I’ve been a big Homer Bailey fan for a long time. I have defended Bailey and his contract ad nauseam.

Bailey should never make another start for the Cincinnati Reds.

Homer was given a first inning 2-0 lead, and turned around and gave up two bombs in route to a 12-5 loss. It is time to move on from Bailey starting if the Reds are serious about competing in 2019.

Final R H E
Cincinnati Reds (57-78) 5 14 1
St. Louis Cardinals (76-59) 12 14 0
W: Gomber (5-0) L: Bailey (1-13) S: ()
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Homer Bailey allowing a 2-RBI double to Cardinals starting pitcher Austin Gomber with 2 outs in the 2nd inning, tying the game at 2. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 19.9% (from 66.4% to 46.6%).

Positives

Scott Schebler tore the cover off the ball tonight. Schebler’s exit velocity in his first 4 AB’s tonight: 111.1, 105.4, 105.4, 108.8. He was 3 for 5 with a homer and a double.

Joey Votto had two hits and a walk. He was 0 for 5 in his return to the Reds lineup yesterday.

Scooter Gennett remained hot, collecting 3 more hits. Gennett entered play today hitting .389/.424/.593 over the past 14 games.

Matt Wisler made his Reds debut, and he equipped himself very well: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K.

Negatives

Homer Bailey: 5.0 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 2 HR, 3 BB, 7.56 FIP

Jackson Stephens got beat around even more than Homer:  0.2 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 2BB, 0 K

Not so random thoughts………

The Reds don’t have to do anything rash like DFA Bailey. That might excite some of the fan base, but it wouldn’t be responsible. They should use the last four weeks of the season to try him in the bullpen, and again next Spring. If there is no value whatsoever, then you can cut ties. But you are paying him $28 million either way, so at least due your due diligence. Maybe you’ll get lucky and Bailey won’t want to pitch in the bullpen and will retire or work out a buyout.

Up Next:

Reds at Cardinals
Friday, 7:15 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Luis Castillo (5.07 ERA/3.88 xFIP) vs Daniel Poncedeleon (2.08 ERA/5.00 xFIP)