For your weekend enjoyment: updated xwOBA numbers for the Reds. Remember that xwOBA measures (methodology) the actual quality of contact that batters have made this year, getting credit for walks and dings for strikeouts. It’s based on data collected by StatCast on every play in every game. In a nutshell, these are expected (x) outcomes based on the way balls were actually hit, weighted (w) by typical run contribution. 

How reliable of an indicator is xwOBA? The top seven batters in MLB by xwOBA are Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, JD Martinez, Freddie Freeman, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper and some Canadian. 

If you set the bar at 150 plate appearances, 213 major league players qualify. That’s about seven players per team, including nine Reds. The median batter (#107) is Ryan Braun, with xwOBA of .349. 

A few other names of note, not all of whom have 150 PA:

  • Edwin Encarnacion .379
  • Yonder Alonso .379
  • Yasmani Grandal .377
  • Shin-Soo Choo .379
  • Todd Frazier .369
  • Jay Bruce .344
  • Devin Mesoraco 343
  • Didi Gregorious .322
  • Zack Cozart .311
  • Christian Yelich .388
  • Brandon Nimmo .404

10 Responses

  1. LittleRedMachineIThinkICan

    Winker getting shafted

  2. redsfan06

    Only two hitters worse than Billy? I just do not believe his defense makes up for his hitting. It would be great to see the Reds prove me wrong by benching him for awhile and letting the other three man the outfield.

    • Keith

      It’s really pretty incredible that 2 people in MLB are worse than him. I pity those fans that have to watch that.

  3. da bear

    Easily Suarez. Wasn’t coincidence the Reds stunk while he was hurt. This xwOBA thingie probably overweights walks to the positive and underweights strikeouts toward the negative. Otherwise how does one explain Votto’s high ranking (BB’s favoritism) and the same for Duvall and Schebler (not enough downgrading for K’s).

    I can easily pick two dozen hitters bringing more value to their team this 2018 season than Votto, starting with Suarez. And Didi, despite his atrocious May.

    Meanwhile Duvall and Schebler are no better than 4th outfielders on any decent MLB team. Good people, just not good enough players.

    • da bear

      Caught the other 6 guys and they are legit. Be real – has Joey meant more to the Reds offensive success than Haniger (sp?) of Seattle? Castellanos of Detroit? Cubs’ Bryant or Baez?

      I like Joey. But I’m not much into hero worshipping. I’m not going to overvalue his greatness. He will be in the hall of fame. Just looking at 2018. He hasn’t produced efficiently this year. Struck out looking with the bases loaded a couple times on three or four pitches without swinging once. Those aren’t isolated incidences.

      To maximize Votto’s value Reds should bump him up to second, enhance the usefulness of his OBP, to clog the bases for Suarez and Scooter, maybe Barnhardt too, so he can score….because he isn’t bringing the runs home.

  4. Sliotar

    Steve,

    Great job, as usual, in parsing out easily the context of a statistic.

    Whenever I read that ranking of Reds players, I think…it would be a top ranking offense…in the 80s. Or, even the 90s.

    In 2018, an at-bat is very much 3 outcome (K, BB, HR).

    Reds are 28th in isolated power, 25th in HRs, 23rd in wRC+, middle of the road in BABIP….and tied for lead in MLB in sacrifice hits (sadly).

    Oh, to have an Adam Dunn in the middle of this lineup.

  5. Travis McClung

    What does this all mean? If our pitching was better are we an above average team? Why can’t Billy be the fourth outfielder and pinch run and be a defensive replacement every game? Treat him like everyday is the playoffs and make him lay down 100 bunts a day.

  6. james garrett

    One of these days we won’t be talking about how terrible Billy and Peraza are at the plate.Still not sure how or why Peraza doesn’t hit more balls harder then he does.It is just puzzling because he has some pop but he either believes he is just a dinker or a dunker or somebody told him he is.In this day of the strikeouts don’t matter he has the same approach on every pitch as if he is just trying to put it in play.He is very aggressive but yet he takes a defensive swing.Some guys are all or nothing hitters but he is just nothing and nothing.Hard to figure.