Homer Bailey shocked the baseball world when he put together an outstanding performance against the St. Louis Cardinals. Bailey pitched into the 7th inning, allowing just two runs, while striking out eight batters.

There was one major problem, and it was déjà vu in the Queen City.

For an unfathomable second consecutive night, the Cardinals starting pitcher, who was making their starting pitching debut in the big leagues, took a no-hitter late into the game against the Reds. Tonight it was lefty Austin Gomber, who took a no-hitter into the 7th inning.

Joey Votto ended the no-hitter with a single. Eugenio Suarez decided to play hero ball again, and deposited an 83 MPH pitch into the left field seats to tie the game at two.

The game would go into extra innings. The Reds missed a golden opportunity in the bottom of the 10th, highlighted by a controversial bunt attempt called on by Jim Riggleman (more on that below). The Cardinals made the Reds pay as Dexter Fowler hit a two-run home run off Amir Garrett in the top of the 11th inning. The Reds hitters made Bud Norris work in the bottom of the 11th, but he was able to get the Cardinals out alive.

Final/11 innings R H E
Cincinnati Reds (44-57) 2 5 0
St. Louis Cardinals (51-50) 4 8 1
W: Tuivailala (3-3) L: Garrett (0-2) S: Norris (19)
FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

Biggest Play of the Game

According to Fangraphs WPA statistic (winning percentage added), the most important play of the game was Amir Garrett allowing a 2-run home run with 1 out in the top of the 11th inning, giving the Cardinals a 4-2 lead. That play decreased the Reds chances of winning by 48.8% (from 50.0% to 8.6%).

Player of the Game

David Dewit “Homer” Bailey Jr: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 0 HR, 2 R, 2 BB, 8 K, 1.66 FIP

Homer Bailey was absolutely incredible in his return to the Reds rotation. It might not mean anything for Bailey going forward, but it was vintage Bailey tonight. His fastball velocity reached 96 MPH, and he was able to make good pitches which kept the ball in the park. The Cardinals only had 4 balls hit that had greater than a 50% hit probability off Bailey.


The word “Suarez” is now a curse word in the city of St. Louis, Missouri. How about Eugenio Suarez? He further cemented his NL MVP campaign with another massive two-run home run in the 7th inning.

Joey Votto broke up Austin Gomber’s no-hitter with a single in the 7th inning.

Billy Hamilton had a hit, and made a couple nice catches this evening.

Raisel Iglesias pitched two scoreless innings, striking out two.


The Reds offense has had some pretty big moments over the last two nights, but overall they have really struggled so far in the second half. The Reds were no-hit by a Cardinals pitcher making their first MLB start for a combined 13.1 innings. The Reds have failed to score more than 2 runs in five straight games for the first time since 2014. Get well soon Scott Schebler?

Scooter Gennett has had some tough luck the last two nights. Yesterday, he missed a game-tying home run foul by a few feet in the 9th inning. Tonight, had a flyout with an exit velocity of 101.6 MPH and an 85% hit probability. Gennett has yet to record a hit in the second half (0 for 14).

Not so random thoughts……..

Here I am for a second straight night having to defend Jim Riggleman (I feel dirty). Riggleman decided to have Curt Casali bunt in the bottom of the 10th inning in a tie game with runners on 1st & 2nd with 0 outs. The Cardinals third baseman, Yairo Munoz, made an incredible play to throw out Adam Duvall on a solid bunt from Casali. The Reds would end up not scoring in the inning. I am all against sacrifice bunting 99% of the time. This is the 1% that it is OK.

Chances of scoring one run:

0 outs, runners on 1st & 2nd: 61%
1 out, runners on 2nd & 3rd: 68%

Yes, that is not factoring in the possibility of an unsuccessful bunt, but you see the reward of a successful bunt there. Curt Casali has as many GIDP’s as HR, so you also have to factor that and the possibility of the Cardinals throwing the ball away. It was certainly a defensible move to bunt there. You just have to tip your cap to Munoz.

Up Next:

Cardinals at Reds
Wednesday, 12:35 PM
TV: FOX Sports Ohio
Sal Romano (5.19 ERA) vs Jack Flaherty (3.15 ERA)


Photos are used courtesy of the Cincinnati Enquirer and Kareem Elgazzar, and are used by permission. All statistics are used courtesy of Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and ESPN Stats & Info.

64 Responses

  1. J

    “Yes, that is not factoring in the possibility of an unsuccessful bunt, but you see the reward of a successful bunt there….”

    First of all, as we’ve seen time and time and time and time and time again, the possibility of an unsuccessful bunt is quite significant, even for the guys who are supposed to be good at it, and even when you have speedier guys on base than Duvall. So that is a HUGE flaw in the argument. Second of all, those figures you cite are generic. They don’t factor in the players coming up next. They don’t realize you’ve got one of the worst hitters in baseball coming up soon. If the bunt had been successful, the Reds would have wound up with Billy Hamilton at the plate with the bases loaded and one out. (Dixon could theoretically have pinch hit, but I doubt he would have.) Does it feel like a 61% the Reds score in that situation, given the quality of the opposing pitcher? Hint: No. I don’t know the actual number, of course, but it feels well under 50%. And that’s the scenario IF we assume the bunt is successful. If it’s unsuccessful, which, to put it mildly, is far from a sure thing.

    • J

      …then the odds are obviously even lower.

    • Sliotar


      Spot on.

      Context is everything and no, it was not the right play to bunt, as it virtually never is.

      Two related points … the next hitter became Barnhart, all of 8 for 51 this month. And, this team is horrible at bunting and everyone (including the players, I would surely assume) knows it.

      If you want to get rid of the loser mindset that has infected the Reds from top (“we will spend if you show to games in the second half”) to the (hopefully interim) manager, start with trusting the players to put the ball in play.

      • Jim Walker

        Said elsewhere here it was ominous that Winker did not take either the Casali or pitcher’s spot AB. His shoulder must be barking pretty loudly. Noticed early that Thom of ThinkPitch mentioned to note whether SWinker was not used in an obvious situation as a gauge has to whether his shoulder might be worse than admitted. Wondered at the time if they knew or strongly suspected something they weren’t comfortable saying more directly up front.

      • Jim Walker

        And excuse my multiple fat finger errors. Note to myself: put some glasses on if I am going to type more than a sentence or 2 and don’t trust auto spell and correct.

      • VaRedsFan

        Thom also mentioned the Winker has been having shoulder problems all year, which is news to me. His dive to get out of the way of the hit the other night, looked eerily similar to Ryan Ludwick’s injury

      • J

        And it’s not like the Reds had a terrible hitter at the plate. It was a guy who looks like he knows what he’s doing and has a decent chance of hitting the ball hard. And presumably the Reds didn’t trade for Casali because he knows how to bunt. What a great chance to give a backup an opportunity to be the hero. But no, let’s say to him “we don’t think you can win a game for us,” and then ultimately wind up (if he manages gets the bunt down) with all the pressure on Hamilton to drive in an average-speed guy from third. It’s bad strategy statistically, and it takes away one of the few chances Casali will have to be the guy getting mobbed at the end of a game. Just a dumb decision in every possible way.

      • Nick Kirby

        Lol, Curt Casali is not a good hitter.

      • greenmtred

        It really looks as though a double stancard is being applied here. It’s bad to sacrifice bunt because the probability percentage says it is, but in this case, we’ll ignore the percentages and stick with our opinion.

      • VaRedsFan

        Casali has been asked to sacrifice once this year, and laid down a perfect bunt.

      • Jim Walker

        And the bunt he put down last night was well nigh to perfect too; just not good enough to beat an all in trap.

      • Shchi Cossack

        Jim, that’s really the significant issue with this particular bunt scenario, it was an ‘all-in’ trap. The Birds weren’t disguising the trap. Everyone in the stadium and everyone watching on TV saw exactly how the situation was being played defensively. It was a suicide bunt. Even a ‘well nigh perfect’ bunt was doomed to fail, and it did.

      • Shchi Cossack

        With the defense being deployed, there was absolutely no IF defense available, except against a bunt. The SS was beating feet in a full out run to cover 3B. The 2B was beating feet in a full out run to cover 1B. The 3B & 1B were fully committed to charging the bunt. The pitcher was covering the bunt. The entire IF was wide open, except the 20 feet radius from home plate.

        The Birds confirmed several times that Riggleman was fully committed to the bunt by throwing to bases and a 1st pitch to the plate that was unhittable. The Birds knew that any attempt to hit that wasn’t a bunt had a very high probability of winning the game, but they were confident that Riggleman would not eschew his absolute commitment to the bunt. the Reds were out-coached again.

    • greenmtred

      The possibility of an unsuccessful bunt is significant, yes, but so is the possibility of a double play or a pop-up which doesn’t advance the runners. The probability percentages don’t factor in the specific players in any case.

      • Nick Kirby

        Thank you. I hate that I am even defending a sac bunt, but criticizing Riggleman for THIS bunt, is just silly.

      • Scott C

        Grumble. Grumble. Grumble. I hate to admit it but you are right. Hats off to Munoz for a great play, if he had taken a half a second more we might be celebrating a win.

      • MrRed

        Very, very true, Green. But the probability percentages are just one data point. Hopefully, the manager is considering more than just that. Casali is not THAT bad of a hitter and taking the bat out of his hands and putting it in BH’s hands is a risky strategy. Should there be harsh criticism? No, I don’t think so but it is definitely a questionable decision.

      • Streamer88

        Everyone seems to be overlooking an outcome in the other direction. You bunt against the worst fielding team in MLB history and the ball is booted and you end up with bases loaded and no outs. Or with a run in if there’s a throwing error.

        I hate many of Rigglemans decisions, but I agree with OP, not this one.

  2. Jeff Morris

    Garrett going through growning pains. No sure how W Peralta doing in AAA Louisville. Reds really need to find a reliable outfielder, who can hit for average. Hamilton won’t work, and it looks like Duvall won’t work, unless the Reds want to give Duvall another year to try?? Winker gets on base, but doesn’t have power. Schebler is going great, and unfortuntely is hurt. If the Reds want to move up in the standings, they are going to have to probably pay money to get a good outfielder. Just like the Cardinals paid to get Fowler. Otherwise, they are going to be stuck in last place this year, and probably next year.

    • J

      Winker has 14 HR in 471 major league plate appearances. That pace puts him at about 20 or 21 per season if he’s hitting near the top of the order. It’s not elite power, but his OPS is elite. In fact, he’s 28th in the national league in OPS right now, and he still hasn’t played a full season in the majors. One thing we shouldn’t be worrying about is Winker’s hitting.

      • Colorado Red

        If he can keep up the 400 OBA, and hit 20 HRs a year, that is really good.
        I would take that and be happy.

    • Jim Walker

      Or maybe pay the piper to extend Scooter or alternately put Herrera at 2B and make Nick Senzel that OF guy.

    • jim t

      Fowler has been terrible this year. No where near worth the money he was paid. If the reds won’t to improve they need to find good consistent starting pitching. Scoring runs has not been the issue.

    • Scott C

      Winker has enough power, maybe not Duvall or Suarez power, but he is still young and his OBP is elite. Give me an OBP guys with some power over a guy hitting around 200 with good power.

  3. Jim Walker

    I thought it was ominous we didn’t see Winker take the 1 out AB in the 9th. Keep a close watch on his shoulder situation. Not even sure who next man up would he at this point. Believe they’d have to go down to AA and call up Jose Siri to get an OF who is on the 40 man. I think no way is Siri ready even for a short emergency stint.

    Also they really missed Blandino tonight. He would have been ideal to have at the plate in Casali’s spot in the 9th. Bat manipulator. Much harder to double up. Cards would have really been gambling even more to sell out like they did to get the out at 3B if Blandino had been batting.

    Herrera would have also been a good choice there. hard to fault using him as a PH in the 8th but if the coin would have come Dixon there, Herrera would have been good in the 9th.

  4. Sliotar

    Your points about Winker are well made.

    Which, if true, makes it more curious that Lorenzen did not bat for himself in the 8th and was instead lifted for Herrera.

    Might need Herrera later on, and wouldn’t Lorenzen be the better pick for a HR in that spot, 2-2 game with 1 out and Hamilton and Peraza to follow?

    But, then again, I was surprised Bailey got rolled back out for the 7th, going to 115 pitches coming off injury and seeing the rest of the Cardinals lineup for a 3rd time.

    The Reds need talent upgrades to get into the mix in the division, but nights like this remind me that when the team does have better horses, I sure don’t want Riggleman as the jockey.

    • Jim Walker

      Oh my. I was in and out a bit and missed that Herrera was hitting for Lorenzen, I figured somebody else had pitched the 8th. Definitely that was a waste not letting Lorenzen bat.

      And in regard to Bailey going 6.2 innings and throwing as many pitches as he did coming off “rehab”. To me, that again speaks to the lack of confidence Riggleman showed in Castillo on Monday pulling him at 85 pitches or so and only 5.1 innings when he had allowed just 1 run and 4 hits. I’m not saying Riggleman made a poor move there because that was an important game for them to win after being swept by the Pirates. I’m just saying Castillo is hardly being treated like the future staff leader. And he isn’t really all that young anymore, at 25 years 7 and a half months, to be receiving kid glove treatment.

  5. Broseph

    Don’t look now, but Gennett is hitting around .250 over the past month of baseball and his trade value is basically non-existent with his regression. Duvall isn’t panning out. Billy is the same as last year and the year before that and the year before that and so on.

    Yet, here this team is talking extensions and keeping .200 hitting players forever. If nothing happens over the next week with trades, count 2019 as another “rebuild/retool/revamp/refresh” season.

    Nice night by Homer.

    • Indy Red Man

      Scooter will be fine! He just missed HRs both games in this series.

      • VaRedsFan

        Actually, it was 3. Two of them just foul, and the deep shot to center

      • Broseph

        I’ll give you that. He missed his third homerun last night, all 325ft of it down the line. I can hit a softball 325ft

        His exit velocity and homerun distance is below league average. He’s not hitting Suarez homeruns, and is a small stature player passing the prime of his career.

        How much will he help when this team is somewhat competitive in 2020? He does nothing for the next winning Reds team, that the argument everyone is making

        If he stays, I hope I’m wrong, but don’t count on it

      • Indy Red Man

        Scooter just turned 28? Bregman from the Stros keeps barely hitting them over the fence. I’m pretty sure they count the same!

    • VaRedsFan

      Scooter doesn’t need to have trade value, because he is not being traded, as per Jim Bowden quoting John Farrell.
      I’ve said all along, if you want a great pitcher, trade the prospects.

  6. Mike C

    To be fair, Herrera probably doesn’t get hit by a pitch if he doesn’t bunt (an even more questionable call with Duvall at 1st with no outs), but it’s easy to forget that. I didn’t like the bunt call with Duvall on second, but Duvall has to run the bases better. Poor leads and secondary jumps when no one is going to be covering second after Casali squares to bunt. Though it was a nice play, he still should have beat the throw.

    I agree with J though on the fact that you’re likely getting BHam with the bases loaded. Swing away with Casali and then you still have a pinch hitter or two if you bat for Hamilton as well.

    • Jim Walker

      I agree Duvall did not appear to play it well from what we could on TV. When the Cards 2B sold out to break for 1st, AD should have gotten as big of a secondary lead as he could have. It looked like he could have been 1/3 of the way to 3B before the ball was bunted because there was nobody going to beat him back to the 2B bag from that distance unless it was the CF charging in full bore on the pitch.

      Duvall is typically an aggressive and sharp baserunner. Maybe there was a mix up between he and Hatcher over whether the 2B had released and broken for 1B??

    • VaRedsFan

      Agree about the secondary lead, but FWIW, the Cards were playing close attention to him at 2nd…several pickoff moves.

      • Jim Walker

        Yes they were holding Duvall very tightly but once the 2B broke for 1st there was nobody at home to cover 2B because the SS was making for 3B.

        Generally in those situations, the runner is responsible for watching the defender in front of him, the SS; and the 3B coach is reading the defender behind the runner, the 2B.

        So the Reds should have had some way for Hatcher to let Duvall know when his backside was wide open. Maybe Hatcher did and Duvall failed to exploit it fully. Maybe Hatcher didn’t or maybe Duvall missed the indication.

        However it happened, if a team insists on bunting into the teeth of an all in trap like the Cards were setting, they’ve got to get that man at 2B further off the bag once 2B becomes uncovered.

      • Mike C

        Duvall has to read that on his own. 1st and 3rd are crashing on the square which leaves 2nd wide open on the pitch. You make sure before the pitch that CF isn’t lurking.

      • Jim Walker

        Agree a runner is ultimately responsible for himself; but, the 3B coach needs to make sure he knows when the 2B has released.

      • Mike C

        They simply wanted to keep him close so that they could get the force out. Of course you’re going to hold the runner on in that situation, but Duvall’s lead and more importantly his secondary jumps were way too conservative. Even Yadi’s pump fake back to second is meant to keep him close on the next pitch. I can’t think of a better catcher to have behind the dish in that type of situation.

  7. Wayne Nabors

    3 run homers will win more games than a bunt ever will,but riggleman will never know cause he refuses to try,will always bunt,no exception

    • Jeff Reed

      Game tied, extra innings, runner in scoring position with no outs: you swing away, period. At that point I don’t care how much a statistic might favor a bunt. Yes, Casali and Hamilton are weak hitters but so what? Even weak hitters sometimes come through. Buntitis, which the interim manager has, will never get the Reds on the way to contention. Riggleman is not the manager for the future.

  8. El Hermano Brother

    The offense is basically relying upon 4 players: Votto, Gennett, Suarez & Winker. The other 4 position players are just very inconsistent, to say the least (Tucker, Peraza, Duvall & Hamilton). Additionally, Votto and Gennett are going thru a slump now.

  9. Siri's SidePiece

    Losing is part of the game but I hate losing when it’s caused by decisions made from the dugout.

    I felt like a huge error was not walking Munoz to get to Gomber. Munoz then smoked a flat splitter into the gap. Pretty sure the Cards manager anticipated the INT walk coming to Munoz so he flashed a pinch hitter to the On Deck circle.

    Much rather pitch to Gomber with runners at 1st and 2nd and 2 outs, than Munoz with a guy at 2nd and 2 outs.. If he pinch hits for him, you still win because you forced them to end the no hitter attempt at 79 pitches.

    Granted, we ended up getting to him but at that point, Gomber looked like Kershaw and Riggs should have forced their hand.

  10. sezwhom

    Nick, politely disagree on Casali bunting in the 10th. IT NEVER WORKS! I get it, he’s a catcher, stay out of the DP but it never works. STOP IT! Let him swing away. Riggleman, like Price, bunt happy. You’d think they’d figure it out by now.

  11. Indy Red Man

    Homer was great! They can win with that. Of course the question is what will he have next time? Disco had really good stuff at gabp vs Milw in the game that Garrett got beat by Thames. He had good stuff vs Cleveland, but has been mostly ragged in the other games. If they can both pull off #3-#4 status next year then their rotation looks alot better!

    Lorenzen now with 34.2 ip and NO hrs allowed! How many guys could pull that off in gabp? He needs to start. BobSteve needs a chance. Trade Harvey and send Romano back down.

    Great to see Iggy at 98 mph too! He’s virtually unhittable by righties with that velocity! I’m ok with trading him, but it seems like the returns haven’t been great except for the guy SD got for Hand.

    Finally….Oakland was down 10-2 after 6 and rallied to win! They’re on fire! They seem like a great landing spot for Harvey! Big park and good bullpen. It gets cold out there earlier and the scores will go down. Billy could help them too! Set him free already. I’ve had enough! That at-bat after Casili & Homer walked was as pathetic as I’ve seen all year!

    • Colorado Red

      Big question, is can he repeat it consistently.
      No, I do not expect him to be an ace, never did.
      But if he can provide quality starts, who knows.
      I am a optimist today, who knows after the next start.
      Need to make a run next year, so I do not have to listen to all the Rockies fans talking playoffs.

  12. big5ed

    Joey Votto has a .688 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, good for 7th among the Reds 9 “regulars.” He tops only Billy Hamilton at .661 and Jose Peraza at .619. When your production (with baserunning) pretty much is the same as Billy Hamilton’s, there is an issue. It is not a small sample size issue, either; Votto looks awful against lefties.

    Yesterday’s lineup made no sense to me. Scooter was sick Monday; they faced a lefty on Tuesday and a righty on Wednesday afternoon. Play Herrera against the lefty, and give Scooter another day to recover, when he can go against a righty. And bite the bullet and admit that Votto is not a 3-hole hitter against lefties anymore. If anything, for the same reason noted about Gennett, give Votto the day off and play Brandon Dixon at first.

    We will see if Homer Bailey can reproduce his effort from last night. His body language was excellent. I thought he was ready to cash it in and go home, but I was wrong. We all should have realized that you don’t get as far as Bailey has without being a competitor at heart. Maybe his arm won’t hold up, but the story about his going to the pitching coach in Oklahoma, with Darwin’s blessing, tells you that he is willing to work to find the answer.

    • VaRedsFan

      Scooter bats about .300 vs. lefties. OPS .800

  13. GreatRedLegsFan

    The offensive is basically relying upon 4 hitters: Votto, Gennett, Suarez & Winker. The other 4 position players are just very inconsistent, to say the least (Tucker, Peraza, Duvall & Hamilton). Additionally, Votto and Gennett are going thru a slump now.

  14. VaRedsFan

    Tucker batted after Casali. Casali has attempted 1 sac bunt previously this year and made a perfect bunt.

  15. Gonzo Reds

    I think another positive was Herrera’s defense plays, made several that Winker would have not gotten to out there…

    If you wonder what we might get back for Iggy, take a look at what the Yanks gave the Orioles for Zack Britton, probably the best RP that was available. True team control for Iggy would up the price a bit but don’t think in general will get much for any player we’re thinking of dumping this year for prospects or another SP. Think we’ll have to pay up in the off season for a #1 or #2 SP if we want to compete for a wild card in 2019.

    • Jim Walker

      Guessing Ervin and Herrera got crossed in the reference to the plays made. I agree. For that matter Ervin looks more than capable of playing a better RF or CF than Schebler. He is starting to look more comfortable all around. It is amazing the difference it makes when a guy gets some playing time.

      The guy was a natural first round choice, #27 overall, which is 20+ spots ahead of where Winker was chosen as a 1st round supplemental a year ahead of him. He’s basically a year older than Winker because he came through college versus high school; but; is also a year younger than Schebler. Give him a chance to show his stuff.

  16. roger garrett

    The bunt or not to bunt is magnified because we haven’t hit in the last 5 games.Scooter is 0 for 15 and Votto has a couple of singles while others have returned to where they pretty much are going to be and have been.Billy,Adam,Tucker and until recently Peraza are what their numbers say they are and us wanting it to change won’t make it happen.Without Suarez in the last 5 games we would be 0-5 having scored only 9 runs in our home park where pop ups become homers.Sure Scott and Winker didn’t play but they don’t play every game any way.For us to win at home we have to out slug people and this team can’t do it.Our staff and any staff is going to give up a bunch of first row wall scraper home runs in this park.A real power hitter would hit 40 homers here just by accident and we can talk all day long about speed and defense but if you can’t score you can’ win

  17. RedsFanEd

    Giving away outs is stupid with the bottom of the order coming behind it. You can’t rely on enough contact to leave the infield
    I do not understand the infatuation with Duval. I am truly sick of his name in the line up.
    The only thing I can figure is that they are trying to showcase him for a trade, He sucks so bad that it’s having the reverse effect. I can live with Billy for the defense but Duval can’t hit a curveball and cant catch up to a fastball unless it;s teed up. Give it up already, he has no place in the future of this team. It’s time to look at Dixon and others.

  18. Bob Purkey

    Maybe Homer has another good outing before the deadline and the Reds can get someone to take him, if they pay 2/3 of his salary this year and next?(Laugh track inserted here) Maybe get a bucket of BP balls in return.

    • Jim Walker

      Some of us were entertaining ourselves with similar discussion over on Twitter. How good would Homer have to be the rest of this season for somebody to be willing to take half the remaining ticket ($14M with buyout included) in the off season; and, if he were that good should the Reds just keep him instead? Like you said, just for fun, Nobody saw that really happening. 😉

      We did sort of believe though that if by some chance Homer was around and pitching at a #4/5 level this time next year, somebody might take the buyout ($5M) if the Reds kept his remaining 2019 salary. That would be an interesting decision but still pretty far fetched.

  19. TyGuy85

    Another deal being made for a pitcher – TB trade Eovaldi to Boston. Plenty of high-end bullpen guys also traded already. Continually losing trade partners by the day.

  20. Mr. November

    I don’t blame this L on Riggleman because the team isn’t hitting right now, but I don’t think your math is correct on the bunting odds, even when only going for 1 game-ending run. This appears to be the most comprehensive data table of MLB results/odds:


    There are too many variables for me to come up with exact odds of the many things that can happen in any given AB. But runners on 12 with 0 out is .636 odds of at least 1 run; runners on 23 with 1 out is .686 odds of at least 1 run; and runners on 12 with 1 out is .425 odds of at least 1 run. Mlb Sac bunting success is approx 75% (although this seems very high for the Reds by my “eye-test” this year). So, if successful (75%) you’ve increased odds by 5%; but if unsuccessful (25%) you’ve decreased odds by 21%. I’m not a statistician, but the net odds would appear to be less than .636 (i.e., where you started), so I don’t know why you’d give up the out. If anyone has more specific odds/variables, I’d love to see them. And, if Riggleman (or anyone in the FO) has ever been asked to comment on these odds, I’d love to know the thought process. I don’t know the Reds statistics this year of “success” in sac bunting, but I don’t recall it working out well for them…

  21. David

    There are way to many variables to decide to bunt or not based on overall success/failure for specific scenarios. Can the batter actually bunt? Is the runner at second a good base runner? How good is the pitcher/infielders at handling bunts? How good is the pitcher and who is on deck for the hitting team. That doesn’t even take into consideration timing (late or early innings, top or bottom of inning) or how good is your bench. Do you have the depth to win a long extra inning game or are you running short and need to try to end early.

    To say bunting never is the right thing to do based on experience or on the odds is too simplistic. Use every tool in your tool box.

  22. Bill j

    Are we forgetting BC loves BHam & may have ordered the bunt so BHam could try to win the game.

    • greenmtred

      Not a thought I would seriously entertain, so I wouldn’t be likely to forget it.