News from the #GetThePitching front per Jon Heyman (Fancred Sports): 

“The Reds are said to be ‘all over’ Dallas Keuchel. Apparently, Cincinnati believes that he is fit for a small ballpark such as Great America.”

Keuchel is a free agent. He turns 31 on Jan. 1. Keuchel just finished several strong years for the Houston Astros. He’s projected to sign a 4-year deal for $80 million. Keuchel has a high ground ball rate (53.7% in 2018), which is surely why the Reds are “all over” him. But Keuchel’s strikeout rate is low (17.5% in 2018) and declining. He’s an excellent pitcher, and would help the Reds. But Keuchel doesn’t project as an ace going forward.  

Matt Wilkes wrote a terrific, detailed breakdown of the pros and cons of signing Keuchel about a month ago. 

25 Responses

  1. Kelly Green

    “But Keuchel doesn’t project as an ace going forward.” He would definitely be the “ace” of our staff going forward! Sign him NOW…please!

  2. Bryan E

    The Mets would want Senzel + + + for Thor and Eovaldi has a nasty injury history. Kuechel has health and peripherals on his side. I think anything between 4/78 and 4/88 is reasonable for a pitcher of Kuechel’s quality.

    Given that the Reds were a revenue sharing team last year, they would only be required to give up their third highest pick for signing a QO player. I don’t see how giving up a third round/comp bal A pick is worse than giving up two or more top prospects for a guy like Syndergaard.

    • ghettotrout1

      I actually agree with WV I highly doubt the Mets would require Senzel if Greene is included. I still find it very odd that the Mets are trying to shop Syndergaard so hard given he is a top ten talent in the league but then they are going to take on Cano which would signal win now. I have a hard time believing that flipping Syndergaard is going to accomplish win now atleast in the time frame of keeping their pitching staff in tact and Cano being reasonably valuable. If they are this open about Syndergaard I would say either they know something everyone else doesn’t or they would be willing to take a less than favorable deal. Similar to how I feel about Sonny Gray if a team is that willing to let it be known they want someone gone I have to imagine it could hurt their return but who knows I’m just a random dumpy Reds fan desperately hoping for wins LOL.

  3. Jay Thomas

    Agree. One pitcher alone is not nearly enough to destabilize the rebuild by trading Senzel and Greene. Yes, Latos helped the Reds in 2012 make a run at it, but what would the team look like now if they had kept Alonzo, Boxberger, and Grandal, either with the Reds or as better trade pieces once they blossomed? And the Reds are nowhere near as close to contending as they were then.

    • Broseph

      Uhh. I’d rather have Votto and Iglesias than Alonzo and Boxberger on any field, day, or planet. They were expendable pieces that had nowhere to go and are just above average players, maybe good players at best. Not all stars. Throw Grandal in there too who is hit or miss and definitely a miss in the 2018 playoffs.

      I don’t think they even returned much in trade after leaving the org either.

      I get the argument and agree, but everyone hating the Mat Lagos trade doesn’t realize the Reds gave up role players that were blocked by better players for many years. Green and Senzel, and even India are not blocked and project much higher than those pieces from the Latos trade.

  4. Aaron Bradley

    Apparently there is an article in USA Today fantasizing about Bryce Harper on the Reds… personally, I think they SHOULD improve the offense, and worry about pitching later. Early in the year we came up short in games because the offense failed.. the pitchers i.e. Homer (zero run support on opening day despite a stellar start) loses confidence, then later in the summer they score runs by the buckets when they are in high scoring affairs. The offense needs an upgrade, Billy goes to bench, Harper starts in CF, BIlly plays on West coast and rest one of the corners. Billy nice weapon defensive switch at end of game at home and in small parks.

    • Aaron Bradley

      If not Harper, someone else but we need another bat in the outfield.

    • Davy13

      I totally agree with you. I harped (pun well-intended) on that all of last season. The offense as it currently stands can be explosive, but it is not consistent. It racks up big numbers in chunks but for large stretches it was low-ebb, and it cost games. Besides, the team’s franchise hitter (Votto) is aging. Another cornerstone offensive player alongside Genio is needed. I’ve rooted for the team to sign Machado, but Harper would work for me.

    • Broseph

      I get the feeling Winker will have a so-so year and not bust out for another one or two. A la Zack Cozart after injury. I’d love to be wrong and hope to seem him slashing balls all over GABP.

    • roger garrett

      Long way to getting there but in order to compete we must be in the middle of the pack in pitching and a top 5 offense to compete in our division alone.Senzel in and Billy out will help but we need a thumper in the middle of the lineup but if Senzel and Winker can hit 20 bombs a piece I may defer on the signing of a thumper.Just can’t get out homered at home regardless of how bad we pitch.

  5. Streamer88

    This. I’ve argued on here before that signing the Ace (Dallas is an Ace no longer I know…) from free agency could actually save us net dollars by now being able to keep prospects for future use at the MLB level (thus not signing free agents for those positions) and also having them to trade for other assets, AND every middling starter we can replace with a real starter makes for one more arm in the bullpen, saving money from having to sign that person.

    If the numbers are right, I’d love me some Dallas. His peripherals (imho) suggest that his decline, while no doubt approaching, will be less of a crash.

  6. Brandon Bowling

    I say sign Keuchel if they can. Outbid other teams to get him. I’m not going to be that worried about overpaying a declining Keuchel four years from now, if he helps the Reds be competitive in the next 3 years. No offense to anyone, but if people are going to complain about Votto’s contract, considering how much value he has provided…some people are going to complain about any sizable contract. I say the Reds have lost 90+ games for four straight years, maybe it’s time for Billionaire Bob to open up the checkbook and try to put on a decent show for a few years.

    Why rebuild, if no one ever wants to pull the trigger and go for it?

    • Scott C

      I pretty much said the same thing on another site. You have a pitcher that is already on the wrong side of thirty and already missing bats less frequently and then he is wanting 20+ million a year for 4 years. An owner who wants to make a big splash to show he is serious about contending and then add that his agent is Boras. No thanks I think it would be a big mistake.

      • Streamer88

        Wait so how many free agent star pitchers are on the right side of 30?

        Keuchel is 31.

        And in reference to the Homer Bailey contract — what a bomb — but it wasn’t the reason we were rebuilding and it had no impact on the rebuild other than Homer took some innings from rookies.

  7. Corky Miller

    Signing a soft tossing lefty with this infield defense will be a disaster. They need someone that will miss bats – Eovaldi, trade for Jon Gray or Syndergard if they want to improve. Do not trade Hunter Greene!!!!

    Kuechel reminds me of the Eric Milton signing…just saying.

    • roger garrett

      I agree.He could give up 40 bombs easy and its not about him.Its about the park.Would rather we go after a guy that could hit 40 rather then a pitcher who would throw 40.No worries though cause he knows this too so he ain’t coming here unless the money and years are off the charts.

  8. Scotly50

    I would rather not have Keuchel as “the Ace”. The Reds are in a division with the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers. All upgrading their rosters after a season of feasting on the Reds. Any mediocre attempts mentioned, thus far, will still land the team at or near the bottom.

    Maybe look to Cleveland for Bauer, or Kluber with Keuchel as the two starter.

    I feel the Reds still need a middle-of-the-lineup bat, two starters, and two relief arms,(They may already have these by moving the arms who do not make the rotation to the pen.). Address those and I fee they may have a good shot at competing in the division.

  9. davemoorewvu

    According to Morosi, the Reds have checked in on Zack Greinke.

    • Tom Mitsoff

      Maybe the D-backs would take Homer as part of a package that would be highlighted by swapping bad contracts. Greinke’s contract has three years, $100.345 million remaining. Homer has $28 million still owed, so the net of that swap would be $72.345 million additional to the Reds payroll over three years, or an average of $24 million per year.

      Just for the sake of discussion, who would you rather pay $72.345 million to over the next three years? Dallas Kuechel? Nathan Eovaldi? or Zach Greinke? Based on performance history alone, it’s Greinke hands-down. If you can get Kuechel or Eovaldi for considerably less, then do that. But we’ll see where the market settles for those two.

      Along with Bailey, you’d also have to send some talent the D-backs can actually use their way. With A.J. Pollock now a free agent, they might want to take a look at Billy Hamilton. They probably would want a young starter to compete for a spot in their rotation, so maybe Stephenson, Reed or one of that crew.

  10. Streamer88

    Would you consider John Lester to be a soft tossing lefty? Dallas has higher FB velocity than Lester no?

    • Matt Esberger

      Keuchel has never given up more than 20 HRs a season while pitching half his games at Minute Maid Park. Keep in mind he faced righty dominated line-ups with the DH at a place that Danny Graves went yard twice. Eric Milton averaged given up about 34 HRs in his career.

      • Corky Miller

        Good point, but he’s still a guy that is only as good as his infield defense.

        Bregman, Correa, Altuve, and Guerriel is in another league defensively compared to Suarez, Peraza, Gennett, and Votto.

        Add that to his age and continued declining velocity, and you better expect some regression. If he’s wanting $15mil or more for 4 years, I’d pass. You’d get the same numbers from Gio for half the price.

        Got to wonder why Houston isn’t trying to retain him. They lost Mccullers for the year, and Morton is likely gone also.

  11. Tom Mitsoff

    I am not in favor of “innings eaters” such as Leake and Straily. The objective has to be to acquire starting pitchers who can be difference-makers. Whether or not that can be achieved remains to be seen.

    • roger garrett

      I agree Tom.Been doing that for a couple of years now while younger guys watch and that will not get it done now or in the future.

  12. Rut

    Perhaps it is just my take, but Derek Johnson seems like just the guy to help Kuechel get that slider back to nasty — he did it with Chacin, and Kuechel quite a bit better overall than that