Tyler Mahle struggled early and the Reds trailed 4-0 after two innings. That would be more than enough for Kenta Madeda and the Dodgers as the Reds offense could never get anything going tonight. The Reds have now lost 3 straight games immediately following their four game win streak.

Final R H E
Los Angeles Dodgers (11-8) 6 13 0
Cincinnati Reds (5-11) 1 4 0
W: Maeda (3-1) L: Mahle (0-1)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Tyler Mahle allowing a 2-run home run to Joc Pederson with 2 outs in the 2nd inning, giving the Dodgers a 3-0 lead. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 16.5% (from 34.3% to 17.8%).

Positives

Derek Dietrich drew two walks tonight. He only had one walk through his first 34 PA of the season. He also had a 10 pitch AB in the 9th inning.

Jared Hughes pitched a perfect inning, striking out 2 batters. He entered tonight with an 8.10 ERA, so that was good to see.

Negatives

Tyler Mahle gave up a career high 11 hits. He was not fooling anyone early and consistently fell behind in the count. Mahle did settle down and got through 6 innings. He impressively did not walk anyone all night despite some command issues.

Jose Peraza continues to look lost at the plate. He went 0-4 and is now hitting .154/.170/.231. Peraza entered today seeing 3.22 pitches per PA, which is the 3rd worst in the MLB. I don’t want to give up on Peraza because he had a really poor start last year, but if he doesn’t start turning it around the Reds might need to bench him vs RHP in favor of Iglesias at SS and Dietrich at 2B.

Zach Duke struggled again as he allowed 2 runs. Duke continues to fall behind in the count and is getting burned because of it.

Not so random thoughts……

I have been a big fan of David Bell and his analytic approach this season, but there was one move tonight that I thought was absolutely bizarre. The Reds had the bases loaded in the top of the 4th inning with two outs and Mahle due up. Bell has been known for his quick hook early, but for some reason he allowed Mahle to hit for himself. That would end up being the Reds only real chance to get back in the game.

Up next:

Reds at Dodgers
Wednesday, 3:10 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Sonny Gray (2.03 ERA/2.32 FIP) vs Walker Buehler (8.25 ERA/4.22 FIP)

20 Responses

  1. da bear

    Only two teams began season 1-8 and made playoffs, including 1995 Reds. Season was lost within first 6% of season. Best to use this season preparing for next season. Bring up the value of Scooter once healthy then trade him. Hope Kemp catches fire then trade him. Votto can’t be moved, just live with his bloated remaining five years and hope for the best. Tell him to communicate with his pitchers and stop creating balks. Work Senzel in ASAP once healthy, and prep Stevenson and possibly Garrett despite his preferences for starting next year. Get Reed and Romano up to see if they can be bullpen pieces. Tell Peraza to walk at least 10 times in his next 60 ABs or he becomes a utility player.

    2019 is lost. 2020 depends upon what is done now.

  2. Scott Gennett

    We’re getting closer to the point that FO either starts to make some roster/coaches moves or they give the season up. The OF offensive has been a bust, Senzel and Ervin should be brought up as soon as possible to replace Kemp and Schebler, assuming that Winker and Puig will get better. Until Gennett recovers, Iglesias and Dietrich should man the IF. The problem is neither Iglesias nor Peraza represent any offensive threat, maybe they should think about deploying Senzel at 3B, Gennett at 2B and move Suarez back to SS. Lastly, Duke has no business in the majors anymore.

  3. Reddawg12

    Man, after all the offseason moves and excitement, all the build-up and anticipation, it seems as if it’s just another typical, last place season rounding into form for the Reds. So disappointing.

    • Mason Red

      Well the new phrase being tossed around is “bridge season”. Success is just down the road. Continue to be patient. More prospects will come when the players traded for in the offseason are unloaded. The magical season is now 2020.

  4. CincyBorn23

    Signing Zach Duke was probably the worst move of the offseason.

  5. Ghettotrout1

    I had real hope for this season but I now realize this team just doesn’t seem to have what it takes to be good Kemp is garbage and Votto has zero power. I hope they make the playoffs at some point before I die.

  6. Roger Garrett

    No hitting means we lose and I always felt we weren’t as good on offense.Scooter and Senzel make a big difference when they arrive but for now Dietrich must play every day,Irvin needs called up and he plays and Casali needs at least 50% of the time behind the plate.Peraza,Tucker and Schebler aren’t doing anything offensively and we need to be able to score.Starting pitching numbers say we are pretty good but unless this offense move in to a top 5 spot in runs scored its 2020 as Red said.

  7. FreeHouse

    Kevin Gregg, Jason Marquis, Ross Ohlendorf, Gallardo and Duke all sound the same or bring the same just a different season. Don’t tell me Duke is better than Reed or Big Sally. Cut Duke don’t matter if it’s a high or low leverage situation he’s still going to stink.

    • wizeman

      Romano getting lit up in Louisville.

  8. No it’s not me

    Bingo ,if your in last place in spring training your not ready for season.Ward ,Johnson their not bad coaches but I would be an outstanding batting coach in LA right now.The 4 or 5 wins in the spring we’re produced with Irvan ,Siri and mostly minors. Who woulda figured these results?Hell, everyone is giddy over Puig ,he’s a great personality ,but if your rung up ,or swing and miss get off the field in a hurry,it’s an embarrassing slow slink back to dugout.

  9. Reaganspad

    The problem is that Senzel needs to come up and play 4 positions…

    the game turned before the home run. 2 plays at second base that DD 1) could not get to and 2) could not make led to the 4-0 deficit. DD and Scooter are not known for their defense, but Phillips makes both of those plays.

    Those plays extended the pitches that Mahle had to throw in the first 2 innings and I think caused his nibbling. Confidence in the gloves behind you is a big dang deal for a pitcher.

    I think that Senzel needs to be brought up to play 2nd base. We have a lot of holes, fix the most important one now.

    There was not a ball hit to CF that was a difference maker and Winker performed well. Not saying that he is Trammell or Siri out there, but last night’s game was lost at 2nd base

  10. Big Ed

    When playing teams other than the Marlins, the Reds are 2-11. Even having played the Marlins, they have the 28th best record in baseball.

    Puig, though energetic, has been a dud, with a .561 OPS. Puig, Peraza, Winker and Kemp are all at or below the Mendoza Line. Winker has shown some power, but all his homers have been in the front row of a short left-field porch. Suarez is the only Reds regular who is doing his job offensively. Dietrich, I suppose, but even he has only a .316 OBP.

    The Reds are painfully slow, dull and unathletic; they are last in the NL in stolen bases, but first in caught stealing. Iglesias is great defensively; Barnhart is acceptable, and every single other player is below average. They are 28th in MLB in batting average, and 29th in BB drawn. They are T26th in runs scored, and would be 29th but for facing Wei-Yin Chin when he took one for the team and gave up 10 runs.

    The Reds are at least 5 years into a rebuild, and yesterday they started a 35-year-old and a 34-year-old, and their two relievers were 33-year-old Hughes and Zach Duke, who turns 36 on Friday. Nobody under 25 starts, or won’t once Jose Peraza turns 25 in 2 weeks. Joey Votto is a shadow of his MVP self; he had a OPS last year against lefties that was lower than Peraza’s. His strikeout rate is soaring. He doesn’t consistently hit the ball with authority anymore; as a result, teams will continue to pound the strike zone on him, and his vaunted on-base ability will diminish. Pitchers do not fear his bat any more.

    What price Nick Senzel?

    Other than Senzel, there is little offensively in the minors that could help the Reds this year. Trammell looks like the real deal, and is off to a great start in AA, but we can count on the Reds to hold him back in AAA next year, to make the Nashville Reds better in . . . wait for it . . . 2026.

    But we’ll watch them anyway. It’s our lot in life.

    • Big Ed

      Votto had a .781 OPS post-All Star last year. (Granted, Ryan Madson can take some credit for that.) He is at .735 so far this year. Against lefties last year, it was .758. Yeah, he’s off to a slow start, but isn’t it reasonable to wonder if that is the new normal for him?

      I don’t get the roster fit for Kemp at all. Never did. Any AB he gets is better used on a much younger player. Can’t run, can’t field, can’t hit. Doesn’t want to be here. DFA him. Somebody may pick him up and pay him $500k for the rest of the year. That will be a victory for the Reds.

  11. Alex

    I mean, we think the reds FO has been unsuccessful but I don’t think big Bob feels that way. If it’s about putting a good product on the field,
    they are horrible failures in every way, but the aim is money. The team stopped paying Homer and will get way cheaper next year when like 65 millions comes off the books. Picked up some buzz with Puig. Steve outlined how they made 37 million last year despite 95 losses. Again guys, this has nothing to do with winning, it’s about making money and by that measure, big Bob would say they have been successful.

    I think fans have to realize that winning and making lots of money are not exclusive to one another. The reds will make a profit this year and the value of the team will continue to rise because of all the cost saving measures they are implementing.

    They’ll pay lip service to some big free agent signing next off-season, sign middling guys and suck again, but will make lots of money again. Rinse and repeat.

  12. BigRedMike

    No hitting makes it painful. 2-11 against non Marlins teams.
    Schebler is a 4th or 5th OF at best, yet, the Reds seemed to think he is a starter.
    Peraza regressing right now, which will happen with no ability to walk.
    Journeymen playing significant roles, Dietrich and Iglesias.
    Votto likely slowing down
    Kemp getting significant amount of AB’s

    The Dodgers would not take Kemp or Puig back if MLB allowed 2 extra roster spots and the Reds paid the salary.

    Bullpen is just not well constructed. Building a bullpen is a challenge though due to the variance in results for relievers season to season.

  13. Mason Red

    Even if he is their best pure hitter he couldn’t have saved this mess. Eventually this team will hit but they will be completely and totally out of it by then. But that means those hitting well who are a part of “the bride” and not part of the future will be traded. Such is life with this franchise.

  14. Joey

    73-89… Craig Counsel’s first full season as a coach. When he took over the year before he also had a losing season. There are differences but also a lot of similarities between Bell, Counsell, the Reds and the Brewers. Let’s be a little patient here.

  15. Mike Adams

    You are right! Let’s dump Bell while we are at it.

    Duke, Kemp and Peraza are out of here too.

    Pitching coach should go due to bullpen but since the starters are doing better we will keep him with a caveat: perfection every appearance but with continual improvement thereafter for all pitchers.

    FO and owners have to go too since the Reds haven’t won all their games this year.

    Fans’ attendance has been way too low so they have to suffer also, say let’s double concession and ticket prices.

    Stadium staff probably bloated for the attendance so lay half of them off.

    Cut all those injured guys, they are just laying around wasting roster space and healing oh, so slowly.

    Oh, yeah throw in Thom! Brennaman from the broadcast team.

    Have I left anyone out?