The subheading of today’s column doesn’t refer to the state of the Reds so much as it refers to the progress of this well-meaning series. I’ve taken a few weeks off, as you may or may not be aware, depending on your devotion to my particular kind of ramblings. Not much has happened. The pitching is still a mess, of course. So much so, that I don’t really know what to say about it except that I hope the Reds have some kind of actual rotation next year (I do think they’ll go get someone).

Further, once everyone is healthy, the lineup is, more or less, set.

The only place where there is still at least some debate is at second base. I can’t pretend to be aware of what the Reds will do there. I have my own opinions, which are documented, but lest I be ruthlessly attacked in the comments (<—I am kidding, mostly), I’ll state them here:

  1. Nick Senzel is going to be an all-star
  2. Scooter Gennett is a good hitter who is likely to decline
  3. Dilson Herrera is good enough to start for most teams and could also make an all-star game or two.

So there. Take me to task for those if you want.

But my opinions aren’t entirely what this column is about. I like to run polls and so, let’s see what the polls told us.

I was at least a little surprised by these results. I won’t say that people have turned on Gennett, but I don’t think the results would have been very like this a couple of months ago. I suppose some marginal arguments could be made that we have more information now or something, but, really, the predictable thing happened. He regressed. He had the best month of his life and a bunch of other months that you’d more or less have predicted at the beginning of season.

Anyway, it’s not a rout, but it seems like, if there’s only room for two of these guys, it’s Senzel starting and Dilson on the bench with Scooter shipped elsewhere. I do really think that’s a best plan. If we assume that the Reds have limited resources, then where they spend those resources matters a lot. They need to improve the most in the starting rotation. They have a player ready who should provide (more than) comparable value, for a much lower salary to the all-star second baseman who is about to get expensive AND is in his peak season right now.

I’ve got at least a few more of these left in me before the season is over, if there’s anything you’d like to see polled on the RN account, let me know and I might use it.

7 Responses

  1. Sliotar

    Since the column has returned and the polling continues, I think an interesting question would be something like, “Assuming Senzel becomes an All-Star, at which position will it occur?”

    2B
    SS
    3B
    OF

    I think Twitter allows 4 choices, right?

    I visit people’s accounts sometimes, but I stay off social media.

  2. BigRedMike

    Great article. The situation with Gennett is really not that complicated. Teams like the Reds that lose 90 games each year make it complicated.

    Teams similar to the Reds in payroll and market would rarely consider signing a player like Gennett if they have two cost controlled younger players that play the same position.

    • roger garrett

      Great post.Simple to all but those that matter.Cards are rolling without their starting outfield from a year ago.

  3. Rich H

    Think you hit the nail on the head Jason.

  4. Scottya

    The Oakland A’s success (again) this season, has struck my interest.

    The Oakland A’s starting rotation:
    FIP
    1. 4.29
    2. 4.79
    3. 3.10 Trevor Cahill 1 year 1.5 million dollar contract
    4. 4.66
    5. 4.23 Brett Anderson 1 year 1.8 million dollar contract
    6. 3.80

    The A’s are winning with a starting pitching staff that is more than 40% older sp’s that not many other teams wanted.

    I’m of the opinion that the way the free agent market has evolved, that signing free agent’s to fill #3, #4 and a #5 pitcher is a really smart move for any organization.

    Here is a list of many of the free agent SP’s available this offseason:
    1. hyun-jin ryu
    2. Clay Bucholz
    3. Trevor Cahill
    4. Jeremy Hellickson
    5. Nathan Eovaldi
    6. Brett Anderson
    7. Matt Harvey
    8. Garrett Richards
    9. Gio Gonzalez

    Possible #2 starters
    1. Patrick Corbin
    2. JA Happ
    3. Dallas Keuchal
    4. Charlie Morton

    Fast track to playoff contention is doable it seems to me.

  5. Ghettotrout1

    I agree to this thinking and also agree there is zero percent chance

  6. cfd3000

    This seems so obvious – play Senzel, keep Herrera, trade Gennett – that I’m sure it will never happen. The “I like Scooter” argument, or the “he’s an all star” argument, or the “he hit four home runs in one game” argument, or the “he’s a Cincinnati guy” argument are all silly. I like Scooter, but I also like Bronson Arroyo. Want him back? Scooter was an all star this year. Duvall was last year. Want him back? Senzel is a professional hitter and will thrive at the major league level. And he’s a very good defensive player, unlike Scooter. And he’s younger, cheaper, and team controlled for at least 6 years. No. Brainer. Trade Scooter. Play Nick.