The Reds announced via Twitter:

The have acquired LHP Alex Wood, OF Matt Kemp, OF Yasiel Puig, IF/C Kyle Farmer and cash from the Dodgers in exchange for RHP Homer Bailey and minor leaguers IF Jeter Downs and RHP Josiah Gray.

The cash is reportedly $7 million. The Dodgers are expected to release Bailey.

Wood, Kemp and Puig are all one-year players who qualify for free agency in 2020.

Using estimates of arbitration awards for Wood and Puig, plus Kemp’s $21.75 million contract, the Reds have taken on $42 million in new payroll for 2019, minus the $23 million of Bailey’s contract. With the $7 million in cash from the Dodgers, this increases the Reds payroll to about $116 million. That leaves a lot of room for further acquisitions.

Check back here for updates and analysis.

103 Responses

  1. matt hendley

    2 Words, Dallas Kutchel…oh and i think the Website is Crashing

    • Matthew

      Better hope Dallas doesn’t read the comments here. He definitely won’t want to sign after being reminded of that fateful day when a bystander not named Chad Dotson called him Dallas Kutchel!!

      • ToBeDetermined

        So you listen to the podcasts too. Love it

  2. DeathTaxesandJoeyVottoonBase

    What’s up with every big move always happening right after the podcast gets posted

  3. AMWills

    So does this mean Schebler/Winker could possibly be a headliner in a trade for a guy like Kluber? Both corner outfielders, a position of need for the Indians, and they are young, controllable players. I would say something along the lines of Schebler, Robert Stephenson and then another mid-level prospect to start with in exchange for Kluber?

    Also, does anyone know the extent of the talks with Keuchel for the team? I honestly think we are just one or two good SP’s away from being a contending team. I like a rotation of Kluber, Keuchel, Castillo, Descalafani, Roark/Wood, just saying.

    • Sabr Chris

      Senzel/Trammel will be the headliner for Kubler with Schebler/Winker being the second piece plus another top 15 prospect

      • AMWills

        Wishful thinking, I guess. I’m new to this whole “favorite team actually making good trades” thing 😉

      • matt hendley

        Senzel/Trammel, Kemp, 15-30 Prospect for Kluber

    • Jbrat22

      Schebler/Winker wouldn’t be enough as a headliner for Kluber. I’d love for the Reds to hang on to their big-3 prospects and deal from the major-league team, though. Iglesias + Winker + India, maybe?

    • gary

      If senzel and or trammel are not included in kluber deal it aint happening.

  4. Ethan L

    I think this is decent deal for the Reds. Puig and Kemp are just as good as Billy Hamilton in terms of fWAR. I hope they don’t become a distraction, a very likely occurrence. IMO, they’re both overrated and have huge egos. I hope Bell manages them for who they are now as players, not based on their over-hyped names.

    I like the Wood pick up. Too bad we only have one year of control, but the price we paid was really favorable. We hardly lost a thing.

    • Chad Jones

      Turner Ward is very close with Puig. I would think he’d have let the FO know if he though Puig or Kemp would be trouble. I’m sure both will love playing in GABP.

    • Sabr Chris

      Including Roark, Reds have gotten better, while still leaving room to add significant salary, retain all their top 5 prospects, and added no contract commitments beyond 2019. Now I’m not planning a playoff road trip yet, but I like how this offseason is going.

      • Michael E

        Good summary and I agree. This is good moves to TRY and become competitive.

        Two new SPs, both probably better than any we were going to roll out in 2019, so that slides all those SP3/4/5 types down to where they SHOULD be… a good thing. If Wood is healthy, he an Roark should both be above average SPs for the Reds. If we add an Ace, then yes, we most definitely can contend with this offense and much improved pitching (and a new improved pitching coach that should improve the struggling young pitchers quite a bit).

        Add that we now have REAL offense in all three OF spots, instead of two spots and a giant sucking sound and we have improved the lineup, improve the pitching (already) greatly and only lost a step on defense in CF and gave up two moderate-to-low ceiling prospects…nothing but good things here.

        While I’d like to keep the “big 3” prospects, I have NO trouble trading ONe of them in a package for an Ace with multiple years of control. Kluber or Bauer would make the Reds immediate NL Central contenders and thus NL contenders. The Brewers can hit, but pitching is merely adequate and the Cubs, about the same. The Reds would have scoring near same level and likely similar pitching as Milwaukee has no ace and the Cubs have a potential regression ace in Hamels.

    • Brymo

      Really? Billy Hamilton WAR was 0.3 last year, his lifetime batting average is .245 and his lifetime on base percentage is .298, let me repeat that his lifetime OBP is .298. I like Billy, he seems like a nice guy with lots of energy and is great defensively but we need players that can produce. That is why everyone is so hot to get rid of him.

  5. Old-school

    Merry Christmas. Give the FO credit for change. It does seem more moves are coming though

  6. Klugo

    Okay. Is this a shrewd move by a billionaire trying to put butts in seats, or a precursor for more? This definitely makes us better in ’19. Don’t know if it’s enough to compete, but maybe. Only if Young Guns II is better than Young Guns I.
    Does this mean they didn’t think much of Downs and Gray?
    Who plays: Schebler or Winker? Does this regulate Winker back to the pine, or is the AllStar Kemp or Puig going to be a bench bat?
    A lot to unpack this early Xmas.

    • Sabr Chris

      Kemp tailed off in the second half and is likely a platoon player with Winker. Puig could play in center. Plus this gives us the outfield depth to make an additional move.

    • matt hendley

      It’s an actual legit outfield rotation.

    • Chris Miller

      Winker is an everyday player. Seems people forget how this offense collapsed last year when he went down with injury. Winker is so unbelievably underrated. I’d rather have Winker than Trammel at this point. Winker is so much like Casey was. He wakes up knowing how to hit.

      • matt hendley

        DItto although I would like both in the OF in 2020.

      • doctor

        It was more than just Winker being gone that the offense tanked. Schebler was also out with injury, Duvall was traded and Votto went down for a couple weeks after being beaned in the knee.

  7. Andy

    Incredible.
    They turned the remainder of Bailey’s disaster contract into an overpaid but still useful Kemp. (Reds save 1.5M in 2019 and 5M in 2020.) This is great. Kemp is not worth that money but since the money is owed one way or another, Kemp will bring more value back. I think Reds are utterly thrilled that anyone was interested in something like this.

    Then Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray for Alex Wood and Alex Puig.
    Alex Wood becomes the current best pitcher.. last 2 years total 6WAR (for the stat guys) or 25-10 for those that still love W/L. He is an extension candidate, the Reds should explore this.
    Puig becomes the Reds best outfielder and also an extension candidate. He is a classic buy-low candidate, 28 years old coming off a down year but 3 different 3+WAR seasons before that.

    The Reds I think now are a fringe 2019 playoff candidate and could be more if Keuchel or Kluber still happen. Given the outfield now consists of Puig in RF, 3 left fielders and no center fielders, I suspect something else is coming, possibly Winker as part of Kluber deal.

    Current Lineup – no real holes, with either half of Schebler/Kemp and Senzel on bench.
    Winker LF
    Puig RF
    Votto 1B
    Suarez 3B
    Gennett 2B
    Kemp/Schebler CF
    Peraza SS
    Barnhart C

    Rotation: Wood/Roark/Castillo/(Disco/Stephenson/Reed/Lorenzen/whoever).
    Light years better than last year but not scaring anyone, especially in a playoff series.

    Kluber is the Ace this team is missing. We now have an extra starter caliber outfielder and second basemen that could be included in a package without hurting too much. Keuchel is probably plan B… not as good as Kluber, more expensive from a $$ perspective, but would leave the cupboard as stacked as it already is.

    I am now excited. Without any more trades/deals, the Reds are a solid competitive team with an electric lineup, quality bullpen, good bench, and solid but unspectacular rotation. With one more pitching deal, they are legit contenders.

    • Sabr Chris

      I doubt they’ll look to extend anyone yet, especially Puig. Until they see how they perform and fit in the Clubhouse. I’d like to see a move or two to added quality flex pitching.
      I don’t think they should sell the farm to get an “ace”, as I expect Castillo will be considered one by the need of the year…now pass me more of the koolaid.

    • Old-school

      At $115 payroll…. Trade scooter and his $11 million for a top reliever and sign kuechel when he comes down to 4 years .. overpay the 4…. But don’t give in to 5. As Doug says. . Let Senzel play on the dirt because he can. Winker/ Puig/ Schebler in the OF with a steady dose of Matt Kemp as a platoon and power bat off the bench. Phil Ervin is #5.

      Keuchel Wood Castillo Roark and Disco would be a solid 5.

      Senzel 2b
      Votto 1b
      Suarez 3b
      Schebler LF
      Puig CF
      Winker RF
      Barnhart C
      Peraza SS

      Casali/Kemp/blandino/Ervin bench with huge flexibility in Kemp and Senzel and perhaps Joe.

      • Andy

        I think the Reds are good enough now that I don’t really want to trade Scooter, not for a bullpen piece. I do want to see Senzel play, but I think this year Scooter will be better, and Senzel (and Kemp, for that matter) give the Reds two starter quality players to fill in when someone important goes on the DL.

        Reds are a better team if Scooter/Senzel and Kemp/Schebler are used as platoon players. I think with the starters added (and presumably still coming), the bullpen will get some quality arms that failed as starters, and still have quality pieces from last year.

        IF scooter is a necessary piece in a Kluber deal, then I’m all over it.

  8. gusnwally

    Well, we got 3 guys who can help us for one year. We unloaded a guy who could not help us next year. So there is absolutely nothing not to like about this trade. Homer is gone, Hooray, Hooray. Perhaps we get a couple of productive players for a year. If not, we have lost nothing. But, I am betting that Wood is our #1 starter and the other 2 big names gives us at least some decent production. If you do not see the benefit of this trade. Then you are just one of those people who love to complain , no matter what the situation.

    • Michael E

      The only downside is unlikely, but also years off, and that’s one of either Downs or Gray becoming above average MLB starters. Given our luck with prospects, I am okay with the small risk. Doubt either would have been all-stars for the Reds and it’s likely one doesn’t even make a dent in MLB given prospect attrition rates.

  9. JB WV

    Love to see them unload Kemp for something and use that 21mil elsewhere. Puig could be that big right bat in the middle of the lineup and we now have a legit starting lefty. Tough to give up Downs but he was questioned at short and we have plenty at second

    • Scottya

      Kemp may very well be untradeable. But if we can even move kemp to save 1 million, I hope the reds do it. Outfielders, winker, schebler, puig, senzel, Ervin, Kemp. Someone’s getting ready to be traded. It could be scooter moving senzel to his natural infielder spot. Or ??

  10. Big Ed

    If the Yanks pass on Machado, then I expect the Reds to shop Gennett to New York, probably for Sonny Gray. And be generally done for the off-season.

    • Sabr Chris

      Agree Big Ed, could also see Gennet flipped to the Brewers for Domingo Santana and then move Schebler for bullpen help.

      • Matt Hendley

        Brewers wouldnt go for it, teams hate having to pay for the same player twice, expecially when yhey gave him away the first time for free

      • matt hendley

        ANd evidently, Seatle is about to pick up Santana

    • Chris Miller

      Let me get this straight. You want to dump, arguably the most productive Reds player over the last two seasons, bur Gray, who was a disaster last season. Really? Why would anyone make a deal like that? Gray may bounce back, but there is certainly no guarantee. I don’t understand how Reds fans form opinions and ignore results so easily. How much does Gennett have to prove before some of you get that he changed his hitting approach and is flat out GOOD?

      • matt hendley

        A GIANT DITTO on that comment. Reds are obviously shifting to a “Win this year” mentality. If it does go south by July, A lot of Trade Pieces

      • Big Ed

        1. The Reds already have 3 LH hitters other than Gennett in their lineup.

        2. The Reds have Senzel to play Gennett’s spot at 1/20 of the price.

        3. Because of #2, the Reds are unlikely to extend Gennett. Right now, second basemen are a dime a dozen, so they should get what they can for Gennett. Gray is a Derek Johnson protege, and his salary is comparable to Gennett’s.

        4. Gennett is no sure thing. His OBP after the All-Star break last year was .774. That is OK, but Peraza’z was .758.

  11. matt hendley

    This is a Steal for the Reds in the Short Term. A Legit Starting Pitcher, and Aging but all-star fielder and a fielder with some pop. Additionally, we got rid of Homer Bailey and all his money. Additionally, the prospect cost was not high at all.

    As far as Puig and Kemp are concerned we can keep them or we can trade them. If we keep them and don’t trade anyone else. Ervins back in LOU, Shebler should move to center and WInker works into the Lineup as a Platoon ROle, limiting him after his injury. With only one year left it doesn’t hold up anybody long term that wouldn’t be already there.

    I would continue to engage Dallas K. agent, and now facing the Indians from a much stronger position, would put the screws to them to lower their price. Trammel Senzel or Greene would only get traded with significant monetary balance, such as the Indians adding money or taking kemp as well. WInker and Schebler could go as well or instead of, would keep winker due to service time.

    Needless to say, Tramell for Gray is not happening without someone in the Reds FO getting fired but a possible reengagement with other prospects instead. SO many possibilities.

    • doctor

      I would disagree on being able to forcing Indians to lower their price to trade Kluber. They would seem to no longer have the payroll pressure to move him and thus can wait on a bidding war to get the controllable OF pieces they need if going via trade.

  12. Scottya

    Yes! What a dynamic offense! Solid 4.1ish rotation. More to come!

  13. Matt Esberger

    I would imagine Kemp would be flipped this off-season maybe included for a deal with Cleveland.

    • Michael E

      Compared to what we have, Puig AND Kemp are both OF upgrades…no reason to move them unless someone wows us. Plug them in and let them play. If anything platoon with Winker and Schebler here and there, but right now I hope to see Puig and Kemp have the most ABs of the OF clump, with Schebler and Winker 3rd/4th in some order.

      If either Puig or Kemp are raking (possible with our stadium) then they’ll be more attractive late July if we’re not looking like a contender. If we get an SP1 in a trade, we ARE a contender as soon as that trade closes.

      Minus Bham (woo hoo)
      add Puig and Kemp, better than any OFs we have on roster
      add Wood and Roark, better than any SPs we were set to start in 2019.

      Yes, please, more of that.

  14. Sabr Chris

    The national writers are slow to change a teams narrative. To them the Reds are a small market whom just max out their budget and are still bad. Just like the Cubs have incredible depth and top flight pitching, not IMO position players who have already plateaued and an expensive declining rotation.

  15. Wayne nabors

    Buts its definitely a step forward not backwards, homer was dead weight and these guys will produce

  16. Corky Miller

    Homer has already been released by the Dodgers.

    • Michael E

      I bet he calls the Rangers immediately asking if he can play there. He’ll probably end up farther away from home playing for Minnesota or Seattle as a swing starter, long relief guy…or he’ll retire, who knows. I;d retire if I were him, and enjoy all that money and forgo the “fire starter” nickname to come for 2019.

  17. CP

    The Dodgers going after Bryce Harper is completely irrelevant to the Reds.

  18. Streamer88

    What a great trade for the Reds. This opens up senzel getting some time at 2B against lefties and Scooter can sit and we get RHers in the OF. Essentially, this provides ultimate flexibility game to game. A good manager can increase our chances of winning ABs, games, series with the versatility.

    • Streamer88

      And every starter acquired makes the bullpen better. Big Sal, practice that slider. It’s all u need now brother.

      • Michael E

        …and we’re all on pins and needles regarding the new PC Johnson working with the half dozen SP prospects that have kind of stalled the past couple of years. I am HOPEFUL at least ONE suddenly takes a big step forward into above average NL starter..maybe Castillo or Mahle. Hopeful. Maybe Santillan or a lesser/younger guy really impresses, that’d be nice to.

        If we get a Kluber or Bauer or Syndergaard, we’re suddenly a REAL contender. If the new PC gets some improvements and we’re mostly healthy, we’re a serious NL central and NL league contender. We’ll still be behind several teams in our best-case scenario, but ANYTHING can happen if you suddenly have better than average (BTA) pitching and hitting…which we’ll have if we get that SP1.

        BTA pitching and BTA hitting means BTA record, ie, winning record and talking 90 wins would be quite acceptable.

  19. Slicc50

    I like this trade for the Reds. I believe there will be more to come. If everyone remembers, this was a solid team for a time last year after the terrible start. The pitching improved over June into July without Homer. Now they have added a couple pretty decent starting pitchers and some depth, which they seriously lacked last year when the injuries came! I think Puig and Kemp could really benefit from GABP. Best part is….. they really didnt have to give up much in the deal. Definately hope there is more to come though!

  20. Joe Farfsing

    Reds get two hitters who had OPS+ of 122 and 121 last year and a pitcher who would’ve had the best fWAR on the team and gave up Homer’s contract and 2 superfluous prospects that are no closer than 2+ years away. This doesn’t win the pennant for them but they are clearly much better today than they were yesterday, didn’t increase 2019 payroll, and they added ZERO financial commitments for 2020 and beyond. To me this is a successful deal

    • Tampa Red

      This! For Puig, Wood, Roark and Kemp, the Reds gave up Homer, Tanner Rainey, and two low level minor leaguers. I mean, only the most jaded, pessimistic Reds fan wouldn’t approve of these moves.

      Yes, I’m very well aware of the fact that all of the players the Reds added are only here for one year. But the players they gave up weren’t going to help in 2019 or maybe ever. The Reds are instantly better than they were, they still have payroll space to add, they have several trade chips to move at the deadline if things don’t work out, and they still have all of their top prospects.

      Winning!

    • doctor

      “…who couldn’t spell Cincinnati if you spotted them all of the C’s, I’s, and N’s….”

      LOL. I been a reds fan for years and still screw up the city name from time to time

  21. Kelly Green

    I think I just Puig’d my pants from excitement!!!

  22. Jbrat22

    How are the Reds not better after this trade? It’s not about who won the trade…the Reds are a significantly better team now, having added a legit #3 (or better) pitcher to the rotation and at least one OFer that has had a productive career and is in his prime years.

    Are they contenders? Maybe not yet, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t improve and the trade wasn’t a good one.

  23. Hanawi

    Said it in the other thread, but I really don’t like giving up Gray. Reds have very little actual SP prospects and Gray is still new to pitching so his upside is huge. All to get better in 2019, but not long-term. It seems more of a marketing win than an actual trade win to me. I’m fairly meh about the whole thing, if slightly negative rather than positive.

    They still need a CF for next year, otherwise the defense may actually be worse than this year, if that’s possible. Don’t see this team as a contender next year as currently constructed.

    • Michael E

      One thing we learned about P prospects, about 90% of them will fail to meet anything close to expectations. Gray has some possibility, but he is a small college pitcher that threw in a league where he was older. He has one really good pitch and so-so secondary one. Nothing about him screams high-upside. He did look good stat wise, but you should lose no sleep over this.

      I do admit I’d like to see if the new PC can really help some of the AAA/AA guys blossom, but if you want to get something, you give something.

      The Reds right now are very watchable in 2019 and if they add an SP1 type or another young/good SP that is controllable SP2 with upside, the Reds are going to make serious noise in the NL Central this year with no true stud teams.

  24. turbobuckeye

    I like the idea of Keuchel, but trading for Greinke is better. G is likely to be as good or better next year and we’d only be “signing” him for 3 years (lets face it, AZ will eat a good chunk of the remaining cash). For $20mm a year, give me Greinke for 3 years over Keuchel for 4/$80. This is assuming AZ would eat the $12mm or so a year to unload him, but there is plenty of scuttlebutt out there supporting just this thought.

    • doctor

      Greinke has Reds on his no-trade list of 14 teams. So he would have to agree to it and these days would mean adding years/$$$ to his contract. No thanks.

    • Michael E

      I’d rather have Kluber or Bauer than either of those. Both with much better K potential and less bust potential. Costs will vary in trade of course, but I’d like an SP1 type and Keuchel is that only on occasion. Bauer has only been exceptional one season, but bust potential there, but his curve and FB are nasty things.

      I really hope we get Kluber and those 3 years of control. I’d still be happy to see a Keuchel or Bauer or Syndergaard or Stroman or ???

      Happy to see today’s trade though. I am actually mildly excited about 2019 now as opposed to planning my summer slumber.

  25. Davy13

    I agree. The FO finally has done something that excites the fan base. There is a shaping of the roster that will be better in 2019, but much more promising for 2020.

    As an aside, i would not mind if the FO found a way to trade for Realmuto. Either way, thumbs up for the new trajectory of the team, especially since the team’s top prospects are still in the farm.

    • Michael E

      One thing about adding Realmuto, we’d have literally NO holes in our lineup. The human lineup hole BHam is taking his little league hitting ways to KC.

      Given our SP is looking closer to average these days, assuming some health and a Castillo or Mahle improving under Coach Johnson, having a tough out lineup would mean few non-competitive games in 2019.

  26. jgorrell.tcp

    I’ve been pretty tough on the Reds FO so far this off season. But I generally like this move. It really boils down to possibly getting something positive for Homers money and trading two prospects who are several years away for a year of Wood.

    I’d like to see them complete the Kluber trade now with either Kemp (paying a decent chunk of his salary (was already wasted in homer and they could use him at DH) or Puig as part of the package. Think, Iglesias, Kemp, prospect 5-10, and one of our talented yet failing to produce young starters, + 12$ million. Then sign Kuechel. This would give you the opportunity to dangle Disco for a centerfielder, bullpen additions, or prospects to replenish what you lost. Roster would then be..

    1b- Votto
    2b- Scooter, Senzel
    SS- Peraza, Senzel
    3b- Suarez, Senzel
    Rf- Winker, Puig
    CF- Schebler, Ervin, Senzel
    LF- Winker, Puig, Ervin
    C- Barnhartt, Casali

    SP- Kluber
    Kuechel
    Castillo
    Wood
    Roark

    Pen
    J. Hughes
    A. Garrett
    D. Hernandez
    M. Lorenzen
    W. Peralta
    S. Romano
    M. Wisler
    L. Sims
    C. Reed
    R. Stephenson

    Seems like a team that would be a pretty big threat to me and doesn’t deplete the farm. If things don’t work out, you have a ton of assets at the deadline.

  27. Streamer88

    It may backfire but I also love this trade for the concept they’re potentially exploiting. They may have discovered that teams are giving away final year arb and contract players because teams are obsessing about controllable years. So they can get cheap short team WAR for reduced value. This could be a very Billy Bean type strategy (there are new final year arb players every year), or could deplete the farm too quickly over time. I love the ingenuity though!

  28. Michael E

    Incorrect. Reds are now better in 2018. They did not sacrifice much in the way of future, barring an unlikely event of Gray or Downs becoming average or better MLB players in the next 5 years.

    Kemp and Puig are far from unwanted. Overpaid, for sure Kemp is a bit overpaid, but Dodgers are paying us 7 mill in cash to cover some of that. Puig is still crazy talented, even if his rookie year heroics are in the rear-view mirror.

    Wood and Roark are, by far, the best two SPs on our team. Having them as SP1 and SP2 mean all those SP4/5 types can now pitch where they should be pitching in the rotation. Barring injury we now have an MLB average SP rotation. That’s a big jump. Should be land Kluber, we’re above average rotation and maybe even top 4 in NL if one of those so-so prospects suddenly take flight with the new pitching coach. What if Mahle or Castillow suddenly surge forward…then we have FOUR above average pitchers.

    Roark is a VERY good SP. His stats have yo-yo’d, but he has top 10 SP material if PC can help with an adjustment or two. he has a better breaking pitch and two-seamer than anyone else on our staff.

    So, we’ve gotten rid of an offensive black hole in Bham (finally), now have a legitimate (and likely top 5 NL) OF offense, improved the rotation, and gave up…two moderately solid, but not high ceiling prospects.

    What exactly is not to like for 2019? What is not to like for beyond 2019, regardless of 2019 outcome? Tell me the one thing Reds surrendered here that angers or disappoints you? I expect to hear crickets.

  29. TR

    Just what was needed. The dam has finally been broken with Bailey and Hamilton gone. The Reds did not give up one of their top five prospects for a needed lefty starting pitcher and an outfielder in his prime with offensive pop who has a good relationship with the new hitting coach. For 2019, at least, the dearth of right-handed hitting has ended. This was a big move to get the Reds in the vicinity of .500 whether they contend in 2019 or not, is not my concern. Well done DW, with more to come this offseason regarding starting pitching.

  30. REDSMAN

    Wow! I mean WOW!

    How can this be considered as anything but a win? Who cares what the Dodgers do in the next few hours, days, or weeks?

    Bailey and his recalcitrant attitude are gone…not to mention his lousy performance, and his overbloated salary and sense of self worth. We have an above average southpaw starter in his place. We have two star OF’s. Yes, they are both stars. BTW, the flip side to the complaint of the one year of control is that all 3 have the powerful incentive of performing for their next contract. In my experience, this has done wonders for the performance of many players in similar situations.

    It also seems we may be over valuing our prospects. Especially those outside the top 10 of our farm system. I like Downs particularly, but it is tremendously difficult to project guys as far away as they both are.

    I liked the Roark trade, and this one could prove to be even better still. Regardless, how can we be upset with the new direction this team is headed? This is proactive rather than a knee jerk reaction.
    Further, It signals we are now moving into the 21st century and have management that is attempting to put pieces in place that can take advantage of matchups/situations, park advantages, etc. A breath of fresh air!!!

    • Big Ed

      I would say Puig is the only one who will receive a QO. Wood is a possible, but only if he steps up his performance quite a bit.

      No way on Gennett. Their choice is to pay Senzel $600k or Gennett $19mm. Their real option with Gennett is to move him now or at the deadline.

      They could, of course, extend any of these guys, before they reach free agency. They have free looks on Wood and Roark, plus Puig, but Puig is the most likely to try free agency.

  31. Michael E

    I am however OK with trading one of those top 3 prospects for an ACE level SP. I’d prefer more control. Kluber has 3 years of control, I’d love to have him opening day started followed by Wood and Roark and Castillo. Add in the addition by subtraction of BHam (thank goodness) and we have an above average hitting OF with major upside. Too many acting like Kemp is garbage. The man was as good or better than any OF we had last year. Puig still has monster-potential. Change of scenery, better hitter park… Puig has All-star/MVP upside that we simply don’t have anywhere else in our lineup (apologies to an aging, but darn good Votto).

    I just hope Puig and Kemp get serious ABs. I’d be fine seeing Winker and Schebler platoon some and Puig or Kemp sit here or there against RHP that are historical tough against them, but otherwise, Puig and Kemp are better than our other OFs. Winker hits well, but coming off injury and slower than a three-toed sloth. He needs to be a DH or 1B in the worst way.

  32. Michael E

    Fangraphs
    “It sounds crazy to say, but right now, the Reds are pretty close to the Phillies and Brewers on paper. The team is in a really tough division, and face a competitive NL Wild Card field as well, but they aren’t that far away from having a chance at a playoff spot. ”

    Yep, small additions to the eyes, but the end totals are a large swing in the positive. Maybe larger than any WAR increase may suggest. I’d argue the division is tough, but not top-heavy. No team has both a good rotation and good lineup. Brewers and Cubs neither have anything more than a little better than average pitching…if that. I’d argue the Reds, right now are right in the middle of the pile of NL Central teams, with only Brewers and Cubs slightly better, Cards about the same and Pirates now dragging up a close rear.

    I guess we’ll see if BHams “runs saved” defense is really as impactful as some fans think. Certainly our CF won’t be running down the same amount of fly balls and may boot a few more. I can’t see it being more given up than gain at the plate though, not close.

    • Optimist

      Recalling the BRM, up the middle defense is most important, and while Bham is a loss, Senzel would be an upgrade. Certainly not equivalent, but important enough. They should not have another Harvey experience with Scooter – either move him or extend him.

      Ideally, the defense improves in 20-21 when the farm sends the help, at least in CF, but getting there will be interesting.

  33. Ryan Singer

    As a Reds fan who now lives in LA, I cannot wait to wear my Puig jersey to the Dodgers game next year when the Reds are in town (hoping they don’t flip him before then)!

    I truly believe that if they made a trade for a SP1, one of those “available” ACES, the team could be straight up dangerous if they still healthy. Of course, that is a big IF with any team nowadays. I’ll have to check into the FA SP market for next offseason, but at the very least this trade gives me joy considering how many of my Dodger fan friends have texted me in total despair that the Wild Horse no longer roams their field…

  34. ToBeDetermined

    For those that are pessimistic about this trade. It doesn’t matter if it makes the Dodgers better or not. That is irrelevant.
    Please ask yourself does this trade make the Reds a better team ?

    Consider the man who traded a single paperclip for a house.
    Obviously, someone didn’t give him a house for the paperclip straight up. But, each trade he kept getting incrementally better.

    You can read about it here:
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/from-paper-clip-to-house-in-14-trades-1.573973

  35. SFRedsFan

    So pumped about this trade! Extend them next year or get two QOs. Either way, we just dumped Bailey for Wood and Puig!

    Legitimate question to the RLN community. Assuming we have $25m-$35m left this year and prospects, how do we play this?

    Some options that come to mind (many of these are potentially overlapping).
    -Sign Keuchel+ solid pen piece (would love to know who fits into that range for us….would be a great RLN article)
    -Trade for Stroman or Robbie Ray, then spend more on pen.
    -Kluber
    -Scoots for Gray
    -Try to flip Kemp as a DH to Twins or Rays (assume we eat 80% of salary but get a pen piece back or a lottery ticket)
    -JTR trade
    -I wonder if Cleveland would take some combo of Puig, Santillan, Scooter, India for Kipnis and Kluber and Reds paying all of Puig, Scoots, and Kipnis salary (in addition to Kluber). This would put us at ~$145M in 2019.

    The one thing that does NOT make sense to me is Pollack now that we have all these OFs and still need to find Nick S a spot.

  36. Mason Red

    I haven’t read every post in this thread so this could be a repeat of what some have already said but this deal to me shows the Reds doing SOMETHING to try and jumpstart the “rebuild”. I agree with the trade completely especially moving Homer. I didn’t think the Reds could get a bag of balls for him.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      The Reds’ aggressiveness this off-season mirrors almost exactly the “rebuild” plans successfully implemented by the Cubs and Astros. After four seasons of focusing on acquiring prospects, the Cubs and Astros turned their attention to filling holes in their roster with major league talent in the off-season prior to the fifth season of their rebuild plan.

  37. Eric the Red

    1) It’s kind of fun to imagine Votto and Puig on the same team. Should make for some amusing short videos, which the Marketing folks will love.

    2) Everybody’s ignoring the Catcher we picked up. I doubt we’re going to carry 3 catchers, so add “ML-quality catcher” to our list of trade assets. I just can’t figure out which of the three is most likely to go.

    • ToBeDetermined

      Eric
      Yes, your #1 brings a smile to my face.
      Both of those guys have personality
      And both those guys can hit a baseball

  38. gary

    so Wood/Roark not better than Homer/Sal?

  39. Streamer88

    The alternative is come July 30 the reds just aren’t there yet, or injured, and Puig and Wood are having monster years.

    So the Reds move them and collectively get more back than they had at the start (Downs and Gray).

    In short, there are so many ways this works out for the Reds and really only one way it doesn’t ( Downs develops into his namesake).

  40. roger garrett

    It makes us better in 2019 but all 3 players will be gone after this year.Wise move however because they got 3 major leaguers for Bailey who wasn’t going to pitch anyway for the Reds or now it seems the Dodgers.Just buys some time until guys arrive from down on the farm.We will know soon if this is actually what takes place or if they plan to trade one or more for some more pitching.Stay tuned.

  41. Steven Ross

    You’re forgetting even if Puig/Kemp/Wood leave and they’ll probably will, that’s a ton of bank coming off payroll with a good FA class next year. As for not troubling the NL Central, have you seen our projected lineup? Yes, we need one more solid SP and I think that will happen.

  42. Josh G

    If they aren’t competitive at the trade deadline these three walk year rentals will bring back as good or better prospects in deadline deals

  43. David Moore

    I’m just amazed at some of the negative comments here. I’m just excited that the Reds are doing something, anything to try to compete. The past few offseasons it seemed like the Reds didn’t even care about winning.
    Yeah, all these guys could walk after 2019, but who cares. I don’t think we’re finished making moves. I think the Reds are going all-in for 2019. Then if they walk after 2019, then you’ve still got a load of young talent in the minors to open another window with.
    I kinda rambled in this post, but it’s because I’m excited that the Reds are semi-relevant right now.
    If you can’t get excited about this move, maybe you should step away from the Reds for a bit. Lol..

    Merry Christmas!

  44. JB WV

    Trading an aging, expensive Kemp would make this trade that much better. There’s now a log jam at the corner outfield spots and if Winker is completely healed he doesn’t need to platoon. Even a low minor league prospect would do for Kemp with that 21mil used for pitching. If Williams could pull it off it would be a coup.

  45. Tom Mitsoff

    At first, I thought Puig might be just flipped to Cleveland in a Kluber trade. (I would be in favor of that in any case.) However, I later heard that Puig had a phone call with hitting coach Turner Ward and that he seems quite excited about the trade. That is evident from this Twitter video:

    https://twitter.com/BR_MLB/status/1076323630714421248

    I don’t understand what he is saying, but the enthusiasm is clear, with all members of his family wearing Reds caps already. Supposedly Turner Ward is his best friend in baseball. Put him in GABP and 30 homers seems possible. Nice to see a player with some marquee value showing excitement about joining the Reds.

    I am also very glad to hear Dick Williams say they are not done. I at one time was hopeful that they would go all-out for Dallas Keuchel, but I listened to Williams’ interview with Mo Egger after the trade, and reading between the lines, it sounded like aggressively going after top-flight free agents is now secondary to trying to acquire players via trade. (Couldn’t immediately find the link.) While I still hope for a Kluber or Keuchel type, if they can start spring training with one more starter at least along the tier of Wood, I would say they were successful in the mission to #getthepitching.

    • Matt Hendley

      Translation: Cincinnati going to the playoff really fast. No really, I am glad to see Puig is happy about comming to Cincinnati. Hope that Kemp is as pumped too…. seemed to be the paydown game on his old contract, (padres, braves, and dodgers all paying portions of his contract). Seeing Mike Leake as a reasonable peice here. Not going to cost alot. Mariners reaally want anyone with a contract gone, and has time after next year. This way we can send worthwhile arms to the Bullpen and suspect arms to the minors to get more development. If it goes south he can join the july exodus if needed.

  46. Ryan Singer

    all the projected lineups I see here have Kemp on the bench and while I understand that, I am also excited to see what kind of numbers he can put up in GAB. Living in LA has forced me to hear about the Dodgers on a daily basis and the one narrative that was shown last year was that Kemp had rededicated himself to baseball by getting in shape and committing again. He apparently had let himself go a bit after signing his big contract years ago. Now, his 2nd half was different than his white-hot first half last year, but I’m betting he is like any of us – motivated and ready to prove the doubters wrong. The least we can do as fans of this team is root for the guy to hit 35 bombs and drive in 100 with Votto, Puig, and Co. ahead of him in the lineup. I’d love to see Pollock in this lineup but not at 5 or 6 years.

    Crazy thought: would the Cubs be ready to pull the parachute on the Darvish signing and take lower prospects if we covered more of the salary? That would give us an ACE type SP for the next 5 years. His salary is essentially the same with no relief from Cubs as Kuechel’s alleged asking price next 5 years: 2019: $20M, 2020: $22M, 2021: $22M, 2022: $19M, 2023: $18M – this may work as I keep hearing Cubs are strapped for payroll.

    Something tells me he’d be a lot cheaper than Kluber or Bauer. I’m just wishful thinking over here that the Reds will have ACE and stop being the only team in MLB to not have an Japanese born player on team, too.

    It seems only way to really get an ACE is to grow one at home or trade since the ballpark is considered such a hitter’s park.

    • Ryan Singer

      Darvish also has opt-out clause after 2019 season, so there’s that to go along with his full no-trade clause for the first 4 years of deal – Reds would have to add money or something for him to waive it.

    • Matt Hendley

      Speaking of Japanese players, Kikuri seems a good fall back option if Dallas cannot be enticed to Cincinnati. He would also be the first Japanese pitcher if he comes. Cheaper then many other good options.

      • Ryan Singer

        I’d love taking a shot at Kikuchi and get the kind of SP the Cardinals got with Mikolas last year. he also is lefty so he seems to fit

  47. ToBeDetermined

    In regards to a top flight veteran pitcher being enticed to come to Cincinnati, personally I think that the moves the front office have made and appear to be willing to continue to make shows a pitcher that he could be part of something exciting come October 2019 and thereafter.

    And really that’s all they really want is a chance at a ring.

    Well that and of course 10s of millions of $$$$.

  48. Earmbrister

    WV, do u really think that national sportscasters have a good feel for the basement dwelling Reds and the Reds farm system? I’m doubtful. I agree that Woods is a big addition to the 2019 rotation. And to get something, you have to give something. Gray is the bigger loss for me as well, as Long is already in the pipeline at AA, and Scooter, Senzel, and India/Peraza are already ahead of Downs, or as highly touted.

    What does this trade do?

    1. It ends the down years of the rebuild, probably for good.

    2. It serves as a bridge to Senzel, Trammell, Siri, Santillan, Guttierez, Greene, etal. Come 2020, most of those names will be in, or ready to be in MLB.

    3. It greatly improves the 2019 rotation.

    4. It greatly improves the 2019 lineup. Puig might be a headcase, but his reunion with his hitting coach, him being in a contract year, and him hitting in GABP should have him mashing in 2019. Winker/Senzel/Puig should be your starting OF, with Schebler and Kemp (if he’s not flipped) on the bench.

    Don’t understand why Roark and Woods are not considered big adds to the 2019 rotation, and at a low cost of prospects given up in return.