. They were 2-for-21 on Thursday night. 4-for-50 is hard to do.
Part of it, though, is that many hitters are in legitimate slumps; they don’t get the good part of the bat on the ball, so they shouldn’t expect much “luck.”
Agreed. I don’t have the exit velocity stats in front of me, but the eye test indicates a lot of outs on weak grounders and lazy fly balls.
Derek Dietrich exemplifies why I’m not a big believer in wins above replacement as a stat. I think it’s an ok stat, but definitely not one that should be relied on nearly as heavily as it is. Case in point, Dietrich probably has a .4 or .5 WAR right now. But in real life, his WAR would be three. As in, we have now won three games that we wouldn’t have had a replacement player been in there for him. Baseball games are whole entities. You shouldn’t get credit for a .2 for a couple homers in a 14-6 loss. And if you have an Iglesias 9th inning against LA, that should get you -1, in that, he lost the team a game they would have won without him. Love the guy, just using his outing to illustrate my point
I agree with your comments. Stats like WAR are sometimes deceiving IMO. Some players just have a knack for delivering in key situations even though their overall stats aren’t that great. Personally I think baseball has become over saturated with stats especially at the FO level when trying to predict the value of young players. I think they still should be watched playing the game instead of analyzing the plethora of stats.
You are looking for WPA or Win Probability Added which was listed in this article and is basically a “clutch” stat. It calculates the likelihood a specific game is won by a player’s actions. Dietrich leads the team with .5. Schebler is at -1.0. For reference the MLB leader right now is Yelich at 1.8.
WPA isn’t a measure of skill. Luis Castillo for example has a WPA of -.2 because he hasn’t made a lot of specific plays that would turn a lost game into a win, which you can blame on run support.
Without the HR what happened before hand wouldn’t have mattered. A debate like this is akin to which came first,the chicken or the egg. Which is appropriate considering it’s Easter weekend.
Dietrich also leads all Reds hitters in WAR at the moment…..
Slop? A description of the Great Game I’ve never heard before. With good pitching and 143 games to go, it’s a little early to count the Reds out of a chance at the playoffs.
Duke faced three hitters and walked one. Tatis got 2 SBs off him, but his run wasn’t that important. Lorenzen retired one of the two hitters he faced.
I will concede he isn’t Trevor Hoffman, but I can get too down on Duke for that job.
@Matt Hendley He stole third without a pitch because the defense was shifted and there was no one covering third. That literally had nothing to do with Duke. I was nervous since I don’t think he has been great but I think he did pretty well
Tom Mitsoff got us two straight wins with his game-thread write-ups, and we revert to Kiss-of-Death Kirby for the Recap?
Troubling… More so than our hitting right now.
Who is coaching this board? Why would you go to a reliever in that situation?
Feels like Thursday night when they pulled Stephenson after the 7th
Never fear, Tom has the preview for tonight, as well!
Thankfully, something we haven’t said in a long time is saving this team: outstanding pitching! Never thought I’d say that. The offense is brutal. Except for Peraza’s blast for an out, most are K’s or rather routine. At some point we have to start hitting…right?
Agreed. Their starting pitching is legit. And if they don’t have a chance at winning the division, the Reds probably don’t either.
This is a good team that is hitting poorly.
Defensive deficiencies withstanding, this roster is so much better than in past years with Gennett, Senzel, Ervin in the wings.
This team will get hot offensively soon.
Agree 100% Old-school but I have never ever saw a whole team look so bad at the plate at the same time.Its hard to imagine winning these last two games by having a total of 9 hits but it does point out when you hit homers you win more then you lose.Five of the nine hits have left the yard and well that’s what we need to do especially when we play at home.Hats off to absolutely great starting pitching so far this year even without Wood.Lets get started early tonight and put up some runs and let Castillo do what he does.Go Reds.
I’m convinced there has just been a lot of bad luck. The only player on the team who isn’t hitting significantly worse than last year is Barnhart. I don’t believe that 11 guys all just suddenly became much much worse at baseball than 6 months ago.
Relying on the HR ball is a trait that’s been tagged onto the Dodgers during Ward’s tenure (rightly or wrongly).
If that was his philosophy and he’s trying to duplicate it here, it all comes down to if our team are natural HR hitters. If not, the philosophy probably fails in spectacularly.
7 pitchers…
That is why I wanted Stephenson to pitch the 8th and possibly the 9th on Thursday. He was dealin
Instead, we burned Amir and Raisel. We used 5 pitchers in a game we controlled.
If you are going to be competitive, you need to win some games even when some things are not working. This game was an example of that. Go Reds.
Matt, you’ll need to share what has you so down on Hosmer. It is a clear theme the past couple of days. 🙂