Miley (32) is a free agent. He pitched for the Brewers last year. 76 starting pitchers threw at least 80 innings in 2018 (Miley threw 80.2). Of those 76 pitchers, Wade Miley had the lowest strikeout rate of all. Yes, Miley had an ERA of 2.57, but that was misleading. ERA estimator stats had him much higher. xFIP of 4.30 and SIERA (which gives Miley credit for his ground balls) was 4.60. Projections for Miley’s ERA in 2019: Steamer 4.36, Marcel 4.42.

Miley’s ERA in 2017 (5.37) and 2016 (5.61) seem like better indicators. He threw more than 300 innings those two years. Pass.

More like it, although costly in terms of top prospects. Bauer (27) has 2 years of team control left, Kluber (32) has 3.

According to MLBTR, the Reds are one of many teams to have been connected with J.A. Happ, who is waiting for a team to offer three years.

It would be difficult to swallow a 3-year contract for a 36-year-old pitcher, at a projected $16 million a year.

In case you missed it:

Interview with Reds manager David Bell where he discusses, among other things, using Michael Lorenzen in the OF.

“I don’t know him as well as everyone else in the organization, but I would have no hesitation to putting him in any role, any position,” Bell said. “He’s so competitive. He takes such great care of himself. He’s going to do well in this game for a long time and it’ll be important for us to find at the best way to use him, the best way to maximize who he is.”

Interview with Dick Williams where he reflects on Day One of the Winter Meetings and talks about timing of potential moves:

“Now we feel like we’re entering that window of competitiveness,” Williams said. “We have Joey [Votto] for a limited amount of time. We now have guys like [Eugenio] Suarez signed. We’ve got building blocks around the diamond. We don’t know how far it’ll take us, but this is a year where we’re going to try to get better with the resources we have. We have some financial resources. We have some prospect capital. We definitely are focused on improving this year.

“The good thing is, we haven’t had any discussions where people say we don’t have enough prospects to enter into a discussion. I think that’s a testament to how far we’ve built the system. Are there a lot of discussions where we’re not comfortable going where the [asking price] is right now? Yes.”

“We’re trying to find the right time to strike, whether it’s a trade or free agent,” Williams said. “It’s not that prices have to drop to rock bottom. We have some resources to do deals, but we have to find the right deals that allow us to do multiple [trades]. We still have to work within our overall parameters. We have to find the right time to strike on each one.”

Update (3 pm): Phillies just signed Andrew McCutchen to a 3-year ($50 million) deal. McCutchen had been looking for 5 years and $80 million. That should take the Phillies out of the A.J. Pollock competition, possibly opening up opportunity for the Reds.

Update (4:40 pm): From Mark Sheldon. Inciarte has three years of team control left, plus a $9 million team option in 2022. He’s won the last three NL Gold Gloves for CF. This rumor sounds implausible to me. I’d read where the Braves weren’t interested in moving Inciarte. But for the right price, who knows, I guess. 

22 Responses

  1. RedsFan11

    Come on Reds give us some holiday hope for next season!

  2. Matt Esberger

    Makes sense in that they are all in for 2019 and trading Santana opened up 1st base for Hoskins and Herrera, Williams, Altherr not exactly murderers row in the OF.

  3. Jeff Gangloff

    “Are there a lot of discussions where we’re not comfortable going where the [asking price] is right now? Yes.”

    I hope Williams keeps this level head and doesn’t succumb to the pressure to “get the pitching”.

    I’m all for the Reds making moves to improve the team, but I hope it’s sensible improvement and not short term improvement which sabotages the long term outlook of the team. I’m just not sure I’m to the point yet where I feel comfortable trading away top prospects for a front end starter that we get for 2 years.

    Teams that are one piece away from a World Series or Pennant make these kinds of moves. The Reds aren’t there yet.

    • Jeff Gangloff

      I’m with you. I would rather look at potential free agents than trade candidates. If the Reds have the wheels in motion to trade for a top of the rotation guy AND add another via trade or free agency..then my mind could maybe be swayed to part with a prospect of two.

  4. Mason Red

    It’s obvious this team isn’t going to make any attempts to land big time pitching. It will be the usual sore armed reclamation projects as in the past. Same old same old regardless of who the manager is or GM for that matter.

    • roger garrett

      Never thought they would do anything and I am not sure they should.It will take some top prospects to get a front line pitcher or trading some position players we already have in the big leagues to get it done.That would be foolish because as stated we are several players away from even reaching 500 baseball because of the division we are in.Put us in the other league in with the Tribe and we just got competitive.


    Am I missing something on AJ Pollock? He’s older than Billy (31). Obviously not as good a defender in CF. And his OBP was only .316 last year. What’s the lure; the home runs?

    • Matt Esberger

      I do like Pollock and would be a good fit but injury bug every year since 2015 is a bit of concern.

  6. Scott C

    I like the idea of signing Happ, even for 3 years, just make that third year at lower value than the first two. That is probably not the norm but I wouldn’t want a 39 old pitcher on the roster who can’t pitch and getting 2o million. We already have that this year.
    I personally would investigate Tulow. Don’t know if he can play or not but if he can play anywhere close to his 361 career OBP, 856 OBS. I would certainly think that is worth looking at for league minimum. Not saying sign him but investigate.

  7. big5ed

    The problem with JBJ, and Scooter for that matter, is that he is left-handed. The Reds already have Schebler, Votto and Winker as lefties, and they don’t really need 4 lefties in the regular lineup. It didn’t use to matter with Votto, but he was mediocre against lefties last year. Defensively, JBJ is pretty close to Hamilton; not as fast but with a fabulous arm. He’s a pull hitter and would get some homers, but he is very streaky.

    I wouldn’t give up much by way of prospects for any of those guys, who are generally rentals, in a year when the Reds don’t need rentals. They may need a CF for one year, but they are loaded in CF in the minors, with Siri, Friedl, Trammell, Sugilio and Bautista.

  8. sezwhom

    Reds need to make a wow trade. Something nobody is talking about. Then I’ll get excited. Right now, talk is cheap.

  9. scotly50

    I think the Reds will end up with Miley. I think he is in our dollar range for a second acquisition with either of the two Indians starters. Miley was money in the playoffs and a big reason they went as far as they did.

  10. Gerardo Helguera

    Lets face it, if the Reds sign Miley it will resemble the the Milton signing back in ’05. Not good enough. Wade Miley had a nice year but it was a small sample size. In my opinion he’s a 5th starter maybe a #4 at best.

  11. Buddy

    I wonder what the Dodgers would want for Puig? Not sure what his contract situation is but seems like he could be a good fit. Right-handed hitter w/power, strong arm and very close relationship with our new hitting coach. Doesn’t solve centerfield but corners of Winker and Puig could be very productive. Also, Dodgers are busy thinking BIG (Harper etc) and quite likely less demanding. ????

    • Reaganspad

      who has hit 30 HRs. that is a pretty good 4th OF’er. who can play CF, and is getting better. I like his swing. Hope he is healthy in 2019 because I think he could drive in 100 rbis.

      that would be a really, really good 4th OF’er

  12. Reaganspad

    So glad Billy is gone. I cannot watch one more botched bunt attempt followed by strike 3.

    I would rather watch Ervin play every day. I know that he has flaws but he has potential and is a much better hitter now than the veteran Hamilton

  13. Streamer88

    Ervin, Big Sal (as a SP), Mason Williams – these players have no place on a team that wins 81+ games. These marginal replacement players are not the future.

    Maybe Romano in the pen. They are otherwise AAAA depth at best. We’re in the NL Central – time to make some moves. Sign Dallas, trade for Kluber, OR send Scooter for Sonny Gray and then trade for Incendiarte. That offseason gets us to .500.

  14. BigRedMike

    Puig might be a good option. Another right hand power bat

    Sounds like Dodgers would just take Homer to get prospects.

    I like to hear that they are still talking with the Indians. Bauer might be a good upgrade.

  15. Jay King

    I’m not real high on Wade Miley either. The kinda seemed pretty terrible before last year.

  16. Jay King

    Don’t forget a lot of Reds deals in the past few years have come shortly after the winter meetings. I am feeling this is going to happen again.

    I am beginning to get worried though. The price for pitching that is good seems very steep this offseason. I know it is always expensive but some of the signings seem a little crazy to me even for bigger market teams.

  17. Jay King

    I honestly feel like we got 1 or our two starters with the trade with the Nationals. The other guy better be decent. I feel like the guy we got is a innings eater at best. Very inconsistent number year to year too.

    Glad to see Lance Lynn is going to the Rangers it appears. He is another one with Miley that I am worried about getting.