This week’s respondents are Bill Lack, Nick Carrington, Jim Walker, Wes Jenkins, and Jeff Gangloff.

Our Weekly Reds Obsession: Will Jose Peraza or Scott Schebler be a member of the next good Reds team, and if so, in what role?

Bill Lack: I honestly have no idea. I believed that the Reds were closer to the next good team than they are, apparently, and I’m dumbfounded by how bad this team has been thus far this year. If they don’t take a step-forward this year, the whole theory/philosophy of this rebuild has to be questioned and then, who knows when the next good Reds team will be?

To answer the question, I’d say “no”. I don’t think either will be here in 2-3 years (and that’s making major assumptions). I think they’ll likely both be traded for portions of the “next” wave of young players to believe in. I think Schebler will be traded off because he has some value (not because there’s a ton of talent pushing him in the minor league outfield slots) and Peraza will be traded off as part of a larger deal (because he’s never gotten any better than he is now, at age 24, and there are possible replacements at SS/2B coming up behind him).

I hope I’m wrong and they begin to play much better baseball this season and we see progress, so they can be competitive for a playoff spot in ’19 or maybe ’20; but you have to really be wearing some “Rose”-colored glasses to think that right now.

Nick Carrington: Both Schebler and Peraza will likely be part of the next good Reds team, but I’m far more confident that Schebler will be a starter. He has reduced his strikeout rate so far this year and has shown hulk-like power in the past (.252 ISO in 2017). Schebler is also deceptively fast, maybe a tad quicker than Peraza who is known for his speed. If not for an injury last season, his solid numbers look better, and I think he improves on the margins for the next 2-3 years.

Peraza has some skill with the bat, and he has hit the ball harder so far this year. There’s hope there. But he has the most risky profile of any position player the Reds have. He has very little power or ability to take a walk. That puts a ton of pressure on him to hit for a high batting average. A little bad luck and he becomes unplayable offensively. He’s on the next Reds team, but he might be a utility guy at that point.

Jim Walker: My short answer is probably not for both. I’m guessing the next Reds team which meets my idea of good will be 2021 or 2022. If both players remain exclusively at the MLB level, they will each be out of team control at the end of 2022 unless signed to an extension beyond that date. Additionally, each could possibly become eligible for arbitration via Super 2 status as soon as the end of this season given that Peraza started 2018 with 1 year and 141 days of service time and Schebler with 1 year and 132 days. Thus, because of cost, neither is likely to be around for my next good Reds team unless as an everyday player. I doubt that in both cases, given talent in the pipeline.

Wes Jenkins: Jose Peraza has done enough to prove himself as the Reds starting shortstop, at least for the next two years. His swing has come around and he’s good enough in the field to not be a nuisance. If the next Reds manager understands that he should hit sixth or seventh and not second, then all will be well with Jose.

Scott Schebler meanwhile should be traded yesterday. I’m not sold on him sustaining this breakout for multiple years at a time, so the Reds should capitalize on his value while they can. By the time the Reds are good again, it’ll be Jesse Winker and Taylor Trammell afield – Schebler shouldn’t be counted on to be the third name.

Jeff Gangloff: I don’t think it’s out of the question that both Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler could be a member of the next winning Reds team. If I had to choose one, though, it would be Schebler. I’ve always had an affinity toward Schebs and I truly believe he could take over and hold down the left field spot for years to come. This is becoming an even bigger possibility with the continuation of Adam Duvall’s offensive woes. I love Schebler’s offensive approach and I truly believe that the more consistently he plays the better he will be. Between being injured and having to split time with other players, Schebler has never really had the chance to be “the guy”. I think it’s only a matter of time before he starts stealing playing time from Adam Duvall and hopefully that cements his role as an everyday starting outfielder.

20 Responses

  1. David

    Yes, Schebler is probably closest to a true Five Tool Player that the Reds have.

    Although we have some promising young outfielders in the system, there is no guarantee that any of them will make it to the Bigs.
    Last year, Aristides Aquino was hyped as THE NEXT BIG THING, and then had a lousy year at AA ball. This year doing much better, but still wonder what his ceiling is.

    Will Senzel EVER come up to the ML?
    And really, I would get rid of Scooter ASAP. I like Scooter as a person, and I think he is well liked and hustles for the team He is a good guy. But there is a logjam at 2nd base, and he is no gazelle (or even an antelope) in the field.

    • abado

      Where are Schebler’s 5 tools? I count 2 that are average or better: hit for power and arm strength. He carries a low batting average, his defense is bad (based on literally every defensive metric); he has foot speed but it doesn’t play (he had the same number of stolen bases as Votto last year and he has bad range in the field). You guys must be dreaming…

      BTW, Suarez is the closest to a 5 tool player because he actually has 4 good tools (hit for average & power, defense, and arm strength).

      • Jack

        Totally agree. Schebler is 27? The next good Reds team will be here in 3 or 4 years? He will be 30-31. He hasn’t even played a whole season yet.

  2. cfd3000

    Peraza almost certainly not, though maybe as a bench / utility guy. Schebler definitely yes – IF the Reds FO doesn’t decide he’s a valuable trade chip to include in a swap for some light hitting all-glove shortstop or a used to be good middle reliever. Which is to say that I think he has the talent and the contract profile but I’m not sure the front office will perceive his value. Which is odd because there have been a lot of guys over valued in recent years (looking at you Scooter and you too Billy). So really it’s just a roll of the dice. Joey, Eugenio, Tucker, Nick, Jesse, Luis, Tyler – high confidence level. Anybody else? Wild guess.

  3. eric3287

    I personally don’t see how Peraza lasts. It’s almost impossible to draw as few walks as Peraza does over the course of a season. He either knows he’s swinging at bad pitches, but thinks he can do something with them, or he has very poor pitch recognition skills. If it’s the former, theoretically he could figure out it is in his best interest to stop swinging at those bad pitches. If it’s the latter, he has no future with the Reds. There’s no reason for someone with his skill profile to be a utility guy. He would give you zero power off the bench and be a bad matchup for late inning relief pitchers. Blandino would end up being a cheaper, probably better, option.

    Schebler has a chance to stick as a 4th outfielder. Someone with powr off the bench for late inning situations, who can start at all 3 outfield positions against the occasional tough righty would be valuable for a good team.

    The better question is, will there be a next good Reds team in the next 5 years?

  4. abado

    It’s odd that so many people write Peraza off (a 24 year old SS, who was once a major prospect) and yet carry so much hope for Schebler (a 27 year old RF). Peraza has a better chance at being on the next great Reds team because he’s younger and has more potential. His path to being a productive baseball player relies on him being a good defender at a premium position, his speed, and a high batting average. Those are his strengths, and he has room and time to improve his batting average and defense further. If he improves his weaknesses too (walk rate and power) he could be great, but he doesn’t need to in order to be productive.

    Man, do people on this site love to fawn over Schebler! LOL: Schebler as a 5 tool player – are you kidding me! His strength is his power, and he maxed it out last year and was still a below average player. His path to being a good RF involves improving his weaknesses — defense, batting average, walk rate — as a player already entering his prime years. Schebler may have speed, but it doesn’t play: he had just 5 SB last year (and 3 CS) and he’s an average fielder at best. He may have 1 or 2 years as a slightly above average player in the next few years, but that’s his ceiling.

    • Jack

      I wasn’t going to say it, so thank you for saying it. The love fest for Schebler is amazing.

    • abado

      He has 2 throwing errors this year. Also, again, he’s 24, and it’s his first full year at SS in the majors. He’s got plenty of time to iron out minor wrinkles in his game.

  5. another bob in nc

    IMO members of the next good Reds team are still in middle school at best.

    • David

      That seems harsh (heh) but might very likely be true. I don’t see a path to “the next great Reds team” unless their pitching gets magically better.

  6. dougschloemer

    Don’t believe Winker will be a bench player with his stats. Best OB% of any
    Red not named Joey.

  7. Jack

    Scooter, Billy and Mez won’t be here in 2 to 3 years.

  8. Darrin

    Peraza definitely needs to walk more but he does lead the NL in hits and average among shortstops and his d has gotten much better. Scheb absolutely murders the ball, they just haven’t been finding holes. As of right now I don’t see a problem with both moving forward, and I stress, as of right now.

  9. Jeff Reed

    I’ve never been very impressed with Schebler. He has some power and speed but I would say he’s far from a 5-tool player. And with two strikes, pitchers around the league know he likes that high outside pitch that usually results in a K. Peraza is a hacker and his defense is ok, but if he’s still around when the Reds are competitive, I see him as a utility player. Chances are both players will be included in a trade(s) within the next few years.

  10. Blake Shell

    This is a question for anybody that knows a lot about xba or somebody with advanced knowledge on this stuff. Hoping somebody on here understands it better than me.

    Since the reds haven’t exactly been winning this year I’ve been trying to get more into advanced metrics like xba and some other stuff to take up time from actually watching games. I was on baseball savant and going through xba and some other stuff and saw Peraza’s xba at like 226 as of yesterday. My question is how does this stat take into account things like bunt hits. I was thinking the bunt hits might skew these numbers a little bit since bunts are obviously extremely soft contact.

    Basically just asking if the site takes these things into account and if it doesn’t is there a way for me to do it myself? I feel like I’m being kind of confusing but hoping somebody could help me out.

    • eric3287

      I believe the answer is yes and no. If I understand it right, all xBA and the other expected stats are doing is taking the launch angle and velocity of a certain batted ball and assigning the likelihood of it becoming a hit, and what kind of hit. So even a bunt has a “launch angle” and an “exit velocity” even if they are really low numbers. There is also an expected outcome of a batted ball with both the same launch angle and exit velocity. Now, it doesn’t take into account the speed of the runner, or as far as I know that a bunt was attempted. So it groups that hit in with, for instance, a lefty who check swings a dribbler down the third base line against the shift that results in a hit and with a power hitter who tops the ball, the catcher picks it up and tags him out. So, in a round about way to attempt to answer your question, no it doesn’t classify something as a bunt, yes it does register the exit velocity/launch angle of a bunt, and it probably slightly hurts a guy like Peraza’s xBA, but probably not by as much as you or I might think.

    • Ernest

      xBA appears to use Statcast information as its input. It looks at exit velocity and launch angle for each hit. Maybe if there are enough data points of the exit velocity and launch angle of a successful bunt, then it would take it into account. Good question though.

  11. Indy Red Man

    No. Not many people know this but Jocketty is 10% Okinawan and will live to be 109. He will oversee the Reds until he’s 108 including the coma years of 2041-2045. Scheber and Peraza’s grandkids might get to see the next good Reds team.

  12. Indy Red Man

    Peraza has made some great strides and I like Schebler but they need pitching to have a chance to be a part of a good team. I looked up Hunter Greene today and saw 3.21. Not bad? No wait….thats his whip. I’m left wondering if they shouldn’t have just taken the best college pitcher available? I’m not trying to be negative Nelly but where is the progress with their young guys? Can Danny Darwin help? Mahle threw a nice change-up the other night but the Reds youngsters usually don’t seem to have a handle on how to change speeds and attack hitters in/out. Peralta is another fantastic arm that seems to be regressing? Finnegan had a good 2nd half in 2016 but now he stinks. Bob Steve had a good 2nd half last year and now he can’t even get it together in AAA? The Cards bought their ace Mikolas for 15 mil/2 years. Go to Japan and see if there is anyone left like that? Go back to Cuba or Korea? Do something. Trade Iggy for a promising starting pitcher. Bring in Matt Harvey and try to turn him around.

  13. Streamer88

    Since the question is next “good” Reds team I’ll say yes to both. Schebler will be a true back up by then and Peraza either 15% better than now and starting at SS or on the bench too.

    I don’t know if I trust our front office to sell them now and reaquire new versions of their services in the future, sadly.

    I still remain convinced our strategy should be to never tank and instead try to build an 81 win team every year.

    While everyone is tanking we may luckily win 85-86 one year, catch fire and win the whole thing. We have a terrible record and yet I’m not convinced we’re any farther from this than 6 weeks ago.

    Oh and I gotta get my usual in: Finnegan needs to go. He’s a problem, not a solution.

    Go Reds!